Dive into this explosive analysis on Covert Clarity as respected economic forecaster Edward Dowd reveals his bold prediction: a massive economic boom, reminiscent of Reagan's golden era, is on the horizon once Trump's tariffs and transformative policies take full effect! In this video, we break down Dowd’s insights on how these groundbreaking measures are set to ignite unprecedented growth, boost job creation, and revive American prosperity. Discover what this means for the future of the US economy and join the conversation on whether history is about to repeat itself! Don't miss this must-watch economic deep dive! 🇺🇸📈
#TrumpEconomy #ReaganBoom #EconomicForecast #TariffImpact #EdwardDowd #USProsperity #EconomicGrowth #CovertClarity #BreakingNews #PoliticalAnalysis
#TrumpEconomy #ReaganBoom #EconomicForecast #TariffImpact #EdwardDowd #USProsperity #EconomicGrowth #CovertClarity #BreakingNews #PoliticalAnalysis
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NewsTranscript
00:00Your fantastic leadership, this amazing cabinet, and the very talented Doge team.
00:04I'm excited to announce that we anticipate savings in FY26 from reduction of waste and fraud by $150 billion.
00:12And some of it is just absurd.
00:16Like, people getting unemployment insurance who haven't been born yet.
00:19I mean, I think anyone can appreciate whether, I mean, come on.
00:22That's just crazy.
00:23And so, you know, some of these things, people ask me, like, well, how are you going to find waste and fraud in the government?
00:32I'm like, well, actually, just go in any direction.
00:34That's how you find it.
00:36It's very common.
00:39As the military would say, target rich environment.
00:45So I think we're doing a lot of good and excellent collaboration with the cabinet to achieve these savings.
00:51And it will actually result in better services for the American people.
00:55And then we're going to be spending their tax dollars in a way that is sensible and fair and good.
01:01Many of your people are fantastic.
01:03In fact, hopefully, they'll stay around for the long haul.
01:06We'd like to keep as many as we can.
01:08They're great.
01:09Smart, sharp, right?
01:11Finding things that nobody would have thought of.
01:13Very computer savvy.
01:15Yeah.
01:17By the way, I know the inside baseball.
01:19All these riffs that try to drive between Musk and Trump.
01:22Trump begs Musk to stay.
01:24There's a total bromance.
01:26They're both workaholics.
01:27They're very similar.
01:28The left trying to drive a wedge.
01:29It is preposterous.
01:30You look at the body language, too.
01:32Trump just loves Musk.
01:34All right.
01:34Edward Dowd is our guest.
01:37He's a former Wall Street professional, HSBC, BlackRock, you name it.
01:42He's worked all over Wall Street, the sell side-by-side expert in fixed income equities capital.
01:46He is on X at Dowdward and on Getter at Edward Dowd to talk about what's really happening with the trade war, the major moves there, what's happening in the markets.
01:56But he's been saying this for six months on the show, that Trump was handed a disaster if he got in, and then if he lived when he was president-elect, that he was being handed a total disaster that was papered over.
02:07All fake numbers later that all came out, the manufacturing, the jobs, all of it, and killing 200 million egg-laying hens, handing that disaster to Trump.
02:17And so can we – I mean, we're already in a recession.
02:22We're already in whatever you want to call this, stagflation to a certain extent.
02:25Can we have a soft landing?
02:27Will we just skip out of it?
02:29You know, the market was again down today.
02:31We'll put up the latest numbers there.
02:32After it bumped up yesterday, they're calling it insider trading.
02:34No, Trump said, hey, you need to buy into the market.
02:36He says that every day.
02:36But today particularly, he knew what his announcement was.
02:38He was telling everybody, hey, let's get the market up.
02:40Well, let's back down today.
02:42There's a lot of forces there because Edward Dowd predicted this, that the AI bubble was going to pop.
02:48It's been popped for a while.
02:49But, again, we don't need to be panicking and be pussies about this because long term, even midterm, we've got real positive indicators here that it's the only way to go anyways.
02:59We're going to collapse if we don't.
03:00So, Edward Dowd, thank you so much for coming on.
03:02Give us the 35,000-foot view and then drill into this for us.
03:05Yeah, absolutely.
03:06Thanks for having me on again, Alex.
03:07Look, two things.
03:09Trump inherited a stock bubble and a housing bubble.
03:13People aren't even talking about housing.
03:14We'll get into that later.
03:15The economy, the last two years, was floated by excessive government deficit spending and fraud.
03:23The elephant in the room has been legal aliens.
03:26When you bring 10 to 15 million people in with a purposeful NGO-funded operation and give them government benefits, it affects the economy.
03:35And it floated our GDP for a little bit.
03:38But, unfortunately, Trump got elected to reverse all that.
03:42So, Trump inherited an acceleration of government spending that was very temporarily supporting the economic numbers.
03:50And there was a sprinkle of fraudulent numbers in there as well.
03:53So, that's all reversing.
03:55That started reversing.
03:56I want people to understand something.
03:57That started reversing when Trump was elected.
04:00The moment he was elected, there were self-deportations.
04:03And in finance, we focus on the second derivative.
04:07Second derivative has already changed.
04:08Border encounters are down.
04:09The flow of illegals has been stopped.
04:12Some people are self-deporting.
04:14And then they're going to round up others and get rid of them.
04:16So, this is going to reverse the sugar high that we saw.
04:20I suspect we're already in a recession.
04:23First quarter GDP will come in maybe minus half a percent.
04:27So, and I also want people to understand two types of events.
04:29There's something called endogenous economic events and exogenous.
04:34The trade tariffs are exogenous.
04:36Trump can flick them on and off when he wants.
04:40And we just saw that.
04:41So, that stock market route was already in process due to the popping of the AI bubble.
04:48And the stock market was already wobbling.
04:51And that just accelerated it.
04:52And we've had massive losses at hedge funds.
04:55And people are in pain.
04:57There's a lot of margin calls.
04:58And so, if I'm a betting man, I think a bear market has started.
05:02The stock market is now just counting a recession.
05:05And the recession can't be avoided due to the endogenous factors that I just described.
05:10These are structural things that can't be unwound quickly.
05:13We've got a housing bubble that's going to start popping this summer.
05:16It'll become more apparent in the fall.
05:17And, you know, the question then is how deep this goes before the other side when Trump's policies start to take effect, bringing back manufacturing, deregulation, tax cuts, what have you.
05:30I suspect this is going to be much like Ronald Reagan's first term.
05:35There was a double-dip recession and then an acceleration coming out the other side and then a boom, you know, the 80s boom.
05:41So, this is what we hope happens.
05:44We're not calling for a systemic banking crisis.
05:48If one starts to manifest, we'll call it out.
05:50So, we think it's manageable.
05:51But it's going to be painful.
05:53And I think when it's all said and done, the stock market will do what it's done.
05:55The last two drawdowns during recessions, it'll be minus 50%.
05:59And the other thing to think about, COVID was also an exogenous event.
06:03We shut down the economy, then we turned it back on.
06:06And the way to think about this metaphorically is if you've seen the movie Mad Max,
06:10there was a scene where the little dwarf that sat on top of the giant was in control of the methane gas.
06:18And he could shut it down and shut it off and affect Barter Town.
06:23So, this is kind of the same thing.
06:24Trump took a risk and he brilliantly deployed that risk.
06:31And he's now creating a situation where uncertainty, at least on the trade tariffs, is lifting.
06:36And the question is whether or not he folded.
06:40I think he didn't have a lot of time.
06:42But if the plan was to encircle China, then he did it.
06:46And so, we'll see what happens from here.
06:48This is a very dynamic process.
06:50This isn't something that we're going to figure out right away.
06:54There's a lot of things going on that we don't know.
06:56When the trade tariffs were announced, there was a lot of hand-wringing quick takes.
07:00I put out a tweet saying that this is a deal.
07:04There's asymmetric information in a deal.
07:06We didn't know the cards that Trump was holding.
07:08And so, I didn't make any emotional analyses.
07:12And as it turned out, this happened quicker than I even thought the plan was to encircle China.
07:18Absolutely.
07:18It's always been about China and then to force all these other countries to basically side with our alliance.
07:26And that was the Trump plan.
07:28And this is art of the deal.
07:29I mean, he said that back at the time.
07:30They'll put tariffs on, take them off, augment, see who's who, shake through it.
07:35You know, there's some things in there like countries that are really small have trade deficits with us.
07:39Maybe they only ship a few agricultural products to us.
07:44But, again, that's to force them to the table.
07:49And then Trump has his own non-monetary request for political behavior to cut off the globalist policies of DEI.
07:57And that's why Canada's like, we believe in our values.
08:00Yeah, we're going to keep making fentanyl up here.
08:01We're going to keep our borders open and flood you.
08:04And so Trump's making it social.
08:05Well, he's making, he's meddling.
08:07They've all been meddling to the globalist system, allied with the big central banks and the WEF-UN combine against us.
08:14And so this is actually how it's done.
08:17And so when he says, I'm going to put more tariffs on France if you keep Marie Le Pen in jail.
08:22And they're like, oh, my God, you're meddling.
08:23No, they're a tyranny.
08:24They're suing thousands of U.S. companies.
08:26They're getting ready to fine Elon Musk.
08:28They're running a lot of the NGO money into Europe, into the U.K., attacking us.
08:33And so the new alliances are forming.
08:35China has run into the EU.
08:36They've run to China.
08:37The U.K. is trying to come under our operation.
08:40I don't really trust them.
08:41Trump is grabbing up all the key infrastructure that we already built.
08:44And so this is a real war.
08:46And I would say right now we're winning as long as Americans don't panic if the market continues to go down.
08:52What's your take on that, Edward Dowd?
08:53And how bad do you think this is, quote, going to get?
08:57Well, look, I don't have a crystal ball.
08:59You know, the best we can hope for is a slower drawdown as the recession unfolds,
09:04much like the 2000-2002 stock market.
09:08It went down 50% over two years.
09:10Speed is where things get very concerning because then there's lots of quick losses and then knock-on effects.
09:17Are you sure there's going to be a recession?
09:18Because we're already in one just with quick numbers.
09:21I mean, that's an accurate statement, right?
09:23Yeah.
09:23Unfortunately, there's a housing cycle that we're going to contend with.
09:27And there's something known as the 18-year housing cycle.
09:30My partner, Carlos Allegri, wrote in his book in 2021, Economic Cycles, Debt, Demographics, that would hit around 25, 26.
09:38Here we are.
09:39And housing is starting to unravel a little bit.
09:44New tenant rents came down in the first quarter.
09:46The illegals didn't buy homes outright, but they supported the housing market because they were sopping up the demand for rental units.
09:53And a lot of people have multiple homes that they rent.
09:55So that's going to all unwind.
09:57And look, I don't want to be – I'm not a doomsayer.
10:00I think the good news is there's a chance on the other side for this to be a boom.
10:04But I'm realistic.
10:05Sure.
10:06Won't the recession mitigate some of the inflation?
10:12Oh, the inflation is already coming down.
10:16We wrote about that in our economic report that's for sale.
10:19The inflation is already coming down because Trump's policies and his immediate impact at the border is already reversing that.
10:28We're – you know, as we roll over economically, inflation will come down.
10:33We'll have disinflation, maybe a short, brief deflationary scare, which that's what central banks hate, is deflation.
10:39The other thing I want to point out – I want to point this out, and we need to understand this.
10:45The Federal Reserve is behind the eight ball, really behind the eight ball.
10:50And what they should have done is supported Trump and immediately lowered interest rates, which is not money printing.
10:56It's just – it's providing liquidity and reassurances that interest rates will be going lower.
11:00It's the most base stabilization for the general public.
11:03Yeah, and they're going to have to lower interest rates anyway.
11:06Money is very tight.
11:07We look at real interest rates, but it indicates –
11:09Aren't the 30-year loans – it's already going down.
11:13Yeah, look, the 10 years since Trump took over peaked at 480, 485.
11:19It went down to 4 percent before the Japanese had a margin call and had to sell treasuries.
11:24I don't think they were doing it to screw with Trump.
11:27I think there was – you know, there's a giant yen carry trade.
11:30The Nikkei got hammered, and people sell what they can, not what they want.
11:34And I think there was a massive margin call in Japan.
11:37No, I totally agree with you.
11:38So let me ask you a few quick questions.
11:40I want to come back and get into more.
11:41This Drudge report, which is not Drudge, folks, and I know who bought it, and I've now been authorized.
11:46And people don't tell me what to do, but I didn't want this source that gave me this years ago to get burned.
11:50But soon I've been authorized to tell the whole story.
11:53Okay, so the only people controlling me is that when I get information to give me a bigger picture,
11:58but then in confidence I'm not allowed to tell you I've been given the green light.
12:01I'm going to do that tomorrow because it's an important story.
12:03So heads up to the folks over there.
12:05But Trump blinks first.
12:07Some tariffs paused.
12:09He always said he was going to go up and down.
12:12Those that didn't retaliate back, because we were retaliating to their previous action,
12:17this was, again, bringing them to the table.
12:19He always said that, art of the deal, and they're trying to spin that he blinked.
12:23Yeah, on Ben's war room on Friday, there was a lot of consternation about the tariff calculations
12:31and how they weren't communicated well and they were stupid and, you know, not whatever.
12:37What I determined, and my partner Carlos and I, we talked about this at length,
12:41it was basically goal seek.
12:43They said, hey, we want zero deficits.
12:45That's the goal.
12:46This is how we calculated the tariffs.
12:47And what that was meant to do was bring people to the table immediately, because they could
12:52have done this another way, Alex.
12:53They could have done reciprocal tariffs, dug into all the tariff language and laws and
12:59things already on the books.
13:00That would have taken months.
13:02This was a way to bring people to the table very quickly.
13:05I think this was the plan all along.
13:08And so to say he blinked, I think he didn't, the capital markets weren't going to give them
13:13too much time, but I think this was the plan already.
13:15So this, you know, Trump can turn off and on.
13:19Again, exogenous is a term people should look up.
13:23It means outside the system and it's self-inflicted.
13:26So he can give it and take it away.
13:29And he took away the tariffs because the phone started ringing and he did it quickly.
13:34And now we're going to, and now we just have the 10% tariffs across the board with the exception
13:39of China.
13:40So, you know, people will spin this any way they want, but we figured out this was always
13:45the plan, but we didn't think he had much time.
13:48But apparently the phone started ringing off the hook.
13:51So there we go.
13:54How bad is it going to get?
13:56Because I know we've got demographic problems, but China's and others are even worse.
14:01How much escalation?
14:02We're now over 100% on China.
14:04Of course, they're at 80 plus percent on top of what they already had.
14:07Now you have the Treasury Secretary, Bissett, saying they may just delist Chinese stocks.
14:14That, to me, I'm not a stock expert like you, but that might actually cause a world depression.
14:20Or, I mean, is that just threats?
14:24Delisting stocks won't cause a depression.
14:26Look, clearly what's going on, and Trump's signal lists before the tariffs, and I wish
14:33I had, you know, seen the signal and called that he's going to encircle China.
14:38I did not see that coming, but it's a brilliant move.
14:41You know, this talk about Greenland, the Panama Canal, it's all, this is about national security.
14:46We've been infiltrated.
14:48Your show has talked about this for years.
14:49Bannon's been talking about it.
14:51Anybody with any common sense knows that the Chinese have been doing the slow march approach,
14:56they think, in 100-year terms, and they're encircling, and they're infiltrated.
15:00Sure, let me throw this at you.
15:01You're a really smart stock picker, and that's why you're coming up with an angle.
15:04I've said all this for months.
15:05This is the plan of encircle China.
15:06The reason I know is Trump looks at it all in grand strategic strokes and exactly as a war.
15:13That's why Elon and them are laughing.
15:15Oh, it's almost like we have target-rich environment.
15:16Ha, ha, ha.
15:17Cutting off the globalist money.
15:19You know, making them roll over.
15:20You're encircling China.
15:21He wanted China to over-respond.
15:24He said last week, great job, China.
15:26You took the bait.
15:27That was the plan.
15:29Yeah, and China has serious problems.
15:32In my partner's book in 2021, he wrote about the demographic problem that China had.
15:37They hit a demographic wall in 2020.
15:40And demographics are very important to economies and growth and debt.
15:44And they started declining in 2020.
15:46That's when the real estate crisis started to appear.
15:49They've had a huge deflationary cycle.
15:51Their bond yields are way down.
15:53That's why I think our bond yields will go way down, too, as we enter a recession.
15:57So Scott Besson's going to have an opportunity to term out the debt that he inherited from Yellen on the short end.
16:02So the economic recession is not necessarily an awful thing.
16:08Yes, risk assets, some people will lose money temporarily.
16:12But longer term, this allows Scott Besson to term out the debt that we need to term out.
16:18Because right now we're operating as a third world country on the short end.
16:21But China has serious issues.
16:24And one thing I know from when I was at BlackRock in 2001, 2002, 2003, our energy team that was down the hall from me, they ran an energy hedge fund.
16:34They would go to China because you've got to remember back then there was a commodity boom.
16:37China had just gotten into the World Trade Organization, and we were offshoring all our, you know, manufacturing to them.
16:43And there was a commodity boom in China that drove a commodity cycle into the OA top.
16:49And when they came back from their visits, they went to China all the time.
16:52They pounded home one thing.
16:55The Chinese leadership fear one thing and one thing only, their own people.
16:59There's 1.7 billion of them that are being suppressed.
17:02And the deal is, as long as we keep them employed, they won't grumble too much.
17:07And they have deep problems, and they worry about this every day.
17:13And if there is a-
17:14Stay right there.
17:15This is key.
17:16Stay there.
17:17The eighth coin in the limited edition series is now exclusively available at thealexjonesstore.com.
17:25Ladies and gentlemen, this is the eighth in the series.
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17:31There's only 4,000 of this coin.
17:33I designed all the others, but the crew said, hey, people keep asking for an Alex Jones coin.
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17:43It is vital to keep us on the air.
17:45Plus, it's an amazing coin.
17:46All the other in the last seven, the last few years we put out, you look at them online,
17:50they're selling for way more than we printed them up.
17:53But I'm not even pushing it as a collectible coin.
17:55It is a fundraiser to keep us on the air.
17:57We absolutely need the funds.
17:58It is historic, and it costs us about 40 bucks for each coin for the silver and for having it printed or minted in Missouri.
18:06And you can get it for $99 if you're not a VIP member at thealexjonesstore.com for 70-something.
18:10If you are, people love the coins.
18:12It keeps us on air.
18:13It's a fundraiser.
18:14I want to be 100% clear with people.
18:20This country is in a real war for its survival, and nothing stays stagnant in the universe.
18:26The only constant is change.
18:27The only thing that doesn't change is change.
18:31And I can tell you, I've already been read in on everything going on for years because a lot of my ideas and worldview have been adopted.
18:44And at this point, it is just amazing.
18:49And I've got a lot of new information in the last few weeks, and I got a lot more while I was in Florida.
18:57I'll just leave it at that.
18:58Obviously, talking to Tucker, there's a lot more than meets the eye there.
19:02I think people know that.
19:04But other people I met with as well.
19:07Well, it's very intense, and there is an internal civil war inside the intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA.
19:18And Trump is winning.
19:24We are winning.
19:28On the surface, most of the people are running up the white flag on the bad guy team.
19:32But obviously, you can't trust any of them.
19:34But they're also giving the keys to where everything's at at a mass scale.
19:41So this is – and Trump intends to put a bunch of people in prison.
19:47So I can just tell you, people are like, are you ready?
19:53Because, I mean, the gloves are off.
19:56So I just want everybody to understand that.
19:58And the globalists know that, too.
20:00That's why a lot of them are running up white flags right now.
20:02I would advise the leftists and everybody, you're being given line, like when a big fish hits them, you let it run out and exhausts itself.
20:11You're being given line.
20:13And I can just tell you, there's no possible scenario where the globalists ever get back in power again.
20:20The only question is, do any of them want to survive this process?
20:24Now, there is a chance they can destabilize things enough where they take us with them.
20:31So I don't want to sit here and everybody think that we should be popping champagne or, as the wolf says in Pulp Fiction, giving each other you-know-what's yet.
20:38And we've got big problems.
20:41But that said, the whole world's looking at the constellation of the way things are.
20:45And I know Trump has been advised by a lot of smart people just to do a big announcement and just lay out.
20:52He's pretty much done it for thinking people.
20:54But choose a side right now.
20:57And that's the point we're at.
20:59And we're looking at all of this, looking at the geopolitical alignments and what's happening.
21:05What is your prognosis for how bumpy this is going to get?
21:09Do you agree with what I just said from your perspective or just other big picture?
21:15How bad is this going to get with China?
21:17What is China going to do?
21:19Because if they are faced with a rebellion, and this is all about removing the Communist Party over there, and this will, if it continues, do that probably.
21:25They will lash out, though, with the Taiwanese invasion.
21:28And obviously, that's what an unpopular government, people that don't know, the liberals that are tuning in that think too many can have a baby.
21:35Let me explain something.
21:36When you have a big reset like this, you almost always have a giant war.
21:39We can't do that now because of all the weapons are too advanced.
21:43And so that's why you see a lot of real clear thinking around the world happening right now because we're on the edge of a cliff.
21:49What do you think of that overall statement?
21:52That's a great statement.
21:53And I agree with you.
21:54China's demographic problem is our problem.
21:56So they have an economic problem right now.
22:00You could call it a deep recession, depression.
22:03These trade tariffs would only accelerate that.
22:06I think that's going to force them to the table because they fear their own people.
22:09Having said that, if there is a problem internally, they will do the old Regalian dialectic trick of othering the U.S. as the cause of all of the internal problems, and they will go to war.
22:24So we have to avoid that.
22:25This is like threading a needle.
22:28That's a black swan event.
22:29I'm not calling that, but that's a problem out there.
22:32We also have black swan events in Iran, that conflict, the Middle East conflict, and the Ukraine conflict.
22:38So we have a bunch of these percolating issues out there that hopefully President Trump can have a calm, cool head, do some strong tactics to bring people to the table and iron out how we can all improve global trade and make it more fair.
22:54And obviously, if you listen to Scott Bestin, he has said, Wall Street's had a good run.
23:01It's now time for Main Street.
23:02And if you understand what that means, what that means is the policies they're going to enact are going to cause risk assets, financial assets to deflate.
23:10It just has to happen.
23:12So while that's going on, there'll be a lot of blame pointed towards President Trump is wrecking the economy.
23:17I suspect over time, as the stock market declines into its final low, sometime, again, I don't have a crystal ball.
23:24If this plays out, I'm thinking first quarter of 26, that his popularity will decline.
23:30He has to stick with what he's doing.
23:33And then as these policies hopefully start to take effect, his popularity will rise into the midterms and into the 28 election.
23:42And by the way, if you look at the war planners against us, John Podesta and others, they are saying we want to crash the economy by the summer and have uprisings that crash it further and somehow convince people with scandals or whatever to drive Trump out.
23:58That's the admitted insane plan.
24:00I mean, it's public.
24:01So, I mean, they're going to get the blame for that.
24:05People aren't asleep like they used to be.
24:07But, Edward, I see them still going with that plan, which is totally insane.
24:13Absolutely insane.
24:14And that's why when I heard you say you have sources saying that people are going to go to jail.
24:18One thing that, you know, a lot of people who are black-pilled keep complaining about is the lack of prosecutions.
24:23I would point out it takes time to build a case.
24:26You want to do it secretly.
24:27You don't let people know you're investigating them.
24:29I suspect there's so much fraud, and this NGO system is so toxic and has grown so big.
24:37I think there should be lots of investigations into the NGO taxpayer money that was received, where it went.
24:44We're going to find out that it enabled an illegal alien operation to be funded by these NGOs.
24:50I think people took their fair share of the cut.
24:52Oh, I mean, it's open and shut.
24:54Exactly.
24:55And there's even speculation.
24:58Again, we don't have proof yet, but it makes sense to me that a lot of these NGOs were not only getting taxpayer money funding illegal operations.
25:06They're also playing in the stock market, which they're not supposed to do, but they did anyways, and we're making money with taxpayer money.
25:14That game's over, and that may be some of the selling we're seeing as these NGO folks are running for the hills covering their tracks.
25:20No proof yet.
25:21Well, you have record-level them moving out of the country, record-level Swiss bank account internet searches.
25:27Absolutely.
25:28Yeah, so I think we're just scratching the surface of this NGO fraud system.
25:33The NGOs have been around for a while, but I also want to go back historically to the great financial crisis.
25:39Not one banker went to jail, and a lot of people found that curious.
25:43I think what happened, and I'm pretty sure it's going to come out soon, the Obama administration cut deals, and these banks then paid huge fines over the next six years.
25:54They went to consumer protection funds, some of which found their way into leftist NGOs.
26:00So this scam, which I think already existed, really took off under the Obama administration and grew into a giant behemoth of fraud that we saw now, where it actually drove economic growth, quote-unquote false growth, for a year going into the end of 2024.
26:19And I also want to point out that the fiscal year for the government is September to September.
26:27So the first five months of fiscal 25, which three of those months were not, and most of January, so let's call it four months, were not under the control of President Trump.
26:40They accelerated that spend 13 percent above the rate last year.
26:47The total budget's only supposed to grow 7 percent.
26:50So they front-loaded government spending, which juiced the last quarters of economic growth.
26:55It was either incompetence, greed, or a plan to basically rug-pull the economy, because if the marginal input into the economy was government spending, that set up Trump.
27:09And Trump has already found $150 billion under Doge.
27:12He's going to make cuts.
27:14That's going to cause an economic impact.
27:17There's no way around it.
27:18So this was either incompetence or a master plan to rug-pull the economy just as Trump got in there.
27:23Well, I can tell you he's said, and his people have said before they even did this, look, this will bring down prices.
27:31This will make things more affordable.
27:32It will bring back a real economy instead of these elites siphoning it all off and then purposely investing in elsewhere just because they have this classic, imperious, feudal-lord-surf relationship attitude of, oh, yeah, make them poor, make them eat bugs, give them a social credit score.
27:50I mean, that's the WEF-UN model.
27:52For people that don't know, the U.N. goes around everywhere, and it helps maintain tyrannies over countries.
27:57They literally have the local peasants trimming the grass with scissors.
28:02And a lot of these U.N. officials literally have sex slaves, slaves.
28:06It comes out all the time.
28:07I mean, it's just a new feudal system.
28:11I mean, you read the Club of Rome in the 60s.
28:12That's the plan that's been adopted.
28:13It's a new feudal system.
28:15I mean, you don't get movies and books like Hunger Games, and then we look at the world and go, wow, it's like they're building Hunger Games.
28:21No, no, Hunger Games is based on extrapolating out where this would go.
28:24What would a modern version of feudalism be?
28:26You read these Club of Rome and U.N. documents from the 60s where they really hatched the rollout of this to kind of package the social Darwin ideas of, you know, the 19th century or the end of the 18th century.
28:39I mean, it's really cold-blooded and sick.
28:43And so this is really all a giant repudiation of a feudal economy, a conquest economy, a warlord economy for, hey, the Buck Rogers economy, sweetheart.
28:53This is really a move for that.
28:55Absolutely.
28:58Look, what Trump's trying to do is reestablish the private sector as the engine of growth.
29:02Since the great financial crisis, the marginal contributor to economic growth has been government deficit spending by global governments everywhere with 0% interest rates.
29:12So Trump's job and why he was elected was to realign the U.S. economic growth to the private sector from the public sector.
29:22And that's painful as you do that process.
29:24And that's called the American system.
29:26Correct.
29:27And so this juice at the end, which is a lot of it was fraud, you know, there's a hangover.
29:33And Trump has to, and I hope, and I think they're doing a pretty good job of messaging this, but they could always do a better job.
29:39And the tariffs took all the headlines.
29:41But again, that's an exogenous event that seems to have been temporarily stopped.
29:48And uncertainty over time will lift from that endeavor.
29:52But, you know, if I'm a betting man, you know, we could see the stock market rally for several months.
29:58I don't think we're going to a new all-time high anytime soon.
30:01And then as the economic growth becomes more apparent, we'll start to decline again.
30:05But, you know, again, I don't have a crystal ball.
30:07This could happen fast.
30:08The faster it happens, it's scary.
30:10It could cause some disruption, but, you know, it's like anything with pain.
30:15You want to rip off the Band-Aid slowly or you want to rip it off fast.
30:18You want to rip it off fast.