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00:00:00Welcome to our number two live right here on this Friday on the early line on Sports Grid.
00:00:05He is Donnie. I am Ben.
00:00:07The NBA playoffs officially begin tomorrow.
00:00:11A quadruple header of games followed by four more on Sunday.
00:00:15But two more spots to figure out after the final night of the NBA's play-in tournament on this Friday night.
00:00:23In Atlanta, it's the Hawks and the Heat trying to become the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
00:00:28A waiting and opening round matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
00:00:32In Memphis, it's the Grizzlies and the Mavericks trying to become the eighth seed of the Western Conference to take on the NBA Finals favorites.
00:00:39That would be the Oklahoma City Thunder as the one seed out west.
00:00:44So, DRS, before those final two sets are booked, we continue our NBA playoff previews for the six series that we already know.
00:00:53We'll finish up two in the Eastern Conference in our next segment.
00:00:56Much to Donnie's delight, an NBA playoff pick six, NBA Finals bets, Finals MVP winners, specials and plus money, and a round one, game one best bet for all of you as well.
00:01:11A lot to dive into here, DRS, in this second hour.
00:01:14Yeah, I might have to jump in the pace car right now with the Pacers.
00:01:17Just taking a look at that, you know, price point at $164.
00:01:20Can we grease it a little bit more down to minus $150 or so?
00:01:24Make me a Pacers fan all the way through.
00:01:26So, digging into some of that stuff, a lot of the – look, tonight we do have a couple games.
00:01:30The real playoffs, quote-unquote, gets started on Saturday, and away we go.
00:01:34Once we get those series 1-1, 2-2, zigzag theories back and forth, game sevens, a lot more intrigue because you get that day-to-day flow.
00:01:42Hey, this team had a good game.
00:01:43Well, they bounced back in game number two.
00:01:44That's always the intrigue that I love, but also, as we said, Dame Lillard coming back into the fold for the Milwaukee Bucks does change those opinions slightly for me.
00:01:52So, as you go and talk things through, different opportunities pop up at this point.
00:01:56So, once we get the official start to the NBA playoff season on Saturday, away we go.
00:02:03DRS, I'm proud of you.
00:02:04You made it through one full opening hour with all these NBA playoff previews.
00:02:10Hour number two, right here, right now.
00:02:12We'll talk with Chris Meaney a little bit later on.
00:02:14In this second hour, about the Stanley Cup postseason, that is now set regular season finale Thursday on the ice around the National Hockey League.
00:02:24But the playoffs were set at the end of Wednesday night with Les Habitants.
00:02:28How do I say it?
00:02:29Les Habitants?
00:02:30Yeah.
00:02:31Les Habitants.
00:02:31You're saying that just as we welcome in the radio audience here.
00:02:34I love that, man.
00:02:35Good job.
00:02:36Welcome in.
00:02:36Welcome in the radio.
00:02:37We're still doing that?
00:02:39Fantastic stuff.
00:02:40We'll talk with Chris Meaney of the NHL later to preview the Stanley Cup postseason.
00:02:44As well.
00:02:45DRS, back to the series we were talking about to end off our first hour.
00:02:49Milwaukee and Indiana.
00:02:51The Bucs yesterday, when it seemed murky that Damian Lillard would return for the opening round playoff series, or maybe at all this postseason, got some positive injury news.
00:03:01Dame officially cleared off that blood thinning medication.
00:03:05A really good sign for a scary scenario dealing with that deep vein thrombosis that we all know now known as a blood clot.
00:03:13He is not going to play in game number one tomorrow in Indianapolis to open things up, but we could see him back here.
00:03:21Game number one tomorrow in Indy.
00:03:23Our first game of four to start the opening round of the postseason in the NBA tomorrow.
00:03:29The Pacers, a five-and-a-half-point home favorite inside Cambridge Fieldhouse against Milwaukee.
00:03:34Over-understands at 225.
00:03:36Donnie, Indiana, minus 220 to win this series outright.
00:03:40Before the injury news on Dame, now just minus 178.
00:03:44You're buying back into the pace car.
00:03:46How come and what do you want to see in game one?
00:03:48Yeah, down to minus 164 now, even on the live number, so it's coming down every moment.
00:03:53As I said, maybe that buy point for me would be a minus 150, which I think there is a lot of value.
00:03:58Because understand this, if Dame comes back, it probably does help Milwaukee, but when's he back?
00:04:03Game one? No. Game two? Maybe. Game three? We don't know that. Game four?
00:04:07Or how about this? They rush him back because you're down 2-1 in the series, or they slow play it because you're up 2-1 in the series.
00:04:14That's something as some food for thought.
00:04:15But the 5.5 does seem right. You're still trying to get a gauge of these teams, which I do think, based on the standings, are right next to each other, neck and neck.
00:04:24And rightfully so. There's talent on both sides.
00:04:25I do think the Pacers are better, but as I said, I don't want to take the Pacers at over a $2 price.
00:04:30Now it's coming back into fold, but I do see the 5.5.
00:04:33I think the Pacers win the series.
00:04:34Obviously, you want to get game number one.
00:04:36It's very important to keep that momentum on your side, and then try to get that 2-0 series lead before you even go back to the 5-0 forum out there in Milwaukee.
00:04:44So for me, 5.5, I would lukewarm on the idea they cover that.
00:04:48I think they win, not in love with it.
00:04:49But again, my eyes now focus on that series price as it continues to go down.
00:04:53I'm interested to see, like, if we get a little bit more news today, if that does drop a little bit lower.
00:04:58Because apparently, the books and also the public are buying back.
00:05:01Hey, that's an added bonus for Dame, which it probably is.
00:05:03But again, they weren't world beaters at all with Damian Lillard anyway.
00:05:06No, they weren't DRS, which is why I'm confident in my pick for Milwaukee that I bet earlier this week, before even any of the Dame news, we got a report early in the week that he was still dealing with the blood clot.
00:05:19He would not play in the opening round.
00:05:21Well, now he's probably going to play in the first round, just not game number one that he has been medically cleared and off that blood thinning medication.
00:05:28I'm not sure Dame makes Milwaukee all that much better.
00:05:32I'm not so sure the experiment of Dame and Giannis has been all that fruitful or successful.
00:05:37And certainly, Doc Rivers in the playoffs doesn't give me a ton of confidence.
00:05:41But this Bucs team, winners of eight straight down the stretch, 10 of their last 14, 19 and 10 since the All-Star break.
00:05:49I kind of like the form they're playing in.
00:05:50Now, the Pacers didn't make it to the Eastern Conference Finals before getting swept with some injuries to Tyrese Halliburton by the Boston Celtics a year ago.
00:05:59No knock on Indiana.
00:06:00I think Milwaukee wins this series outright.
00:06:03In that eight-game win streak to end out the regular season, the Bucs won outright as an underdog four times.
00:06:09I've got a little bit of belief in Milwaukee, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, by the time we have gotten now to the playoffs.
00:06:17Also, should be said, total tomorrow, 225.
00:06:20I think we might see some pace in these spots, despite being that defensive intensity ratcheting up in the NBA playoffs.
00:06:29By the way, four Milwaukee to win in six, plus 490.
00:06:32Same exact price for Indiana to win in six games.
00:06:35The most likely is the Pacers in seven at home at plus 360.
00:06:41Donnie, we get to our next series.
00:06:43The Boston Celtics, the reigning NBA champions.
00:06:45And despite being the two-seed in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, the minus money odds on favorites win an Eastern Conference crown once again.
00:06:54Boston is a minus 8,000 favorite in the 2-7 matchup against an Orlando team that beat the Hawks by 25 at home on Tuesday to become the seven-seed in the Eastern Conference.
00:07:06You see it right there.
00:07:07Orlando is getting three and a half games in the series spread.
00:07:11If the Magic are unable to cover that series spread, that means the Celtics swept Orlando, which is the most likely outcome as the odds makers see it.
00:07:22Is it going to be that quick between Boston and Orlando?
00:07:25I think it's a gentleman's sweep.
00:07:27I think that's what makes most sense.
00:07:29Because, look, teams that just get into the playoffs are technically quality opponents.
00:07:34And if you answer in a regular season, like, okay, forget about even how the standings actually went.
00:07:39The Boston Celtics are going to play the Orlando Magic four times this year.
00:07:42Two games in Boston, two games in Orlando.
00:07:44Theoretically, what do you think is going to happen?
00:07:46Well, Boston's really the better team.
00:07:47Yeah, three to one.
00:07:48Like, that's what I have, like, the opinion of.
00:07:50Because no matter what happens, Ben, it's going to be two games in Boston and two games with the Orlando Magic at home in their own building.
00:07:56We're led to believe that they can't get one of those games.
00:07:59Like, it's so hard in the playoffs to win playoff games on the road.
00:08:02And we understand this.
00:08:03If Boston waxes Orlando in game number one and game number two, you know the kitchen sink is coming at you for game number three once they get into their own building.
00:08:11So them getting one game, yes, I think it's legitimate.
00:08:14Is it a little bit expensive getting three and a half games at minus 158?
00:08:17Yes, it is.
00:08:18But you're asking every single series on the board.
00:08:21You're probably thinking the opposite team, no matter what the standings are, what the seating, gets one of those games.
00:08:27It's hard to sweep a team.
00:08:28It really is.
00:08:29Yeah, DRS, you see it there as well.
00:08:32Shortest amount of total games, most likely outcome, is four at plus 115.
00:08:37You want a slightly better price if you think it is that easy for the Celtics.
00:08:42Boston to win in four.
00:08:43Because I don't think the Hotsmakers are expecting the Magic to pull off the sweep over the reigning NBA champs.
00:08:49The Celtics to win in four in the series, correct.
00:08:51Score market is plus 128.
00:08:5413 cents, but better in your pocket than that even of our lovely sponsor of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
00:09:00Boston is a 14 and a half point favorite in game number one on Sunday.
00:09:06Now 13 and a half, but still a hefty number in favor of the C's inside TD Garden on Sunday afternoon.
00:09:13A pick six for the NBA playoffs next.
00:09:16For the next two months, it's the NBA postseason.
00:09:21It's the NBA playoffs.
00:09:22So note this moment in time.
00:09:25Here on a Friday before the opening round of the playoffs begin tomorrow on a Saturday with a quadruple header of action.
00:09:31As our NBA playoff pick six here on TEL.
00:09:36He is Donnie.
00:09:36I am Ben.
00:09:37We will go through our pick six as we often do on a Friday before marquee events.
00:09:42Whether it's during football season, tournaments, or playoffs to start.
00:09:47Donnie, here are the six categories for the NBA playoff pick six on the early line.
00:09:53Picking the exact NBA finals matchup and the exact result.
00:09:57Who wins and hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy as an NBA champion.
00:10:02The correlated finals MVP market as well.
00:10:05And then we'll dive even deeper to the start of the NBA playoffs.
00:10:09A round one underdog we think can win the series outright.
00:10:12An X factor all around the playoffs to keep an eye on.
00:10:16A special with a sprinkle of plus money.
00:10:19And a game one best bet for round number one this weekend.
00:10:24Six different spots to choose from right now.
00:10:26Eight by the time we round out the play internee tonight on a Friday.
00:10:31We start with the end goal, DRS.
00:10:33Getting to the NBA finals and winning an NBA championship.
00:10:37How do you see it playing out over this long two-month stretch that is the NBA postseason?
00:10:42I've had the same opinion for a few months now.
00:10:45Western Conference much tougher than the Eastern Conference.
00:10:48The Eastern Conference certainly top loaded between two teams.
00:10:50Those are the two teams you can choose.
00:10:52You do have some options in the Western Conference.
00:10:54But if we're just looking at overall talent level, the way they played the regular season,
00:10:59home court advantage being heavily weighted in my opinion, I do think the best team in the
00:11:03Western Conference is OKC, which means they will be in the finals.
00:11:07So now if we take a look at the East, we understand it's going to be about two teams.
00:11:11It's the Boston Celtics who were an amazing team, won the NBA championship last year.
00:11:14And it's about Cleveland, who had a great regular season, the talent to break through,
00:11:19but not getting as much respect because they're just not the Celtics, but have home court advantage.
00:11:25So I do think both of those teams have the ability to make it to the NBA finals.
00:11:29And then once again, home court advantage being paramount with a good basketball team,
00:11:34which would be OKC cutting down the nets as the NBA champion over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Ben.
00:11:40I love it, DRS. I really do. You and I have examined these NBA championship odds
00:11:47for the last three, four months in really what we saw by about the time we got to the new year
00:11:53in January, DRS, post-Christmas where a lot of attention starts to be paid to the NBA
00:11:58is what we are seeing now. Now that number on Cleveland as the one seed in the Eastern Conference
00:12:04has grown shorter and shorter, but they're still not booked as the favorites to win a title
00:12:09either in the NBA overall or in the Eastern Conference.
00:12:14But we've really seen these lines of demarcation.
00:12:17Oklahoma City and Boston, for a good majority of the year,
00:12:20it was the Celtics slightly in front of OKC,
00:12:23who have largely been in pole position in the Western Conference the entirety of this NBA campaign.
00:12:29But as both Oklahoma City and Cleveland continued to stack up wins on a historic rate,
00:12:35they started to see those numbers grow shorter and the expectations for the reigning champs
00:12:40to be exactly back where they are continue to be there.
00:12:44In the final month or so of the regular season, OKC moved in front ever so slightly of the Celtics
00:12:49and that number on the Cavaliers growing shorter and shorter under a $5 price.
00:12:55DRS, like you, I think Oklahoma City is the best team in the NBA.
00:12:59I do believe the Thunder, who will have home-floor advantage in any potential NBA championship series
00:13:06against the Cavs or the Celtics, are going to win a Larry O'Brien trophy this year.
00:13:12A young and talented core that has all been together.
00:13:15Shea Gildress Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren,
00:13:18under a very talented head coach in Mark Dagnall,
00:13:21with the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein this year as well.
00:13:24I think they took their playoff lumps last year, losing in the conference semis to Luka Doncic and Dallas.
00:13:31They have learned from that experience and by far, in a way, are the best team in the Western Conference.
00:13:36I think Oklahoma City is going to win an NBA championship.
00:13:38The only difference I have is OKC doing it against the Boston Celtics.
00:13:43So I do believe at the end of the day, we'll win the Eastern Conference crown.
00:13:48But I will just say this, Donnie.
00:13:49Regardless of how you feel, if you believe it's the Thunder over the Cavs, the Thunder over the Celtics,
00:13:55or swap those two Eastern Conference teams over OKC,
00:13:59that's how I would approach those NBA championship odds,
00:14:02because all of those prices are so short compared to everybody else in the playoffs.
00:14:07But I think those short numbers are correct.
00:14:09You're right about it.
00:14:10And also, understand this.
00:14:12Like, upsets do happen, not as much as in the NDA, particularly with the top, top seeds.
00:14:17So wouldn't it be some mayhem if, like, we get to a finals and OKC isn't even in the finals?
00:14:22And by the way, is it that far-fetched that OKC can't make the NBA finals?
00:14:25Like, there's good basketball teams in the West and also pedigree basketball teams
00:14:29that have won championships with championship players, which technically you don't have on OKC.
00:14:33And the same thing about the East.
00:14:35Like, we are just coronating that it's going to be the Cavaliers going up against the Boston Celtics,
00:14:40and that's going to be the end of it.
00:14:41Like, could a team surprise, like, the New York Knicks getting it together?
00:14:44I'm up for the mayhem, and I think it would be great.
00:14:46Like, let's just say the Lakers do make a run and knock off OKC and make it to the NBA finals,
00:14:51the ratings that they would have with Luka Doncic and also with LeBron James.
00:14:54But just seeing what we saw in the regular season, the most complete team that plays offense,
00:14:59defense with an unbelievable record and has home court advantage, it's OKC.
00:15:03The only downfall, Ben, if you want to poke holes is, well, they haven't done it before.
00:15:07OK, we'll see it.
00:15:09Right, absolutely, Donnie.
00:15:10And that's what you're paying for in this number.
00:15:13They have not done it before, but if they do, that's where you get your value.
00:15:18So, DRS, if we both think Oklahoma City is going to win that Larry O'Brien trophy,
00:15:23then I would think our natural thought for NBA finals MVP is the guy more than likely to win the regular season MVP hardware,
00:15:30Shea Gilgis-Alexander.
00:15:32Yes, sir, best player, best team, cut it down, deservedly so.
00:15:38How about this season, Ben?
00:15:40You talk about a guy that's going to win the MVP in the regular season,
00:15:43the MVP in the NBA finals, and put a world championship on a team that has never won a world championship.
00:15:50My goodness, you want to talk about moving to the front of the line?
00:15:53That's SGA.
00:15:54And those expectations are high because what do we joke about?
00:15:57Pencil this guy in for 31, 32, or 33 points every single night.
00:16:04Seven or eight assists, a couple of steals as well on the defensive side of the floor.
00:16:09And DRS, you can see it expressed in the correlated odds market.
00:16:13Oklahoma City, plus 175 to win the NBA championship.
00:16:17Ten cents of difference for Shea Gilgis-Alexander at plus 185.
00:16:22There is no world the Thunder win an NBA title without SGA leading the way.
00:16:27They get there.
00:16:28They reach that pinnacle.
00:16:30Shea Gilgis-Alexander winning NBA finals.
00:16:33Did you say Blue Dork?
00:16:35Yeah, where's his odds?
00:16:36Come on, MVP, MVP.
00:16:39We continue our NBA playoff pick six here on the day before the NBA playoffs officially begin.
00:16:46Postseason underway.
00:16:47Final night of the play-in tournament on this Friday
00:16:49with a doubleheader of games to become the eighth seed in either conference.
00:16:53We'll preview for you in our number three.
00:16:56But we look at the NBA playoffs the real deal.
00:16:59DRS, we have done our finals matchup, our finals MVP.
00:17:03Both you and I believe Oklahoma City is winning an NBA championship.
00:17:06You over Cleveland, me over Boston.
00:17:09But if that is the case, SGA for OKC.
00:17:12Shea Gilgis-Alexander winning finals MVP.
00:17:15Round one underdog as we focus now on the opening round of the NBA playoffs
00:17:21that begins tomorrow with a quadruple header of games.
00:17:25Which underdog in their opening round playoff set is winning that series outright
00:17:29with a plus money price?
00:17:31I mean, pretty simple for me.
00:17:32It's the Houston Rockets getting plus 138.
00:17:34This is the number two seed playing a play-in team with a home court advantage
00:17:39and the better regular season record and younger and fresher legs getting a number of 138.
00:17:46Ridiculous.
00:17:46I had no choice but to take the Houston Rockets in round number one
00:17:49against the Golden State Warriors.
00:17:51And I can't wait to watch this play out, which means, Ben, game number one.
00:17:54It feels like there will be a referendum immediately on that game.
00:17:57And I'm talking about if the Warriors, we talked about the Warriors winning by double digits.
00:18:01If the Warriors win by one, ah, no big deal.
00:18:03They won that game.
00:18:04They'll probably end up sweeping the Rockets.
00:18:05Rockets, H-Town, show up in this series and please deliver me that plus 138
00:18:12because we will ride the Rockets after that as if they don't belong as the number two seed.
00:18:16They need this series more than any other team in the NBA just to show us that, yes, Donnie,
00:18:22the regular season does have at least some weight in it.
00:18:25Go Rockets.
00:18:27DRS, unlike other Rockets this week, lasting more than 10 minutes is going to be crucial
00:18:32for Houston in this NBA playoff set.
00:18:35You know that I am on the Rockets at a 17-1 price to win the Western Conference crown.
00:18:40Rodney Dangerfield once said, I can't get no respect.
00:18:44That's what's happening here for Houston.
00:18:47I think the Rockets keep this series very, very close.
00:18:51I am hoping for an opportunity to cash out of my wager with a little bit of profit.
00:18:56I am also with Houston in this opening round set.
00:18:59And frankly, Golden State has the pedigree.
00:19:01We know it.
00:19:03Last year did not make the playoffs out of the play-in tournament.
00:19:06Two years ago, came up short in the second round.
00:19:09Of course, three years ago, their fourth championship in eight seasons.
00:19:12A different Golden State team, but still a very good one.
00:19:16Steph, Jimmy, Draymond, obviously still led by Steve Kerr.
00:19:20A really formidable side.
00:19:21But should the Warriors, without home floor advantage, have this much of an advantage against Houston?
00:19:27I don't think so.
00:19:29Love the pick.
00:19:29My round one underdog DRS was always going to be the Milwaukee Bucks.
00:19:34Damian Lillard involved.
00:19:35Damian Lillard not in the lineup.
00:19:37I believe in what Giannis is doing right now for Milwaukee, much like he did back in 2021.
00:19:43Give me the Bucks to pull off the round one upset over the Indiana Pacers in the 4-5 matchup in the Eastern Conference.
00:19:50Although I know you feel differently about where things go in that series starting tomorrow in Indy.
00:19:55Yeah, it won't be rooting for you.
00:19:57Certainly won't be there.
00:19:58I'd like to be a team player, but won't be a team player in this situation.
00:20:01We're going in that pace car.
00:20:02We're driving around Indianapolis with a big-time victory at this point, and I expect that.
00:20:07And I just want that price point to drop lower and lower and lower for the boys in Indy, which include Tyrese Halliburton.
00:20:13And I think that's the way it's going to go.
00:20:14And also, a little deep down, maybe a little bit of a Bucks hatred, you know, over the couple years.
00:20:19So, let's go to Steve's into it.
00:20:20It's not like I like the Pacers by any point.
00:20:22Yeah, exactly.
00:20:23So, let's go Pacers, man.
00:20:24Drive all over that place.
00:20:25Let's go.
00:20:26Listen, there's a lot to be skeptical for in terms of overall success of the Giannis and Dame partnership led by Doc Rivers.
00:20:33I understand it.
00:20:35I just think Milwaukee's playing really good ball led by Giannis right now.
00:20:39Frankly, I'm not sure I want Dame out there with what we saw over the final eight games of the regular season for the Bucks, winning in all eight of those.
00:20:4710-4 in their last 14, 19-10 since the All-Star break.
00:20:52In the numbers for that series, minus 220 in favor of the Pacers yesterday before the positive news on Damian Lillard.
00:20:59Minus 178 as of this Friday morning.
00:21:02Now, minus 164.
00:21:04The odds continue to back the Bucks, expecting them to be competitive as the slight underdog.
00:21:10DRS, your X factor for the opening round of the playoffs and maybe beyond is who?
00:21:16It's pretty simple.
00:21:17It's Norm Powell.
00:21:18The A, B, and C options.
00:21:21I always like to go for the B and C options here.
00:21:23You know Kawhi Leonard is going to lead that team.
00:21:26You know James Harden is going to lead that team.
00:21:28But you know what you need in the middle of a game, which is hard fun going back and forth?
00:21:32Dagger three-point shots.
00:21:33And that's what Powell can give you here as playing that sort of Batman to Robin's Robin, if you will.
00:21:39Norm Powell's been my guy the entire season, made me quite a bit of money on three-point props.
00:21:43And this is the guy that we jump into in the playoffs and back.
00:21:48Now, I could be JY and tell you he'll be SGA right now is that X factor.
00:21:52But I'm not going to do that.
00:21:53We're going Norm Powell, baby.
00:21:54We're going Norm Powell.
00:21:56How about that?
00:21:56We round off our NBA playoff pick six here in this segment before Chris Meany joins us to talk a little bit of the puck
00:22:04as we get ready for the Stanley Cup playoffs starting tomorrow as well.
00:22:08DRS's X factor, big will, Norman Powell.
00:22:12I wonder if anybody in Norman Powell's life has ever called him will to his face.
00:22:17But we do that here on the early line.
00:22:21DRS, what has been one of our favorite bets on Norman Powell all year?
00:22:24Death, taxes, three-plus made three.
00:22:27You're giving it to me at a plus 110 price for the series opener tomorrow at altitude against the Nuggets?
00:22:33I'd just bet it.
00:22:34I think it's a disrespectful price on Big Willie.
00:22:38Probably should just go right in there and say, you know what?
00:22:40Make him the highest score of that game.
00:22:42What's that, Mark?
00:22:42It's got to be a pretty good penny to get back on my guy Big Will dropping 20-plus points in that game to have a chance to be the most effective player in that series.
00:22:50By the way, too, we need the three-ball to go down.
00:22:53That is a key contributor here, and he's going to be open with shots in that series, and that's why I put it to me, the X factor.
00:22:59And X factor doesn't mean he's going to score 25 every night, but I want to see that game script there.
00:23:0332-33 minutes, very efficient from the floor.
00:23:06Five three-point shots, at least two or three of those made each and every night, just to give you that secondary scoring option that you're going to need.
00:23:12And, again, I'm focused on the Clippers.
00:23:14I want them to do well because that price point, I thought, was a little bit higher than what it should be, and that disrespect starts in round number one.
00:23:21If you can get past Denver, maybe you are opening up eyes like, wow, the Clippers are healthy here and playing good basketball.
00:23:2716-1 price on Norm Powell to be the game's leading scorer for game number one tomorrow against Denver.
00:23:35DRS, if I was going to bet any conference price at this moment, all around the NBA, west or east, I think that only spot I would dive into before the playoffs begin, either you have missed a good number or I don't think there is all that great value out there, would be on the Clippers to win the Western Conference crown at 12-1 if, and it's a big if, everybody remains healthy.
00:23:58Of course, the Clippers in franchise history have never won a conference title.
00:24:02They got to the Western Conference Finals back in 2021 under Ty Lue in his first year, but I think that's where you go.
00:24:12As we're learning from our producer, Joe Frieza, Norm Powell's middle name is officially WC.
00:24:18Did you know that?
00:24:20No, wild card Will right there, man.
00:24:22It's got to be what it is, right?
00:24:23You know what I mean?
00:24:24Also, his name is Norm Powell.
00:24:26You could be like Norm Will Powell-er, right?
00:24:30Will Power.
00:24:30There's many ways you can bend it around.
00:24:32Roll right off the tongue, man.
00:24:33Fantastic.
00:24:34Put it on a t-shirt.
00:24:36Yeah, Will Power.
00:24:36Roll right off the tongue.
00:24:37Come on now.
00:24:38Listen, you know, this show becomes many of things, right?
00:24:41We have a couple of our guys.
00:24:43Vinny Pasquantino.
00:24:44Vinny P, the Pasquatch last year.
00:24:46He was our guy around Major League Baseball.
00:24:49We have found those guys throughout each and every season.
00:24:52Who was the guy with Robert, the gas can gasser?
00:24:56We loved him.
00:24:57Milwaukee Brewer, starting pitcher.
00:24:58All that good stuff.
00:24:59Big Will has been our guy all year long in the NBA, Norm Powell.
00:25:03Now we're huge Doug Christie guys on this show as well.
00:25:06We'd love to get anybody on.
00:25:08They want to come have a conversation with us.
00:25:11Maybe Norm Powell can make some time throughout his busy playoff schedule.
00:25:16DRS, my X Factor, and I did clear this, despite the fact he is Detroit's leading scorer and an NBA All-Star for the first time in his four-year career.
00:25:26That would be Cade Cunningham.
00:25:28The reason I would consider him an X Factor, despite being the Pistons' best player, is because the Pistons are not expected to do much against the New York Knicks.
00:25:38But Cade Cunningham will be the reason why Detroit at least covers, getting two and a half games, forcing at least a sixth game against the Knicks in the opening round of the postseason.
00:25:5026 points per game, nine assists per game, best career marks for the former number one overall pick back in 2021.
00:26:00First time as an All-Star this year, Detroit basketball, Cade Cunningham, my X Factor.
00:26:08Are you okay with it?
00:26:10No, I'm not okay with it.
00:26:11You disqualified yourself the way you set that up.
00:26:14I know he's their best player.
00:26:16You can't be an X Factor if you're the best player.
00:26:19So if you were to use the terminology of he's their best player, I might have just slipped around.
00:26:23I couldn't get by the first sentence at that point.
00:26:26You know what?
00:26:26I don't think he could be there.
00:26:28Even though he's the best player in the league, I don't think he could be MVP.
00:26:30Ah, kind of disqualifies.
00:26:31He's the best player.
00:26:32He's the MVP at that point.
00:26:33But we'll let it slide.
00:26:34Look, if he cashes tickets, we do let things slide.
00:26:37You know what I mean?
00:26:38Like, if he wins that series and it's like, hey, they easily covered the two and a half games.
00:26:42Like, you know what?
00:26:42That guy was the X Factor to me getting an X amount of dollars on the back end.
00:26:47It might seem like something a non-ball knower would say that Cade Cunningham is an X Factor.
00:26:53I do understand that.
00:26:55I...
00:26:55Oh, my God.
00:26:57Excuse me.
00:26:57See that?
00:26:58Yep.
00:26:58Now you're getting attacked by the gambling gods right now.
00:27:00Yep.
00:27:00They're getting you for good live on the air.
00:27:02Like, we're not letting Ben slip out of the way.
00:27:04You won't even...
00:27:05They don't even give you a chance to explain yourself at this point.
00:27:07Which is key.
00:27:08Matt Oben.
00:27:09I like it.
00:27:09New York Knicks cover it.
00:27:10New York Knicks in the gentleman's sweep, I think, is what this means.
00:27:14Oh, unfortunate for us.
00:27:16Again, seems like a non-ball knower if you say that Cade Cunningham is the X Factor.
00:27:22And I try not to be a non-ball knower.
00:27:25I understand how great of a season Cunningham is having.
00:27:28The best in his four-year career.
00:27:30Matching that expectation as the first overall pick back in 2021.
00:27:36I hope, DRS, I'm giving a slide.
00:27:38And I hope Detroit basketball at least gets it to six games in the opening round against
00:27:44the New York Knicks.
00:27:45A special that you can bet in the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
00:27:49DRS, where we sprinkling some plus money.
00:27:52Yeah, let's have some fun, too.
00:27:53Because, again, all eyes and attention from me a lot on that Clippers and Nuggets series,
00:27:57which I do think is going to be a good one.
00:27:58I think it's going to be an extended series and maybe has a chance to go seven total games,
00:28:02which means if I get seven games in, why not look in that direction with close games at
00:28:07the end?
00:28:07I'm not asking for any crazy statistical anomaly.
00:28:10I'm just asking for a little bit more extra basketball, which means one of those games
00:28:16in that Clippers-Nuggets series does get to overtime.
00:28:19And if it does, that's a plus 185 price.
00:28:22It's defensive basketball.
00:28:24It's close games.
00:28:25The spreads are going to be between, what, two and four points all the way through.
00:28:28It feels like, regardless of who's the favorite, one of those games should be able to get to
00:28:32overtime.
00:28:32And then it doesn't matter who wins it.
00:28:34You just need to get to the overtime stanza.
00:28:36Plus 185.
00:28:37I'll go that direction as a special.
00:28:39I love that, DRS.
00:28:41And to get to seven games is the shortest price.
00:28:43I really look at that series.
00:28:45Go in the distance, but at least six.
00:28:47So you're going to have, at least in our estimation, six opportunities for one game to go to OT.
00:28:53As Donnie said, Denver, a two and a half point home favorite in the opening game of the set
00:28:58tomorrow afternoon.
00:28:59I think that is going to be the indication of what we see mostly throughout this series.
00:29:04A couple of points here and there, depending on home floor advantage throughout this series.
00:29:09DRS, if you look at every playoff series right now, there's a fun market for at least one
00:29:15game-winning buzzer beater as time expires.
00:29:19It is the case in every series.
00:29:21It is the same pricing in every series.
00:29:24To have zero, obviously, is the hefty favorite.
00:29:27Two plus is a crazy number.
00:29:29One plus game-winning buzzer beater.
00:29:31In any series, you can bet it at plus 1,000 for any of the six we have right now.
00:29:37Go sprinkle on the series you think is close.
00:29:40Could it be a Denver and LA series?
00:29:44Could it be Luka or LeBron at the horn?
00:29:47Steph making some splashes in San Francisco.
00:29:51Jalen Brunson, X-Factor, Cade Cunningham in the opening round series.
00:29:55Dame time back for Milwaukee.
00:29:58I think it's a fun bet.
00:29:59Find your series more likely.
00:30:01Or put a small pizza bet on every single series.
00:30:05And if one hits at plus 1,000, you're raking in the cash.
00:30:09Round one of the NBA playoffs starts tomorrow.
00:30:13Four games on Saturday.
00:30:15All of them already set.
00:30:17Four more games to come on Sunday.
00:30:19So round one, game one.
00:30:22Best bet, DRS.
00:30:23Where do you look?
00:30:25I like a takeover.
00:30:26In the garden by Jalen Brunson.
00:30:28We know once playoff time comes.
00:30:29And yes, a lot of injuries last year which said,
00:30:31you know what, Jalen, you better carry the weight of this franchise on your shoulders
00:30:35before you basically get injured yourself.
00:30:37Game number one, fresh, ready to go.
00:30:39I expect a monster outing from Brunson.
00:30:41And also, in a Pistons game, I do think we're going to have some pretty good tempo back and
00:30:44forth.
00:30:45Not looking at one of those 213s, 212 type games.
00:30:48I think this game is going to go higher scoring there.
00:30:50And Brunson's going to be a big factor.
00:30:51I think Brunson legitimately can get into the 30s, but he doesn't have to do that.
00:30:5528 or more points cashes that ticket.
00:30:58Jalen Brunson over 27.5 points.
00:31:00There's a prop bet.
00:31:01I'd like that for tomorrow.
00:31:03Give me over 28.5 for Luka Doncic in the nightcap for the Lakers against the T-Wolves.
00:31:08This is why you get Luka, who has the second highest scoring average in his playoff career
00:31:14at 30.9 points per game, only behind MJ.
00:31:17More on the early line next.
00:31:19Welcome to hour number three, our third and final on this Friday on the early line, our
00:31:24final hour of the week here on TEL.
00:31:27So much to preview to set the stage for a monumental weekend in sports.
00:31:32NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs start tomorrow on a Saturday with a slew of games coming your
00:31:39way.
00:31:40It is postseason time.
00:31:41And that includes the NBA's play in tournament, a double enter of games to become the eighth
00:31:47seed in either conference tonight that we'll preview here in this to start this third and
00:31:52final hour.
00:31:53Our coach, JY James Young, joins us later on in this third and final hour to look at
00:31:58the NBA playoffs beginning.
00:31:59And of course, DRS, my friend, you have made it.
00:32:04It is a good Friday.
00:32:05Some MLB games to preview on this full Friday slate up next as well.
00:32:09Yep, looking forward to lunch here, powering through this final hour, having some fun the
00:32:15rest of the afternoon, a nice little Saturday with temperatures in the 80s on the East Coast
00:32:19here.
00:32:19Some NBA action throughout this weekend, Major League Baseball getting you ready.
00:32:23And then off into the spring, we go with good temperatures and good vibes here, which
00:32:28includes this hour number three.
00:32:31No doubt about it, DRS.
00:32:32And as we start off this third and final hour, we talk to play in tournament.
00:32:38A two, a double header of games tonight, if you will.
00:32:42First in Atlanta, the Hawks take on the Heat to become the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference,
00:32:47awaiting an opening round matchup against the Cavaliers.
00:32:50Our nightcap in Memphis, the Grizzlies and the Mavs to become the eighth seed out west to
00:32:55take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in that opening round.
00:32:59A reward, of course, for winning tonight, but not exactly the brightest pastures once
00:33:05you reach the NBA playoffs.
00:33:07The RS will talk about the voter enthusiasm for the play in tournament up next.
00:33:13But we want to hear from the people.
00:33:15Of course, we do it each and every day.
00:33:17It's Fade the Public.
00:33:17Three of our last four days, we have done a Fade the Public poll around the play in tournament
00:33:30around the association.
00:33:31And if you include yesterday's results for our favorite playoffs of our four major men's
00:33:36professional sports leagues in North America, just not a lot of juice to start the postseason
00:33:43in the NBA, 65 votes on Tuesday, around 90 votes on Wednesday, 76 votes on this Friday
00:33:51for our play in tournament conversations at SportsGrid on Twitter, who will win tonight's
00:33:58NBA play in tourney games, combine them for a two leg money line parlay, only 76 votes
00:34:04at this moment.
00:34:05But most of the public, around 41% of the public, calling for a couple of upsets.
00:34:13On this Friday, the Heat and the Mavs, who are a six-point road underdog in the grind
00:34:19city.
00:34:20Yeah, the interesting part about that, too, is, look, I understand the Heat might be better
00:34:24than the, you know, the Atlanta Hawks and or the Mavericks might be better than the Grizzlies.
00:34:28But we're also talking about two teams that are leading this at 41 per 6% of the vote
00:34:33are the road teams here.
00:34:34So we're not even just going to take a coin flip and say home field advantage does or home
00:34:38court advantage does matter.
00:34:39But even me, like I actually voted Heat and Mavericks.
00:34:42We're looking at that line.
00:34:43It looks too easy.
00:34:43Like everybody is betting the Miami Heat and even some outlets here have the Heat shown
00:34:48as a minus one point favorite now.
00:34:50We'll see where that gets up close to game time.
00:34:52But the Mavericks also leaving a pretty good taste in your mouth saying, boy, last time
00:34:55I watched the Mavericks, they looked pretty good here entering into their matchup.
00:34:58And then we don't know if John Morant's a complete 100% healthy with that ankle injury.
00:35:03They lost their playing game to the Golden State Warriors now coming home to try to get into
00:35:07the playoffs in a victory on their home court.
00:35:08So for me, I like the way the Mavericks played legitimate chance they can win.
00:35:12I think the Miami Heat just that more of that pedigree of an organization with Eric Spolster
00:35:16and how well they played against Chicago, I think as a chance to propel them through as
00:35:20well.
00:35:20So I did go Heat and the Mavericks.
00:35:22Am I in love with those two picks?
00:35:24Not necessarily because the Mavericks obviously getting five and a half to six points depending
00:35:27on where you're shopping at at this point right now.
00:35:30In DRS, that's the case, right?
00:35:33To have the money line pick them basically between the Heat and the Hawks tonight in Atlanta.
00:35:37All right, we'll talk about what the odds are expecting in just a moment.
00:35:41But to back the Dallas Mavericks, as strong as the public is right now, getting five points
00:35:47or getting six points is a little bit insane.
00:35:50Is it just as simple for us as we saw both the Mavs and the Heat win by double digits being
00:35:57in controlling fashion on Wednesday?
00:35:59And we saw both the Grizzlies and the Hawks lose?
00:36:03But that's the makeup of the play-in tournament.
00:36:06When you're in the 7-8 game, you have the opportunity to drop a game and still not be
00:36:11eliminated.
00:36:11Not the case for the Mavericks nor the Heat, of course, on Wednesday.
00:36:16That was an elimination game for Miami in Chicago, for Dallas in Sacramento.
00:36:21And Donnie, we are seeing a lot of public betting love for both of the underdogs.
00:36:27The number for the Mavericks and the Grizzlies, okay, 63% of the money on the spread backing
00:36:33Dallas.
00:36:34It worked from a six-and-a-half-point number to six.
00:36:37Pretty understandable there in Memphis tonight.
00:36:40The one that is really intriguing, 75% of the money on the spread backing Miami, who was
00:36:47a one-point underdog to open.
00:36:49Yesterday flipped to the slight favorite.
00:36:51Now they are getting one point again, an 18 cents of distinction now in those updated
00:36:56money line prices.
00:36:5875% looking at the Heat, and yet the market working back ever so slightly to Atlanta.
00:37:05Is it one of those fishy lines?
00:37:08Perhaps.
00:37:09So much public love, DRS.
00:37:11If you are looking to fade to public, it's pretty easy tonight.
00:37:14Hawks, money line, outright at home in the A.
00:37:17Hey, Memphis, either money line combined with Atlanta or the Grizz to cover as a six-point
00:37:23home favorite.
00:37:24Yeah, it will be a public explosion tonight, right?
00:37:26If you do take a look at the Miami Heat going on the road and winning that game, and then
00:37:29also end or the Dallas Mavericks covering or winning outright in their game.
00:37:33And understand this too, as we talked about, home court advantage does mean something.
00:37:36You play the entire season to make sure you get these games on your home court.
00:37:39We even heard Trey Young talk about that after that loss to Orlando, where they didn't
00:37:42play well.
00:37:42It's like, hey, we put ourselves in position to play a couple games here in the play.
00:37:47And one of those games would be on our home court, which it is tonight at this point.
00:37:50So we'll see how well they play.
00:37:52I just, I didn't like the Hawks as on the season.
00:37:55They didn't necessarily love the Heat, but they're playing a little bit better down the
00:37:57stretch post-Jimmy Butler.
00:37:58And you expect that they possibly could go in and win.
00:38:01And that's what the numbers are reflecting.
00:38:02At the FanDuel Sportsbook, minus one right now, as a slight favorite to the Hawks, which
00:38:06shows a lot of respect to the Miami Heat.
00:38:08And then vice versa, the Dallas Mavericks taking on the Grizzlies.
00:38:11That line opened up at six and a half, has dipped to six.
00:38:13Most outlets are showing six and a half.
00:38:15And we'll see where that goes.
00:38:16But we did like what we saw out of the Dallas Mavericks going up against the Sacramento Kings.
00:38:20And maybe, again, nothing anybody disliked what the Grizzlies did.
00:38:23They were underdogs in that game, fought hard, had a lead late, just couldn't hold on at
00:38:26that point.
00:38:27And we'll see if John Morant, how healthy he is.
00:38:29So we're expecting competitive games tonight, 7 o'clock and 9.30 p.m.
00:38:33Because apparently if they put it on a 10 o'clock, nobody would watch it.
00:38:37But during the week, we put them on a 10 o'clock.
00:38:38So congratulations on the 9.30 start tonight, NBA.
00:38:42I was waiting for something there in terms of scheduling and timing tonight for the Friday
00:38:47night doubleheaders of play in tourney games.
00:38:50DRS, as we look at the Mavericks and the Grizz tonight in the grind city, John Morant does
00:38:54have a points prop, second highest of the night at 26 and a half.
00:38:59What was the conversation we had around Dallas pulling off the outright upset against Sacramento
00:39:03on Wednesday when Anthony Davis has been healthy for the Mavs since his return from the adductor
00:39:09strain in his Dallas debut?
00:39:11They have won six of nine games.
00:39:13AD only had 27 and nine on Wednesday, not his most efficient performance.
00:39:19His points prop today, 27 and a half, 23 for Klay Thompson, including five made triples.
00:39:27If you believe in the Mavericks tonight, where you're looking from a points prop perspective.
00:39:32Mavericks for me tonight, you know, it's probably still going to be Anthony Davis on that level.
00:39:36We got burned a little bit, didn't we?
00:39:37In that last game, like, hey, you know what?
00:39:38Let's at least get that double-double.
00:39:40Goes 27 points, I believe, and only had nine rebounds.
00:39:42I expect a ramped up performance because the one thing we do know in the past, the Memphis
00:39:46Grizzlies were about defense and slowing it down.
00:39:48That's no longer the case.
00:39:49I look for a decent tempo game tonight, which again, centered around Anthony Davis.
00:39:53If we can get that 25 and 12-plus rebound performance, which I do believe could be in the cards,
00:39:59that's something I would be looking at.
00:40:00But also, Zach Eady's a giant on the opposite side, which can snipe some of those rebounds
00:40:04that AD typically would just eat.
00:40:07Zach Eady, by the way, 10 and a half was his rebounding prop for the opening game in the
00:40:11play-in tournament against Golden State.
00:40:13Skied over that with a 14.17 rebound performance.
00:40:16How about Zach Eady to score 10 in Memphis to win tonight?
00:40:19Player performance double, plus 118.
00:40:23Keep an eye on Desmond Bain as well.
00:40:24Over 21 and a half points.
00:40:26DRS Eastern Conference, 38-point performance for Tyler Hero in that win in Chicago a few
00:40:33nights ago.
00:40:34Live right here on this Friday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:40:39The scouting report from our coach, James Young, JY, as we get ready for the NBA playoffs
00:40:44to officially start tomorrow, a quadruple header of games on a Saturday, followed by four
00:40:49more on Sunday, with two more spots still left up for grabs on this Friday night in the
00:40:55play-in tournament.
00:40:57JY, so much to get to here in the NBA postseason.
00:41:00We're excited to have you.
00:41:02Good to be on with you, as Donnie Wright-Side is so excited about these NBA playoffs to go off
00:41:08tomorrow.
00:41:09Before he heads off to the money line, JY, he is happy to spend some more time talking
00:41:14about games and series he has spent the entire week discussing.
00:41:18But that's why we have you here, to get your analysis and insight, which is far above ours.
00:41:24All right, JY, we go rapid fire around the three series that we know already in both the
00:41:29Western Conference right now and the Eastern Conference up next.
00:41:33We'll talk game one, then series.
00:41:36Back and forth we go.
00:41:37Let's start with the series that sees the largest spread in favor of any team at the
00:41:42moment in the Western Conference.
00:41:44That's the LA Lakers against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
00:41:47Game one is our nightcap on a Saturday.
00:41:49The Lakers a four-point home favorite, total 216.5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
00:41:55JY, what will game one of this opening round series tell us about what we are going to see
00:42:00the remainder of the way between Anthony Edwards and Minnesota, LeBron, Luka, and the Lakers?
00:42:05It's going to be about how much can Anthony Edwards carry this team.
00:42:10Simply put, you know, I like him to have the most serious points at plus 165.
00:42:15So game one, it's going to be a little bit of a test.
00:42:17And I think Anthony is going to try and push the pace a little bit because I don't see anyone
00:42:22on the Lakers team that could stop it.
00:42:24That being said, I do like the Lakers do to cover the game in a really tight contest,
00:42:28minus four.
00:42:30I think the game will stay around that 216.5.
00:42:33But this is going to be a long series, Ben, a long series that I would take the plus one
00:42:40and a half games for Minnesota at minus 148.
00:42:43This thing's going to be a long series, probably going seven.
00:42:48We take a look at the Lakers as a favorite here at the Fan Blue Sportsbook for the series
00:42:51price at a minus 186, which is a heavy favorite.
00:42:53And I do think it's going to be a very competitive series.
00:42:56What can the Timberwolves do to frustrate the Los Angeles Lakers superstar in this series,
00:43:00JY?
00:43:01Well, I just think the fact that what you want to engage Luka defensively, this is a Luka
00:43:05Dodgers that struggles defensively sometimes to stay focused.
00:43:08I think, and it's got to be an issue.
00:43:10And I think they have to be able to counteract what JJ Redick does in regards to the center
00:43:15position.
00:43:16Do they play more minutes with Jackson Hayes and maybe a little bit of Alex Lenn?
00:43:19Or do they give the minutes with Rui Hachimura?
00:43:22Obviously, Coach Fritz has got to be able to adjust, play Rudy against the bigs.
00:43:27But I think the bigger problem the Lakers have is I think if they go small with Rui Hachimura,
00:43:32I think Nasri kicks his tail the entire series.
00:43:34So you've got to be able to see which way JJ Redick goes and then counteract that with
00:43:39your bigs.
00:43:39So I think that's where the advantage could also lie with Minnesota.
00:43:43Luka Doncic has found his scoring stroke now in the purple and gold.
00:43:4730-plus in four the last five that he played to end out the regular season for the Lakers.
00:43:52It was Luka Doncic kicking the tail of everybody on the Timberwolves last year, namely Rudy
00:43:57Gobert.
00:43:5728-plus in all five in the Western Conference Finals as a member of the Mavericks against
00:44:03the Timberwolves.
00:44:0432-plus in four of the five.
00:44:07We shared it earlier.
00:44:08This is why you get Luka Doncic.
00:44:10Not just for the next 10 to 12 years, but for what he does in the postseason.
00:44:1530.9 points per game.
00:44:17His scoring average in his playoff career.
00:44:20Second most in NBA history.
00:44:22Only behind Michael Jordan, who is it better than 33 points per game.
00:44:27You've got LeBron and Luka in a playoff series, a formidable pair.
00:44:31J.Y., let's get to our next series in game number one on Sunday.
00:44:36The two-seed is the Houston Rockets.
00:44:38Oh, get excited.
00:44:39The Rockets have home floor advantage in their opening round set against the Golden State
00:44:43Warriors.
00:44:44And yet, it's the Dubs as a series favorite and with the third-best place to win the
00:44:49Western Conference.
00:44:50But, J.Y., make sense of it for us here.
00:44:53The Rockets are a series underdog, despite having home floor advantage and being an ever-so-slight
00:44:59favorite for Sunday's game one.
00:45:02How does that make sense to you?
00:45:04And what does it ultimately mean for this opening round set?
00:45:08As a basketball coach and as someone that's watched Houston grow, it does not make sense
00:45:13to me.
00:45:14But to the casual basketball fan who doesn't know enough about a fair and should go in
00:45:19Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Fred VanVleet.
00:45:21You can keep going on and on and on.
00:45:24Yeah, it's easy to go look at the pedigree on the other side and see Steph Draymond and
00:45:27play off Jimmy there and think, oh, well, they're just a better team.
00:45:31But it's funny how the numbers came out right after Golden State won, and you've seen the
00:45:36series betting price start to come back the other way.
00:45:40Probably about a half a dollar, I would say, if not more, because people are starting to
00:45:45believe this is a Rockets team.
00:45:46I think this game is, I think this is another one going seven.
00:45:49I think the West is going to be wild except for 1-8.
00:45:51Except for 1-8, I think it's going to be wild.
00:45:54So to me, I'm thinking the Houston Rockets plus the one and a half games in the series
00:45:58betting.
00:45:59And I'm also going to go and I'm going to take Houston on the money line to win game
00:46:03number one.
00:46:03This may be a zigzag series, go back, forth, back, forth, back, forth.
00:46:07Then we get the game seven.
00:46:09And that's where you get nervous about Houston because then it's game seven, Steph Curry.
00:46:14Either way, I think they're getting three wins in this.
00:46:16So I'm going to take Houston plus the one and a half games.
00:46:19I love it because I do think there's a lot of disrespect on the Houston Rockets, but
00:46:23the opinion approach here too, coach, because sometimes it's a seven game series regardless.
00:46:26Like you can't win it in the first game, but I feel like that public opinion is going
00:46:30to sway so much more.
00:46:31Like, let's just say the Rockets win this game by double digits in game number one.
00:46:35Now we got a series.
00:46:36Now they're involved.
00:46:37That's why they're the two seed, but also the opposite direction, coach.
00:46:40Like talk to me about this.
00:46:41Let's say Golden State does go in and wins game number one in Houston by double digits.
00:46:46Does that change your mind on the series or is it a buy-in point on Houston that they'll
00:46:50get it together?
00:46:51I may buy it again.
00:46:53I may buy it again because if Golden State, especially Donnie, if Golden State goes in
00:46:57and beats them, let's say by 10, 15 points on the road, you'll see them go to more than
00:47:03two to one favorite to win the series, right?
00:47:06And you'll see it start to swing.
00:47:08So I think this is what he's serious where you can kind of bounce yourself around.
00:47:12If you're Houston and you bet them now, they lose game one, you go and you buy back in because
00:47:19you're going to get better odds than you were before.
00:47:21I think it's going to be a series, guys.
00:47:23I think if Houston had guys on their team that were quote-unquote top 25 players in the
00:47:30world, they wouldn't be getting this disrespect.
00:47:33It's because of the fact that a lot of people don't know these guys, and honestly, they should.
00:47:37They should.
00:47:38They should.
00:47:39Jalen Green, Alperen Shingun, and some veteran presence from Fred VanVleet as well.
00:47:44And then Thompson might be one of the great athletes that we have developing within the
00:47:49NBA.
00:47:50I do agree with you, J.Y., based on the results of each and every game in this set between
00:47:55the Rockets and the Warriors, I think not just after game one, but after games three
00:47:59and five, and however long we go, we are going to see some wildly drastic swings in that
00:48:05series price.
00:48:06We have already seen that in our 4-5 split in the Western Conference.
00:48:10The Clippers, the five seed, without home for advantage, open as the underdog.
00:48:15They get ready for game number one tomorrow at Altitude in Denver as the series' outright
00:48:20favorite, and yet they're getting two and a half points.
00:48:24J.Y., we expect game one to be competitive.
00:48:26We expect the entirety of this series to be tightly contested as well.
00:48:31What are we going to see tomorrow in Mile High?
00:48:33Where we're going to see how much Nikola Jokic can put his team on his back again.
00:48:40And this critical matchup is going to be not just the fact of Nikola Jokic, but Ivanka Zubak,
00:48:45who, let's be honest, folks, he really should be, if you really think about the award, should
00:48:50be the most improved player in the NBA.
00:48:53I know it's going to go to Kane.
00:48:54We all know it, but it should go to Ivanka Zubak.
00:48:57And this is going to be interesting because I think you're looking at how much, like,
00:49:02Kawhi.
00:49:02Kawhi is such a lightning rod because last year he was healthy.
00:49:06He was fine.
00:49:07And all of a sudden, after game two of the playoffs, he was gone.
00:49:10So you never know what's going to happen with Kawhi.
00:49:12This is a long series.
00:49:13Over, under five and a half games is minus 215.
00:49:16What's I telling you, folks?
00:49:18It's going seven.
00:49:19Another one.
00:49:20Back and forth, back and forth.
00:49:21I think it's Denver in seven.
00:49:24You think it's Denver in seven?
00:49:26That was going to be my question for you.
00:49:28What is the series prediction?
00:49:29The Nuggets with interim head coach David Adelman.
00:49:32They have won all three games they needed to to maintain home court advantage for the opening
00:49:37round of the playoffs.
00:49:39They have covered in all three as well.
00:49:42Going to be a great set between the Clippers and the Nuggets.
00:49:45We just know it.
00:49:47The scouting report from JY continues to the Eastern Conference playoffs next around the
00:49:53association from the Western Conference to the Eastern Conference in the NBA playoffs
00:49:58starting tomorrow.
00:49:59The scouting report remains the same.
00:50:01It's JY James Young live right here on this Friday on the early line.
00:50:06All right, JY game number one tomorrow in prime time.
00:50:10How else would you want to spend your Saturday other than being at the world's most famous
00:50:15arena inside Madison Square Garden?
00:50:18It's the New York Knicks hosting the Detroit Pistons.
00:50:21A seven point spread in favor of New York inside MSG.
00:50:27It was supposed to be a comfortable win for the Knicks in the series opener.
00:50:31Supposed to be a rather comfortable opening round set for Tom Thibodeau and his crew.
00:50:37But can Detroit basketball make things difficult?
00:50:42JY, if the Pistons are going to make this a lengthy series, how important is their effort
00:50:47to at least keep the game close in cover tomorrow night in game number one?
00:50:52I think it's critically important.
00:50:54And you can argue that at points, Kate Cunningham may be the best player in this series.
00:51:00And yeah, I said it, and I'm a Knick fan.
00:51:03And I think that's important to understand is how they defend.
00:51:06What does Mikkel Bridges do in regards to defending him?
00:51:10Does what is OG?
00:51:11I don't know if these guys are trying to distract me here with X Factor here.
00:51:14But listen, at the end of the day, I think Detroit coverage is spread.
00:51:19I think we're in for a somewhat long series.
00:51:22I think this is going six or seven.
00:51:24Coach, how about this?
00:51:25I want to back you up.
00:51:26Jalen Brunson is my favorite pick in round number one for a prop at the over 27 and a
00:51:30half points.
00:51:31I think he instills himself as the playoff leader with a high usage rate and a good tempo
00:51:36game.
00:51:36How about that?
00:51:38I like it, but I don't like it if it's late game situation where Tom Thibodeau just gives
00:51:44the ball to Jalen Brunson and he dribble out the clock.
00:51:46I think the Knicks have to show more of the summiter parts.
00:51:49I think, I'm going to be honest with you, I think Bridges and Ananobi are going to play
00:51:52critical roles in this series, not just defensively, but offensively.
00:51:56When Brunson got hurt, those guys, especially OG, stepped up, so they put the ball in their
00:52:01hands a little bit more and let them score.
00:52:03I expect Beasley to probably take Brunson, probably Cunningham goes to Josh Hart.
00:52:07So you may look at that front court with OG and Bridges, see that's where they try and
00:52:13exploit a young team in Detroit.
00:52:16J.Y., just to give you some context, earlier in the show, we did our NBA playoff pick six
00:52:21with the blessing of our producer, Joe Frizzo.
00:52:23Because I think the Pistons keep this series competitive, I listed Cade Cunningham as my
00:52:28X-Factor.
00:52:29Donnie had an issue with me calling Cade Cunningham an X-Factor, of which I admitted that an
00:52:34NBA All-Star is not exactly an X-Factor.
00:52:38And of course, it brought up some ideas of Kentucky being a sleeper with the fifth best national
00:52:43championship price last year.
00:52:45You know how things go.
00:52:47So I think Donnie was making fun of me in supporting you.
00:52:51All right, let's talk about our first game of four.
00:52:54Yeah, kind of.
00:52:55Our first game of four tomorrow to start the NBA playoffs in Indianapolis.
00:53:01It's the Pacers and the Bucs.
00:53:02J.Y., some really good injury news for Damian Lillard and Milwaukee yesterday.
00:53:07Going to miss game one, but could be back in this opening round set.
00:53:11Not what we expected earlier at the end of the regular season for the Bucs.
00:53:16Without Damian in the lineup tomorrow, Milwaukee a five and a half point road.
00:53:20Underdog against Indiana in Indy.
00:53:24What do you make of game number one?
00:53:26What does it mean for the series?
00:53:28I like Indiana minus the points at game number one.
00:53:31I think this is going to be a total of 225.
00:53:34I think it's going to soar over this.
00:53:35I don't think you're going to see a ton of defense either side.
00:53:38Indiana does what Indiana does.
00:53:39And Milwaukee's not strong defensively.
00:53:41And an older team, I think they're going to struggle to stop the fast break.
00:53:44If you're Indiana and you know that Dame time is coming at some point in the series.
00:53:48My prediction is probably game three.
00:53:51I think you got to come out of this 2-0.
00:53:54You can't come in 1-1 with Damian Lillard coming back into his own building, possibly for a game three and a swing game.
00:54:00So to me, I do like 2-0 to be the start for Indiana.
00:54:04And I do think they cover the five and a half point spread and win the series.
00:54:10Yeah, it is intriguing to see which game Dame actually comes back.
00:54:13No official announcement on when he is coming back, but it looks like he is going to come back.
00:54:17And that could help Milwaukee.
00:54:19Let's flip it over to a series that basically on the odds, coach, is already done.
00:54:22It's a wrap.
00:54:22The Boston Celtics taking on the Orlando Magic.
00:54:25The price point for the series, minus $8,000.
00:54:28If you're just looking for the Orlando Magic to steal one game, you can cash in a ticket.
00:54:33So I do want to start there with the series as a whole.
00:54:36Orlando fought their way into the playing round, won easily against Atlanta, and now looks to be dispatched in a sweep year.
00:54:42So the question, JY, for me to you is, is this a sweep or is it a gentleman sweep where you can cash a ticket on Orlando with a plus, what, three and a half number, which is insane?
00:54:51Yeah, the plus three and a half number right now in finals, minus 158.
00:54:56And the series game over on the total, over four and a half games, over is at minus 158.
00:55:01So everybody's saying to you, there's a way that Orlando's going to get a game.
00:55:05The question is, is do you take a chance that they win two games or to me, you try to find the plus money, which is Boston correct score 4-1 at plus 152.
00:55:16That's why I think you go, if you go with them to win one game, you look at the fact that the one time that they played three times, plus money, obviously, three times they played that 1-0-8, 1-0-4 win by Orlando, in which Boston shot about 24% from the 3-4 line.
00:55:32They defend the three really well in Orlando.
00:55:34There'll be one game where Boston does not shoot the ball well enough from three.
00:55:37Orlando will grind out and get a win.
00:55:40I'd go 4-1 Boston at plus 152.
00:55:42That's the series perspective.
00:55:46These prices for the Celtics in the Eastern Conference playoffs the last two years now are not unfamiliar.
00:55:52This was really the numbers Boston saw last year.
00:55:55But the only team they swept in the Eastern Conference playoffs turned out to be the Pacers, who were not healthy in the Eastern Conference Finals.
00:56:01And that first game did go to overtime.
00:56:04Again, you bet Orlando, even laying minus 158 at plus three and a half.
00:56:08The Magic get to a fifth game.
00:56:10Bada bing, bada boom.
00:56:11You're cashing that ticket.
00:56:13So, J.Y., that's the series perspective.
00:56:15Game number one on Sunday inside TD Garden.
00:56:18Thirteen and a half points spread in favor of the Celtics.
00:56:22At some point, we are expecting a competitive game.
00:56:25Is it the opening game on Sunday in Beantown?
00:56:29No.
00:56:29I think it's game two.
00:56:31I think Boston's going to blow them out in game one.
00:56:34In game two, that's where you'll see maybe Boston come off the pedal a little bit.
00:56:38There's also the concern of Jalen Brown's knee.
00:56:40How does Joe Mazzulla play with the injection he got?
00:56:44But, oh, it's magic.
00:56:47They're going to steal one.
00:56:49And it may be game number two.
00:56:51I like that.
00:56:52Game two in Boston?
00:56:54Now, that would be something.
00:56:56J.Y., we appreciate the scouting report here on this Friday.
00:56:59J.Y. on betting above the rim tomorrow.
00:57:01Some in-game live action for the start of the playoffs in prime time alongside old K-Dubbs.
00:57:07He's going to be busy.
00:57:08A fadeaway to the break for J.Y.
00:57:10And also for Donnie to the money line.
00:57:12How about a home run call to the break?
00:57:14We'll finish out the early line next.
00:57:15Real quick.
00:57:17Live right here on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:57:19Ending out our three hours on this Friday.
00:57:23Rounding out our week together here on SportsGrid.
00:57:27We're going to do it by looking at the play in tourney games.
00:57:29One final time for tonight.
00:57:31One final chance for either team in Atlanta.
00:57:35It's the Hawks and the Heat in Memphis.
00:57:37It's the Grizzlies and the Mavericks to keep their season alive.
00:57:40To become an actual playoff team in the eighth seed in each conference.
00:57:45Let's start in Memphis.
00:57:47The Grizzlies, a six-point home favorite against the Dallas Mavericks.
00:57:50A lot of public betting love.
00:57:51More than 70% of the money when it comes to the spread betting.
00:57:55Backing the Mavericks right now.
00:57:57We saw Dallas win outright by 14 on Wednesday.
00:58:00As a five-point underdog against Sacramento.
00:58:03Memphis, of course, did not win in San Francisco against Golden State.
00:58:07But did cover the number as a six-and-a-half, seven-point road dog.
00:58:11They trailed by 20 points midway through the second quarter.
00:58:14Rallying all the way back in the second half.
00:58:16Even the Grizz taking an early lead in that fourth quarter.
00:58:19Even after John Morant twisted his ankle and did miss some time.
00:58:23Expected to play today.
00:58:26It is interesting, right?
00:58:27Finding the winner of this game.
00:58:29And you get to be a playoff team.
00:58:31And you're excited for the opportunity.
00:58:33To keep your season afloat.
00:58:35To actually get into the NBA playoffs.
00:58:38But your perspective this year against the one seed in the Western Conference.
00:58:44Not all that great.
00:58:45Because it's the NBA championship favorites.
00:58:48And the Oklahoma City Thunder.
00:58:49The best team this year in the NBA.
00:58:52With 68 wins.
00:58:54OKC really dominant against Memphis.
00:58:57Perfect.
00:58:594-0 this year.
00:59:01With a plus 75-point differential.
00:59:04In those four games.
00:59:06Shea Gilgis-Alexander.
00:59:07The frontrunner to win NBA MVP.
00:59:10The NBA's leading scorer this year.
00:59:12Really added to that scoring average against the Grizz.
00:59:15Better than 36 points per game.
00:59:18John did not play in one of those four matchups.
00:59:20Against the Thunder.
00:59:21But Oklahoma City thoroughly dominant.
00:59:24However.
00:59:25In the other game that they might see.
00:59:27Or the other series they could see against the Dallas Mavericks.
00:59:31OKC not nearly as good.
00:59:33For a team that only lost 14 games.
00:59:35All regular season long.
00:59:36Three of those 14 coming against Dallas.
00:59:40Is rather interesting.
00:59:41With a negative point differential.
00:59:43Against the Mavs.
00:59:44The first two games though.
00:59:46Were pre-Luka Doncic trade.
00:59:48However Luka did not play in that opening game of the year against OKC.
00:59:54Shea Gilgis-Alexander did not play in the third game against Dallas.
00:59:58And that led to an Oklahoma City Thunder loss.
01:00:01All that being said.
01:00:02If OKC is going to take on the Mavericks or the Grizz.
01:00:06We're talking a number that looks closer to what Boston is laying outright against the Magic.
01:00:10Than what the Clippers are laying outright against the Nuggets.
01:00:14This is probably going to be a minus 2,000 spread against either team.
01:00:19Now Memphis could be a very dangerous 8th seed.
01:00:21They won 48 games in the regular season.
01:00:24Very different as an 8th seed than either team we will see in the Eastern Conference.
01:00:29Whoever wins tonight will do so with a losing record to become the 8th seed out East.
01:00:34It's the Hawks and the Heat.
01:00:36So much public betting love on Miami.
01:00:3975% of the money on the spread bets backing the Heat.
01:00:44Again, it's only a point.
01:00:46So basically it's the same amount of money backing the money line you could presume.
01:00:51It did flip the line yesterday after we knew this would be our matchup tonight.
01:00:55After Miami hammered Chicago in Chicago on Wednesday.
01:00:59It did flip the line yesterday afternoon with all that public betting on Miami to the Heat side.
01:01:05They became a slight favorite.
01:01:07Well, despite 75% of the public backing Miami, we are now seeing Atlanta be even a stronger favorite.
01:01:14Minus 118 on that money line.
01:01:16Both teams incredibly comfortable in this spot.
01:01:19Fourth straight year for the Hawks in the play and tourney.
01:01:22Trey Young, despite being ejected on Tuesday in that game in Orlando, said, listen, this is why you work to be that 8th seed.
01:01:29This is why you work to not have your season come down to one game in your opening play and tourney game.
01:01:35You get the second chance and you have home floor advantage.
01:01:38Very comfortable for Miami as well.
01:01:40Third consecutive year in the play and tourney.
01:01:43But not just third straight year in the play and tourney.
01:01:45Third consecutive year the Heat will be in this elimination game to become the 8th seed.
01:01:51The previous two, they have knocked out the Chicago Bulls.
01:01:54Hoping to do that on the road tonight as the underdog against Atlanta.
01:01:58Meanwhile, winner of tonight will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
01:02:02The Cavs did lose back-to-back games against the Hawks in late November as they started 17-1.
01:02:10They beat the Heat in two of three games and Jimmy Butler played in Miami's win against Cleveland.
01:02:15He is now a member of the Golden State Warriors.
01:02:18What exactly will Cleveland be booked as?
01:02:20Because they are not the odds-on favorite to win the Eastern Conference despite being the one seed.
01:02:26Still a hefty favorite against either Miami or Atlanta.
01:02:29NBA playoffs begin this weekend.
01:02:32We'll talk to you on Monday.
01:02:33Have a great weekend.
01:02:35We'll see you next week on the Overlock.