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00:00And, Tom, let's take a look at the updated odds to win the most valuable player.
00:04You generally don't see this often a player this big a favorite to win any award in baseball.
00:09But it's kind of where we're at with Aaron Judge and, honestly, with Otani moving to the NL a couple of years ago.
00:15So Judge is minus 350, and we're going to have to find somebody better than the bet than this guy.
00:20Seven home runs, 22 runs driven in, two stolen bases, off to a great start.
00:25But I think the bottom line for this is that the one name that's popped in here, let me see if he's on the board there.
00:36The one name that's popped in here is Saderstrom. Is he on the board? I can't even see.
00:40Okay. So he is 50 to 1. That was the name that I was alluding to before.
00:45I mean, there's no way this guy's winning the MVP.
00:48But to me, that's the only name that's jumped into the fray here.
00:51I guess Trout has moved up in the offseason. He was not 30 to 1.
00:54I'm going to guess he was much higher. Now he is in there as well.
00:57I would love to be able to make the case for someone else just as a dart throw because this is sports and anything can happen.
01:05Players are healthy. Players get hurt. Things change.
01:08But provided Judge plays his, you know, 140 games or something like that, it's probably going to win the MVP.
01:15Right. So this is something that Donnie and I have talked about a ton on Pro Baseball today.
01:20Okay. The other answer is very clearly Bobby Witt. Now it's not a dart throw. It's not some super long shot.
01:26And I've been on the record to say I'm of the belief that the books are putting the judge number there at minus 150.
01:33Now it's minus 350, whoever it might be. They're putting it there simply to discourage people.
01:37Right. They just don't want people to bet it. They're going to put all this crazy juice on it.
01:41So you're never going to be getting a great return. They're just doing this to protect themselves at a certain point.
01:45So the other answer is Bobby Witt with knowing what he can do. And I think it's very clear.
01:51I have a tough time getting to some of these other players. Henderson's off to a little bit of a slow start.
01:55You know, Jay Ram, I would like to say that, you know, he could be a gold glove candidate as usual and the stats will be there,
02:02but they won't be as good. So it's a really tough market. That's the best way to put it.
02:07It's just a tough spot to bet. Yeah. It's, you know, I really don't like all the long shot options.
02:12Now here I can make a better case because again, Otani to me, once he steps on the field and he hits and pitches in a single season is the MVP every single year.
02:23I cannot imagine me watching baseball growing up thinking that this would happen and a player like this would not win MVP
02:28because it's the most impressive feat I've ever seen in the history of baseball, but he is a plus 190 to win the MVP.
02:34But look who has boomed up second. I mean, this is the big move from the off season is Corbin Carroll.
02:40Because as you said, Tom, and I watched it when he played here in Miami this past week, if he's on first, he's on second.
02:46You know, like he is just lightning on the bases. And with all this power, he looks exactly like the guy he was at the end of last season and two years ago.
02:54And then, you know, the market is really bunched up. You have Tatis at five to one, you have Kyle Tucker at six and a half to one.
03:00Tucker's been fantastic for the Cubs. So the top of the NL market has changed completely from what we saw in January, February and March.
03:09Right. And I think this is a situation where I like to say where both things can be true.
03:13I think betting Otani at plus 190 is a bad, like, is a bad number. Plus 190 for a season long bet is insane.
03:21However, once Otani actually steps on the mound, that number is going to be minus 190.
03:27Because what, even if he's okay on the mound, like even if it takes him a full season to truly get back to like an ace level performance,
03:34if he's on the mound and pitching well, combined with 40 home runs and like 100 RBIs, he's going to be the runway favorite because what, it's just absolutely insane to do that.
03:45So the number plus 190 won't be there for long. I still think it's a bad number, but we probably won't be getting plus money when it's all said and done.
03:52If Otani wasn't in the NL, the race would be fantastic.
03:56Carroll, Tatis, Tucker, Pete Alonso off to an amazing star. It would be an awesome market to break down on a day-to-day basis.
04:02Otani is the answer, though. That's what it comes down to. Once he pitches, it's all, it's wrapped up.
04:07Yeah, if he does pitch, I agree with you. And I would push him anytime. It doesn't matter what the other numbers are in baseball.