Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00We've got plenty of games to preview today around Major League Baseball, an eight-game Monday slate.
00:05But DRS, it starts very early.
00:07Patriots Day in Boston, Marathon Day in Beantown.
00:11So it's always a celebration on this Monday in Boston that includes inside Fenway Park.
00:17A first pitch scheduled for just after 11 a.m. Eastern Time, starting in about an hour between the Red Sox and the White Sox.
00:25Ending out an extended four-game weekend set.
00:28Boston looking to take three of four as a hefty home favorite today.
00:33Nearly a $3 Moneyline favorite, minus 2.90.
00:36Total is nine.
00:37Quickly, DRS, just what do you expect in the early start to this Monday slate around Major League Baseball?
00:43Another win for the Boston Red Sox.
00:45Cannon comes into the game only 18 and a third innings pitch this season.
00:48A 4.42 ERA, which isn't a disaster, but still not good.
00:52But an XFIP of closer to five will probably get himself into trouble.
00:55Walker Bueller's been okay to start this season, but also, it's not about being okay.
00:59It's just looking at the lineup that leaves a lot to be desired for the Chicago White Sox as opposed to the Boston lineup.
01:05Now, going up against Cannon today, who's a right-handed pitcher?
01:07You look at the first six guys anticipated in that lineup weighted on base percentages against righties.
01:123.46, 3.49, 3.90, 3.26, 4.04, and 4.09.
01:16They've all done extremely well against right-handed pitching.
01:19It's a heavy price to pay here for the Boston Red Sox, but they'll win this baseball game.
01:24The White Sox, DRS, only have five wins this year.
01:28Yeah, it's as bad as we expected.
01:30Five and 16.
01:31Three have come against the Red Sox.
01:34They're hoping to even up this four-game set and look for a split today.
01:38Let's go to New York inside Citi Field, where the Mets, over the weekend, swept the Cardinals in a four-game set.
01:45The Phillies taking two of three this weekend as well.
01:49They meet up today.
01:50Battle, of course, between two teams we expect to contend for the NL East Divisional Crown this year.
01:57Philadelphia on the road, a very slight underdog, but Aaron Nola gets the start.
02:02Even money price on that money line, plus 100, minus 118 on the other side for the Amazons,
02:08who send out Tyler McGill.
02:09Eight is that total today, DRS, up in Queens.
02:12What's the play?
02:14Yeah, the Phillies blew a game yesterday, but also Saturday as well.
02:17That bullpen has been chewed up and spit out.
02:19They hold on for an 11-10 victory, and they're up 11-4 in that game.
02:22And yesterday, a 4-1 lead against the lowly Marlins.
02:24The bullpen gives it up on an error that should have been called by Bryce Harper late in that game,
02:29but wasn't.
02:29They lose in extras yesterday.
02:31Now they head to New York.
02:32Now, if you're looking at old-school numbers, like ERA-wise, they don't like Aaron Nola.
02:36But new-school numbers and analytics, Aaron Nola isn't that bad.
02:39Case in point, Tyler McGill, 19 innings pitched this season, a 140 ERA, which is fantastic,
02:45and a 340 XFIP number, which is decent as well.
02:48Aaron Nola comes in at 21 and two-thirds innings pitched.
02:50His ERA close to 7, but his analytical number?
02:54Right next to Tyler McGill.
02:55So that should be interesting to find out.
02:56So for me, I look at the price point.
02:58I'm probably going to lean more towards the New York Mets, even though I'm cheering for the Phillies.
03:01Just don't like what I saw the past two days out of that bullpen, and maybe it is a close game late.
03:06Are you still going to trust that Phillies bullpen to get it done on the road?
03:09Right now, it looks like Francisco Lindor waking up.
03:11Juan Soda's there.
03:12Pete Alonzo.
03:13Aaron Nola needs to reach back and give him one of those Aaron Nola starts that we know he has in him for the Philadelphia Phillies.
03:18But again, just based on the bullpen and what I saw this weekend, Mets playing better baseball,
03:22going to give the nod to the Metropolitans today at home up there at Citi Field.
03:26Big weekend for Francisco Lindor.
03:30Two home runs in the four-game set in the four-game sweep over St. Louis and RBI in three of those four games.
03:38Speaking of the Redbirds, they stay on the road against an NLE's foe.
03:42They take on the Atlanta Braves today.
03:44The RS, Atlanta, after the 0-7 start and a slow start extended this year,
03:48needs weekends like it just had against the Twins, who are off to a dismal and disappointing start this year.
03:55Minnesota now 7-15 after getting swept in Atlanta this weekend.
04:00The Braves needed that sweep, and they got it.
04:03Spencer Schwellenbach looking to bounce back after his worst start of the year last week.
04:10And Atlanta, a pretty hefty favorite with that idea in place.
04:14Minus 188 for the Braves at home.
04:16Total stands at 8.5 between the Redbirds and the Braves.
04:19What's the play today in the A?
04:22Yeah, the Atlanta Braves certainly should be able to snap back once again at the plate.
04:24Heavy favorites in this game.
04:25They should be.
04:26Take a look at Eric Fetty on the mound.
04:27Comes into this game four starts on the season.
04:3021 innings pitched at 3.43 ERA, which is decent.
04:33But look at that XFIP number, 5.50.
04:36That means not enough strikeouts here.
04:37Too many fly balls.
04:38Too many walks.
04:39Traffic on the bases.
04:40That could be an issue.
04:41You look at the first couple guys in the lineup.
04:42At match back, one through six in the lineup anticipated today for the Braves.
04:46That's Redugo, Riley, Ozuna, Olsen, Alves, and Murphy.
04:49Each one of those guys, high-weighted on base percentages here.
04:52So you should think that they should hit Fetty tonight and should come away with a victory.
04:55And yes, I expect Schwellenbach to bounce back, even with that bad start.
04:59Still an ERA of 3.55 and an XFIP of 3.03.
05:02Better lineup for the Braves tonight as it presents itself.
05:04Better pitcher on the mound for the Atlanta Braves.
05:06That should be a victory for them down in the Big A.
05:09Yeah, it really should be DRS.
05:11And if the Braves can go on a four-game win streak, starting to find their way,
05:14maybe just maybe, out of the cellar in the National League East.
05:18Right now, 8-13, a half game behind the Nationals for the worst record in that division.
05:24The San Diego Padres, avoiding a sweep in Houston last night.
05:28Stay on the road.
05:29They headed the Motor City to take on the Tigers, who won 3-4.
05:32And a four-game set this weekend against their divisional mates in Kansas City.
05:37Had a lead late yesterday at home against the Royals.
05:40Looking for that sweep, Casey responded, equalizing in the eighth, sending it to extras.
05:45And the Royals avoided that four-game sweep in 10 innings against Detroit.
05:50The Tigers, a favorite today, though, at home to take the opener against San Diego.
05:56What do you like today in the Motor City?
05:58Yeah, Cotter Montero, by the way, the lowest XFIP on the card.
06:01Now, granted, it only has five innings pitch, but get this.
06:03His XFIP is 2.45.
06:05Is the ERA, Ben?
06:06Nine.
06:06So some of those analytics versus ERA at this early in the season sort of get discombobulated
06:10again when you take a look at so limited innings here.
06:13But also, having said that, you take a look at the lineup today for the Padres.
06:16Hasn't hit right into pitching all that well outside of Tatis, Machado, Sheets, and Bogarts.
06:20The rest of that lineup, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, has got to do a little bit more damage in what
06:24they've been doing.
06:24But how about this?
06:25Just another interesting one with Randy Vasquez.
06:27He actually has 20 and two-thirds innings pitched on the season, Ben.
06:31A 1.74 ERA.
06:33His XFIP, the worst on the card.
06:366.31.
06:37So you figure he's just getting absolutely lucky.
06:40Not enough strikeouts, too many fly balls, too many walks.
06:43Sooner than later, it's going to catch up.
06:45And there's some pretty good batters in the lineup for Detroit that may be able to mount
06:47a spot here.
06:48So when most people say, wait a second, San Diego's so good on the road.
06:52Keep in mind also, that Sunday night baseball game on the road where you got to travel on
06:55the road.
06:56You're playing in cooler temperatures here.
06:58When San Diego's used to playing in warmer temperatures, it makes sense for Detroit.
07:01I don't know if I trust their pitcher.
07:02But I'm going to say, like, Vasquez with that high XFIP, Detroit, maybe a team total should
07:06be in the works for you today, or at least some batting props from their perspective.
07:10Yeah, game total in full in Detroit is at 8.
07:14A few more MLB games to preview on this Monday.
07:17Up next.
07:19Live right here on the early line on this Monday morning, he is Donnie Redside.
07:25I am Ben Stevens.
07:26Still plenty of games to preview around MLB on this Monday.
07:30In Cleveland, an ALCS rematch from a postseason ago between the Guardians and the Yankees.
07:36New York enters today, a slight road favorite.
07:40They had a great weekend down in Tampa, winning three of four against the Rays.
07:44Minus 122 the price to back the Pinstripes today as a road favorite in Cleveland.
07:50Total at eight and a half.
07:51The Guardians, a weekend sweep over the Pirates.
07:54DRS, Cleveland started three and six.
07:56Pretty poor beginning to this season.
07:58They've won nine of their last 12.
08:00They're above .500 once again in the American League Central.
08:04What do you like today in the ALCS rematch in Cleveland?
08:08Yeah, Quan always seems like he's like a must-bet each and every night.
08:10And yesterday, hitting a home run as well at a pretty good price point.
08:13But this game doesn't have two good pitchers in it, which is good.
08:15That's why we like offense.
08:17But also, 63-degree temperatures.
08:18It is on the cooler side.
08:19But how about a wind blowing out to right field at double digits, which always helps.
08:23Now, granted, it would help much more if that was in the Bronx at that short porch.
08:26But it's not more pitcher-friendly Cleveland.
08:28But if we are looking at the two pitchers, only one start here on the season for Clark
08:32Schmidt.
08:32Five and two-thirds innings pitch in ERA of close to five.
08:35And the XFIP number of 5.67.
08:36But again, it's hard to extrapolate what those numbers actually are.
08:39Four starts out of Gavin Williams in close to 20 innings pitched.
08:43He's also at a 4.5 ERA and a 4.34 XFIP number.
08:47You look at that Yankees lineup, which is so talented from top to bottom.
08:50Ben Rice at the top of the order.
08:51326 ISO power number.
08:53He gets right into pitching.
08:54We know what Aaron Judge can do.
08:56Bellinger and Goldschmidt.
08:57Even though Goldschmidt's having a decent season, hasn't hit right into pitching all
09:00that well.
09:00Chisholm, Volpe, Wells, Grisham might be enough to overwhelm the starting pitcher in Gavin
09:04Williams.
09:05But if we take a look at the Cleveland batters going up against Clark Schmidt, you should
09:08get some damage done.
09:09And also, I love Cleveland.
09:11The versatility of that offense.
09:14Because look at what we're expecting today.
09:15Right-handed pitchers, you want to stack as many lefties as you can get.
09:18Kwon, lefty.
09:19Ramirez, lefty.
09:20Manzardo, lefty.
09:21Santana, lefty.
09:22Jones, lefty.
09:23Naylor, lefty.
09:24Rocchio, lefty.
09:25Like, you might have seven of nine batters today that can flip the switch and go to the
09:28opposite side of bat against Clark Schmidt, where he's had some trouble against lefties
09:32today.
09:32So, for my money, why not just look through a total in this game between both of these
09:36teams?
09:37Nine runs seems like a possibility.
09:38Both of these pitchers should be able to get hit today.
09:40Yeah, Schmidt made his season debut last week in 2025, was pretty good last year in 2024
09:47for the New York Yankees.
09:49Pretty solid pitching matchup as well in Houston.
09:53The Astros will send out Hunter Brown, who has been great.
09:56Back-to-back shutout performances with six innings of work.
09:59A 1-5-0 ERA as the Astros host the Blue Jays.
10:03Toronto sends out Kevin Gosman.
10:05A total of seven and a half today in H-Town, Donnie.
10:09As we look at a pretty short money line price, what are we seeing today in H-Town?
10:14Yeah, tough loss last night for Houston, but I do think a bounce-back is in order.
10:18Hunter Brown, one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball, 24 and two-thirds innings, pitched
10:21through four starts this season.
10:23And we take a look at him at a 1-50 ERA and an XFIP number of 3.02, so it certainly does
10:28check out.
10:29But you are taking a look at those Houston bats, which aren't fantastic when you're looking
10:33to back up the Atuve average season.
10:36Isak Paredes average season.
10:37Alvarez hasn't popped yet.
10:39And again, the 6, 7, 8, 9, even the five batters haven't done all that much.
10:43And under probably happens today, the seven and a half number.
10:46But I still do look for Houston.
10:47I think the better pitchers on the mound, even though the veteran Gaussman is there,
10:50under in this game, lean towards Houston.
10:52How about that?
10:54Yeah, Hunter Brown has been really, really good this year.
10:57They're 2-1 with that 1-50 ERA.
11:00DRS has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of the four starts he has made this
11:04year for the Astros.
11:06Houston looking to get their way back.
11:08They didn't win the weekend, despite not being able to complete the sweep last night
11:12against the San Diego Padres.
11:14But the Astros still a game sub-500 at 10 and 11.
11:18Meanwhile, for the Toronto Blue Jays, they're two games above 500, 12 and 10.
11:23And they trail the Yankees by two games in the race for the top spot in the American League
11:27East.
11:27The only two games of our eight on this Monday around the bigs we have not highlighted.
11:32Our final one in San Francisco, the Giants and the Brewers.
11:35San Fran, a slight money line favorite at home at minus 138.
11:39In the Reds, after scoring 24 runs, take their talents to South Beach to take on the Marlins.
11:45Cincy, a slight favorite in Miami.
11:47DRS, a thought on either of those final two games to round out our Monday docket?
11:51Yeah, the Cincinnati-Miami game is interesting to me because Cincinnati comes in as a favorite.
11:55We always love the, hey, offensive explosion.
11:57Yesterday, he was talking about 49 stats in that game, which was 24 runs and 25 hits,
12:01which is incredible, including a 15 for 25 runners in scoring position number.
12:06Now you take a look at the eight there.
12:07It's a pure pitcher's ballpark, but also two pitchers coming in.
12:10Max Meyer starts 24 innings pitched here for the Marlins.
12:13How about an ERA of 2.63 and an XFIP of 2.92?
12:16That checks out.
12:17Then you take a look at Lodolo on the opposite side.
12:19A low ERA of 2.31 and a slightly higher XFIP of 4.14.
12:23Even though we scored that many runs yesterday,
12:25and even Miami busted out with seven against the Phillies,
12:27I think this game probably plays more towards an under
12:30based on that ballpark and the two lineups for these two pitchers.