Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday spoke, for the first time, publicly about the Pahalgam terrorist attack which claimed the lives of 26 civilians after around five to six terrorists opened fire on them.
Category
š
NewsTranscript
00:00Good evening and welcome. You're watching the NewsTrack. I'm Rahul Kamal.
00:04The Prime Minister has said that there will be unimaginable costs imposed on Pakistan,
00:10on the terrorists, their backers, their handlers, the masterminds.
00:15What does unimaginable retribution really look like?
00:19On the show tonight, I'll have super sharp voices from the Army, the Navy, the Air Force,
00:25the Diplomatic Core, also from the Research and Analysis Wing and the IB,
00:30the kind of minds involved in strategizing in real time, what needs to be done at this moment.
00:36We'll be joining me in the studio to give you a sense of what to expect next.
00:41That's my top focus on the NewsTrack.
00:55India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism.
01:00India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism, we will pursue them to the end of the world.
01:30Pahalgam will not go unpunished, every effort will be made to ensure that justice is done.
01:5148 hours after the terror attack in Pahalgam, Prime Minister Modi made his first public statement in Bihar.
01:57In the Hindi heartland, he spoke uncharacteristically in English.
02:01Resolve writ large on his face, the Prime Minister has warned terrorists and their backers of unimaginable punishment.
02:08What will be India's response?
02:10Over the next one hour, we will wargame India's next move with some of the country's top military strategists.
02:15But first up, listen to the Prime Minister's thundering warning.
02:27Prime Minister Narendra Modi promises to crush the terrorists behind the Pahalgam massacre.
02:35In his first public meet after the terror attack, Prime Minister Modi began his rally in Madhubani in Bihar on Thursday by paying homage to the 26 people who died in the dastardly attack.
02:46And observed a moment of silence.
02:52The Prime Minister vowed stern action against the perpetrators of the horrific terror attack.
02:58Modi asserted that the terrorists who carried out the attack and brains behind it will be punished beyond their imagination.
03:20The Prime Minister Modi also issued a stern warning to the perpetrators of the Pahalgam terror attack.
03:48Declaring that India will relentlessly pursue every terrorist and their backers.
04:18While addressing the public meeting, Prime Minister Modi switched to English and sent a message to the global community.
04:47I thank the people of various countries and their leaders who have stood with us in this time.
04:58From the soil of Bihar, I say to the whole world, India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.
05:21The terrorism will not go unpunished.
05:28Prime Minister Modi had earlier ordered surgical strike and balakot airstrike to avenge the Uri and Pulwama terror attacks on security forces.
05:37Prime Minister Modi says,
06:07The resistance front, an alleged front of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayaba, has claimed
06:22responsibility for the Pahalgam terror attack.
06:27India has already announced a series of diplomatic measures aimed at Pakistan, including the
06:33suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
06:37It is only a matter of time that India hits back, as it did after Uri and Pulwama.
06:43With camera person Deepak Kumar, this is Rohit Singh, in Jhanjarpur, for India Today.
06:49Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking in Bihar's Madhubani, has said the terrorists will not
06:56be spared, strong action will be taken against them, punishment will be significant and stringent,
07:03which these terrorists would never have thought about.
07:09India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers.
07:16We will pursue them to the end of the world.
07:20India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism.
07:22terrorism will not go unpunished.
07:25Look at the operative words here.
07:28Punishment will be significant and stringent, that the terrorists would never have thought
07:33of.
07:34India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers.
07:39Now, that is a clear public signalling of political intent.
07:45What does this mean militarily?
07:47To try and understand the messaging that the Prime Minister has delivered to our enemies
07:52in Pakistan, I am joined on this broadcast by some super sharp minds, cutting across different
08:00agencies and forces.
08:03Allow me to introduce first, Lieutenant General Satish Dua, he's been former General Officer
08:07commanding 15 Corps in Kashmir, he's been Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff, gentleman
08:12in the purple tie.
08:15I have with me on this broadcast, Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor in the Bandi, former Director
08:21of General Inspection and Safety of the Indian Air Force.
08:24We have Admiral Shekhar Sina, former Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Western Naval
08:28Command, the one who's just doing the namaste.
08:31I have a super sharp salute, Tilak Deveshwar has been member of the National Security Advisory
08:36Board, he's the author of Pakistan Courting the Abyss, has been Special Secretary in the
08:42Research and Analysis Wing, and arguably one of India's finest minds on Pakistan.
08:47I have Rajinder Kumar, he's been Special Director of the Intelligence Bureau, and with
08:52me in the studio is Ambassador Yash Sina, he's been a diplomat, he's been India's Chief
08:56Information Commissioner, and has been an expert, multi-tenure expert on Pakistan, has also played
09:03a role in arbitrating the Indus Water Treaty, which India has now suspended.
09:08So we've got an army mind, an air force mind, a naval mind, an external intelligence mind,
09:14an internal security intelligence mind, and also a diplomat.
09:17So thank you very much, gentlemen, for joining us.
09:21Now, I want to go across to General Dua first, because let's try and distill into military
09:26parlance what political messaging the Prime Minister has said.
09:31When he says the punishment is significant and stringent that the terrorists would not
09:35have thought of, we will identify and trace every terrorist and their backer.
09:41You know, backers typically would be, say, the ISI or the PAAC Army.
09:45Just try and explain to our viewers, what do you think the Prime Minister really means when
09:50he speaks as publicly and as clearly as this?
09:56I think Rahul, the Prime Minister has left nothing to imagination.
10:04He has been very clear, very unambiguous, and curt about it.
10:11He has said very clearly that we will identify the terrorists, we will pursue them wherever
10:19they are.
10:21And he said to the ends of the earth, anywhere in the world, and we will not only target them,
10:28but we will also target their backers.
10:32Because if you kill a few terrorists, others will come up.
10:35That happens all the time.
10:36So I think that message is very clear.
10:40It reminds me of that movie, Munich, when the Israeli Mossad got after all those who killed
10:49the athletes in the Munich Olympics, and we know what happened.
10:54So the point is, today the statement has been given by Prime Minister.
10:59He cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia.
11:03He cut short his visit because they said he got the message.
11:07Every person who was killed, they were identified by the religion, the male was killed, and the
11:13female was told, the lady was told, the woman was told, go and tell Modi.
11:18Everyone who said this, they didn't say go and tell the army, they said go and tell Modi.
11:21Everyone said this, there was a clear message in that, from their side.
11:25And Modi got that message.
11:26He came back.
11:27And he's actually announced this.
11:29This is what the Jaksha Mantri, the Defence Minister had announced earlier, the same very
11:33similar words, that we will not only reach them to those who have done it, but we will
11:38reach them to those who have done it, but we will reach them to those who have done it.
11:41So most of those people are in the Pakami or the ISI General Dua.
11:46Absolutely.
11:47Is it correct if I understand that this means the Prime Minister has publicly signaled that
11:53if RAW is able to identify officers in the ISI and the Pakami who are involved, like Major
11:59Sameer was in the 2611, that will now go after them?
12:04My understanding is, when ODI happened, I was the core commander, then we did a shallow
12:10surgical strike to hit the terrorist camps because terrorists came and targeted us.
12:15When Balakot happened, they targeted the CRP of Jawans, we went deep inside, a precision
12:21air strike deep inside Pakistan and not just POK, and we hit terrorist camps again.
12:25And today the message is, merely killing terrorists, that will happen, that has to happen, to give
12:31closure to the families of those who have lost their lives, but merely killing terrorists
12:37is not good enough now.
12:38After all, the Indus Water Treaty held, despite the four wars that we have had.
12:47But this time such bold steps have already been put in place, the diplomatic strike has already
12:54taken place, because these are the measures that are always announced first, and then applied.
13:02Military option will come, it's very clear, and those are the measures that are not announced
13:07first.
13:08They have to be executed.
13:09No, I just want to answer your question, one sentence.
13:12You said, what does it mean?
13:13When I said that we went shallow, then we went deep, the idea is that if we have to hit the
13:18backers, it is very clear, the backers are the ISI officers, the military leadership of
13:23Pakistan, because I think it is the Pakistan Army which is the biggest terrorist organization,
13:29because they are the ones who are perpetrating terror.
13:31So what shape that will take remains to be seen.
13:34But I think we can expect a response, like the Prime Minister says, which they could not imagine.
13:39Okay.
13:40Now so, like a military man, you are very gang-ho, but the likes of Tilak Deveshwar have now to
13:44provide specific intelligence inputs about the locations of terrorists and high-value targets
13:49who can be taken down, whether they are terror masterminds or they are backers in the ISI.
13:54The moment something like this is not a regular time when you can bump off the odd PSO of Hafiz
13:59Saeed or somebody in his close proximity or some other most wanted, this is when they are
14:04fully alert, they know that India is looking for them and coming after them and naturally
14:08therefore they disappear into, whether it's underground or some safe house, etc.
14:13That makes it very difficult to get precise information.
14:16I know you can't say very much, but what you can tell us, Tilak Deveshwar, is what do you
14:21think the Prime Minister means when he says punishment that the terrorists would never have thought
14:26about and going after every terrorist and their backer?
14:31I think he is underlining one very important element, which is unpredictability.
14:40You see, we tend to take Pakistan as a normal state, whereas Pakistan is anything but a normal
14:46state when it comes to India.
14:47It acts irrationality.
14:49It acts irrational.
14:50And it is Pakistan's irrationality towards India that has, in the past, thrown us off guard.
14:57You don't expect something like this to happen, but it does happen.
15:01So I think he is playing by their book.
15:03He is playing their game.
15:05That unimaginable.
15:07That you could not even have imagined what's coming your way.
15:11So I would agree with what Jaladuwar said, targeting the backers, which are the army of the ISI.
15:18But in what form and what shape that targeting will be is something that he knows and he has
15:26imagined it, but I don't think the Pakistan imagines or knows what's coming their way.
15:33No, but let's take it one by one.
15:34Let's imagine that we've now bumped off some major or brigadier or general in the ISI who
15:42we think is the one who ordered this attack.
15:45If it's a Park army officer serving or retired, Pakistan will A, deny it, B, will say there
15:50will be a response.
15:51Like there was, they declared a response to the Balakot airstrikes.
15:54Then how do we manage the escalation ladder?
15:56So what happens?
15:57So we attack, we kill, say, somebody we think is responsible, they'll want to come for
16:02does it then, according to you, mean that we run the risk of war?
16:07No.
16:07You see, why are we limiting our imagination to targeting a major or a brigadier?
16:18You know, there's a lot that you cannot say on open media, but I think let's leave it
16:27to the services and to the political leadership of what they have in mind.
16:33But I don't think so.
16:36Mr. Modi is in the habit of bluffing, of being bombastic or rhetorical.
16:43What he said, he means that.
16:47And this is what Pakistan is going to experience, the real and true cost of what they have done.
16:54No, but how do we at this time, so I'll take for example, you know, we've been wanting
17:01to get Hafiz Saeed for a while and the reason it hasn't happened is A, he's in great security,
17:06the Paaq army protects him and therefore it's tough for us to get to him.
17:09Ordinarily, even when nothing's happening.
17:11Now when his guard is up, the Paaq army's guard is up, does it then mean that it's really
17:16bringing down a high value target at this time, Dawood Ibrahim, Hafiz Saeed, Sayyid Salahuddin,
17:21Masood, doesn't anybody, it's just that much tougher that it needs to be, whatever it is,
17:25an attack of a different kind, it's not what people would ordinarily imagine.
17:29Yeah, I think it's not something that Pakistan, even all of us, can imagine what he has in mind.
17:38I think it's going to be much more, much more than that.
17:41Hey Marshall Sanjeev Kapoor, last time we went in with our Mirages 2000, we attacked Balakot
17:50deep inside Pakistan, does that then mean that the prospects of an airstrike are that much
17:56lesser because you weren't surprised, so you did a shallow incursion on the other side
18:00of the line of control, you've done a deep airstrike inside mainland Pakistan, does that
18:06then mean that, okay, maybe an airstrike is therefore less probable this time?
18:12No, you can't say that.
18:14All options are open and last skirmish took place in 2019, lot of water has flown in after
18:20that.
18:21We are much better trained, equipped, both air-to-air missiles, including addition of
18:29referral to our inventory, the tactics and the training to take on these kind of contingencies
18:35are regularly practiced.
18:36Now, the beauty of air campaign is that you can target any place at any time from any direction.
18:45That is the flexibility we have.
18:47So, you may be guarding some place, expecting attack from the eastern direction, but the attack
18:53may come either from the southern direction or from the western direction.
18:56So, that is the beauty with the air-to-air fillers and other things brought into this
19:01thing.
19:02Your range increases tremendously.
19:05Your ability to take out the key VAs and VPs as we call this phenomenon.
19:12To begin any campaign, it generally begins with their campaign and it is a signaling that
19:18the intent is, of course, thereafter it is followed up by the action on ground and blockade
19:26and other things.
19:28But, it will be in conjunction and I don't think so anybody on the television would be
19:33in a position to discuss that or tell you that.
19:35No, but, for example, if the Park Army is in a heightened state of alert with all their
19:39radars, their air defense, their electronic warfare measures activated and on alert because
19:44this time they are expecting it, do we have then the ability, you think, of jamming this
19:48or would we need the help of the Americans and the Israelis to be able to establish air
19:52superiority over Pakistan airspace?
19:54The two wars which are going on, the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas and Iran conflict that
20:01is going on.
20:03The idea originally before these wars started was, you know, the services used to work on
20:09short and swift wars.
20:11That wars will not be too long.
20:14In 8 to 10 days, the international agencies will mediate and some sort of an arrangement
20:19would be worked out.
20:20But, over 1,000 days plus in the Russian campaign and since 7th October 2022, Israel conflict
20:30is on.
20:31This has indicated to us that the global supply chain for your spares, your equipment and
20:38with each passing week, the tactics are changing.
20:42We are finding more and more utilization of drones, the space-based applications.
20:48So, all these factors would be, in my opinion, presently being discussed and being worked
20:54out at the headquarters.
20:55How to integrate the available assets?
20:57What help to seek from whom?
20:59Which capabilities are required for which area?
21:02I am sure that would be under process and distills.
21:05Sure.
21:06Ambassador Yash Sina, you have been involved in arbitrating the Indus Water Treaty.
21:11India has announced suspension of the treaty.
21:12Do you think this acts as punishment for Pakistan?
21:15Because there is nothing we can do in the immediate.
21:17We can't build more dams or build out more canals for diversion of water.
21:22Does this, in some ways, signal adequate punishment?
21:27See, I will frame it in a different context, Rahul.
21:30This is an ultimatum to Pakistan.
21:32They cannot continue business as usual in terms of turning on and off the faucet of terrorism.
21:38The treaty itself, as you know, was negotiated and signed in 1960.
21:43The western rivers were given to Pakistan.
21:45But India was allowed run-of-the-river projects and non-consumptive uses.
21:52Now, I wouldn't like to speculate on what we can do, but all I can say is that Pakistan
21:57constantly agitates projects that we do, run-of-the-river projects.
22:02I was the co-agent for India in the Krishan Ganga arbitration in 2011-12-13 when the interim
22:09measures were announced.
22:11And we were led by the redoubtable late Fali Naruman as our counsel.
22:17And I think for any design change, even though it is permissible, Pakistan challenges it.
22:23So for us, as far as the treaty itself goes, there is very little to gain from it and a lot
22:29to lose because we were very generous with Pakistan.
22:32How long will it take if we start building new dams and diversions?
22:35Well, that would take long.
22:36As I said, it's not a tap that we can switch on and switch off.
22:39However, there are other things.
22:41We stopped giving data.
22:43Now, that would cause problems, particularly during monsoon for Pakistan.
22:47We have issues where we can act on the dead storage level of existing dams and sizes of
22:54the sluice gates.
22:55Now, a hydrological engineer would be able to explain how that would cause problems.
23:01But we do have, we can do certain things.
23:04Whether we do it as far as the treaty is concerned or not will depend very much on how Pakistan
23:10behaves.
23:11We have put them on notice.
23:13I mean, this was something that was long coming.
23:14Some experts have said this is Pakistan's worst nightmare, that a lot of their area in Punjab,
23:20Sindh, could turn into a desert.
23:22Explain why is the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and if India follows through on
23:27building these dams, stopping water, why is it in Pakistan's worst nightmare?
23:30Because, you see, as far as the Western rivers are concerned, we let them flow into Pakistan.
23:37And Pakistan's agriculture survives on an irrigation system of canals which were built
23:43after partition because they didn't really have the sort of irrigation facilities that
23:49existed in East Punjab which we got.
23:52So, I think if India were to dam the Western rivers and block the flow, even if it takes
23:58some time to do it, Pakistan would become a desert.
24:02Now, that is not happening.
24:03So, we have to be realistic.
24:05It's not happening now.
24:06Whether it can happen in the future, well, time will tell.
24:10No, but the other concern is if we do this to Pakistan with the Indus Water Treaty, what
24:13if China does this to us with the Brahmaputra and the other rivers that come from China?
24:17Well, we'll have to see how, whether it's possible.
24:19You see, the question is we have to examine the road of the upper riparian and the lower
24:23riparian.
24:24You mentioned the Brahmaputra.
24:26Brahmaputra is a huge river.
24:28Can it be dammed and flow blocked?
24:31That is something, again, that experts will answer.
24:34But as far as Pakistan is concerned, they have dams that they have built on the Indus and
24:42its tributaries, whether it's the Mangala Dam, the Tarbela Dam.
24:45They would certainly get affected.
24:47The Tashma Barrage, they would get affected if India were to interrupt the flows, not stop
24:52the flows, interrupt the flows, lessen the flows.
24:55That itself would cause problems to Pakistan.
24:59Admiral Shekhar Sina, we've had the Army Special Forces in action once.
25:04We've had the Air Force bombard Balakot.
25:07Is the Navy ready and raring to go this time round, if the opportunity comes?
25:14Well, Rahul, the first thing is, you know, that I'll come back to the questions that you
25:19have been asking.
25:19If the Prime Minister says that, you know, they would not have imagined, I would believe
25:26that it will be a combination of economic, kinetic and intelligence action, which will
25:34actually dictate the end result of what the Prime Minister has said.
25:38I would think that it will be, you know, all three services and the intelligence, both the
25:46external and internal intelligence, to cause the kind of damage that we are talking about.
25:51Navy, yes.
25:52As far as the force levels are concerned, we are much stronger than the, we are not looking
25:57at full-fledged combat, and therefore it will have to be a blockade, it will have to be
26:02a trouble created into other groups.
26:04Do you think the Indian Navy, we did it in 1971, during the Bangladesh Liberation War,
26:11at this moment, do you think the Indian Navy can enforce a blockade of Karachi Harbor?
26:15Enforcing a blockade, making a blockade and thereafter sustaining it, it's a little long
26:21drawn procedure.
26:22It doesn't happen all of a sudden.
26:24How long for the non-military mine will it take?
26:27If we were to try, for the Indian Navy to be able to create a blockade of the Karachi
26:31Harbor?
26:32See, the point is that, you know, it leads to actually a full-fledged war.
26:37It will call for a full-fledged war.
26:39So, now the politicians have to decide, are we heading for a full-fledged war?
26:43If the answer is no, for a short term, yes, it can be.
26:48Then, what happens if they want to break the blockade?
26:50If they want to break the blockade, then you have to sink their ships, or sink their merchant
26:55ship.
26:55No, that is, you're inviting a war.
26:58So, I don't think that the...
26:58No, but would China typically, with the assets that they have in the Indian Ocean region,
27:03try and come to Pakistan's defense at a time like this, given what happened in Pahal Gav?
27:07Why do you say no?
27:07No, I don't think that China is going to participate in any kind of action along with Pakistan.
27:14China has maintained a policy of keeping away from this in every war.
27:18But one point I want to make is that we should certainly, politically, intelligence-wise, and
27:25military-wise, we should assist Pakistan in its breaking into pieces on its own.
27:31How do we do that?
27:32It's already happening.
27:33There's a lot of talk that we can separate Balochistan from Pakistan.
27:36It's already happening.
27:38It's already happening.
27:39No, that's the organic process, which is the trouble within Pakistan.
27:42I'm saying if...
27:42We should help.
27:44We should help them to achieve it faster.
27:46No, through military means or non-military means?
27:49No, no.
27:50Obviously, it will...
27:51When I say intelligence and all the services, it's a combination of these effects, right?
27:58It's a combination of all these actions.
28:00How do you help an agitating group or agitating people in that area to achieve their objective?
28:08Okay.
28:08This is a good thought you've brought out.
28:10Can India help break Pakistan up?
28:13You know, remember, India Gandhi got a lot of credit for breaking Pakistan into two.
28:17Can Balochistan, for example, be separated from the rest of Pakistan?
28:20So, I'll come to that.
28:21One more point, Rahul.
28:23Rahul, one more point.
28:24Give me a minute.
28:24Yes, sir.
28:25It is...
28:26You know, it is not the question of terror.
28:30Terrorists are doing all this.
28:31No, it is a question of thought process.
28:34It is a question of ideology on which the two countries have been separated.
28:38And you cannot kill the ideology till you break up the whole system in Pakistan, right?
28:45So, ideologies don't get killed.
28:47You kill somebody today, but the system does not change because the system is geared up to
28:53be anti-India, to be anti-Hindu, if I may say so.
28:56And therefore, it will continue.
28:57I mean, there are children who are being taught anti-Hindu things in school, in colleges.
29:03Sure.
29:04I think, Ambassador, yes, he is there.
29:06He will tell you.
29:07You know, Rajinder Kumar from the Intelligence Bureau, this is a massive intelligence challenge
29:15to my mind, to my non-military mind, because all the assets that, say, our assets would
29:20have been, all the targets that our assets would have been surveilling would be taken
29:25into safe houses, moved away from their common locations, because they know that India is
29:31coming for them.
29:31So, how then, you know, without getting into operational details, Mr. Kumar, do you think
29:35we can identify and establish exactly where to attack at a time like this?
29:45See, one thing is there that our assets are not of this nature that everybody can identify
29:54and know it.
29:56They have different ways of performing and their performance is in such a way that they
30:03can keep us informed wherever they may be.
30:07There are different means of collections.
30:10As far as the targets are concerned, let me tell you, if you give me a minute, I'll start
30:16slightly differently from all other speakers.
30:19See, this whole thing has its origins in what is happening in Baluchistan and Khyber Paktoonkhoa.
30:30Khyber Paktoonkhoa.
30:35They are the army, Pakistani army, is totally running away.
30:39They are, people are deserting.
30:41They are, they have no control.
30:43Now, see, they are under so much pressure and the government in Pakistan is illegitimate.
30:50It is, in that context, if you see the, if you hear the message, speech of General Munir,
30:59you will find that he clearly indicates that Hindus should be the target.
31:04And it is, all the covert operations are planned by, are cleared.
31:11I am, I am a person who has planned covert operation, but let me also tell you, the covert
31:16operations have clearances from the highest level.
31:20So Munir knows about this operation.
31:23He was active in this operation.
31:25This operation, he is one of the co-accused in this operation, in my thinking.
31:29No, sure, but let me ask this question to Tilak Deveshwar, Mr. Deveshwar, you know, given
31:34the timing of this attack, and I agree with the IB officer Rajinder Kumar when he says
31:41that the Pak Ami chief likely knew, because an operation of this nature, which is quite
31:45clearly going to invite Indian retribution, couldn't have happened at a junior level.
31:49Why do you think the Pak Ami chief cleared an operation of this nature, given that Modiji
31:52had already signaled he would come for them?
31:56See, a couple of points, there's a very interesting question that you've raised.
31:58Kulwama happened when Munir was DGISI, and now Pehlgaan, when he is the army chief, he
32:07seems to have some fondness for the alphabet P.
32:12Second, the speech of his, I am quite convinced that that was the first step towards his plan
32:20to get an extension in November, by trying to show himself that he is the man in charge,
32:25and he is the person who can take control.
32:26And what has happened in Kulwama, I have the paradigm, and I agree it's cleared, had to
32:32be cleared by him, is the next step of his extension, you know, trying to get an extension.
32:38No, but he already has an extension.
32:40The rule was amended in November 2024 to allow for him to stay on as chief till 2027.
32:45And he has to be granted, he has to be granted that, that clause is there, that he can be
32:50given an extension, but the Prime Minister has to give him that extension.
32:55It's not automatic.
32:56So, you think this is Munir trying to get an extension till 2027, because I just want to
33:02tell our viewers that there was a law passed in November 2024, which allows for the term
33:06of the Park Army chief now to be five years rather than three.
33:10So, you think he is trying to force the civilian establishment to grant him an extension, that's
33:14what this is about?
33:14And you will find, as a, glory to what I am saying, you will find very few posters coming
33:20up in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, that, you know, Asa Munir is the saviour and, you know,
33:26all the kind of things that happened to when Raheel Sharif was the Army chief.
33:31And thenā¦
33:33Does he have political ambitions?
33:35Nobody, and I just want to tell our viewers, because I have read a lot of what Tilak
33:38Deveshwar has written and said over the years.
33:40He really is one of our top experts in Pakistan.
33:43Do you think General Munir has political ambitions, sir?
33:46Right now, no.
33:47I think right now he will be quite happy getting another two years.
33:50And thereafter, he could think of political ambitions.
33:53But when this attack happens, and given the current state of the Park economy and the troubles
33:58they already have in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, how does he deal with the consequences?
34:03I mean, it is absolutely correct that they are facing a very serious problem in Baluchistan.
34:09Yes.
34:09But, you know, you are thinking strategically about the long-term consequences.
34:14The Pakistan Army doesn't think so.
34:16The Pakistan Army have one template that whenever a foreign dignitary visits India,
34:21when President Clinton came in 2000, they had satis in Kura.
34:25Later on, there was, I think, Assistant Secretary of State, Christina Rokha, who came, you are
34:31Kalucha.
34:32So, that it is the same template.
34:33No, sir, Admiral Shekhar Sina said, India, the unimaginable consequences we can impose on
34:38Pakistan is to break Pakistan up.
34:40Can India break Pakistan up, in your view?
34:42Can we separate Baluchistan from the rest of Pakistan?
34:44You are a top Baluchistan expert.
34:47I don't see why we should even try.
34:49Pakistan is imploding.
34:50I have mentioned this in my various books.
34:53Pakistan is imploding from within.
34:56Just be patient and it will happen before your eyes.
34:59How do you think it will happen?
35:00Because most people, when they hear Pakistan will break up, they think this is wishful Indian thinking.
35:05No, no, but it's been, I have demonstrated, documented, we don't have the time for a long
35:11discussion on this, but take simple case of water.
35:15We talked about the India's Water Treaty.
35:17Despite having the full force of those three rivers, Pakistan is actually running dry because
35:23of mismanagement of its water.
35:26Pakistan's own think tanks have predicted that by this year or the next couple of years,
35:32parts of Pakistan will become absolute water scarce, which means drought-like conditions.
35:38Now, nobody, not China, not the US, nobody can create water for Pakistan, right?
35:43And if people don't have, there's no life without water.
35:46So, you'll find that Sindh and South Punjab are the first places to get affected, right?
35:53Then you have a population which is going at 2.55%.
35:55They can't sustain this population.
35:57They're already importing 2 to 3 million tons of wheat, despite having the massive,
36:02irrigation system.
36:03And the population is going to touch 350 million.
36:07In the next 15 to 20 years, how will they do that?
36:09So, the state itself is collapsing because of lack of leadership, lack of vision, lack of
36:14understanding.
36:15Ambassador Aishini, you think India can break up Pakistan?
36:19Tilak, they wish for us that we don't need to, they'll break up on their own.
36:21Well, I tend to agree with Tilak.
36:23I think Pakistan is imploding.
36:26But it's a very slow implosion.
36:27But the fact is that a country has an army.
36:31Here, the Pakistan army has a country.
36:33The most popular leader is in jail.
36:35They have suppressed political protests completely.
36:39They have sabotaged.
36:41They have sort of co-opted the courts, etc.
36:43And they have a government in power which is basically a puppet.
36:45So, the army chief is calling the shots.
36:48He doesn't need to...
36:49Well, what's your reading of Munir's mind?
36:52I haven't met the gentleman, but from what I can see, he's a product of that jihadi mindset
36:57which was ushered in during Ziaul Haq's time.
37:00And you've continued, the Pakistan army has been imbibed with that virus.
37:04So, the problem is when the people of Pakistan realize, and I'm sure they realize, they're
37:09unable to do something about it, when adventurism, Pakistani adventurism of the military, of their
37:15chief, when it comes with a cost, and when the common man has to pay that cost, then obviously
37:21there will be a realization.
37:24There is a realization, but there will be some action.
37:25Because, and whether we can facilitate that action, certainly we can.
37:30If Pakistan sort of dares to go into an, carry out an adventure against India, they will
37:37pay very, very heavily.
37:38Rajinder Kumar, you know, some people said this is the Hamas moment, right?
37:43This is India's October 7th.
37:45There was an India Today website article by a fine columnist.
37:48Do you see parallels that Hamas doing this, knowing that there will be an attack by the
37:53Israelis, deliberately provoking India to escalate?
38:01See, I don't see any parallel between Hamas and these people.
38:05These people, basically, they are small groups of mercenaries which have been hired by Pakistan
38:11agencies.
38:14So, they will, they keep on, they keep on sending them and they come here, they carry out their
38:22actions, and either they get finished or they go back.
38:27But I am on one more point, when you are asking, how much can we break Pakistan or how much, what
38:33action India can take?
38:35I will say, if you, media and opposition gives government 675 days, we will, Pakistan will break
38:45itself.
38:46We have to just do one thing, send tanks on the borders, send artillery on the borders from
38:53Palampu by, from Kargil to Bhoj, and you will see, and occasional sorties by the air force.
39:02And you will see Pakistan will get bankrupt in one month, and they will have left with hardly
39:09anything to fight with India.
39:11And that is the time when the Bhoj and the Khaib and the Pashtuns will take care of Pakistan.
39:19So, you are asking for an Operation Brass Tax type deployment, where, you know, you mobilize
39:25the Indian Army, the air force, put them on a state of high alert, take them to the borders,
39:32get the Pakistanis activated, and you are saying you could bleed them dry financially.
39:35Tehla, Deveshwar, do you buy that?
39:36Is that, okay, General Dua wants to come in on this.
39:39My father, sir, was a small part of Brass Tax, so I kind of saw it from the sidelines.
39:45Ultimately, we came back.
39:47General Padmanavan was in charge at the time.
39:48Ultimately, we came back.
39:49He is recommending that kind of an approach.
39:51Does it make sense, General Dua?
39:53Can I first comment on something else that was said by my co-panelists?
39:57Go on, sir.
39:58I have a disagreement there when he says that it is not, there are no parallels with Hamas.
40:03You know, I was invited, on their invitation, I went to Israel two months ago, and I have
40:08actually gone to that NOAA music site and the kibbutz where the carnage has taken place.
40:13I think the way Hamas felt marginalized, and they used this moment, like you said, conscious
40:20of the fact that there will be massive retaliation, they used this fact, this attack, to get their
40:27issue back in the global spotlight.
40:29We also know that a couple of months ago, Hamas operatives' leaders came and met, they
40:36came and met Lashkar-e-Taiva leadership.
40:39It happened, it was in the news.
40:41And thereafter, we see Asim Munir, the Pakistan chief's rant, I would call it.
40:47And like he said earlier, it was said that every covert operation is cleared at the highest
40:54level.
40:55So putting all this together, over the last five years, Pakistan's diminishing relevance
41:01in Kashmir, as Kashmir started improving after Article 370 in peace, development, tourism,
41:06in all factors and the political process it has actually set in.
41:09So Pakistan wanted to bring this back into the global limelight.
41:15They chose the day very carefully.
41:16Asim Munir set the stage for that, calling out Hindu males.
41:20And they chose the date very carefully when U.S. Vice President was in India, Prime Minister
41:27Modi was in Saudi Arabia, and that was the day that was chosen to put this out.
41:31So I think they are doing exactly what Hamas did.
41:34Situation is different, circumstances are different, responses will be different, and
41:38then we will go from here.
41:40Okay, I'm running out of time, so I want, you know, just to speak for a moment and try
41:44and explain, because in one instance, after Uri, it took about 11 days, in the second it
41:49took about 12, to keep in mind that if you imagine that something will happen tomorrow
41:54day after, it may not.
41:55This may be a long process where the intelligence folks on the ground, the technical assets we
42:01have up in the air, the army, the navy and the air force will take their time, and I
42:06want General Dua to talk about this first.
42:10Everyone's expecting action, they're all looking at their television screens, imagining
42:13up-talking, up-talking, so when is this going to happen?
42:16Do you want to explain why this may be a long-drawn process?
42:21Remember, you mentioned Munich, I think, the fact is, it took several months, and in some
42:26cases, years, for each of the, yeah, in some cases, years, for each of the perpetrators
42:31and planners to be brought down by the Mossad.
42:34Right.
42:35So, when Uri happened, we launched a surgical strike, I was the core commander, we planned
42:41and had launched it within 10 days.
42:43Because it was a very shallow strike, it was decided to target the terrorists who had actually
42:47come in, and we decided to target their camps.
42:51When Pulwama happened, we decided to go in a little deeper, but precision airstrikes were
42:58launched, so it took 12 days and we launched them.
43:01But this time, it is clear.
43:02Firstly, we cannot sort of repeat the same kind of tactics.
43:07What shape it will take, we'll know later, but it has been clarified that we will no longer
43:12just keep hitting terrorists.
43:13Of course.
43:14Only.
43:14We have to hit their backers.
43:16Who are their backers?
43:17It is well known.
43:17I actually openly said that the Pakistan army is the biggest terrorist organization.
43:21No, but the backers will disappear.
43:23Sir, at a time of heightened alert, they'll not be where you usually find them.
43:27I'm coming to that.
43:28So, the point is, it is not going to happen.
43:31For that reason and more, it will not happen in a hurry.
43:35The country has to be patient.
43:36I will request you.
43:37The media has to be patient.
43:39Let's not keep playing this up.
43:40Abhi tak kyo ne huwa, abhi tak ho jana shahiye ta.
43:42No, please give the leadership, the military leadership and the political leadership a chance.
43:47They will do something.
43:48It will let us be patient because this time, the results, I beg your pardon, the response
43:55has to be very far-reaching.
43:58And to make it far-reaching, if it doesn't have to be shallow, it will take a little time.
44:02I want you to speak about this because I think it's very important for everyone watching
44:05to understand that there's nothing that may happen.
44:08I mean, it may happen tomorrow.
44:09Who the hell knows?
44:10But by and large, to be sure that you're not punching in the air, that when you punch,
44:14you get a knockout blow, you need to be certain that you know where the enemy is, punch him
44:19hard in a way that it hits him, and that's a process that takes time.
44:23Absolutely.
44:26You know, I think people in India expected swift retribution.
44:32First tranche of that came yesterday, within 24 hours.
44:35I mean, the series of actions that India has taken, you know, especially on the India's
44:40water treaty, assuages that to some extent.
44:43Not really.
44:44There's a lot of people who are saying we should have opened up the big guns, the artillery,
44:47the motards along the line of control, and we should have started pounding park positions.
44:51That should have started.
44:51That again is tactical, isn't it?
44:54That is, you're not hitting where it hurts.
44:56So, if you have to hit where it hurts, and where the consequences are unimaginable, as
45:00what the Prime Minister said, you will need time.
45:03You will need time to plan meticulously, because it cannot be a shot in the dark.
45:09It has to be very cold, calculated retaliation or action that will make sure that Pakistan
45:17is not in a position to repeat a Pulwama or a Pahlgaam ever again.
45:23So, for that, I think all of us should be patient.
45:26No, but is that achievable?
45:27Give the government time.
45:27Ambassador, yes, and I do think it's possible that we strike back so hard, below the threshold
45:33of escalation to war, that Pakistan learns a lesson that Pulwama and Pahlgaam should never
45:38happen again.
45:39I'm sure it's possible.
45:40How?
45:40But I wouldn't like to second guess what the government is going to do.
45:43And, as one of your panelists said, we have to show patience, because if you want to achieve
45:48results, and yet you do not want to escalate into a full-blown war, we really need to plan
45:54meticulously.
45:55And I think keeping the enemy, and I'm using that word very carefully, keeping the enemy
46:02on tenterhooks is part of battle strategy.
46:05And I think it's very important that while we give a kinetic response, we do it with time
46:11and place of our choosing.
46:14Rajinder Kumar, you want to talk about why it might take time and the challenge in ensuring,
46:20and I just want to give that example.
46:21Let's assume you identify a launch pad, like a bala court or a place where they are being
46:27trained, they can just move them out into neighboring villages.
46:30And then when you strike, Pakistan can claim that civilians were killed, and therefore identifying
46:35the right targets and ensuring that you hit them successfully is important, and that's
46:40where the role of the intelligence becomes very, very crucial.
46:47Yes, that's very important that the proper targets are identified.
46:52But let me also tell you, the terrorists don't stay in one block.
46:57They always stay scattered in different places, in one house two fellows, in another hut three
47:06fellows, in another hut five fellows.
47:08So, it is not very easy, and if we have to very construct, very cleverly do it, in the sense
47:21that all these people are finished in one go, which is a very, very difficult task.
47:30You know, that's a very difficult task, because, General Duwa, how many forces do you send in?
47:36You know, it's not like this is the Mossad where you can go in against a substantially
47:42weaker enemy, while of course we have the military advantage.
47:46The asymmetry is not as much as it is between Israel and the Hamas, for example.
47:50No two situations can be equal.
47:57That's a very different country and a different setup and different dynamics.
48:03The level of forces, the timings, you know, these are the things that actually we cannot
48:08second-guess.
48:08And I would venture enough to say that we should not even try to second-guess over here, because
48:15we might sort of end up giving some ideas.
48:18We should not try and second-guess the force levels, the timings, the targets.
48:23We should leave that to the leadership, both political and military.
48:27Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor, last time, you know, we had a helicopter brought down in friendly
48:32fire.
48:33We had an Indian Air Force pilot, Abhinandan Vartman, whose plane dropped and he fell in
48:42Pakistan.
48:43Do you think we've learned from, has the Indian Air Force learned from those lessons?
48:47Are you confident that what happened last time won't get repeated?
48:50I'll come to the point later, but I have a point to make before that, listening to all
48:55the distinguished co-panelists.
48:57The main issue has not come out in today's discussion, that is the Punjabi dominance of
49:04every activity in Pakistan.
49:07The Punjabis are controlling the army, the businesses, the other establishments.
49:11And everybody in Pakistan, be it as Sindhi, Manuchi, Pathan, or PAOK, people, Gilgit Balsam,
49:18they're, you know, taken extreme hatred towards the Punjabis.
49:23Now, this Indus water, which the Indian government will affect Punjab the maximum, because none
49:31of these rivers are going through Punjab.
49:33And it is the canals and the dams which have diverted water towards Punjab.
49:38If in some way it gets implemented, it is going to hit them the hardest.
49:42Now, the Punjabis who are controlling everything, the businesses, the army, and the other associates,
49:48would be the target, in my mind, this time, which would be hit and which should be hit to
49:54create the maximum damage.
49:56Because a few Balochis dying here, a few Pashtuns dying here and there, doesn't make much of a
50:02difference.
50:02The terrorists, there are thousands of madarsas, and they produce people to get killed.
50:06So even if you take out a Balochot or a other kind of thing, it doesn't create much of a
50:11difference.
50:12Now, coming to the main question that you asked about lessons learned after the previous
50:16distance, see, in every conflict, in every conflict, beat Israel, beat U.S., there is
50:22friendly damages.
50:24There are damages because, in this called fog of war, they're in a dynamic situation, the
50:29detection of the things.
50:31The lessons learned from the previous distance have been put in place.
50:35They have been put in place.
50:37There have been a lot of, you know, table top and actual exercise and tactics being developed.
50:42And I'm sure that if a situation so demands now, we have better people.
50:48Okay.
50:48Admiral Shekhar Sina, you know, as I conclude this discussion, your message to everyone
50:54watching in terms of what they need to keep in mind.
50:57Because my sense is, patience, don't build up public pressure where everyone's saying,
51:03Kaboga attack, Kaboga, don't take it to that kind of a level.
51:08Just stay calm.
51:09Let the Army, Navy, Air Force, the Intelligence Services do their job.
51:13What would you be telling everyone watching, sir?
51:16Oh, absolutely right, Rahul.
51:17If you look at the intentions of the Prime Minister, these are time-consuming and it is
51:23something permanent in nature.
51:26It is not something temporary.
51:27It is not a very tactical statement that he has made.
51:31It's a very strategic statement of very far-reaching.
51:35He will have to simultaneously create, you know, capitalize on the world opinion which exists
51:41as of now, and continue to feed the developments that are taking place.
51:47He'll have to take a few countries into confidence because you don't just go and
51:51vulcanize a country like this.
51:54And therefore, firstly, you don't have to be on a surface.
51:57You have to assist Pakistan in imploding.
52:00You have to assist the people in taking Pakistan apart.
52:04Unless you take out this Punjabi element from this entire issue, then the Army is not going
52:09alone.
52:09But we have to be very cautious, you know, about the nuclear weapon, you know, falling
52:15in the hands of somebody else.
52:17Or will that be taken out first?
52:18You know, these priorities will be worked out by the government and the military and intelligence
52:25leadership.
52:26You know, we've had a very high-quality discussion.
52:28I mean, there are things that can't be said on television.
52:30But from what can be said, you heard some super sharp military diplomatic intelligence minds
52:37give us their sense of the state of play at this moment.
52:42My sense, be patient.
52:44Let those who know, do their job.
52:48Ambassador Yashina, thank you.
52:49Thank you very much to General Dua, Air Marshal Sanjeev Kapoor, Vice Admiral Shekar Sina, Tilak
52:56Deveshwar, and Rajinder Kumar for joining me and for enlightening us with the depth of
53:01your experience and knowledge and telling us how to frame our thinking at this time when
53:07India waits for Prime Minister Modi and the Indian Armed Forces to strike back.
53:13Thank you for tuning in.
53:14Goodbye.
53:15Good night.