14 day weather outlook presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office's 14-day outlook in which we discuss the most likely weather patterns for the next couple of weeks.
00:06And as I record this, the weather pattern in control of the weather across the UK is high pressure, bringing widespread sunny skies and day by day rises in temperature.
00:19Remarkable temperatures expected for the last day of April and the first day of May because this high pressure is allowing plenty of warmth to build up
00:28as the strong sun that we're seeing at the moment rises temperatures each day.
00:33But later Thursday for the north and into Friday for the south, we're going to see cooler air arrive as the centre of gravity for the high pressure in charge drifts to the west.
00:46That means a bit more of an Atlantic feed of air and that means temperatures back to around average.
00:52In fact, in some parts, as you can see on Sunday, temperatures will be suppressed because of a east to northeasterly wind.
00:59So feeling actually much chillier along some of these eastern parts of the UK.
01:04But we still have high pressure to the northwest of the UK for the upcoming bank holiday weekend.
01:10And that means apart from a few showers, most likely towards southern counties of England on Saturday, most of the UK will again experience largely fine, largely settled weather, albeit with that reduction in temperatures.
01:26And for the bank holiday itself, as you can see, this is the most likely weather pattern.
01:31High pressure sitting just to the west of the UK, very similar to the previous chart I showed.
01:35And this west to northwest of the airflow across the country.
01:39So Atlantic air and temperatures back to around average, although most places settled, with the exception of the far north of Scotland, where there is likely to be some rain.
01:48That's what these blue colours suggest.
01:50Now into Tuesday, the 6th of May, the most likely weather pattern is very similar.
01:55High pressure sitting to the west or southwest of the UK.
01:58Always the possibility that low pressure will swing by and just bring some more changeable weather to the north of Scotland.
02:05But unlikely to affect much of the rest of the UK because of that high pressure clinging on, it's going to stay mostly settled.
02:13Little change then as we go into Wednesday.
02:15Now there are alternative weather patterns that are possibly going to affect the UK, but they all look very similar.
02:21They all have high pressure just to the west or close to the UK, keeping things very benign into next week.
02:28And the only place where we're likely to see any more changeable weather is the north and northwest of Scotland, with some rain and a bit more of a breeze here.
02:38As far as temperatures are concerned through next week, as I said, back to around average, this chart suggests that in that most likely weather pattern scenario, temperatures broadly will be close to average.
02:50Although a few spots, particularly towards the east, could be just above.
02:54So not as hot as we're experiencing at the moment.
02:59But in the sunshine by day, the sun is still strong.
03:03It's still going to feel very warm.
03:05Now by the time we get to the end of next week, of course, there are various weather patterns that come into the mix, but they all look very similar.
03:12So this is the most likely one, high pressure to the west, this northwest to the airflow.
03:17If I just step aside, you can see two other likely weather patterns, one showing a ridge of high pressure extending from the northwest and one showing a ridge of high pressure across the south.
03:25In other words, high pressure both for Friday and into Sunday, the 11th of May, looks dominant across the UK.
03:33Just some uncertainty about exactly where that high pressure will be, whether it's on top of the UK or just to the west.
03:39Either way, for the following weekend, it looks largely settled.
03:44And that's what this chart suggests as well.
03:47This is from the European model and it shows the seven-day pressure anomaly from the 5th to the 12th of May.
03:52And a strong suggestion there that higher than average pressure is likely, particularly to the west of the UK, but extending across the country, bringing largely fine weather.
04:00Now, the only issue is that this is a relatively recent change in the computer model output.
04:08If you go back a few days, then the models were suggesting more of a changeable or even unsettled flavour to the weather through next week.
04:16So we have to be a little cautious, but through the last few days of model runs, they have become increasingly settled, increasingly likely that high pressure will be close to the UK, if not over, for the full two weeks ahead.
04:30So high pressure nearby, the most likely scenario for week two of this forecast.
04:35Mostly fine, just not as hot as it's expected this week because of that Atlantic feed of air.
04:43And we'll keep you updated on the day-to-day details.
04:45Of course, you can follow those updates on the Met Office YouTube channel.
04:48Bye-bye.