South Korea is heading toward a demographic collapse unlike anything the world has seen before. With the lowest fertility rate ever recorded and a rapidly aging population, the country faces a future of economic decline, shrinking cities, cultural erosion, and a vanishing workforce.
By 2060, nearly half of South Koreans could be over the age of 65, and entire regions may be abandoned as the population continues to shrink.
How did South Korea reach this point? Why might it no longer be possible to reverse the trend? And what does this mean for other countries on a similar path?
By 2060, nearly half of South Koreans could be over the age of 65, and entire regions may be abandoned as the population continues to shrink.
How did South Korea reach this point? Why might it no longer be possible to reverse the trend? And what does this mean for other countries on a similar path?
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CreativityTranscript
00:00South Korea is over.
00:03This sounds brutal, but South Korea will soon start melting on all fronts.
00:08Demographically, economically, socially, culturally and militarily.
00:14Because for decades, the country has been experiencing a fertility crisis unprecedented
00:19in human history.
00:20And we've probably reached a point of no return.
00:23By 2060, the South Korea we know and love today will no longer exist.
00:29What will the collapse look like?
00:31And why is it now almost impossible to stop?
00:35The real population bomb.
00:38To have a stable population, you need a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman.
00:43In the 1950s, South Koreans used to have 6 children on average.
00:48In the 1980s, the rate fell below 2.
00:51And in 2023, it was 0.72 kids per woman, the lowest ever recorded in history.
00:58In Seoul, fertility is even lower, around 0.55.
01:03On average, about half of the women here won't have any kids, and the other half, just one.
01:08What do these numbers actually mean in the real world?
01:12If fertility stays as it is, then 100 South Koreans will have 36 kids.
01:17When they grow up, they will have 13 kids, who will then have 5.
01:22Within 4 generations, 100 South Koreans will turn into 5.
01:27If we look at today's South Korean population pyramid, we see this is pretty real.
01:32There's only one 1-year-old for 4 50-year-olds.
01:35After 4 decades below the replacement level, the consequences were still largely invisible.
01:40Today, South Korea's population is at an all-time high, as are its workforce and its GDP, which
01:45is still growing.
01:46But demographics hits you like a freight train.
01:49You hear it vaguely in the distance, and then it runs you over.
01:53South Korea is about to be hit.
01:56Let's time travel 35 years into the future, to 2060, and see what the country will look
02:02like then.
02:03When it comes to demographics, the most commonly used projections are those put together by
02:07the UN.
02:09They envisage three scenarios, low fertility, medium, and high.
02:13But in the past, all medium UN projections for South Korea have consistently been too positive.
02:19Between 2022 and 2023 alone, fertility in South Korea dropped by another 8%.
02:26So we're going to use the latest low fertility scenario, which has been the most accurate in
02:30the last few years.
02:32But keep in mind that we're still talking about projections, and the future is a faraway
02:36land.
02:37Okay, let's do it.
02:40In 2060, South Korea's population pyramid will look like this.
02:45The population will have shrunk by 30%.
02:4716 million South Koreans will have disappeared in just 35 years.
02:52And it will be the oldest country in human history.
02:55One in two South Koreans will be over the age of 65.
02:59Less than one in ten will be under 25.
03:02And only one in 100 will be small children.
03:06Imagine waking up in a country where the streets are strangely quiet with no children playing
03:10on them.
03:12The entire cities have been abandoned.
03:14Half of the population is elderly and living either alone or in overcrowded retirement homes,
03:21with a minority of people desperately trying to keep society running.
03:25There will be a few major consequences.
03:28Economic collapse.
03:29In 2023, a breathtaking 40% of South Koreans over 65 lived below the poverty line.
03:36But in 2060, this number may seem lovely in comparison.
03:40Today, South Korea has one of the largest pension funds in the world, worth about US$730 billion.
03:48But it is projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.
03:54So in 2060, pensions will have to be paid by the working population.
03:59Estimates vary, but for a pension system to work, the minimum a society needs is between
04:04two to three workers per retiree paying for them with their taxes.
04:08But even if we assume that all South Koreans over 15 will be working in 2060, the country
04:13will have less than one worker per senior.
04:16Workers will be unable to stem the incredible costs.
04:20So not only will poverty among the elderly be common, but a big chunk will be forced to
04:24work.
04:25Except they may not be able to find jobs because by 2060, the South Korean economy may have collapsed.
04:33Broadly speaking, the size of an economy is linked to the size of its workforce.
04:36To have a big economy, you need a lot of workers to produce a lot of things and a lot more people
04:41to buy them.
04:42Today, South Korea has about 37 million people of working age, generating a GDP of about US$1.7
04:48trillion.
04:49But by 2060, its workforce would have shrunk to less than half, to about 17 million.
04:56Of course, technological progress means that productivity will be higher and each individual will probably
05:01produce more than today.
05:03But even if productivity keeps growing at the same rate or more than we have seen in the
05:07last decades, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s.
05:12In other words, South Korea will enter a permanent economic recession.
05:16There are more optimistic projections that see the recession begin as late as 2050, but they
05:21are based on the medium UN demographic scenario and there are no signs that we are heading there.
05:26Another factor in the economy is science, technology and innovation.
05:30Areas in which big leaps are typically made by young adults and the middle aged.
05:34Young people have fresh ideas that contribute to the wealth of society.
05:38Significantly fewer people working also means way less tax for the government, which will
05:42be trapped between a rock and a hard place.
05:45On the one hand, having to provide for half the population that are seniors.
05:48On the other, seeing its income diminish.
05:51It will be forced to shut down or cut essential services like hospitals or social benefits.
05:57Since infrastructure only works at scale, smaller communities may be abandoned as the country
06:02contracts into its metropolitan areas.
06:04And of course, there won't be enough money to invest in the future.
06:08This is bad.
06:10But what will happen to South Korean society and culture may be worse.
06:15Societal and cultural collapse.
06:18Depending on how societies will develop is extra hard, but there are a few pretty unavoidable
06:22trends.
06:23Today, already about 20% of Koreans live alone.
06:27Also, 20% report having no close friends or relatives.
06:31By 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.
06:38Young adults between 25 and 35 will only make up 5% of the population and typically have no
06:44siblings at all.
06:46This leaves the elderly with almost no close family and young adults with little family
06:50and few potential friends, especially outside of big cities.
06:53A loneliness epidemic of epic proportions is all but guaranteed.
06:58On top of that, South Korean culture will probably experience a huge decline.
07:03In 2000, there were 17.5 million South Koreans between 25 and 45 and they made up 37% of the population.
07:12This was the generation that brought us K-pop, K-drama, K-food and many other trends that spread
07:17around the world.
07:18In 2060, there will be just 5.6 million people in that age group and there will only be 16%
07:24of the population.
07:26Many cultural traditions are already struggling because the older generations are having trouble
07:30finding young people to pass them on to.
07:33As young people disappear, many traditions will die out.
07:37Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away.
07:42And on a personal level, what kind of experience will it be growing up in 2060?
07:47What will youth culture be like in a country of seniors, where many universities, schools
07:51and kindergartens are abandoned as there are no longer children to fill them with life?
07:56What kind of job prospects will they face and what will politics look like?
08:01If young people don't want to remain alone, they'll concentrate in Seoul or a few other
08:05big cities or, worse for South Korea, emigrate to other countries.
08:10Rural areas will decline and most smaller cities will turn into ghost towns.
08:14We're already seeing this in Japan, which has almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural
08:19areas.
08:20Large parts of South Korea will simply vanish and be reclaimed by nature.
08:25Last but not least, South and North Korea are technically at war.
08:29And they could very well still be in 2060.
08:32Will South Korea still be able to afford to have its young men do 18 months of mandatory
08:36military service?
08:37Today, 5% of men of combat age are enrolled in the military.
08:41In 2060, it would have to be 15% just to match today's numbers.
08:46Okay, wait, this is all a bit much.
08:49Is there no way back?
08:50Why, there really is no way back.
08:53The problem with the democratic freight train is that once it hits, things become irreversible.
08:58Let's say fertility in South Korea magically triples to the replacement rate of 2.1 children
09:03per woman and stays there.
09:05In 2060, it will be an inverted pyramid on top of a barrel.
09:09And there would still be only 1.5 people of working age per senior over 65.
09:14Even in the best made-up scenario, South Korea has to pass through an unavoidable bottleneck
09:19before it will recover.
09:21But there is also a kernel of hope here.
09:23Yes, the situation is grim.
09:25But at least in the long term, recovery is possible if South Korea enacts rapid and societal
09:30changes that make its population want to have kids again.
09:34In 2024, births rose for the first time in 9 years, 3% more than in 2023.
09:40But for that to continue, South Korea needs to face the music and ask how they got to this
09:45point.
09:46How could it get that bad?
09:49In general, as societies get richer, more educated and child mortality plummets, people
09:54decide to have fewer kids.
09:56What makes South Korea special is that it is somehow supercharging all of these trends.
10:01South Korea lifted itself out of poverty in record time, but in doing so it developed
10:05a unique kind of workaholism and extreme competitiveness.
10:09Although the work week is 40 hours and the legal maximum is 52 per week, unpaid overtime is
10:15normal for many and the government even proposed to raise legal work time to 69 hours per week.
10:21Despite this, South Korea has relatively low wages and a high cost of living.
10:26Real estate in big cities is out of reach for most people.
10:29The cost of education is extremely high since families have to pay for private lessons if
10:33they want to send their kids to a high-tier college.
10:36All of this while South Korea spends less on family benefits than most other rich countries.
10:42Old-fashioned cultural norms make matters even worse.
10:45Marriage is all but mandatory if a couple wants to start a family.
10:49In 2023, only 4.7% of babies were born to unmarried women.
10:54Out of all developed countries, South Korean men do just about the least share of housework
10:58and childcare within their families.
11:01This leaves women with a disproportionate amount of work if they want to keep their jobs
11:05after a pregnancy, while many men are overwhelmed by the societal expectation to be the main breadwinner
11:10and have successful careers.
11:13Starting a family or not is a personal decision and most South Koreans are deciding against it.
11:18The bottom line is that South Korea has created a culture that leads to very few kids.
11:24Conclusion
11:25Demographic collapse is not an abstract thing in the future, it's happening right now.
11:31And it's not just South Korea.
11:32In 2023, China had a fertility rate of 1, Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, the UK 1.6 and
11:40the US 1.6.
11:42Which sounds so much better, doesn't it?
11:44Well, after four generations, a fertility rate of 1.6 means 60% fewer new people.
11:51A fertility rate of 1.2 means 87% fewer people.
11:55And fertility rates are still falling with no sign of stabilisation or recovery.
12:00The weirdest thing about all of this is that almost nobody involved in the public discourse
12:05has truly grasped the gravity of the situation.
12:08The last century was utterly dominated by overpopulation narratives and people who say that we need more
12:13kids seem weird.
12:15And if you do the maths, the future just seems to be too insane to be true, like it's hard
12:20to believe.
12:21None of this has ever happened before.
12:23So low birth rates are mostly discussed in the context of worker shortages, not as the
12:29existential threat to our societies, cultures, wealth and our way of life that they are.
12:34If we don't take it seriously very soon and change the DNA of our modern societies in a
12:39way that encourages young people to start having children again, then the rest of the century
12:43will be pretty grim, for those of us who will live through it.
12:47The demographic freight train stops for nobody.
12:50We finally need to realise that it's hurtling down the tracks right at us.
12:55Multilayered issues like demographic change are hard to break through in our current media
13:00landscape and easy to miss out on.
13:03This is why we rely on Ground News, a long-time sponsor and ally in helping find real stories
13:09of importance amongst the jumble of information we're confronted with every day.
13:13In a nutshell, the app and website gather the world's news in one place so you can compare coverage, see the bigger picture and make informed decisions.
13:22Using Ground News, you can see that earlier this year South Korea was officially classified as a super-aged society, a term that basically summarises the effects we described in this video, but less than 100 sources covered this development.
13:35Interestingly, less than 20% of them are left-leaning media.
13:39Ground News has a special feature, the blind spot feed, that draws attention to stories like that which get lost amidst your personal publication preferences.
13:47Most importantly, you can clearly compare how the issue was covered.
13:51A government-funded source out of Slovenia, for example, mentioned Europe is considering immigration as part of a solution, while Korea, Japan and China are avoiding that aspect.
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