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00:00I'm going to do a real Senbero documentary, where I calculate my own money and put it together.
00:10On Saturday, I'm going to do a real Senbero documentary in Odori, Kasuga.
00:26Good morning.
00:28On May 17th, I'm going to talk about the news.
00:32Let me introduce today's guest.
00:35Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, who specializes in American politics and foreign policy.
00:40Good morning.
00:42Thank you for having me.
00:44Mr. Yoko Hirose of Keio University, who specializes in the former Soviet Union.
00:49Good morning.
00:51Thank you for having me.
00:53And Mr. Takashi Hirano of Ukraineform, a Japanese-language editor.
01:00He will be joining us via Zoom from Ukraine.
01:02Thank you for joining us, Mr. Hirano.
01:04Thank you for having me.
01:07Today, I'm going to talk with these three people.
01:11Let's take a look at what's going on.
01:13Here it is.
01:16Mr. Tsuneo.
01:18I thought it was going to move forward, but it's not.
01:23I'd like the guests to evaluate whether or not there were any results.
01:30The keyword is the decoration delegation.
01:34We talked about the delegation of President Zelensky from Russia.
01:37We talked about the delegation of President Zelensky from Russia.
01:43I'd like to read out what the Russian side was aiming for.
01:49Moody's Ratings, a U.S. lock-up company,
01:54lowered its long-term credit lock-up from the highest level on the 16th.
02:00It pointed out that the U.S. asset deficit has not been reduced under the Trump administration and the Fed.
02:06Moody's was the only company in the U.S. that had its lock-up at the highest level.
02:14The fact that Moody's is no longer at the highest level means that the company is no longer at the highest level.
02:20It's a pretty big deal.
02:22The Moody's announcement raised the U.S. long-term credit to 4.49% at one point.
02:27It went up to 4.48%.
02:29At the end of the 16th, it was 4.48%.
02:34Let's hear from Mr. Watanabe.
02:39Mr. Watanabe, what do you think about the lock-up?
02:42Well, Moody's is saying that it has nothing to do with tariffs.
02:48But by raising tariffs, the value of the company will drop,
02:55and this will have an impact on the Trump administration's tariff policy.
02:59But this won't solve the long-term asset deficit.
03:04This is a structural problem.
03:06Even if it's not Trump, it's still a problem.
03:08It's a complete income, but they're saying it's going to be a source of cash.
03:13That's right.
03:14And as Mr. Watanabe said, for example, Japan is also the most world-class country in the U.S.
03:21The fact that the interest rate is going up means that the value of the company is going down.
03:27It's something we can't ignore.
03:28That's right.
03:29Actually, when the tariffs were imposed,
03:33a lot of Japanese investors sold their shares.
03:38The Trump administration should be very concerned about this.
03:43That's right.
03:45After the commercial break, let's take a look at what was decided and what was not decided
03:51in the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which were held for the first time in three years.
03:56We will resume direct negotiations, without any preconditions.
04:05On the 11th, Putin, the Russian president, called for a direct negotiation with Ukraine.
04:13On the other hand, Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, also asked for a 30-day ceasefire.
04:22I will be in Turkey on the 15th of May.
04:26And I'm waiting for Putin in Turkey. Personally.
04:31That's what he said.
04:37The U.S. President Trump also expressed his intention to participate in direct negotiations,
04:42and the expectations were high that the negotiations would proceed in the three-nation competition.
04:50The Russian delegation led by President Medzhensky appeared in Istanbul, Turkey.
04:58President Putin was not present.
05:05Mr. Zelensky.
05:08We need to understand the level of the Russian delegation,
05:12what are their mandates, and whether they are able to accept something themselves.
05:17Because we all know who is making the decisions in Russia.
05:23The Russian delegation expressed dissatisfaction that it was just a decoration,
05:27and once again claimed that they needed to negotiate without any preconditions.
05:33As for the negotiations without any preconditions, Mr. Trump said,
05:38Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together, okay?
05:43He also said that the U.S. delegation needed to negotiate without any preconditions.
05:52In the end, a day later, the Turkish delegation also participated in the direct negotiations.
06:01I would like to emphasize something here.
06:04We will decide the next step together in terms of the choices we will make and the steps we will take.
06:11It is also very important for these negotiations to form the basis of a leaders' meeting.
06:20The negotiations, which are said to have lasted about two hours,
06:25The Russian side, as a prerequisite for the ceasefire,
06:29sought the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the area occupied by the Russian army.
06:38It was once again confirmed that there is a big gap between Russia and Ukraine,
06:44which is a precondition that is hard to accept in Ukraine.
06:48After the direct negotiations, the representatives of both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners,
06:57and to continue the direct negotiations in the future.
07:07The road to a still invisible ceasefire.
07:11Will Ukraine and Russia be able to find a compromise by continuing the negotiations?
07:23Trump, who is also motivated by the ceasefire,
07:27said that he would talk to Putin as soon as he was ready.
07:34Will the U.S.-Russia talks be realized?
07:41I will tell you about the Russian-Ukrainian direct negotiations, which have been held for about three years.
07:47I will look at the three themes, but the first one is the results of the direct negotiations.
07:53The Russian-Ukrainian direct negotiations, which have been held for about three years,
07:57were held in Istanbul, Turkey on the 16th, a day late from the scheduled 15th, for about two hours.
08:05President Putin and President Zelensky did not attend, and it was a high-level meeting.
08:11The Russian side, led by President Mezhinsky, who also participated in the direct negotiations in 2022,
08:18was attended by former Japanese Ambassador Garujin Gaimjikan and Fomin Kokubojikan.
08:24The Ukrainian side, led by Umerov Kokubojikan, was attended by the Director-General of the Intelligence Agency and Deputy Director-General of the Military Intelligence Agency.
08:33The contents of the agreement are the continuation of the direct negotiations and the documentization of the conditions for the ceasefire.
08:39However, there is no clear deadline for this.
08:43And a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war between 1,000 people and 1,000 people.
08:49Ukraine has called for the inauguration of President Zelensky and President Putin,
08:54and Russia is seeking to withdraw the Ukrainian army from the periphery occupied by Russia.
09:01Ms. Hiroshi, what do you think of this result?
09:04Well, if you look at the situation from the point of view of the situation,
09:10it is as expected.
09:13As we no longer have the ability to negotiate at the level of prisoners of war,
09:17I don't think we can expect a high-level progress.
09:21In such a situation, I think it is necessary to think that it is better to decide to exchange prisoners of war.
09:28These participants, especially the Russian delegation,
09:32say that President Zelensky is a decoration,
09:35but what should we look at, including Mr. Mezhinsky, who is at the center of this?
09:40Mr. Mezhinsky and Mr. Fomin will continue from 2022.
09:45Russia is in a position to resume talks in March 2022.
09:52In order to strengthen the impression that the reunion will continue,
09:57it is very important that two people, Mr. Mezhinsky and Mr. Fomin, are included.
10:03As for Mr. Galuzhin, it is a short time, so I think it is okay to include him.
10:09Another person, Mr. Koshchukov, who is a member of the GRU, is included.
10:18He is a person who has a lot of attention from the west,
10:23and he was sanctioned from the United States by intervening in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
10:29In 2018, there was a murder of a double-spy named Skripal in the United States.
10:38After all, he is not dead.
10:41Mr. Sturges, who did it, was killed, and he was sanctioned from the UK.
10:48He is a very subtle person.
10:51Even such a person is included.
10:53Is Mr. Mezhinsky in a position where he can directly talk to Mr. Putin?
10:59That's exactly right.
11:01He is said to be Mr. Putin's history teacher, and he is a former Minister of Culture.
11:06Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, Mr. Putin was in complete contact with the outside world,
11:12but Mr. Mezhinsky taught history to Putin quite frequently.
11:17It is also said that Mr. Mezhinsky taught the basics of the so-called Ukrainian thesis
11:23that Putin announced in April 2021.
11:28Is he originally from Ukraine?
11:31He was born in Ukraine.
11:34He is completely Russian and a patriot.
11:39He has experience in Ukraine, so he can understand the feelings of Ukrainians.
11:45He has also played a role in the emotional part of the negotiations.
11:53Regardless of whether he has the right to decide, he is not just a decoration, is he?
11:59That's right. He is not just a decoration.
12:02However, if you look at it from the Ukrainian side, there are three ministers in Ukraine,
12:07so of course he is inferior to them.
12:10If you look at it from the Ukrainian side, it can't be helped to be called a decoration.
12:15Mr. Hirano, how do you accept the results of this direct negotiation?
12:22Well, if you look at the big picture, the most clear thing is that Russia has no intention of making peace or a ceasefire at all.
12:30Even though Ukraine and Russia pushed for an unconditional ceasefire on the 10th,
12:36Putin, who should have decided on a ceasefire, did not come out.
12:42I think it is well known that Russia does not feel the merit of making a ceasefire at all at this stage.
12:51I don't think things will move unless Russia is pressured to make a ceasefire,
12:56but I think it will be important whether or not the U.S. will be pressured in the future.
13:04From President Zelensky's point of view, how do you feel about the results this time?
13:15Well, I don't think Zelensky thought that Russia would come to a ceasefire.
13:21I told him to come out, but I don't think he came out.
13:26The reason I called him out is because the U.S. believes in Putin's goodwill.
13:34To make it clear that Russia does not intend to make a ceasefire at all and does not intend to make peace,
13:41I think he took action this time to make the logic clear that he must put pressure on Russia.
13:54I see. Mr. Watanabe, what did you think?
13:58Well, first of all, President Trump is very motivated in the first place,
14:07and he was angry that the U.S. side, that is, the Russian side, did not come to a ceasefire at all.
14:15As for the Russian side, they are at least motivated.
14:20However, as the two of you have said so far, they are not actually motivated.
14:26That's what stood out.
14:29Let's check the significance of that.
14:32President Putin called for a direct negotiation between Russia and Ukraine in response to President Trump's call for a 30-day non-conditional ceasefire.
14:43President Zelensky said that if there was no summit, the negotiations would not progress, and that he would wait for Putin's death in Turkey,
14:50and that President Zelensky, President Putin, and President Trump would meet and proceed to a ceasefire.
14:58However, Russia dispatched a delegation led by President Medzhensky, and Ukraine dispatched a delegation led by Defense Minister Umelov.
15:07As a result, President Trump did not participate.
15:10Mr. Watanabe, how did the Trump administration react to this call for a ceasefire?
15:17Originally, at first, they thought of a ceasefire, that is, a ceasefire within 24 hours.
15:25The reason for the ceasefire was that Ukraine would be in trouble if U.S. support stopped,
15:34and they would push the conditions from Putin to Ukraine.
15:39If that was the case, it would be advantageous to Russia, so Putin would also come.
15:43But it wasn't like that at all.
15:45Ukraine put a lot of pressure on them to prepare,
15:49but in fact, on the 100th day of the election, before Mr. Trump was about to give a speech on the results,
15:58the Russian side launched a military attack on Ukraine,
16:02which showed that they were not motivated at all.
16:05It was probably the first time that Mr. Trump was angry with Putin.
16:09That's where it started.
16:11That's why, if Putin ignores it too much,
16:15Trump's anger will increase, and if it goes on like this,
16:19Trump will probably approach Ukraine or Europe.
16:25If that's the case, I think we have to show a position where we negotiate to some extent.
16:34That's where they started negotiating directly.
16:37It doesn't matter if Trump does it,
16:40but if he does it well, I think President Trump will show that if Putin comes, he will go.
16:47I'm sure he had expectations, but in the end, he didn't move this time,
16:52so I think there was a lot of dissatisfaction.
16:54Let's sort out the differences between the two sides.
16:57Yes, I saw a lot of differences.
17:00President Mezhinsky, who is in charge of the Russian side,
17:04said that this competition is a continuation of the peacekeeping competition in Istanbul three years ago.
17:09As a whole, we are satisfied with the results.
17:13On the other hand, Umerov, who is in charge of the Ukrainian side,
17:17said that the top priority in the competition is the liberation of war prisoners,
17:21and the second priority is securing a ceasefire.
17:25I would like to confirm the Istanbul agreement that was discussed as the Russian side's position.
17:31The Istanbul agreement, which was issued in April 2022,
17:35guarantees the security of Ukraine's NATO ceasefire,
17:38international security guarantees of Ukraine,
17:43and security guarantees by the United States, the UK, France, and Turkey.
17:47It is said that it was an advantageous condition for the Russian side
17:52that it was obliged not to ask for military support from the Ukrainian military,
17:58but to ask for military support from the Ukrainian side.
18:01It says that it guarantees security by the United States,
18:06but it does not include NATO.
18:09The Ukrainian military should be reduced,
18:12and military support should not be asked for from the Western countries.
18:15Then how can we guarantee security?
18:18It seems like that kind of agreement.
18:21The Russian side said that they had made an agreement three years ago.
18:26What do you think, Hiroko-san?
18:29As I said, it is an advantageous condition for Russia.
18:33Since last May, President Putin has been talking about this agreement.
18:40He said that he was about to make an agreement,
18:43but the British Prime Minister Johnson at the time stopped him.
18:49Originally, Ukraine and Russia were about to make an agreement,
18:53but the Russian side was interfering.
18:56That was the logic of the agreement.
18:59So this time, they are going to make an agreement again.
19:02It is an advantageous condition for Russia to make an agreement again.
19:05However, President Putin knows that Ukraine will not come to an agreement right away.
19:10So he is trying to buy time.
19:13He is trying to buy time,
19:16but he is also showing that Russia is motivated.
19:19I think he is trying to delay the sanctions.
19:25Mr. Hirano, what do you think about the Istanbul Accords?
19:30I have to be careful about this.
19:33As I always say, the Istanbul Accords are very similar to Russian propaganda.
19:39I have to be careful that it contains a lot of fake information.
19:44It is probably true that there was such an agreement.
19:48But why was there such a discussion?
19:51In other words, why was there such an advantageous discussion in Russia?
19:54Because of the invasion,
19:56and the possibility of being invaded by Kiev,
19:59and the possibility of being suppressed by Haruki,
20:02Ukraine was forced to make a decision
20:05whether the country would be destroyed or its sovereignty would be restricted.
20:10Originally, the invasion was a crime of international law,
20:13and one country's sovereignty would not be restricted by the invasion,
20:17so at that time, I thought that we had to show this kind of information
20:20rather than being destroyed,
20:23but now the situation is completely different.
20:26At that time, the election was completely different.
20:29At that time, the international community did not know whether to support it or not.
20:34Now I can see that they will definitely support Ukraine.
20:38Therefore, there is no need to go back to this agreement.
20:43Even so, Russia has made it a big goal to go back to the agreement.
20:48As Mr. Hiroshi said,
20:51Russia has been insisting that it must go back to the agreement for more than a year.
20:55What Russia is happy about now is that it can show the same shape as Istanbul at that time,
21:02and it is propaganda to say,
21:05look, it's back.
21:08I think it is necessary to listen carefully to the fact that Ukraine is insisting that it will never go back to the agreement.
21:14In other words, the Russian side is still attacking,
21:18and they often use the word narrative,
21:21but that kind of thing has spread,
21:24and now they are trying to make it a base again
21:27in the atmosphere that Ukraine is in trouble.
21:31That's right.
21:32In other words, in order to achieve the purpose of the invasion,
21:35I think that Russia's current goal is to bring it to the point where Ukraine's sovereignty is restricted,
21:39at least as much as possible.
21:41I think the goal is that Ukraine should never go back there.
21:44That's the difference.
21:46Yes.
21:47After the commercial break, we will move on to the true intentions of Russia and Ukraine.
21:58We have heard about the results of the direct negotiations held on the 16th.
22:03From here, we will move on to the second theme, the true intentions of Russia and Ukraine.
22:08President Trump is taking the initiative to stop the war,
22:11and he is pressing for information on the early stop of the war against Zelenskyy,
22:16and he is also calling for negotiations while indicating additional sanctions against Putin.
22:22President Zelenskyy has requested a 30-day non-conditional ceasefire
22:26and the withdrawal of all territory.
22:30President Zelenskyy said that the direct negotiations this time were based on a plan of 2022,
22:35with the withdrawal of four provinces, including Ukraine, the east and south,
22:39and the abandonment of Nato and Kamei.
22:44Mr. Watanabe, Mr. Trump is calling for various things and putting pressure on both sides,
22:51and the results of this direct negotiation have come out.
22:56Where is your true intention right now?
23:01My true intention is to get results.
23:04I want to stop the war.
23:06You said you wanted to stop it.
23:08It's not that I really want to stop the war,
23:10but I want to show that I stopped the war.
23:14At first, I said I would do it within 24 hours,
23:17but now I'm extending it to within six months,
23:19and six months is almost here.
23:22As for Mr. Trump's negotiation style,
23:25usually, such difficult negotiations are left to the bottom,
23:29and the top comes out when the tree has matured to some extent.
23:34But he says he's going to do it top-down,
23:37which actually makes Trump's negotiation style quite difficult.
23:43It's hard to do on the spot,
23:45and he does it while making Mr. Trump's face.
23:48In fact, he's aiming for political success,
23:51but I don't know if he's really aiming to stop the war.
23:54I don't know how much he wants to help Ukraine to some extent
23:57and maintain international order.
24:00I'm pretty suspicious.
24:02The Russian side thinks so, too.
24:04This is a chance.
24:05The Russian side also thinks so,
24:07so on the contrary, we should be considerate of the U.S.
24:09If the U.S. really cuts off Mr. Trump
24:12and keeps a distance from Putin,
24:14that would be a problem,
24:16so we should be considerate of that.
24:18Mr. Zelensky on the Ukrainian side has already had a fight with Mr. Trump.
24:22They've had a lot of fights,
24:25and the European side is working hard to build up the relationship
24:28and try to make good use of it.
24:31Conversely, if the Russian side is too cold,
24:34the U.S. side will warm up,
24:36so I think this is a chance,
24:38and the Russian side should not let them do that.
24:40That's why this time,
24:42everyone knows that the U.S. side won't move,
24:45but the U.S. side has gathered together
24:47and started this kind of competition.
24:51Ms. Hiroko, what does Mr. Putin think of Mr. Trump?
24:55I think he thought Mr. Trump was an easy opponent to deal with.
25:00For that reason, he is trying to buy time.
25:04This is the most desirable situation now,
25:08so he is throwing balls little by little to buy time.
25:13Those balls are things that Russia can allow,
25:16and things that Mr. Trump will be happy about.
25:19He's throwing them out little by little,
25:21and that's a kind of a dimensional settlement,
25:24and this time, it's a direct negotiation.
25:28Mr. Trump understands that each of them is OK.
25:34For example, last month,
25:38Mr. Trump showed a lot of irritation towards Russia,
25:42saying that neither Ukraine nor Russia would come.
25:46In this situation,
25:48losing Mr. Trump is the biggest loss for Russia.
25:54As Mr. Watanabe said,
25:57Ukraine has already experienced
26:02that this is the most avoidable situation for them.
26:07Mr. Putin, who is in the same situation as Mr. Trump,
26:10says that even if the same thing happens to Russia,
26:13he will be in trouble.
26:15He wants to buy time by somehow attracting America.
26:18In that case, like now,
26:20he will be throwing loose balls to buy time.
26:26What do the people of Ukraine think now?
26:32Let me give you a hint.
26:34This is from the International Society of Medical Research in Kyiv.
26:38This is what I looked up.
26:40It's a 30-day temporary suspension of the unconditional.
26:46They're doing a public opinion poll on this,
26:49and I think the answer is that
26:51the red part is accepted to a certain extent.
26:54I think it's a good way to show that Russia doesn't want peace as a reason.
26:59And it will be the first step towards the end of the war.
27:02And it will also be a means of resuming military support.
27:06It's something that they're accepting to a certain extent.
27:10Mr. Hirano,
27:11about the 30-day temporary suspension of the unconditional,
27:16President Zelensky initially showed some difficulty,
27:19but Mr. Trump persuaded him to accept it.
27:24What is the situation of the people of Ukraine now?
27:29Well, of course, there are no people who want war.
27:33Of course, it's an invaded country,
27:35so there's no doubt that they want the war to end as soon as possible.
27:39But the reason why the war is going on is because Russia wants it to.
27:45Even if Russia calls for a ceasefire,
27:50it probably won't be able to protect itself.
27:53We know this from our experience in 2014.
27:55All ceasefires have been broken.
27:58If there is a 30-day ceasefire,
28:01it may be possible to show that Russia is going to break it.
28:05But I don't think there are many people who are optimistic that it will lead to peace.
28:11I think you can see this from the results of this intelligence survey.
28:14And the Russian side is trying to build it up
28:20by expanding its military presence in Ukraine.
28:26So, in that sense,
28:28it's quite skeptical as to how much Ukraine will benefit from the ceasefire.
28:36In the first place, what the people of Ukraine understand well is that Russia has not given up at all.
28:41Why did Russia invade?
28:43Since 2014, including all-out invasion,
28:47Russia has a big goal of dominating Ukraine.
28:49Russia is using various means to achieve this goal.
28:52It is well known that it is better to stop military support for the ceasefire
28:56or to stop military exercises.
28:58After that, Russia will definitely violate the ceasefire and continue to invade Ukraine.
29:04The people of Ukraine have a firm understanding that
29:07the ceasefire and peace will not work without putting pressure on Russia.
29:12Let's take a look at the exchange between Zelensky and Trump.
29:18At the summit on February 28,
29:20they were supposed to agree on a resource agreement,
29:23but there was a fierce debate in front of the TV camera,
29:26and the support from the United States was temporarily stopped.
29:30In order to gain the support of the United States,
29:33President Zelensky sent a letter,
29:35talked on the phone, and restored relations.
29:38On March 19, he agreed to stop attacking the energy facility.
29:43After that, he also talked on the phone in front of the Roman Pope,
29:47and on April 30, he agreed to a resource agreement.
29:51The framework of the resource agreement between the United States and Ukraine.
29:55The United States and Ukraine will invest 50% each
29:58to create a joint fund for resource development
30:01and develop underground resources in Ukraine, such as rare earths.
30:04The funds will be used to recover funds that the United States has supported militarily.
30:11The mechanism and distribution of the funds will be decided in the future.
30:16Mr. Hirano, I heard that President Zelensky and Mr. Trump
30:20have a little bit of a relationship restoration.
30:24I also heard that the support rate is rising.
30:29What kind of attitude does the people have towards President Zelensky?
30:35Basically, I think that trust is certainly increasing.
30:39I don't think there are many people in society who think that
30:43the Zelensky administration is compromising on the interests of Ukraine
30:47and what the people don't want.
30:50In comparison, Zelensky and Putin talked directly in 2019.
30:55I think the trust in Zelensky at that time was very low.
30:58I thought that Zelensky might fail.
31:01As for this time, what Zelensky is saying is in line with the opinion of the people.
31:07I don't think Zelensky will make a big mistake.
31:10I think the trust in Zelensky will continue to be high in an important situation.
31:16At first, it seemed that the requests from the U.S. side were going through unilaterally.
31:23Do you have the impression that the Ukrainian side has pushed back a lot?
31:28That's right.
31:30When I saw what was going on on the street,
31:33I was told that it was a dangerous agreement for the U.S. side.
31:37But the Ukrainian negotiation team negotiated very well.
31:41It was a 50-50 agreement.
31:43Various experts have analyzed it in such a way that both sides can benefit from it.
31:49The Ukrainian people are also relieved.
31:52I don't think there are many people who understand the content of the agreement well.
31:56However, I think everyone believes in experts' opinions and government officials' opinions.
32:02On the other hand, what is the situation in Russia, including the people?
32:07This is also a result of a public opinion survey.
32:10This is the Levada Center.
32:12After all, President Putin is close to rejecting the 30-day ceasefire.
32:19However, when the people listen to this,
32:22it means that half of the people are supportive.
32:28Ms. Hirosa, what do you think about this?
32:31First of all, I think there is a problem of how much the Russian people recognize the ceasefire.
32:37And I think there is a problem of how much common understanding there is.
32:41In the first place, this special military operation
32:44I don't think the truth of the war in Ukraine is generally understood by the Russian people.
32:52In such a situation, various problems, especially recently,
32:56are coming out seriously.
32:59I think that the effect of this war on us is great.
33:04I think that the effect of this war on us is great.
33:07In addition, soldiers who are actually fighting in the front line
33:12are mainly from the local area.
33:16In the local area, the number of graves is increasing.
33:21In the meantime, the Russian people are aware that they are losing their friends.
33:28In the meantime, the Russian people are aware that they are losing their friends.
33:35However, I don't think they think the same way.
33:41What about the economic situation?
33:44The GDP of the first quarter of 2025 announced by the Russian Statistics Bureau on the 16th
33:50has increased by 1.4% and 8.5 times in a row.
33:55However, the growth rate is stagnant.
33:58The Stockholm Institute of Economic Research in Sweden
34:01says that the Russian economy is relatively stable,
34:04but only on the surface it seems to be at the bottom.
34:07The price increase is low, and the actual GDP is reported to be in decline.
34:12Ms. Hiroko, what do you think about the economic situation?
34:15As you just pointed out, the inflation rate is said to be very low.
34:23At the skin level, the inflation rate is about 14% to 15%.
34:29In fact, the number of daily necessities and food is also increasing.
34:35As a result, the number of people who have various problems in their daily lives is increasing.
34:43At the time of the war, the inflation rate was said to be about 8%.
34:48There was also a rise in the salary, which was similar to that.
34:52However, the rise in salary is not increasing now.
34:56There is no doubt that the number of people who feel the pain of life is increasing.
35:00In addition, there is a theory that the economic growth rate is still being deceived by the war economy.
35:12There are more and more people who say that the actual Russian economy is in a very bad shape.
35:23Does that have nothing to do with the ability to fight a war?
35:28Of course, it has nothing to do with it.
35:32However, we are now focusing on the war economy.
35:37I don't think it's a problem to make various things.
35:42In the first place, we can't make many tanks and armored vehicles.
35:47At the same time as making it until now, we were making it by repairing what was stored in the warehouse.
35:55However, there is a problem that there are no tanks that can be repaired and stored.
36:01It is said that there are about 500 tanks that can be made annually.
36:06Russia has lost about 2,000 tanks so far.
36:12We have to change the way we fight.
36:15I've heard that there are many parts that have been changed to man-made warfare.
36:20I think there is also a part where the economy and the war are directly related.
36:25After the commercial break, I will think about what will happen to the ceasefire.
36:30I will tell you about the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which have been held for about three years.
36:37The third theme is the whereabouts of the ceasefire.
36:40Let's look back at Trump's statement.
36:43Stop betraying Russia's attack on Ukraine by the Russian military.
36:51If the ceasefire is not respected for the 30-day unconditional ceasefire, the United States and its partners will impose further sanctions.
36:59Nothing will happen until Putin and I meet for this ceasefire.
37:05It is very important to predict the whereabouts of the ceasefire in the future.
37:10Mr. Watanabe, let's look back at your statement.
37:13First of all, I think Europe will impose sanctions on the United States.
37:18Will it be added?
37:20Yes, in the first place.
37:22What do you think?
37:24Well, depending on the situation, there is an option to add sanctions.
37:29In the end, what should we do to move Russia?
37:34Until then, President Trump was probably thinking about it.
37:39If we show that we are closer to Russia,
37:44Vladimir Putin will understand my intentions.
37:47I think he misunderstood and was disappointed.
37:50However, if he knows that it is not the case,
37:53he will move in a different direction.
37:56I don't think he is a fool to move like that.
37:59What is actually happening in the Middle East now is that
38:02until then, the Netanyahu of Israel was not a threat to the United States.
38:08What is actually happening in the Middle East now is that
38:11until then, the Netanyahu of Israel was not a threat to the United States.
38:19If he breaks the ceasefire,
38:22he will not meet with the Middle East suddenly.
38:26It's not strange to do the same thing to Russia by putting pressure on it.
38:30Therefore, whether it is good or bad,
38:33Mr. Trump's negotiation style is short-term results.
38:36If the other party does not move, he will do something completely different.
38:39Even if he does that, he will not break the ceasefire.
38:42I think it's that kind of negotiation style,
38:45so it can be thought of as moving in either direction.
38:48On the other hand, at the very end of what you said earlier,
38:51you said that if it is set, it will be ready to meet with President Putin at any time.
38:55There has been a movement for a long time to skip Ukraine
38:59and move to some big framework or agreement in the U.S.
39:05How about the U.S.?
39:08It is always included in the options.
39:11If it becomes a good shape for me, that's fine.
39:14This is a very unfortunate story for the Ukrainians and the international community,
39:19but I think it would be fine if Mr. Trump could show his results.
39:24This is the most troublesome thing for the world.
39:29Ms. Hiroshi, what do you think about Russia and the U.S. moving in this direction?
39:35Mr. Putin has not recognized Ukraine as a country in the first place,
39:43so it should not be easy for him to decide the current situation in the U.S. and Russia.
39:51Mr. Trump came out of the U.S. in favor of Russia,
39:55which was a very desirable development for him.
39:59However, as time went by, Mr. Trump's anger grew.
40:04This is still bad, so he has been dealing with various things.
40:09However, if Mr. Trump comes out more aggressively,
40:14and if the two of them can decide on the future,
40:18I think Mr. Putin will be happy to do so.
40:22For example, there was a discussion about whether or not to do it in the capital,
40:28but I think it's like a chicken and an egg,
40:33and even if Mr. Zelensky is waiting,
40:37it's like, who will come?
40:40If Mr. Trump really came, there is a possibility that he would have gone.
40:45On the contrary, Mr. Trump said that he wouldn't go because Mr. Putin didn't come.
40:50If these two people really move in the same direction,
40:53there is a possibility that there will be a big movement,
40:56but I don't think that movement is a desirable development for Ukraine.
41:02No matter how you think about it, I've been listening to various stories from earlier,
41:05and the Russian side has no intention of a stalemate.
41:08Even if there is a regular meeting at the level of the person in charge of this direct negotiation,
41:14I think it's a way to buy time,
41:17and I think it's a way to make it better for the Russian side in the election.
41:24So how do you get along with Mr. Trump?
41:29Wouldn't it be a way to use Mr. Trump to buy time?
41:34There is a possibility that he is using Mr. Trump to buy time,
41:37and as a result, the policy of patriotism,
41:41which is a concept that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump share together,
41:46is born, and the direction of the world becomes patriotism.
41:51I think this is also a desirable development for Mr. Putin.
41:56And the other thing is how serious Europe is in foretelling its whereabouts.
42:03This is the reaction of Europe's main brain in response to Russia's and Ukraine's direct negotiations.
42:10German Chancellor Merz needs to cooperate with the United States to end the war in Ukraine.
42:16We must make every effort to put the United States on our side.
42:21British Prime Minister Sturmer said,
42:23What I saw last night is further proof that President Putin is not serious about peace.
42:29EU's Founder of the EU, European Commission President von der Leyen,
42:34He is working on a new sanction measure to increase pressure because he does not want peace.
42:42French President Macron said,
42:44If Russia continues to refuse a ceasefire,
42:47European countries are adjusting their sanctions against the United States.
42:52Let's take a look at the content of the sanctions.
42:56Yes. Europe is considering a new sanction against Russia if the ceasefire ends abruptly.
43:02The EU is considering sanctions against the submarine pipeline Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, and the Mitsuyo tanker ship Kage.
43:10It is also considering a reduction in the price of oil and a strengthening of sanctions against the financial sector.
43:17The four countries of the UK, France, Germany and Poland announced that they will carry out a large-scale additional sanctions if the ceasefire is refused.
43:25The details are not clear,
43:27but President Zelensky said,
43:29Russia will face new additional sanctions in the energy and banking sectors.
43:36Mr. Hirano, President Zelensky also said this.
43:40How is the recent European movement from Ukraine?
43:46On the 10th, four countries visited Kyiv.
43:51President Zelensky and I set out to Russia on the 12th to have a non-conditional ceasefire.
43:57At that time, I made a phone call to Trump.
44:00I think he was adjusting the sanctions if Russia did not have a non-conditional ceasefire.
44:06Then Putin said,
44:08Let's meet on the 15th.
44:11I think it was a story of trying to impose sanctions on Russia if the ceasefire did not come to fruition.
44:17Today, when I opened the lid, Trump said,
44:19If Putin and I don't meet, nothing will happen.
44:21Trump said it again.
44:23I think the current situation is that it has become difficult to implement a ceasefire.
44:29Today, the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and President Zelensky's five countries called Trump.
44:35After that, Macron's statement came out.
44:38He said he was adjusting the implementation of sanctions with the United States.
44:42Originally, sanctions should not be implemented.
44:46I don't know if it's really going to come to fruition.
44:49That's Trump's inescapable response.
44:53If you talk to Putin, you'll figure it out.
44:55The current problem is to avoid putting pressure on him.
45:01Zelensky managed to persuade Trump.
45:04If Russia does not come to a ceasefire, we must put pressure on it.
45:09I think that's the goal of the Ukrainian side right now.
45:15Germany seems to be very active in supporting the Merkel administration.
45:23When you look at it from Ukraine,
45:26Do you feel more serious about Europe?
45:33I think it's done.
45:35After the peace talks, Germany has increased the possibility of sending troops from Europe.
45:41As for the long-range missile Taurus,
45:44Merkel made a positive statement before she was appointed prime minister.
45:49She's trying not to say much now, but she's probably going to provide it.
45:54From that point of view, the new administration is more active than the previous one.
46:03Mr. Watanabe, what about Europe?
46:07Even if Trump doesn't come to a ceasefire,
46:10Even if he gets off the military support,
46:12Are you ready to do it yourself?
46:16I think so.
46:17We're in a situation where we have to do that.
46:19It's Europe that's sitting on its back.
46:22We're going to try our best to get between Zelensky and Trump.
46:29What's good about that relationship is that it's all about Europe.
46:33And where Europe is strong is actually China.
46:36Russia now relies heavily on China for its economy.
46:41China is now in a trade war with the United States.
46:45We have to take good care of Europe.
46:47So I think it's important to recognize the power of Europe.
46:53Ms. Hiroshi, what do you think?
46:55Yes, the sanctions are a very important point.
46:58Europe has undergone a lot of sanctions,
47:01but there are still a lot of countries that are buying LNG.
47:05If they stop buying LNG, there will be a big blow.
47:10There are still a lot of opportunities for sanctions against Russia.
47:15There's also a lot of talk about a second sanction.
47:18It's a sanction against Russia's trade with Russia.
47:21By putting pressure on Russia,
47:24It's a very important issue to take away the ability to negotiate.
47:29It's not going well.
47:31I think it's one of the benefits of buying time for Russia.
47:37That's all for today's special.
47:39After the commercial break, we'll have market information.
48:01The market price was 19,211 yen.
48:04The end price of the New York foreign exchange market was the same as the day before.
48:08It was $1.145, 65,000 to 75,000 yen.
48:12The daily average price in Chicago is 37,995 yen.
48:16It's about 240 yen higher than the daily average Friday end price.
48:22I asked a market official about the stock price at the end of June.
48:26Mr. Kinouchi of the Taiwan Stock Exchange is expected to be 45,000 yen.
48:29It is expected that there will be a great deal of opportunity for the congress to rebuild in terms of mind data improvement and AI business growth.
48:38Joseph Kraft, a policy economic analyst, is expected to be 36,000 yen.
48:42U.S. stock prices have recovered to the level of 8 seconds before the general election.
48:47The U.S. long-term international market is expected to remain stagnant.
48:50It is expected that there will be risks, such as the hardening of tariffs, the re-heating of China-U.S. trade disputes, the shift in Takahashi's financial policy, and the issue of U.S. assets.
49:00It's quite open.
49:01Yes.
49:02Next week's schedule.
49:04Mr. Watanabe, what's the focus?
49:06It's the AEU summit on Monday, October 19.
49:11Yes.
49:12As for this, as I mentioned earlier in Ukraine,
49:16the EU and the UK have been working together to advance this issue.
49:23Another common issue they have is the trade negotiations with the U.S.
49:30The UK has managed to overcome this, but the EU remains.
49:34This is just the right time to talk about this.
49:36There is also the issue of China's influence.
49:39I think this is one of the most important movements in the world.
49:44Thank you very much, everyone.