'It's going to take a long time' for the US and China to 'reestablish some form of basic trust'
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Transcript
00:00 And for more on this story, I'm joined by geopolitical analyst Marco Vicenzino.
00:04 Thanks so much for joining us here on France 24.
00:07 So if the goal of this visit was to just reestablish the lines of communication, I guess you could
00:11 say it was a success.
00:13 I would very be careful and reluctant to use the word success in U.S.-Chinese relations
00:18 because the difficulties and the problems will continue, will persist.
00:22 It's about effective management of those problems.
00:25 So if today was a stepping stone, I would say it was an important stepping stone that
00:29 you reestablish some form of civility to the rhetoric and worldwide and diplomacy in terms
00:36 of the relations.
00:37 But the problems do remain.
00:38 They won't disappear overnight, but it's going to take a long time to reestablish some form
00:43 of basic trust to continue the communication to a level whereby they become more substantive.
00:50 And the hope would be that at the end of this year, in November of 2023, to have a face-to-face
00:55 meeting between Joe Biden and President Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum
01:02 that will be held in the U.S.
01:03 You think that meeting will happen?
01:05 It's they're working towards it.
01:07 It's a work in progress.
01:08 It's six months away.
01:10 And if they're able to establish a meeting between both of them, that's where I can see
01:14 you can a degree of positivity will be restored to the relationship.
01:19 But it's still very early stage.
01:21 What do you make of the fact that China has refused to reestablish military-to-military
01:25 communications?
01:26 What does that tell you?
01:27 It tells you how bad the relations have deteriorated between both countries.
01:32 The idea is that if you restore, if you have that direct line of communication, the key
01:37 reason is to prevent any kind of mishap or miscalculation.
01:41 And in recent times, we've seen some very close calls, very close collisions between
01:45 U.S. and Chinese aircraft and U.S. and Chinese vessels, both in the Taiwan Straits and the
01:50 South China Sea.
01:51 The slightest mishap or the slightest miscalculation can trigger a vicious downward cycle and lead
01:57 to some kind of conflict.
01:59 Where it goes, no one will know at that stage.
02:02 But the potential for real conflict is there.
02:05 You're talking about Taiwan there.
02:06 Of all the disagreements between the U.S. and China, Taiwan, human rights, technology,
02:12 Russia's war in Ukraine, which is looming the largest in your view?
02:16 Immediately, I'd say it would be Taiwan.
02:19 But obviously, there's issues of trade, U.S. tariffs, sanctions.
02:22 There's a lot to this relationship.
02:25 It's security, military, political, diplomatic, economic.
02:30 So we're looking at a very, very, very complicated, very complex relationship that needs very
02:35 careful and effective management.
02:37 Let's talk about those tariffs.
02:38 We all remember when Donald Trump was in office, he started this trade war with China.
02:42 He imposed a number of tariffs on Chinese products.
02:44 The Biden administration has left those tariffs in place.
02:47 Why do you think that is?
02:48 It's a new reality in Washington.
02:51 And Trump, in a certain way, began that new reality by saying that previous American presidents
02:57 were giving full access to the United States of Chinese products, but it wasn't being reciprocated.
03:02 It's about reciprocity in a relationship.
03:05 So when you say that they imposed tariffs, yes, they did, but it was due to lack of reciprocity.
03:12 And if there's only one thing—America remains a divided, very polarized country.
03:16 But if there is one thing that has bipartisan support, it's a tougher American stance on
03:21 China to balance that relationship.
03:24 Having said that, what about the presidential election coming up in the U.S. next year?
03:27 If a Republican takes over the White House, do you think that changes the equation at
03:31 all?
03:32 No.
03:33 This is, I think, as of when you said, when Trump started vis-a-vis China, Biden continued,
03:39 and the next U.S. president will do the same.
03:40 Like I said, this is one of the very few issues that has bipartisan support, both Republicans
03:45 and Democrats on Capitol Hill within the House and also in the Senate.
03:49 Okay, we're going to leave it there.
03:50 Geopolitical analyst Marco Vicenzino, thanks so much for coming in and joining us here
03:54 on France 24.
03:55 Thank you.
03:55 Thank you.