Will Celtics Finish Over or Under 54 Wins?

CLNS Media Sports Network

On the latest episode of Celtics Beat, Brian Barrett of the "Off the Pike" Podcast with The Ringer joins Adam and Evan to talk Celtics news and schedule. In this clip, the trio discusses the over/under for the Celtics this season based on the schedule announcement for the upcoming season.  Will Celtics Finish Over or Under 54 Wins?  FULL SHOW: https://youtu.be/QNAEbD5LElA  This segment of the Celtics Beat Podcast is brought to you by Fanduel Sportsbook, the exclusive wagering partner of the CLNS Media Network. Visit FanDuel.com/BOSTON and start earning BONUS BETS with America’s #1 Sportsbook! Because right now, when you bet on a Super Bowl Winner, you can GET BONUS BETS EVERY TIME THEY WIN IN THE REGULAR SEASON!  21+ and present in MA. First online real money wager only. $10 Deposit req. Refund issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800)-327-5050 for 24/7 support. Play it smart from the start! GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.

Transcript

00:00 Let's talk about the over under 54 and a half guys.

00:02 So I mentioned earlier in the show, I would take the under if it's probably a

00:06 stay away line anyway, but if I was to bet it, I would take the under and I want

00:10 to be very clear in saying that that's not because I believe the Celtics are

00:14 going to be a bad team or they're going to underachieve.

00:17 They're going to fall short in the playoffs.

00:18 They can't win a title any of that.

00:20 I would simply go under meaning they're going to win somewhere in the 50 to 54

00:25 range.

00:26 I still don't see sub 50 happening, but 50 in the 54 range.

00:30 Because I just think they're going to be uber conscious of who they are and

00:35 what they are and they're not going to force it.

00:37 They're not going to care about their seed.

00:39 They're not going to chase number one.

00:41 They're not going to, you know, it's home court isn't going to be an end all

00:45 be all.

00:45 They are going to look at their personnel and say, you know, Chris

00:50 Astor's needs to be managed.

00:52 We haven't even gotten into the plantar fasciitis yet.

00:55 We will.

00:55 He needs to be managed.

00:57 Al Horford needs to be managed for his age.

00:59 Malcolm Brogdon coming off the injury needs to be managed.

01:03 Rob Williams needs to be managed like there's and that doesn't mean

01:08 specifically load management.

01:09 Maybe it there's a percentage of games that guys miss and like Porzingis get

01:15 the duck boats ready if he even plays in 60 games, but we're talking about,

01:19 you know, it's more minutes being managed when I say that and I think you

01:24 need to be conscious not conservative but conscious of the Jays minutes as

01:29 well.

01:30 So this team coming in sub 55 wins is super realistic to me and I would be

01:36 more inclined Barrett to go in that direction than I would be to say

01:39 they're going to win 55 plus CLNS media network is powered by FanDuel

01:44 Sportsbook visit fanduel.com/boston and start earning bonus bets when

01:50 you bet on a Super Bowl winner.

01:52 You can get bonus bets every time they win in the regular season.

01:56 Yeah, it's good.

01:57 It's a good line.

01:58 That's why they have casinos in Vegas.

02:00 I would say I would go over.

02:02 I just think that this team is going to be way better offensively, even

02:06 though they had one of the best offenses in the league.

02:08 I think they're going to score easier right because of the fact that and I

02:11 know like the whole thing with Porzingis, but I just think about the

02:14 matchups you can use like if it was me and I look at what I'm doing a

02:18 fun Missoula, I would basically have and I chatted with Michael peanut

02:22 about this a couple of weeks ago.

02:23 I would have Jalen and Porzingis on the court together because we know

02:28 that Jalen has issues at times with his ball handling Porzingis is a

02:32 floor spacer.

02:33 He can be a role man as well.

02:34 It just makes the read so much easier for Jalen when he's handling the

02:37 ball.

02:38 So I would have those two guys on the court together and then I would

02:41 have Tatum playing the minutes with Rob where we know Tatum and Rob.

02:44 I mean look at the impact metrics with those two guys on the court

02:47 together the past couple of years.

02:48 So I think when you're talking about the non-tata minutes that have been

02:52 an issue over the past couple of years.

02:54 This should be your best chance to actually have those be good and you

02:58 look at Porzingis last year.

03:00 He was through the roof in the impact metrics and it's not like he had a

03:02 lot of good teammates when he was playing with the Washington Wizards,

03:06 right?

03:06 So I just think that from and this is a situation that we ask questions

03:11 about during the playoffs for the past years.

03:14 What are they doing with Tatum is off the court.

03:16 I think that Joe Mazzola and that coaching staff should be able to come

03:19 up with lineups that really you can play actually play well with Tatum's

03:24 off the court.

03:25 And I actually think you can even keep Derek White on the court with

03:28 Jalen and Porzingis as well because what we've seen with Tatum, it really

03:31 doesn't matter who plays with them.

03:32 Like he's always when he's on the court.

03:34 They're always going to have a good offensive rating.

03:36 If you have Rob out there with him and I'd like him to play more minutes

03:40 with Pritchard to this season.

03:41 I it's weird like two years ago.

03:43 There are numbers with Pritchard on the court.

03:45 They actually played at a slower pace, which I thought was really weird, but

03:49 his most used lineups.

03:50 He had Al Horford in there and a second most used lineups.

03:54 He had Daniel Tyson there like Pritchard.

03:55 One of the things I when I watch him, I'm like it doesn't match up with the

03:58 numbers because he's always pushing the basketball, right?

04:01 So I think with Pritchard out there too, you can play at a faster pace.

04:03 So that's why I'd go over just because I think that they're going to get

04:06 back a they're going to get back to their defensive identity, even though

04:09 smart is out of the equation that's certainly needs to be emphasized more

04:13 despite them being number two in the league.

04:15 We saw in the playoffs.

04:15 They certainly did not play like the number two defense in the league, but

04:19 the other portion of it.

04:19 I think offensively they are more talented from a personnel perspective,

04:24 even if they have less rotate capable rotation players.

04:28 They have more offensive firepower.

04:30 Yeah, the lack of this though the lack of talent in that conference like a lot

04:36 of talent moved the other conference like what teams really scared.

04:39 I mean, obviously there's schedule losses and what in there.

04:42 You're not going to get that.

04:43 Well, you're also not only playing the East.

04:45 I mean you are seeing the West, but you're playing the majority of your games

04:49 against your conference, right?

04:50 You're playing the majority of your games against a division that I mean,

04:54 look the Knicks are the Knicks gave this Alex all they can handle last year.

04:58 That's not saying that they're the Knicks are a bad opponent.

05:01 The Knicks in the suffix.

05:02 I think are in two different tiers, right?

05:05 The Nets are kind of a wild card in here.

05:08 Like I like a lot of the guys in their team, but does it make a lot of sense?

05:12 I mean the Raptors are.

05:15 Come on, like their own divisions.

05:17 Not great.

05:18 If you go to the rest of the conference, it's not tremendous.

05:20 Like they're going to get a lot of easy wins potentially if they just stay healthy.

05:25 Never mind that look at what about the last year makes you think Miami is going to go crazy

05:29 for the number one seed this year?

05:32 Not going to happen.

05:34 Look at the Bucks.

05:35 Yeah, they could be tougher though.

05:37 Just I mean because the whole Lillard things out there,

05:39 but I'm with you for the most part.

05:40 I agree with what you're saying.

05:41 The Bucks is as much as we care about the Celtics health problems,

05:44 which is definitely something they should be aware of.

05:45 The Bucks have also health problems like Brooke Lopez is super old.

05:48 Chris Middleton hasn't looked the same since that injury.

05:51 I mean, I like Drew Holiday,

05:53 but a lot of times Drew Holiday goes for like five for 17 from the floor.

05:57 Like I don't think it's like a super tough conference for Boston to rack up wins in.

06:03 I think the knowing the injury thing.

06:05 Yeah, sure.

06:06 They're going to manage guys down the stretch,

06:08 but I still think that over is possible pending some injury look and.

06:13 Of course it's possible.

06:14 I just don't you know, it's the one thing I didn't say before but implied.

06:18 I don't think that they're definitely to to Brian's point.

06:22 They are absolutely more top-heavy than they were last year.

06:25 There was more talent, you know in the operational of this team.

06:28 I I'm concerned.

06:30 They're not as deep as they were last year for when injuries do happen

06:33 and they're going to happen.

06:35 Yeah, the one thing that they do benefit from is two of their best three players.

06:41 I guess two of their best four players are never hurt

06:44 and knock on wood that that doesn't happen but Tatum I'd say for you.

06:48 Yeah. Well you say who you put else in there Jalen Jalen white Tatum.

06:53 Yeah, I was going to say white and Tatum like Jalen's had his issues,

06:56 but you're right for the most part. He stays healthy.

06:58 But Tatum we mentioned earlier the Charlotte thing like he he plays in every game

07:02 and Derek White literally plays in every game.

07:04 He played in 82 games last season.

07:06 He legitimately plays in every game.

07:09 So yeah, when you have those two guys are going to play most of the games Derek White.

07:13 I'm sure is going to want to do it again where he plays every game next season.

07:17 I think it's just really beneficial.

07:18 And the other thing I would say too is one of the things last year

07:22 that they went to not as much as I would have liked them to go to

07:27 and part of that is because Marcus smart was on the team

07:30 and this is not me taking a shot at Marcus,

07:32 but the numbers with Derek White at the point guard position last season

07:35 when he actually played point guard via cleaning the glass 21% of his minutes only 21%.

07:41 So about a fifth of his minutes the Celtics and in those minutes 121.9 offensive rating 93rd percentile

07:48 106.2 defensive rating 96 percentile plus 15.7 net rating 99th percentile

07:56 because he's the smallest guy in the court,

07:58 but he's also an all NBA defender.

08:00 You have these big wings around him.

08:02 You can play double big.

08:04 So just getting more Derek White minutes in terms of at the point guard position

08:07 and to something we mentioned earlier with Marcus smart everybody put the blame on him.

08:11 The one thing I will say is Derek White.

08:13 I mean we had these conversations.

08:15 He should have got more fourth quarter minutes.

08:17 There's no reason that you had both Marcus smart

08:20 and Brogdon average more fourth quarter minutes than Derek White last season.

08:25 He was unequivocally the Celtics third best player.

08:28 You could make an argument from an impact metric standpoint.

08:30 He was their second best player.

08:32 He should have been on the court in the fourth quarter.

08:34 So I think having that lineup out there with white and with Tatum

08:37 and with Brown at the end of these games,

08:39 they're going to be much better closing out games

08:41 and I know their record was fine in clutch games last season,

08:44 but they're going to be better when it comes to execution late in games.

08:48 CLNS media network is powered by FanDuel sportsbook visit

08:52 Fanduel.com/Boston and start earning bonus bets when you bet on a Super Bowl winner.

08:58 You can get bonus bets every time they win in the regular season.

09:04 [Music]

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