As Joe St. George explains, when the general election comes more into focus something unique in 2024 appears to be happening: a historically low number of actual swing states.
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00:00 >> Well, despite not showing up for the first GOP debate and getting his mugshot taken,
00:04 an organization that averages all the major polls still has former President Donald Trump
00:09 up around 40 points nationally in the race for the Republican nomination.
00:13 >> But as Joe St. George explains, when the general election comes more into focus, something
00:17 unique in 2024 appears to be happening, an historically low number of actual swing states.
00:24 >> With election coverage, we can buy fancy touchscreens and build amazing graphics.
00:29 But at the end of the day, elections are about coloring in a map.
00:33 Some states have been colored red for years, others blue for decades.
00:37 But in every election, there are toss up states colored purple or yellow to signal that they
00:42 can go any party's way.
00:44 But something seems to be happening in our country's politics.
00:47 Fewer states being classified by experts as being true toss ups.
00:52 In fact, 2024 may have the fewest toss up states in recent political history.
00:57 >> A lot of this is pretty set in stone.
01:00 >> Amy Walter has been attempting to predict elections for more than 25 years.
01:04 She runs the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes races from coast to coast.
01:09 Recently, she had an observation.
01:11 In 1995, the Cook Political Report listed 12 states as toss ups, even California was
01:17 included.
01:18 Nearly 30 years later, that same report is for now only listing these four states as
01:24 true toss ups going into 2024.
01:27 Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
01:30 >> If you go back in the entirety of pretty much the 20th century, we've never had a map
01:37 as a determinative as this electoral map is today.
01:42 >> Take for instance, Florida.
01:44 For years, many analysts would start coloring it yellow without a second thought.
01:47 This presidential election, it begins as a soft shade of red after voting for Republicans,
01:52 for president, for governor, for multiple election cycles.
01:55 The same is true for Ohio.
01:57 Democrats, meanwhile, in recent years have gained ground in states like Virginia, Michigan,
02:01 and Colorado.
02:03 Those states begin the 2024 campaign colored a light shade of blue.
02:07 >> We have become a much more polarized country where people have put on their red and blue
02:14 jerseys, and they don't take them off.
02:18 >> If you live in a swing state, this all means that the number of commercials, door
02:22 knocks, and phone calls will be greater than they have been in recent elections.
02:25 And if your state has lost swing state status, don't expect as many presidential visits.
02:30 Of course, Democrats and Republicans will attempt to prove DC analysts wrong and create
02:35 more toss up states between now and this time next year, especially in places where there
02:40 are more competitive congressional races.
02:42 >> The campaigns are spending their money in fewer places.
02:44 >> Joe St. George, Scripps News, Washington.