Trump remains 'prohibitive favorite to get Republican nomination, it would take a lot to unseat him'
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Transcript
00:00 In other news, Donald Trump is expected to appear in a New York court later on today
00:05 at the opening of a civil fraud trial which could leave his business empire in jeopardy.
00:11 Trump, his two adult sons and the Trump organisation are accused of inflating the value of their
00:17 properties by more than two billion US dollars.
00:20 However, Trump is still out campaigning for re-election and was visiting the state of
00:25 Iowa over the weekend.
00:28 To talk a little more then about this latest trial of Donald Trump, I'm joined now by Thomas
00:34 Gifft.
00:35 He's the director of the Centre of US Politics at University College London.
00:39 He joins us live from there.
00:40 Thank you very much indeed, sir, for talking to us on France 24.
00:44 Thanks for having me.
00:45 So Donald Trump said yesterday that he is planning to attend the start of this trial
00:50 today.
00:51 He doesn't have to go.
00:52 He didn't attend previous civil cases.
00:54 So why do you think he's choosing to attend this one?
00:58 Well that's a really good question.
01:00 And you know, I think one of the main reasons is that he wants to make a show of it, like
01:04 he wants to make a show of all of his other indictments.
01:07 Of course, this case is a little bit different than the criminal charges that he's facing,
01:11 but he still views it as a political opportunity to present it as a witch hunt, a political
01:18 vendetta.
01:19 This is obviously being brought by a New York attorney general who is a Democrat.
01:24 And so I think he views this as an opportunity to keep his name in the news and to present
01:30 himself again as the victim.
01:33 Donald Trump, of course, faces a litany of legal cases at the moment.
01:37 What's your sense as to how serious this one is?
01:40 Well, you know, the real difference is that this is a civil trial and not a criminal trial.
01:46 So at most, Donald Trump would be fined upwards of $250 million and potentially banned from
01:53 running a business in New York.
01:55 Those would be the consequences here, whereas in many of the other cases, you know, he could
01:59 potentially face jail time.
02:01 So that's a significant difference.
02:04 You know, Donald Trump, I think, has downplayed these particular charges, and I think that
02:08 they are serious, certainly, but they probably pale relative to the Department of Justice
02:15 cases that are currently being brought over January 6th and election rigging.
02:21 Those entail much more serious charges and potentially serious consequences.
02:27 Nonetheless, though, Trump could be forced in this case to give up sort of prized infamous
02:32 properties of his in New York, like Trump Tower.
02:36 How big a blow do you think that might be to sort of brand Trump?
02:40 Well, I think that that really is the risk for Donald Trump here, both the fact that
02:46 he could potentially be forced to give up some of these assets.
02:50 But I think that this case also really pulls up the curtain, you know, and will expose
02:55 Donald Trump's, you know, assets, which is, of course, a big part of the case that he
03:01 makes for why he should be president, that he's such a savvy businessman and so on.
03:07 You know, he once said, "I'd look better if I'm worth $10 billion than if I'm worth $4
03:11 billion."
03:12 And the charges here really go to inflating assets, both in order to display a public
03:19 persona that he's worth more than he is, and also to secure these favourable loans from
03:24 banks.
03:25 So, I think any information that we get regarding his finances that suggests that he isn't quite
03:31 the business person that he's always suggested he is, you know, that could lead to a hit
03:38 of his reputation.
03:39 And as this case gets underway and these other sort of criminal as well as civil cases continue
03:44 as well, what does the latest polling tell us in the United States about how much support
03:50 Donald Trump has?
03:51 He's still clearly sort of out there de facto campaigning, being in Iowa over the weekend.
03:55 If anything, Donald Trump's support has improved over the last several weeks and the last several
04:01 months, and he just holds an absolutely commanding lead in the Republican primaries, upwards
04:06 of 40 percentage points.
04:08 And so, when you look at some of his closest competitors, Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley,
04:13 most of them are struggling to stay in the high single digits.
04:17 And so, I think right now you have to say that Donald Trump is the prohibited favourite
04:21 to get the Republican nomination.
04:22 It would take a lot to unseat him as the frontrunner.
04:26 We're getting closer and closer to those critical Iowa caucuses.
04:29 If he's able to win there and he's able to win in New Hampshire, I think he's going to
04:34 run the table.
04:35 So, right now, it's really hard to see anything but a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden rematch
04:41 in 2024.
04:42 Thomas Giff talking to us there from University College London.
04:47 Thank you very much indeed, sir, for your time and your analysis today.
04:50 Thank you.