• 2 years ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.

We take a look at the weekend’s exceptional weather with the intense rain for Scotland and heat in the south. Also look ahead to the change to something markedly colder by the weekend with the potential for some snow. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.

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Transcript
00:00 Hello, very good day to you and welcome to the latest deep dive. I'm Alex Burkill, Met
00:05 Office Meteorologist and thank you for joining me. I'm coming to you here from Met Office
00:10 HQ in Exeter and we are going to take this little deep dive, an in-depth look into what
00:16 the weather's been doing and what it's going to do over the next few days. Thank you as
00:20 always for joining me. Remember, if you do like the content that we're putting out across
00:25 our YouTube channel, you can hit the subscribe button. If you've enjoyed what I've been talking
00:30 about today, then make sure you hit the like button and don't forget to share it. Share
00:35 it with any budding meteorologists, any fellow Met heads you might know who might enjoy this
00:39 content as well. Also, I will be having a look at the comments afterwards, so do write
00:45 a comment to me if there's any constructive feedback, anything you'd like to see more
00:49 of in these deep dives, anything that you really appreciated me going through or anything
00:54 that Aidan and Alex have gone through in the past that you'd like to see more of. Do leave
00:58 a comment and I will be looking at them later on.
01:02 Before I start, I will be looking as we go ahead at what's to come, but I think it's
01:07 worth having a look at what has already happened over the last few days. You'll well be aware
01:12 that there was some pretty extreme weather over the weekend, so let's start off looking
01:16 at that. First of all, behind me I have the satellite and radar imagery from over the
01:22 weekend and if I actually start off and zoom into the UK a little bit just so it's a little
01:27 bit closer, a little bit more detail here, but what you can see, and this is later on
01:32 Saturday, I'm actually going to take that back to earlier on in the day, and yes, Saturday
01:37 as we expected was a really wet day across Scotland. We had this front that invigorated,
01:43 had a bit more energy behind it as it just stalled and lingered across Scotland as we
01:48 went through Saturday into Sunday. The forecast did change a little bit as we got nearer the
01:53 time. The heaviest rain got pushed back a little bit, so it went more Saturday into
01:57 Sunday than we were saying this time last week perhaps, but we did warn people, we did
02:03 eventually issue some amber warnings because there was going to be some severe disruption
02:07 and you probably have seen some of the footage, some of the videos, some of the photos showing
02:12 the heavy flooding across parts of Scotland, which was due to this intense rain. Official
02:16 gauges recorded up to 160 millimetres, but some private weather stations recorded close
02:22 to 200 millimetres, so it really was a very, very wet picture. A very different story though
02:28 across the south. If we just run through the last few days, so if we go through Saturday
02:34 and then into Sunday, whilst there was still some heavy rain across parts of Scotland,
02:38 you can really see the high pressure across Europe that was dominating the picture across
02:43 southern areas and that's why we had a lot of fine settled sunny weather here. Yes, there
02:48 was some mist and fog around first thing, but by day there was plenty of sunshine and
02:52 that continued well into Monday and even into today to be honest as we go through Tuesday.
02:58 So here's Monday and you can see lots of fine settled weather through the night and then
03:02 into Tuesday we've also got plenty of fine settled weather, perhaps the best of this
03:07 in the southeast, but it wasn't just the sunshine that we had, we had that very warm air. We've
03:11 still got some very warm air across the south. I'll talk about that in a second. The other
03:16 thing then, whilst we're on the chart for Tuesday, you can already see some heavy rain
03:20 that started to push into parts of Scotland. Again, we do have a warning out for this.
03:25 That's because although the rainfall totals aren't especially high, we're looking at 40,
03:30 50 millimetres, that kind of thing, because it's coming so close after the intense rain,
03:35 those heavy downpours that we saw over the weekend, we could see some further issues.
03:39 So individually on its own, this event wouldn't be particularly noteworthy, but because of
03:44 the heavy rain that it's following on from, that's why we do have that warning in force.
03:49 So let's look back at what happened over the weekend in a bit more detail. And starting
03:56 off, let's have a look at our temperatures. So I mentioned we had some extreme warmth
04:01 across the south and we still do at the moment. And in fact, we have had three consecutive
04:07 days already when we've had temperatures exceed 25 Celsius. In October, the last time that
04:13 happened was 2011. So a long time ago for us to have three consecutive days where temperatures
04:19 have exceeded 25. On Saturday, it was 25.4 in Manston was the highest. On Sunday, it
04:25 was 25.8 at Kew Gardens. And on Monday, it was 26.1 at East Manning. Now, at time of
04:30 recording, we have a couple of sites across south-east England, which are at 24.9. Not
04:36 quite exceeded that 25 Celsius, but I am expecting them to just about get above 25 Celsius, perhaps
04:43 not quite as high as the 26.1 we saw on Monday. But nonetheless, I do think this is going
04:48 to be the fourth consecutive day where we will see temperatures exceeding 25 Celsius.
04:54 And I think we have to go back to 1959 for the last time that we've had a period of four
04:58 or more days above 25 Celsius in October. So it is unusually warm. And the fact that
05:05 we've had a warm spell now has had a knock-on effect on averages if we look firstly at the
05:10 whole month. So you may have seen a similar chart to this before if you watch our deep
05:14 dives quite regularly. What this chart shows is mean average temperature as we've gone
05:22 so far through October. The blue line is for October 2023, and the orange shading shows
05:28 how far above average we are for the time of year. And this black line shows the average
05:33 based on the 1991 to 2020 field. The orange line shows the warmest on record. The blue
05:39 line shows the coldest on record, but we're way beyond that. And what you can see is as
05:44 we've gone through the start of month, yes, it was significantly warmer than average. But
05:48 as we've gone through the last few days, we've got so far above average that we're actually
05:53 currently at this stage in October. So this is data up to and including the 9th of October.
06:00 We are warmer than we have been at any point in the past. So this is the warmest first
06:05 9 days of October for the UK on record when we look at mean temperature, which is pretty
06:11 extreme. It's also, if we looked at autumn, the warmest start to autumn, so the first
06:16 39 days of autumn on record. But if we also look at the same chart, but this time looking
06:23 for the whole year so far, you can see again, this black line is very, it's far above average.
06:30 You can see we've been above average for the whole year when you take in the accumulative
06:34 effect. And you can see that as we have come with this recent very warm spell across southern
06:41 parts of the UK, it's led to us getting very close to the all time record. The warmest
06:45 year on record was last year, 2022. And it looks like we're second at the moment at this
06:51 stage in the year. And we're not really that far off that all time record. Now, temperatures
06:57 are going to plummet. I'll come on to that in a second. We're going to get some cold
07:00 weather coming through. So we're going to see particularly that October chart is going
07:04 to be a very different picture if we look at it again this time next week. But for the
07:08 time being at this stage in October, it's the warmest that it ever has been on record.
07:13 And this time in autumn as well. And we're very close when we look at the whole year
07:17 as well. But the other thing then to look at is that rainfall. So we had some extreme
07:23 warmth in the south and still do. But as I've already discussed, we had some very heavy
07:28 rain across parts of the south. And that, as well as the temperatures, led to quite
07:32 a north-south split when we look at our averages. This map shows the average rainfall-- sorry,
07:37 shows the rainfall observed across the UK in the first nine days of October and compares
07:43 it to the average. Now, it's worth noting this map compares the first nine days of October
07:48 2023 with the average for the whole month. As a result, there are lots of browns because
07:53 at this stage, you'd expect around 29% of the rainfall. And so because it's comparing
08:00 what's happened so far this October with the average for the whole month, it is quite widely
08:05 very dry compared to average. In the south-southeast, unsurprisingly, there's barely been any rain
08:10 in some places. So it's very dry here. But why I'm showing you this is because you can
08:15 see a few blues across parts of Scotland. Some parts of Scotland-- Dundee, for example--
08:20 have already had more than their average rainfall for the whole month in just the first eight,
08:26 nine days. To be honest, Monday wasn't a really wet day for many places. So it really was
08:31 up to and including the weekend that we saw that heavy rain. So some places have already
08:36 seen more than their average monthly rainfall in just the first eight days of the month.
08:43 We can also look at that in a different way if we use these charts. And they're similar
08:47 to the one that I showed you just now with temperature. So it's cumulative for the whole
08:52 month as we go through, but this time showing rainfall across southern England. And this
08:56 is for the first nine days. And what you can see is it's been exceptionally dry. That's
09:00 no surprise. We've had high pressure dominating. And there's barely been any rain. In fact,
09:05 some places-- East Sussex, West Sussex, Kent-- they've had less than 1% of their average
09:10 October rainfall in the first nine days of the month. It's been exceptionally dry here,
09:16 but a very different story further north. If we look at the same chart, but this time
09:19 for Scotland, you can see we're close to the all-time record for this stage in October
09:25 for the highest amount of rain that we've currently seen. It's well above average for
09:29 this stage in the month. Like I said, some places have already seen more than their average
09:33 for the whole month, but well above average for this stage in the month and very close
09:38 to, not quite touching the record for the wettest point at this stage in October, but
09:44 really not that far off.
09:47 But what else do I have to show you? So now we need to look ahead. I've gone through what's
09:53 happened so far over the last few days, so the really wet weather and that very warm
09:58 weather. But let's have a look ahead to what we've got coming up. So starting off looking
10:02 at the pressure sequence. And if we run through, and at the moment we have a double frontal
10:06 structure across the north of the UK, and it's this that's particularly the second front,
10:11 which is bringing some heavy rain across parts of Scotland. In fact, I'm going to get rid
10:14 of the jet stream, put rainfall on instead. And I might even zoom into the UK just to
10:19 make this a little bit clearer.
10:22 And what you can see as we go through, if I just run it through, here we go. If we run
10:29 through, so that whole frontal system is pushing its way southwards. So we're going to see
10:32 some rain pushing into parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England as we go through tonight,
10:36 staying largely dry across the south until, if I just pause it here, what we have is this
10:43 front that's pushing its way southwards across parts of Scotland, then makes its way into
10:47 more central parts of the UK. And then we get a plume, another area of forcing coming
10:52 up from the southwest, and they interact. And that's why we're going to see some pretty
10:56 heavy rainfall totals. If I get rid of the fronts just for a second and play that through,
11:02 we're going to see some high rainfall totals building up initially across Wales. But then
11:06 as we go through the rest of the Wednesday, that's all going to filter its way eastwards.
11:10 And so we're going to see some further heavy rain across central southern parts of the
11:13 UK. If I just pause it there, this is midnight Thursday morning, so Wednesday night. And
11:18 you can see we're going to have some rain across more southern areas of the UK. A real
11:22 difference to what we had over the weekend, what we've had so far this month, to be honest,
11:28 where it's been so largely dry. In terms of totals that we are expecting, and here's an
11:33 interesting chart. This is a comparison between different models. So on the left-hand side,
11:38 we have the Met Office Global model. In the middle, we have the European Centre ECMWF.
11:43 And on the right-hand side, we have GFS, the American model. And what these charts are
11:47 showing are forecast 24-hour rainfall accumulations for this coming Wednesday, so tomorrow. And
11:54 what you can see is the Met Office model is highlighting some pretty high rainfall totals
11:59 across parts of Wales, into the Midlands, and even towards East Anglia as well. Interestingly,
12:04 ECMWF has a similar position a little bit further north with the heaviest rain perhaps
12:10 and not quite getting as high totals. Meanwhile, GFS is a little bit further south, if anything,
12:16 compared to two, but relatively good agreement in the fact that it's this central slice of
12:20 the UK that's likely to see the heaviest rain. Now, some of these totals, 40, 50 millimeters,
12:26 they're fairly similar to the rain that's happening over Scotland as we go through today,
12:30 through Tuesday. But because it's coming off the back of a very dry spell in the south,
12:35 a very different story for Scotland where it's coming off the back of a very wet period,
12:40 we're not really expecting the significant impacts in this area, even though it is going
12:45 to be a wet picture, a very wet day as we go through Wednesday, it shouldn't really
12:49 cause too many impacts because we've had so much dry weather recently. So all the catchments
12:53 everywhere should cope with it relatively well. But going back to then the pressure
12:59 pattern or not as the case is, but I'll put the pressure bars back on. And if we just
13:07 run through, let's go back to Wednesday. So then that frontal system tries to clear its
13:12 way southwards as we go through later Wednesday into Thursday. We'll see some outbreaks of
13:17 rain across southern areas as we go through Thursday, but a lot of dry weather too. And
13:22 then we get hit by two separate features. Another area of forcing comes up from the
13:27 south and brings some heavy rain to southern areas as we go towards the end of the week.
13:32 And also, if I just run through a little bit further, we get an area of low pressure towards
13:36 the north, and that's going to bring some wet and windy weather here. Doesn't look as
13:40 heavy as the rain across more southern parts, but we are likely to see a pretty messy picture
13:47 as we go through Friday and then that all clears through as we go into Saturday. So
13:53 then just a quick look at what we can expect on Friday. And as I mentioned, there's some
13:57 heavy rainfall across southern parts because of that system coming up from the southwest.
14:02 And this is a similar chart to the one I just showed you for Wednesday. But this time, instead
14:07 of looking at 24-hour rainfall totals, we're actually looking at 36-hour rainfall totals
14:11 from midday GMT on Thursday all the way to the end of Friday. And again, it's showing
14:17 – well, this time, unsurprisingly, because it's slightly further ahead, there's less
14:22 alignment between these models. And so, the Matt Office model is highlighting some pretty
14:26 intense rain, almost 60mm in some parts of the West Country, up in towards the Midlands,
14:31 towards East Anglia, that's where we've got the heaviest rain. ECMWF wants to have
14:36 the worst of the rain a little bit further north, so more affecting Wales. And as does
14:40 GFS, that takes it all a little bit further north as well. So, whilst the Matt Office
14:45 model usually is pretty strong and we often stick with it, I think at the moment, the
14:51 general agreement is that the worst of the rain is likely to be a little bit further
14:55 north than the Matt Office model, the one on the left wants it to be. So, probably going
15:00 to be more of an issue for Wales perhaps than southwest England. But we do need to keep
15:05 an eye on this. We will be updating things. We may need some warnings because we've got
15:09 that wet weather as we go through Wednesday and then another spell of wet weather as we
15:13 go through Friday. We may need to be looking at some warnings because of the heavy rain.
15:17 We could start to see some impacts there. But what – if I just go back to the forecast
15:24 then, and what I wanted to continue to show because this is the real change coming through
15:29 is as we go through Friday then, we see later that front that brought the heavy rain or
15:35 brings the heavy rain on Friday does clear away towards the south. And then we're under
15:40 the influence of this low pressure. It's going to bring some strong winds across northern
15:44 areas, particularly Scotland, so some gales there likely. But the bigger thing that I
15:48 think is worth noting is the wind direction that we're going to get across the UK. It's
15:53 a cold Arctic air and that's really going to lead to a real drop in our temperatures.
15:58 It's going to turn much colder as we go through into the weekend and it's really going to
16:03 feel colder too. Notice there will be some showers pushing through on this northerly
16:08 wind as well. There's an occlusion coming through so that will bring some showery rain
16:12 and some sleet or snows likely. With some cold air coming through I'd expect some sleet
16:17 or snow above higher ground of Scotland. We're talking 600 metres or so. Could be a little
16:21 bit lower than that across the far north of Scotland. And even to some lower levels we
16:26 could see some wet hail perhaps, so something a little bit wintry. That's mainly for Scotland.
16:30 I'm not really expecting the wintriness to push as far south as England just yet. But
16:37 what we will notice is a real change to much colder than it has been, especially compared
16:41 to over the weekend. Now one way that I can show you that is if we look at our maximum
16:47 temperatures. And I'm just going to pick some random places. Let's start off down in the
16:52 south. And what you can see, and if we go to East Anglia at the moment where temperatures
16:57 are still low, possibly mid-20s today. And then they are dipping down as we go through
17:02 Thursday. That's when the wet picture, we've got the heavy rain coming through on Friday
17:07 as well. So we're starting to see the change. But notice by the weekend, by Sunday, I've
17:11 moved over somewhere. Let's go back to over here. By Sunday we're into single figures.
17:19 These are our daytime highs. It possibly won't be quite as chilly as that, but it is going
17:23 to be markedly less, well, markedly colder than it has been of late. If you think over
17:28 the weekend just gone, we had highs of 24, 25, even 26 Celsius, whereas this coming weekend
17:35 the similar areas are only going to be just about scraping into double figures. It's going
17:39 to be 10 to 12 degrees colder this coming weekend than it was last weekend for some
17:44 places. So a real colder feel to things. We're kind of going from summer to winter in just
17:49 one week. The caveat to that worth noting, these temperatures aren't hugely below average
17:55 for the time of year, but we're just going from so far above to a little bit below average
17:59 for October. Also, if we look across Scotland, you can see the drop in temperatures is happening
18:04 that much quicker. So it's still quite warm. If we pick the central belt, for example,
18:09 quite relatively warm temperatures above average for the time of year through Tuesday, but
18:13 then turning colder from Wednesday onwards and a gradual drop in our temperatures as
18:17 that cold Arctic air continues to plunge its way in as we go through towards the weekend,
18:23 Saturday, Sunday in particular, that's when we're going to get our lowest temperatures
18:27 at the moment. I also want to show you the same idea, but with our minimum temperatures.
18:32 If I pick somewhere in Scotland, perhaps let's try and head as close to somewhere like Braemar
18:37 as I can, perhaps. Here we go. And you can see, yes, it's a mild night for well, so to
18:44 start off the day through Tuesday, but you can see why have I clicked the screen again?
18:49 Here we go. I've lost my negative failure, which I just want to get back. Here we go.
18:54 And you can see as we go through the weekend, minimum temperatures are also dropping off.
19:00 And so by the time that we get to the weekend, I think Saturday night into Sunday, Sunday
19:04 night into Monday as well, likely to be very cold. That's when we're likely to see temperatures
19:09 several degrees below freezing Saturday night, Sunday night. We could be looking at lows
19:13 around minus three, minus four Celsius. So pretty widespread frost. I think even this
19:19 coming night, Wednesday night, Thursday night, we're likely to have some cold nights across
19:22 northern areas. But that coldness or that cold won't have spread as far south until
19:27 we get towards the end of the week and the weekend. So a real drop in temperatures spreading
19:32 from that north from the north as that cold Arctic air plunges its way southwards as we
19:37 go through this week. Then if we go back to I don't think. Oh, then the other thing that
19:45 I wanted to just start back to with regards to a rainfall for Friday, like I mentioned
19:50 that we may be looking at some warning. So I just wanted to highlight the areas of greatest
19:55 concern because there are two kind of features with regards to the area of rain. So in this
20:00 area, the green area, the bigger area across much of central southern England and Wales,
20:06 that's where we're looking at five to 20 millimeters quite widely. So it is going to be a pretty
20:10 wet picture. Then, as I highlighted earlier, the greatest cause for concern is parts of
20:14 Wales, more East Anglia and southern parts of the Midlands and into northern parts of
20:19 West Country. That's where we have the greatest chance of the highest totals building up.
20:23 So 30 to 50 millimeters and six to nine hours, possibly even a bit more than that, 60 to
20:29 70. But I wanted to highlight just this black dashed hatched shaded area across more southern
20:35 counties. And it's in this area where there's actually the risk of some convection. So with
20:40 that, we have the risk of some intense showers building up. So intense downpours are possible.
20:46 So instead of the 30 to 50 over six to nine hours or 60 to 70 over like the whole day,
20:52 we're looking at the risk of 20 to 30 and just one to two hours. So it's intense rain
20:56 sure to lift, but it could be heavier when it comes. And with that, there's the risk
21:01 of thunder. You could throw some hail in there as well. It's not out of the question. So
21:06 what we have then across much of southern England into central England and Wales, it
21:10 is looking like it's on Friday. It's going to be a wet picture. The heaviest rains in
21:15 this blue area in terms of the highest totals at the end of the day. But in terms of the
21:20 most intense rain, there's the risk of those heavy downpours in these more southern counties,
21:25 that black shaded area as well. So I think I've covered the forecast for this week and
21:33 into the weekend. But if I just run through all the way to the end of the pattern, and
21:37 if we go through Saturday into Sunday, and what you can see is we get a bit of high pressure
21:44 building in. And so although we're going to have a lot of cold weather, and if I put rainfall
21:49 back on and get rid of the jet stream, although it is going to be quite cold, actually, the
21:54 forecast for this weekend is actually going to be largely dry. Yes, there'll be some showers
21:59 coming through, but most of the worst of the rain will really be toppling over the top
22:03 of that high pressure. And so for many, it's actually going to be largely dry, fine, crisp
22:09 almost for some of us with the risk of some frost, particularly for those northern areas.
22:13 And that high pressure continues as we go through into the beginning of next week. And
22:17 it's likely to dominate really, at least for the start of the week. And if I show you that
22:21 now, and if we get up this chart, and now this is ECMWF data looking at the forecast
22:29 for next week. On the right hand side, I have the model runs for next week still, but the
22:35 model runs that were taken on Saturday. In the middle, I have the model runs that were
22:38 taken on Sunday, and the model run on the left hand side, the model runs taken yesterday
22:43 on Monday, and they show quite a change in the story. On Saturday, when we were looking
22:48 at next week, now these show the anomaly compared to average for the time of year. And on the
22:54 top, we have our anomaly compared to the pressure anomaly. And in the bottom, we have our temperature
22:59 anomaly. And the greens indicate that low pressure, particularly towards the northwest
23:04 of the UK, when we use the Saturday model runs from ECMWF, showed that low pressure
23:10 was more likely or lower than average pressure was more likely, particularly towards the
23:13 northwest of the UK. So that would have brought some unsettled weather, southwesterlies. As
23:18 a result, when you look at the temperature anomaly, it looked like temperatures were
23:22 going to be a bit above average for the time of year. But as we've gone through Sunday's
23:26 model runs, starting to see a bit of a change. And then Monday's model run, the most recent,
23:33 was actually a huge change in story. By this point, this is indicating that we're going
23:38 to have higher than average pressure somewhere towards the east northeast of the UK as we
23:43 go through the whole of next week. I just showed you that we are likely to have high
23:46 pressure coming across as we go through this coming weekend. And then that's likely to
23:51 drift a little bit further east northeastwards towards Scandinavia as we go into next week.
23:55 So high pressure towards the northeast of the UK dominating, with the winds then coming
24:00 around this. And so we'll get a bit of a southeasterly, but it's going to be quite a chilly southeasterly
24:05 because of this cold air to the east northeast of the UK. As a result, although there could
24:11 be quite a bit of fine weather around because we should still be largely under the influence
24:15 of that high pressure, it is going to be quite chilly still as we go through next week. So
24:20 somewhat of a continuation of the picture that we'll have going into this weekend. I
24:24 think the cold weather will subside as we go through next week. But I just wanted to
24:29 highlight this to show the huge change in story from the low pressure dominating, warmer
24:35 than average, unsettled weather that ECMWF was highlighting just a few days ago, to now
24:41 going with the idea that high pressure is likely to still be in control, largely as
24:46 we look at the week as a whole. And with that, temperatures likely to remain a little bit
24:51 below average for the time of year. So that's a little look at what we can expect as we
24:58 go into next week. So I am expecting the high pressure to at least linger across the UK
25:03 through the first few days. With that, then the cold weather continues at least Monday,
25:07 Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday, before we'll see the high drifting away and becoming less
25:11 dominant. And that does allow then for something perhaps a bit more changeable and for something
25:16 milder as well. But what I am pretty confident of is that we're going to see some weather
25:21 systems pushing their way southwards as we go through this week. And they're bringing
25:26 some heavy rain at times, particularly there's some spells as we go through Wednesday and
25:31 then another spell as we go through Friday, particularly for the central southern parts
25:34 of the UK. And then with that, with that low pressure towards the northeast, we get that
25:38 cold Arctic air plunging its way southwards. And that's why we're going to see a real drop
25:43 in our temperatures as we go towards the weekend. So I hope that all made sense. I hope you
25:48 found it useful, interesting. As I said at the start, if you have enjoyed our deep dive,
25:53 our deep dives are always here every Tuesday, then do remember you can hit subscribe, hit
25:57 the like button. We do appreciate it. I will be going through your comments at the end
26:01 to see if there's anything that you'd like to see more of or less of or anything you'd
26:05 like to see done differently. So do leave a constructive comment if you have any feedback
26:10 suggestions. Remember to share this with anyone that you find think might find it interesting.
26:16 And for a more in-depth look at what we can expect going forwards over the next 10 days
26:21 or so, Aidan McGiven will be here with his 10 day trend on Wednesday. So don't forget
26:26 to catch that. But otherwise, I'll see you soon. Bye bye.

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