In this video, we dive into the whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and its indecisive stance on monetary policy. With a slew of FED speakers scheduled to take the stage next week, we explore what to expect from their speeches and how it could impact the markets. Plus, we'll discuss more earnings reports coming your way and the impact on your investments!
But that's not all! We also take you through a comprehensive recap of all the biggest news from last week, covering major market events and economic data. Stay tuned for updates on the banking sector as well, as we analyze the latest information and predict what lies ahead for these financial giants.
But that's not all! We also take you through a comprehensive recap of all the biggest news from last week, covering major market events and economic data. Stay tuned for updates on the banking sector as well, as we analyze the latest information and predict what lies ahead for these financial giants.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 The Fed's blackout period is over, meaning we're going to have about 7000 Fed speakers
00:07 this upcoming week.
00:08 Not literally, but it sure feels like that.
00:10 My name is Gav Blacksburg from Wolf Financial.
00:12 I'm here with Evan from Stock Market News, and we're going to bring you everything that
00:15 you need to know about this upcoming week in the stock market so that you can remain
00:19 a profitable trader.
00:21 Let's dive right into it.
00:23 Taking a look at the U.S. economic reports and Fed speakers for the upcoming week.
00:26 Evan, what are we looking at here?
00:29 Yeah, so as you said in the intro, there's going to be so many Fed speakers this week.
00:34 We had Kashkari go today on Sunday, so I think that kind of gives you the tone for the week
00:39 when we already have a Fed president speaking on Sunday.
00:42 We have one on Monday, we have one on Tuesday, and a couple other interesting pieces of data
00:47 on that first page.
00:48 I do think the majority of the data that I'll be watching will come in the later part of
00:52 the week, and for me I'm definitely focused on the GDP revision, the second revision of
00:56 that one.
00:57 That was the final number for the last quarter, so that also kind of means that the next quarter's
01:02 GDP should be coming soon, but it's expected to not move at all.
01:06 There's also some jobless claims on Thursday as well, but for me the biggest thing I'll
01:10 be watching on Friday is the Fed's preferred inflation index, and that is PCE.
01:16 So that's definitely what, when the Fed says they want to get inflation back to 2%, everyone
01:20 kind of quotes and looks at CPI, but what the Fed is looking at is PCE.
01:24 So definitely Friday, 8.30am Eastern, is a really big event that I'll be watching, and
01:30 then of course we have three Fed presidents speaking after that on that same day.
01:33 So should be a pretty busy Friday.
01:35 Wolf, what are you looking at?
01:37 Yeah, so many Fed presidents going to be speaking, also Collins on Thursday as well, looking
01:42 at that earlier part of the week.
01:43 We have Jefferson on Monday.
01:45 I mean, they are just no holds back.
01:48 We also have Barr testifying to the Senate about the banks on Tuesday, so remember, all
01:53 this banking stuff is still going on.
01:55 Before we deep dive this and really give you the intricate details, make sure that you
01:59 are subscribed to the channel that you're watching this on, and give this video a like.
02:04 We're going to be putting out really important content and updates throughout the week.
02:07 You're not going to want to miss them.
02:08 So hit the subscription and the bell notification so that you can have them coming right to
02:12 your device as they come out.
02:15 Let's take a look at the earnings side of the week as well.
02:18 Is there anything else on the Fed side that you want to hit on, Evan?
02:21 Nope.
02:22 Right here on earnings.
02:23 The biggest day is by far, by far Tuesday after the close.
02:26 Lulu, Lemon and Micron.
02:28 I think that's safe to say.
02:31 That's the big day.
02:33 Those are the household names that are coming.
02:35 But like every week, I love playing this game where we just find companies that we didn't
02:39 even know were publicly traded that are sitting on here.
02:43 So I'm sure people looking through this will find at least one or two of those that stand
02:46 out to them.
02:47 I did know that Rumble is traded on the public stock exchange, but it's cool to see that
02:52 their earnings are coming up.
02:53 We also have a favorite of yours, Planet, coming up here on Wednesday.
02:57 You watching out for that one?
02:59 I will be watching.
03:00 I actually do own a little bit of it.
03:01 I tried to take a trade on it recently and ended up taking a no.
03:05 Goes back to why I invest and don't trade.
03:07 But yeah, I'll be watching Planet.
03:09 I also have a Blackberry.
03:11 That's fun to see that one still around.
03:12 They don't even really make phones anymore.
03:15 But yeah, also Dave and Buster's.
03:17 But overall, I think it is still pretty much down, safe to say it's down season in earnings
03:22 season.
03:23 And we are getting very, very close to picking it back up.
03:26 The calendar, you could see we have, this week it is a little bit busy with names and
03:31 the next week and the week after there isn't much.
03:33 But if you look at Friday the 14th, that is really the kind of the signal, the start of
03:39 earnings season.
03:40 We have banks going, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citi, PNC.
03:44 And this list will get filled out more as more companies announce their actual earnings
03:48 date.
03:49 But Friday the 14th, watch out for that.
03:51 At least it's not Friday the 13th.
03:53 And big banks, a lot of people are very interested in what they're going to say.
03:57 Yeah, that's going to be a really interesting weekend, sandwiching that with the Monday
04:02 and Tuesday as well.
04:03 Looks like that Tuesday is when we're going to get Goldman Sachs.
04:06 And I think, you know, JP and some of those others are going to come out then.
04:09 So really interesting one.
04:10 But Charles Schwab actually going to be on that Monday.
04:12 As you can see there on the 17th.
04:14 We'll talk more about some of these names throughout this video.
04:17 Let's take a look, though, at the week that we just had a really green week in the stock
04:22 market.
04:23 Tesla leading the pack up several percent, almost 6% there.
04:26 Meta as well, having a really strong week with talks of TikTok potential bans.
04:30 You can see Apple, Google, Nvidia, the whole entire semiconductor industry, in fact, just
04:35 moving higher.
04:36 MU really green in that area.
04:37 Not a lot of red.
04:38 Red in some banks area.
04:39 This is understandable.
04:41 There's a lot of concern that's still going on there.
04:43 A little bit red in utilities and real estate.
04:46 You know, utilities very affected by interest rates typically.
04:50 So that's something to continue to look on there.
04:52 And then Amazon actually having a slight, slight down week.
04:55 Anything else standing out to you from the heat map?
04:58 I think you hit on most of it there.
05:00 We also have Schwab down there.
05:01 I think probably wasn't the worst before one of the week.
05:03 I could double check that for you.
05:05 But it is definitely the biggest square that I could see the ticker that did pretty bad.
05:09 Although First Republic, now that I'm kind of looking in that other bank section, might
05:13 not be doing too hot either.
05:15 But yeah, that is most of what I was looking at this past week from the heat map.
05:20 But events wise, there was a couple stories that were pretty large.
05:23 I think none other than Jerome Powell and his press conference.
05:27 So this, what you have right in front of you is the summary of economic projections.
05:31 This was released with this report.
05:34 And I find it to be very fascinating.
05:35 I find this just as important as what Powell said at his press conference.
05:40 And if you look at the bottom left where it says federal funds rate and what they're expecting
05:44 it, they still expect the Fed funds rate to get to 5.1% by the end of 2023.
05:50 And right now we are between 4.75 to 5%.
05:53 So what that signals is the Fed still expects to raise hikes one more time.
05:59 Damn, raise rates one more time this year at least and end the year at that level, kind
06:04 of signaling that higher for longer that we've been hearing so much.
06:09 Did you have anything interesting on this?
06:11 And then also Powell's press conference after.
06:13 Yeah, it was just an interesting move that we saw the market go higher and then plunge.
06:18 And of course, the big story of the week was while Fed Chair Powell was speaking, you also
06:23 had Janet Yellen speaking and they were saying contradictory items.
06:27 In Fed Chair Powell's speech, he said that banks don't have to worry that they can rest
06:31 assured that their deposits are insured.
06:34 And at the same time, Yellen came out saying they were not right.
06:38 And that's what made the market then tank.
06:40 And then Yellen came back online the next day, revised her words to be in line with
06:45 Jay Powell.
06:46 So just weird that they weren't on the same page with what they were saying.
06:48 And that's what caused the movements that we ultimately saw in the market.
06:52 Also, of course, we know everybody reads in a rhetoric during these.
06:56 So we just went ahead and grabbed the most used terms during Fed Chair Powell's speech
07:01 from March 22nd.
07:02 And as you can see here, inflation very close to the top, banking very close to the top,
07:08 hot topics at the moment, price stability.
07:10 So some of those most important ones are bolded for you in here.
07:15 Anything else standing out to you from this one?
07:16 My biggest takeaway from looking at this is the fact that inflation was said twice as
07:22 much as banking.
07:23 And that's where my takeaway was from this is what is Powell's focus?
07:28 I still really think it's inflation.
07:30 So we'll see coming out of this, but he chose it.
07:33 He likes to choose his words wisely.
07:35 I did also think there was.
07:37 It's understandable because, again, his job is inflation, right?
07:41 That is that is the mandate is 2 percent inflation.
07:43 So that's probably what most of the questions that he got asked.
07:47 And that's why he was sitting on inflation.
07:48 I think more banking shouldn't even typically be this high, right?
07:51 It's only this high because there's a current crisis.
07:53 It's not necessarily the main topic at hand when it comes to FOMC meetings.
07:59 It did feel like the majority of the questions were about banking.
08:02 But we will swiftly move on from this.
08:04 The only quote that I really want to read off from Powell was that he said he no longer
08:08 state that ongoing rates are appropriate to call inflation, but some additional rate hikes
08:14 may be needed.
08:15 So the quote kind of he even came back and re highlighted the words ongoing and some
08:19 and maybe we're going from ongoing to some and maybe as kind of what was significant.
08:25 But moving on from the week, we did have a couple other major stories as well.
08:29 It looks like Tesla China.
08:31 This is their domestic sales in China had a pretty solid quarter coming in at one hundred
08:36 and six point nine thousand.
08:38 We should be getting delivery deliveries in a week, two weeks, something like actually,
08:42 I believe it's a week is when we should be getting those Q1 delivery numbers for Tesla.
08:47 So definitely something to watch out for.
08:49 The price cuts might have been working is what this is showing me.
08:54 And then on the next one, I think this was also one of the bigger stories of the week
08:58 that might have gotten drowned out by all the craziness.
09:00 But Amazon announced another round of a layoff.
09:03 They're laying off nine thousand additional employees.
09:06 I believe that brings them up to twenty seven thousand employees.
09:09 Now, do they have a lot more employees than that?
09:12 Like a lot, lot more.
09:13 Yes.
09:14 But it's still another move of laying off some workers.
09:18 Did you have any thoughts on this one?
09:20 How many employees do they have again?
09:22 Is it like a million?
09:23 What do they got?
09:24 How do I stop myself from saying it?
09:25 Because I think it is well over a million.
09:27 Yeah, it's a huge number of Amazon employees and it's hard to figure out exactly.
09:32 So right now it's listed at about one point five million from what I'm seeing just from
09:38 Google.
09:39 So, yeah, there's a lot going on there.
09:40 They still have a ton of employees.
09:42 You have to really dig into the specifics of who's getting laid off.
09:44 But yeah, layoffs are continuing, especially from large cap.
09:48 Big story that we covered earlier this week, so we won't dive into it, was this Hindenburg
09:52 Research short report that they put out on Square.
09:55 We made a whole video covering this.
09:57 It's super informational.
09:58 It shows you why Square dropped 20 percent in one day.
10:01 We will drop the video here so you can go check it out or you can just go on to the
10:05 channel and look about one to two videos back.
10:08 I think it was the last video that we made.
10:10 And then also want to talk about Schwab for a second.
10:13 They came out with this super weird quote stating that they would have sufficient amount
10:16 of liquidity to cover a bank deposit runoff.
10:20 I don't love that they came out and said that there is no need to poke the bear.
10:24 Their stock has certainly suffered over the course of the past week.
10:27 They're now down, I think, close to 25 percent from where they were before all this banking
10:31 stuff started, although they were starting to make a move back up on the 21st.
10:35 You can see that this quote came out.
10:37 I guess we don't have the date on there, but I think it was the 22nd and they started falling
10:42 since then.
10:43 Right.
10:44 So it's not looking good.
10:45 I will say that I am accumulating a bit of an equity position inside of Schwab right
10:49 now, starting small.
10:51 I was adding a little bit more beforehand before I saw the credit default swap start
10:56 to surge on Schwab.
10:57 And just for those who aren't familiar, a credit default swap is the cost to ensure
11:01 bondholders against default.
11:03 And it's really moved up from around 50 to 124 on that credit default swap.
11:10 So that's not good at all.
11:11 This is the highest that it's ever been.
11:13 And it's just surging.
11:14 So it shows that there's just a distrust and that could be coming from a number of reasons.
11:18 It doesn't mean it's the end of the world for Schwab, but it's just making me DCA and
11:23 a little bit slower to the stock.
11:25 But if it falls another 5, 10 percent, I'll continue to add to it because I think that
11:28 there's a major bull case for them.
11:30 Everything that's happened with the banking system has been bullish for Schwab, you could
11:33 say, assuming that they do actually have the ability to cover all deposits.
11:38 They are just getting inflows, right?
11:40 All the regional bank money is coming to them.
11:42 Plus, they've acquired TD and that's going to allow them to hit all the traders, collect
11:47 fees there, and they're going to transition all of those TD users over in May to the Charles
11:52 Schwab platform.
11:54 So I see this as a way to get in a little bit of advance, especially at a discounted
11:58 price, right?
11:59 What if the stock falls another 10 percent?
12:00 Then all of a sudden they're like, "Oh, wait, we have all these TD Ameritrade people coming
12:02 in."
12:03 I think that could be a potential boom for the stock.
12:05 So I'm continuing to keep my eyes on it.
12:07 Maybe I'll have to do a bit of a deep dive video at some point to talk more on it.
12:11 But for now, we can move on.
12:12 One really quickly thing to add on that, Charles Schwab, you talked about the credit default
12:16 swaps.
12:18 So I saw a couple of people writing it and then I saw a couple of smart people that I
12:21 do trust chiming in on the other side of it that, yes, it has gone up a good bit, but
12:26 it really isn't even at a crazy level at this point.
12:29 I know Jay SpecialSits, he put out a post that the five-year CDS at 124 is less than
12:34 Bank of America.
12:35 Five-year CDS was trading at in October.
12:38 So it's not like it's one of those crazy levels I've never seen before across all these different
12:43 areas and banks that have been perfectly fine out there.
12:46 Yep, that's good to hear.
12:47 That's good to hear.
12:49 This story on SoFi came out and this is a move that you're seeing across the industry,
12:53 which is places that people are holding large quantities of cash in money market funds,
12:59 especially essentially coming out and stating that they're going to raise FDIC insurance.
13:03 We discussed what does this really mean?
13:05 Are they just breaking it up into multiple banks so that they can hit FDIC insurance
13:08 and all them?
13:09 Probably.
13:10 I keep my cash with Flourish right now.
13:11 They offer me 4.25 percent.
13:14 They sent out an email that they were increasing theirs to 1.5 million and they're also moving
13:19 up the availability, the available interest that you can earn on a certain amount of that
13:23 money.
13:24 So previously it was 4.25 percent on your first 250K and then 3 percent on everything
13:29 after that.
13:30 Now it is 4.25 percent on your first half million and then 3 percent on everything after
13:34 that.
13:35 So I think you're just going to see changes like that across the industry just to placate
13:39 depositors.
13:40 Do you have anything else you want to add on that story?
13:43 Nope, nothing too much on mine.
13:45 But the next story we do have on here is the AI race, the AI search race shall I say, that
13:51 is really kind of playing itself out and has been drowned out a little bit.
13:54 But Google made the announcement that this week that they have officially started opening
13:58 up limited access to its chat GBT competitor, Bard.
14:02 So if you guys want to dig into that and get on that wait list, now is the time to get
14:06 yourself on it.
14:07 And they also had Microsoft announcing that their chat GBT powered new Bing will be able
14:13 to show off images now using Dolly.
14:17 So you can basically come in and tell it to make a picture for you and it should do that.
14:21 I don't know if it's fully rolled out or just kind of starting, but that's definitely something
14:25 to watch out for.
14:26 Google does feel a little bit behind, but this is a long race.
14:30 So we'll see what happens on it.
14:32 I'm still in the camp while I'm using Google, but that's just me.
14:35 Yeah, so I am not using Bing personally, but I have gotten access to Google Bard and I've
14:40 played around with it and there are some things that I like, some things that I don't.
14:43 At this point, I think it has to learn more about me.
14:46 That's the beauty to chat GBT is that it learns your style.
14:49 So chat GBT knows how I want it to write now.
14:51 It knows how I want it to space things.
14:53 It knows how the reading level that I want it to talk at.
14:55 And that's because it's saved, you know, dozens and dozens of conversations with me.
14:59 I've only had about five with Google Bard.
15:02 I've done my research on it online, so I understand the product, but it doesn't know me yet.
15:06 So I'm curious to get it to that point and see where it can come from.
15:10 But I do like Google as well.
15:12 And I lean towards Google.
15:13 All right, last piece, we're going to go over here is this JP Morgan blunder.
15:19 So how did this come about, Evan?
15:23 So there is a whole backstory to it.
15:28 We could go through that on a different day.
15:30 But more or less, the moral of the story is JP Morgan was left holding the bag, kind of
15:33 literally on this one.
15:35 It's not that that much money.
15:36 So don't worry, they're fine.
15:37 It's $1.3 million, which I mean, for normal people is a lot of money, but for JP Morgan
15:42 is absolutely nothing.
15:43 But they thought they had 54 metric tons of nickel, they actually had 54 tons of stones.
15:49 I have so many questions like, where do you keep 54 tons of nickel?
15:54 Are you just making pennies?
15:56 What's happening with that?
15:57 But I feel like a lot of them will stay unanswered.
16:00 Did you see how JP Morgan made up the money by selling $10 million of a couple's jewelry
16:07 after drilling open a safety deposit box because they didn't pay their rent?
16:11 Oh, yeah.
16:12 Do you ever watch those shows with like the storage containers and they go in and raffle
16:17 them off?
16:18 It's basically kind of that.
16:19 Yeah.
16:20 So JP Morgan is actually getting sued for that right now.
16:21 But they had to recoup their nickel loss somehow.
16:24 So I think we covered everything really well throughout this video.
16:27 We gave you a good insight into what's coming with the next week with Fed speakers, earnings
16:31 and more.
16:32 Talked about everything that mattered from last week and gave some insights into different
16:36 specific stocks, the Fed and a bunch more.
16:38 One more time, if you enjoyed this, we appreciate you liking the video, subscribing to the channel.
16:42 We take time out of our weeks to put these together for free for the public and we hope
16:45 that you enjoy them.
16:47 Evan, anything you want to add on to this one before we close out?
16:49 I think you hit it really great there.
16:52 If you liked the video, make sure to subscribe, comment down below and we'll be back soon.
16:58 Take care, everybody.