Vu du Liban - 03/11/2023
MEDI1TV Afrique : Vu du Liban - 03/11/2023
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00:00 [Music]
00:11 And during this time, what has Hezbollah been doing since October 7th,
00:15 where its main objective is to slow down the Israeli land offensive in Gaza,
00:21 while making the United States understand that it and other groups supported by Iran
00:27 will not allow Hamas to be crushed.
00:30 The day after the 7th, Hezbollah attacked Israeli military posts in the contested area of the Sheba farms,
00:38 an operation that remained within the rules of the game, one would say,
00:42 attacked the Israeli army on the other side of the border, refusing to hit civilians.
00:48 The Lebanese group lost nearly 45 fighters,
00:50 most of them when Israel used drones and planes to target Hezbollah cells attacking its positions.
00:58 If we analyze the group's behavior since the beginning of the conflict,
01:02 we can draw a few objectives.
01:04 The first is to divert Israel from the battle that is taking place in Gaza
01:09 by occupying its army on the Lebanese border.
01:12 This could potentially become, perhaps not a second front line,
01:15 but rather a secondary conflict that would maintain a high level of tension in southern Lebanon.
01:22 The groups supported by Iran are exploiting their influence geographically,
01:25 already in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon,
01:29 this could stir up the spectrum of a regional conflict.
01:33 The second objective of Hezbollah would be to demonstrate that Israel cannot win on two fronts
01:40 and that if it continues like this, it will inevitably lead the Middle East to general devastation.
01:45 Again, it is a threat to chaos.
01:48 The third objective, this one emanates from the very structure of this movement,
01:52 run through trends and opinions that are sometimes divergent.
01:55 To embark Lebanon in a regional war, when we know the history of the country of cedar,
02:01 its disastrous economic situation, its impotent political class,
02:05 we say that a new conflict would only bring misfortune to misfortune.
02:10 In addition, Hezbollah has intentions, it has political ambitions,
02:13 it wants to manage an old systemic contradiction,
02:17 that of saying "we are Lebanese but faithful to Iran".
02:21 Sometimes it also says the opposite, it says "we are faithful to Iran but also Lebanese".
02:25 Because let's not forget that in Lebanon there are elections,
02:27 voting books, polls, it falls under the meaning
02:30 that a war adventure against Israel, a bloody adventure that would embark the whole country.
02:35 This Lebanon already very concerned by the Palestinian question,
02:39 nothing says that the movement would not pay the political cost in the ballot box,
02:43 at the risk of losing everything, all or part of what it has patiently built these last years.
02:48 Finally, the total embracement, when we make the sum of all this,
02:51 may not be for tomorrow, at least on the Lebanese side.
02:54 We must be extremely careful, but a priori,
02:56 it could be that Hezbollah is in fact on a rather calm tendency
03:01 in the level of confrontation that it is ready to engage with the Israeli state.
03:05 (Music)