Could a 'significant humanitarian pause' across Gaza Strip lead to a release of all hostages?
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00:00 Now, Israel and Hamas are reportedly closing in on a deal to release dozens of hostages.
00:05 Up to 70 women and children may be released by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian women
00:09 and children held in Israeli jails.
00:12 Hamas's armed wing has accused Israel of procrastinating on the deal, which would include a truce of
00:17 up to three to five days with Israel.
00:21 We can now bring in Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute
00:26 at the University College Dublin.
00:28 Good to have you with us here on France 24.
00:30 Now, in the first few weeks of this conflict, we saw four hostages released, two American
00:35 citizens and then we had two elderly Israeli women released.
00:39 But since then, nothing.
00:41 What in your opinion has taken so long?
00:44 Well, the primary reason why it took so long is that you cannot release hostages in an
00:53 active war zone, to put it as simply as that.
00:57 Hamas is holding these hostages, Israeli citizens and foreign nationals, as bargaining chips.
01:05 They have held them as bargaining chips to try to get the releases of prisoners from
01:10 Israeli detention.
01:11 They have held them at one point to try to deter the ground offensive.
01:16 They are holding them to try to get a cessation of the Israeli operations.
01:21 But the fundamental is, is that if Israel continues to bomb and Israel continues to
01:27 launch ground attacks throughout the Gaza Strip, there is no space to be able to complete
01:34 the deal for the hostages and then to get them to a safe area.
01:38 So that is why we're at this point with the reports today.
01:41 And that is if, if there's a humanitarian pause of three to five days, that not only
01:47 is a pause that could get aid into Gaza, but it gives you the time to be able to move the
01:52 hostages, whether it's 50, 60, 70, more or less, and possibly in exchange for women and
01:59 children being freed from Israeli prisons.
02:03 But a three to five day pause does not mean Israeli forces would leave the Gaza Strip,
02:09 does it?
02:10 No, absolutely not.
02:12 And what we have to be clear here is, is that we are not talking about ceasefire.
02:19 The Israeli leadership are vehemently rejecting any idea of that word because it would indicate
02:25 not only do you pause the conflict for a limited amount of time, but it means that the Israelis
02:30 step back from their operations.
02:32 The goal of the Israeli leadership, as expressed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is still to destroy
02:38 Hamas.
02:40 And that raises an obvious issue.
02:42 Given that Hamas is holding the hostages, how do you expect them to make concessions
02:47 and release hostages when their goal, when you're saying, but we're going to destroy
02:51 you in the end?
02:52 Exactly.
02:53 So what incentive does Hamas have to release the hostages if Israel keeps saying that our
02:57 goal is to get rid of you?
03:00 In this case, it is immediately to show that they can get something for the hostages.
03:06 So if they were able to get women and children out of Israeli prisons, they could celebrate,
03:11 quote, a victory.
03:12 They could say, look, to the civilians in Gaza, in the West Bank as well, where they
03:18 hope to gain an influence, we can get things done.
03:21 There is a further incentive, I think, keep your eyes and ears open for the idea that
03:27 some hostages could be exchanged in exchange for Israel pulling back from al-Shifa, around
03:34 al-Shifa Hospital, which your correspondents have just covered, because of course that
03:38 siege is threatening hundreds of lives.
03:41 So that could be another point where the hostages could be released.
03:44 But I think the big question on the hostages is, do you get a humanitarian pause which
03:49 is significant across all of the Gaza Strip beyond a few days?
03:54 If you could do that, then I think all of the hostages could be released, and you open
03:58 the possibility for a humanitarian pause turning into a ceasefire.
04:03 But we are not there yet, not for a long shot, with the Israeli leadership in terms of how
04:08 they see their operations proceeding.
04:11 I want to ask about the foreign nationals, because not only are there American nationals
04:16 among the hostages, but we also have French nationals, we have Thai nationals.
04:21 Are the French part of the discussions?
04:24 Because from what I heard, the Thais have gone to Iran directly to negotiate directly
04:30 with Hamas.
04:31 Yeah, I mean, the main line of negotiations is still probably going through Qatar, but
04:37 it is truly an international effort.
04:40 Understandably, a lot of people focus on the Americans, Joe Biden, Anthony Blinken, but
04:45 you have got French diplomats who are involved in these discussions.
04:49 You've got British diplomats involved, other European countries, the leader of Ireland,
04:54 the Taoiseach, Mikhail Martin, is going to be in Israel and in Egypt tomorrow.
05:01 And there is at least one Irish hostage that we know about.
05:04 So this is not just simply a U.S. effort over the hostages and trying to get Israel to limit
05:10 operations.
05:11 It is still an international coalition which has been trying now for six, well, almost
05:15 six weeks to try to get something, something to be able to safeguard the lives of civilians
05:20 and hostages who, I'll be honest with you, are being held as pawns both by Hamas and
05:27 by the Israeli government.
05:29 And as all this continues, the situation at Gaza's largest hospital, Al-Shifa Hospital,
05:35 continues to worsen.
05:36 Joe Biden has called for caution around this site.
05:41 But Hamas has threatened to walk away, given the situation at Al-Shifa.
05:45 Could this deal blow up in everyone's face?
05:48 Of course, the deal could, you know, could actually wind up unraveling at any moment.
05:55 You know, we've been talking about possible hostage deals for more than a month.
05:59 But the fact is, is that when the Israeli ground offensive took place more than two
06:03 weeks ago, that immediately suspended any possibility of a deal.
06:08 When we thought that talks could be revived, when you had hundreds of casualties in Jabalia
06:12 refugee camp, that set the negotiations back.
06:15 And I have to tell you that the most troubling statement today that could undo negotiations
06:21 is from the Israeli finance minister, who said just a few hours ago that in fact all
06:27 people, all Palestinians should leave Gaza.
06:30 That there is no longer an independent entity in Gaza.
06:34 In other words, if you call for Gaza to be depopulated, why should anyone negotiate with
06:40 you for the release of the hostages?
06:43 Because you're actually telling everybody, we don't recognize that you can live in this
06:46 territory anymore.
06:47 I mean, it's not the first incendiary statement we've had coming out of Israeli officials,
06:52 unfortunately.
06:53 Scott Lucas, we're going to have to leave it there.
06:54 Thank you very much for joining us on the program today.