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00:00US President Joe Biden spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu Wednesday about potential Israeli
00:05retaliation against Iran. It was one of several topics the two leaders addressed during the 30
00:10minute phone call. The White House says Biden also urged the Israeli Prime Minister to minimise
00:14civilian harm in Lebanon and they discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Biden
00:20has cautioned Israel against attempting to target Iran's nuclear programme.
00:25Let me just give you a couple of just top lines on the call. It lasted about 30 minutes,
00:32it was 30 minutes long, it was direct, it was productive, obviously the call that the
00:36President had with the Prime Minister of Israel. They discussed a range of issues. So as you all
00:42know, the US and the Israeli government have been discussing, have had discussion since last week,
00:49after, certainly since after the Iran attack. And so that, those discussions continued
00:56with the President and the Prime Minister. Well, for some more analysis on this story,
01:02we can bring in David Wood, who's the Lebanon Senior Analyst for International Crisis Group.
01:07Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24. I want to start with a few days ago,
01:12Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the people of Lebanon to turn away from Hezbollah.
01:18How has that been received by the population?
01:23So it seems as though, for as much as we can tell, that there are growing voices inside Israel to go
01:29further than just pushing Hezbollah's fighters away from the border and preventing rocket fire
01:34as a means to achieve that aim. And the video the other night from Benjamin Netanyahu caused
01:39a lot of concern in Lebanon, because it seemed to be suggesting that Lebanese who are not connected
01:45to Hezbollah and do not support its involvement in the war should stand up and take back their
01:49country, as the Israeli Prime Minister phrased it. But to many in Lebanon, they had a reasonable fear
01:55that this was basically a call to violently resist against Hezbollah. And at this incredibly
02:00sensitive time, when there's already much, much debate in Lebanon about whether Hezbollah should
02:07continue to be involved in the war, there's also, this is an incredibly sensitive time with as many
02:12displaced in the country and raising these kinds of questions, such as domestic parties actively
02:18confronting Hezbollah about its involvement in the war and perhaps its position within Lebanon's
02:23political scene is an incredibly risky and dangerous thing to do, which could lead to
02:27widespread violence and even civil war. And do you think with Israel's intensified attacks on
02:32Hezbollah and with the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, its leader, do you think we're witnessing the
02:38demise of the group? Well, without a doubt, Hezbollah has obviously suffered very serious
02:45damage in the past few weeks and months as well, but especially in the most recent weeks.
02:50That much is undeniable. However, we have also seen that Hezbollah has regrouped
02:55to the extent that it continues to fire rockets into Northern Israel and continues to confront
03:01Israeli troops conducting incursions as part of a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. So
03:06while the group has undoubtedly been weakened from where it was even a month ago, it is clearly
03:11not defeated and is continuing to carry out military operations against Israel.
03:17And the Israeli Defence Minister, Yoav Galant, promised a deadly and surprising attack, he said,
03:23on Iran in response to their ballistic missile fire. What do you think that Israel could target
03:30and how much of that depends on Washington? So obviously Washington will be very fearful
03:37of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. And I think we saw with Iran's attack last week
03:44that while Iran did not hit too many sites, it's clear that it showed its capacity to overwhelm
03:52Israel's air defences potentially. So Washington and Israel as well will be aware of this risk.
03:58It would seem to me as though the most likely target would be some kind of military infrastructure.
04:03It would obviously be more risky again for Israel to target nuclear infrastructure that's in Iran.
04:08But we'll need to see exactly what Israel determines will be its retaliation and I'm
04:12sure that the Americans will be part of that discussion. And if they do attack nuclear sites
04:18or oil facilities, do you think that this would in turn prompt another response from Iran towards
04:24Israel? I mean we didn't see that much real damage from their missile fire just over a week ago.
04:31What could we expect? So Iran is a very cautious player relatively speaking when it comes to
04:39military operations and we've seen that in its two direct attacks on Israel which have
04:45showed some level of restraint, even though the second was more impactful than the first.
04:51But equally if Iran is pushed and feels as though it needs to retaliate, it has the capacity
04:57as far as we know to fire missile and rocket attacks like it did last week for months and
05:04that could potentially overwhelm Israel's air defences. So while I'm sure that Iran does not
05:09want the conflict to escalate to that level, it does have capacity to inflict real damage
05:14it would seem on Israel in that kind of scenario. And Lebanon has been in a presidential vacuum
05:20since 2022. Could this war put pressure on Lebanon to kind of come out of this
05:25caretaker government or do you think it's only going to exacerbate the situation?
05:31So I think it's very unlikely that we will see a new president in Lebanon before the end of the war
05:37but on the other hand since the economic crisis began in Lebanon in October 2019,
05:43Lebanon's political leaders have resisted reform and instead continued to maintain the same broken
05:49system which serves their own selfish interests very well at the expense of most Lebanese.
05:53However, the end of a war could actually be the kind of major event which could push Lebanon's
05:58political elites to come to the negotiating table and reach a compromise which is another key reason
06:04to end the violence right now, move to a ceasefire in Lebanon and then potentially
06:09unlock the domestic situation. David Wood from International Crisis Group,
06:14thank you very much for your analysis. Thank you.