Dan says that the rotations will stick around amid a confusing macro situation. Risk on vs. risk off. Crude got killed, the 10-year-yield back at 2.8%, gold got killed and the Nasdaq rallied.
Dan talks about the influence of the dollar on Q2 earnings and guidance for Q3.
Dan touches upon bank stocks, where the major US money centers all made new 52-week lows.
Dan talks about the influence of the dollar on Q2 earnings and guidance for Q3.
Dan touches upon bank stocks, where the major US money centers all made new 52-week lows.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Oil prices plunging once again, closing below $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May.
00:05 It's 8% drop today, the biggest since March.
00:07 And check out how all of this played out in the stock market.
00:10 The S&P 500 down more than 2% at lows, managed to eke out a gain at the close, the Nasdaq
00:16 rising nearly 2%.
00:17 So what does this tell us, Dan, that we priced this in?
00:21 It was really confusing action today.
00:22 And I think the outperformance of the Nasdaq is saying something, but it's also relative
00:26 to money coming out of the energy complex, right?
00:28 So you had a good old-fashioned rotation there.
00:30 But if you think about it, it was risk on versus risk off.
00:32 I'm going to take stock of all those things that you just mentioned.
00:35 I mean, think about this.
00:36 We had crude that got killed.
00:37 We had the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield back at 2.8.
00:41 We had gold get killed, and then we had the Nasdaq rallying.
00:43 The flip side of that is that we have that move in the dollar.
00:47 That is something we're going to hear a whole heck of a lot about when we see companies
00:50 reporting Q2 and guiding for Q3 or the back half of the year.
00:54 And then that yield curve inversion.
00:55 That's kind of problematic, I think, on a lot of different levels.
00:58 The last time we've seen that, the last three times we've seen that, we've seen recessions,
01:01 we've seen bear markets.
01:02 And then the last one, look at these bank stocks.
01:05 The major U.S. money centers all made new 52-week lows today.
01:09 So there's a lot of cross-currents here.
01:11 We've been kind of highlighting that a little bit.
01:12 I think some of the names that rallied in the stock market today had been just so pressed
01:16 down into this holiday week or so.
01:18 So it makes sense to kind of relieve a little pressure there.
01:21 But again, I think we're going to continue to see rotations with the backdrop of a very
01:24 confusing macro situation.