Dan and Guy on What is Worth Buying at Today's Bear Market Levels & Holding for the Next Five Years
Dan and Guy's slow money play.
Dan says to mine the gap and says you are going to have better opportunities to buy any of these things. Dan discusses Alphabet and says to buy it in the $80s.
Guy picks Lockheed Martin.
Dan says to mine the gap and says you are going to have better opportunities to buy any of these things. Dan discusses Alphabet and says to buy it in the $80s.
Guy picks Lockheed Martin.
Transcript
00:00 - Slow Money.
00:01 - It's time now for, you guessed it, Slow Money.
00:10 Tonight we are asking the traders to give us a name
00:12 or names that at today's bear market levels
00:15 are worth buying now and holding for the next five years.
00:18 - I wonder what Tim's gonna say.
00:19 - I have no idea.
00:21 - I'm excited to hear.
00:23 (laughing)
00:25 - I mean, people have been hanging on.
00:26 I think the ratings just waiting for this segment.
00:29 And again, it's a new segment, folks.
00:30 So it's exciting, Slow Money.
00:32 - Thanks, Believe.
00:33 - It goes slowly.
00:34 - So let's continue the Lyft story.
00:35 - Just a thumbnail because we got, you know.
00:38 - Let's give some ground to some other people.
00:39 But the reasons for the next five years
00:41 are the reasons why you own Lyft
00:43 because it is a global leader
00:44 in transportation as a service.
00:46 It's not just a ride share, it's bikes, it's scooters,
00:48 it's all kinds of things, the partnerships that they have.
00:51 The driver issues and the ASPs
00:53 are two things I am not worried about.
00:54 The compounded annual growth rate
00:56 of probably 25% over these next five years
00:59 and the profitability that's, you know,
01:01 basically the operational leverage in this model.
01:03 This is absolutely, this is a stock,
01:05 doesn't matter that it's down 80% from its highs.
01:07 It matters that this is a company
01:09 that's well positioned for the future.
01:10 And I think a lot of the noise out of COVID
01:12 will be in the rear view mirror.
01:15 - Wow. - Right.
01:16 - Yeah, that's what I did.
01:17 - Down whatever percentage from highs is meaningless.
01:19 - Yep. - For this particular exercise,
01:21 it is where it is here.
01:23 - Back to the opportunity.
01:24 - And where it will be in five years.
01:25 So Karen, what's your slow money play?
01:26 - My slow money play is actually an ETF.
01:28 It's the XLV, which you know,
01:30 the Top of the Show guy was sort of in agreement with that.
01:32 I mean, a lot of reasons, you know,
01:33 the valuation I think is attractive right here.
01:36 The balance sheets are in great shape.
01:37 You have a sort of non-discretionary demand
01:39 for the products and for a lot of them,
01:42 great dividend yield.
01:43 So I think this is a good place to hide out.
01:46 I'm here.
01:47 - This is a Karen name,
01:49 but I actually didn't read the instructions on the email.
01:51 So I didn't realize it was like today.
01:53 I actually think-- - What do you mean?
01:54 - You have to mind the gap.
01:55 I just think they're gonna have better opportunities
01:57 to buy any of these things, okay?
01:59 And I'm gonna use Google here, Alphabet, okay?
02:01 And this is one that on current estimates,
02:03 they're expected to be up, okay?
02:04 Earnings this year are expected to be down.
02:06 So expectations have already come down.
02:08 Next year, expected to be 12% earnings growth,
02:11 13% sales growth, you know, 68% gross margins.
02:15 They have 10% of the market cap in cash,
02:16 you know, all the above, great.
02:18 Here's the thing, guys.
02:19 There's gonna be a gap.
02:20 There's gotta be a realization
02:21 that the 2023 numbers are not gonna be
02:24 what consensus is right now.
02:25 You're gonna have an opportunity
02:26 to buy a stock like this better.
02:28 And when you get that gap,
02:29 it's not gonna be a one-quarter thing.
02:30 It's gonna take two quarters to work themselves out.
02:32 So the stock trading at 97,
02:34 the consensus targets on this thing is 143.
02:37 There's 48 buys and three holds and no sells.
02:41 Sentiment hasn't shifted yet.
02:42 So you're gonna have an opportunity to buy a Google,
02:44 and then you buy it in the 80s or something like that,
02:47 and you'll hold it for five years.
02:48 - When I was in college,
02:49 I took a final exam my senior year.
02:51 - And you didn't read the instructions?
02:52 - And I didn't read the instructions.
02:53 - And what happened?
02:54 - And I was so excited when I just read like the first part,
02:57 and I like, "Oh, I know this!"
02:59 And I started to frantically write, and I handed it in.
03:02 And then the professor called me in later,
03:03 said, "You didn't read the instructions."
03:05 I said, "But yeah, I did such a great job."
03:07 Even, that's what Dan just did.
03:08 That's exactly what Dan just did.
03:10 I didn't get a good grade.
03:11 We want a great Dan quickly or no?
03:13 Or you just wanna go?
03:14 - I give him a C.
03:14 - I agree with that, by the way.
03:15 I wish I got a C in that class.
03:17 With that said, I say this all the time.
03:20 Gandhi could be president,
03:22 and defense spending will go higher in this country.
03:24 Lockheed Martin trading at 14 times next year's numbers
03:26 with a 24% growth rate.
03:28 That's where you wanna be in this game.