Miriam Bradbury from the Bureau of Meteorology says residents in North Brisbane need to brace for a potentially dangerous weather system.
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00:00 So, we do still have a severe weather warning current for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
00:06 that covers large parts of the southeast coast, pushing up into parts of the Wide Bay and
00:10 Burnett District as well.
00:11 Now that's covering areas just to the north of Brisbane.
00:15 In these areas we could see that heavy rainfall through the rest of today, but most notably
00:19 it's starting to come through in patches now.
00:22 So even if you're in a patch of eased rainfall, just be aware that when some heavier showers
00:27 or thunderstorms move back onshore, you could see that heavier rainfall returning very quickly.
00:32 Essentially it's just a message to everyone to remember that even if the rain is easing
00:36 up, the risk is not over yet.
00:37 That's why we still have a severe weather warning current for those areas.
00:41 The word 'volatile' seems to be used again and again to describe this particular weather
00:46 system.
00:47 Is it a particularly unpredictable one?
00:49 Look, it has been a very dynamic weather system, which means it has been changing quite quickly.
00:54 In addition to that, we do have thunderstorms in the mix as well, and as we're all well
00:57 aware, when thunderstorms are forecast, they can change the situation very quickly, and
01:03 they are also the determining factor usually for where we're going to see those highest
01:06 rainfall totals.
01:08 So combining that dynamic situation and the risk of thunderstorms means that we have seen
01:13 things changing quite quickly over the last two days with that rainfall coming in.
01:17 So flash flooding is a large risk, a considerable risk with the heavy rainfall that we're anticipating,
01:22 especially as the warning mentions locally intense rainfall as well.
01:26 That's even higher rainfall rates.
01:29 Flash flooding occurs very quickly when our storm drains and river systems get overwhelmed.
01:34 So even if you're in an area that's not currently flooded, if it starts raining, that flash
01:38 flooding could come on very quickly.
01:39 The impact that it has on our river systems can sometimes take a little longer though,
01:44 with those rivers sometimes taking hours or days to respond.
01:47 We don't currently have a flood warning current for the Brisbane River.
01:51 We have moderate flood warnings current for the Albert and Logan Rivers, closer to the
01:54 border, and for the Dawson River catchment.
01:56 However, the Brisbane River is covered in a flood watch.
02:00 That means it could potentially be upgraded into a flood warning over the coming hours
02:04 or next couple of days as water from flash flooding and other river rises feeds into
02:09 that system and we see that river starting to respond.
02:13 And talking about those delays of potentially days, I guess it might be a while until the
02:19 risk is expected to ease.
02:23 How long until people are sort of out of the woods?
02:26 So we're already starting to see the risk of heavy rainfall starting to contract north.
02:30 We've finalised that severe weather warning through northeast New South Wales and we're
02:34 even starting to see it ease up just on the Queensland side of the border.
02:38 But we may still see that risk continuing through into this evening, possibly even into
02:43 the early hours of tomorrow morning as far north as Garry.
02:47 However, we will see in those more southern parts of the warning area a trend towards
02:52 patchier showers and more isolated storms, hopefully through the later part of today.
02:56 However, residents in these areas should definitely be checking the Bureau's website continuously
03:01 for those warning updates.
03:03 As this situation is so dynamic, as I said, it can take sudden changes as the thunderstorms
03:08 or new waves of showers develop.
03:11 And Miriam, aren't we meant to be in the middle of an El Nino?
03:14 I mean, what's going on?
03:15 Why is it so wet?
03:17 So El Nino is a climate driver.
03:20 It doesn't necessarily account for the day to day or week to week weather systems that
03:24 move through.
03:25 It's also not a rainfall forecast.
03:27 It looks at conditions across the Pacific Ocean and tries to give us an indication of
03:31 how that might affect Australia.
03:32 And it is true.
03:33 Typically during an El Nino, we tend to see reduced rainfall through eastern Australia.
03:37 However, that's not always the case and every El Nino event is different.
03:42 And what we're seeing at the moment is an El Nino situation continuing, but weather
03:47 systems moving through which are tapping into intense moisture and producing this heavy
03:51 rainfall.
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