Severe storms and rain for Victoria, NSW, and Tasmania.
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00:00Rain and severe thunderstorms are forecast for Victoria, Melbourne, inland
00:05New South Wales and Tasmania today. Storms are already developing as I
00:10record this video, so I'm going to jump right in with a look at today's
00:13thunderstorm forecast, which shows us where we might expect to see
00:16thunderstorms through the remainder of our Wednesday. Now as always, the green
00:21areas on this map show where storms are possible. That covers much of eastern
00:26although notably today it does include the Sydney area, but not those parts of
00:30northeast New South Wales. We have a broad area of severe thunderstorms
00:35possible from southern inland Queensland through inland New South Wales and
00:39through a broad area of central Victoria that does include the Melbourne area and
00:44Geelong. This severe storm area does spill down into northern and northwestern
00:49parts of Tasmania as well. Now in these severe storm areas we could see
00:53widespread heavy falls that could lead to flash flooding. Damaging wind gusts
00:58and large hail are also possible with severe storms, but rainfall is the
01:02primary risk throughout the rest of today. Now our key focus area for storms
01:07today is really through this band that stretches from the southern Riverina
01:11through northeastern parts of Victoria and into western South Gippsland. It does
01:16include eastern parts of Melbourne, so those eastern districts are likely to
01:21see some severe thunderstorm activity today. The likely severe thunderstorm
01:25areas, these red areas, do spill down into northern parts of Tasmania as well.
01:29Communities throughout these areas should keep a close eye on the Bureau's
01:33website through the rest of today in case we do need to issue any severe
01:37thunderstorm warnings. Taking a look now at tomorrow's thunderstorm forecast to
01:42see how things will progress from here, we can see that the thunderstorm risk
01:46does shift eastwards. We continue to see storms possible across broad parts of
01:51eastern Australia, with some clearance through inland New South Wales and
01:54Victoria, but notably severe storms remain a risk for parts of New South
02:00Wales and northern Tasmania. In particular, we have an area of likely
02:05severe thunderstorms that includes Sydney and the Central Coast, southern
02:09parts of the Hunter and the Illawarra, as well as the Central Tablelands. That
02:13means Sydneysiders may see those severe storms tomorrow. Once again, heavy
02:18rainfall leading to flash flooding is the key risk with storms. Taking a look
02:23at how that will all play out with our synoptic map, we can see that we've got a
02:27low pressure trough, this blue dashed line here, which is helping to drive that
02:32shower and thunderstorm activity. Widespread across those eastern areas
02:36today, really concentrated through those central parts of Victoria, leading to
02:41that risk of heavy rainfall. Through the course of today, we will start to see
02:45some clearer skies starting to push into inland parts of Victoria and New
02:49South Wales, as the rain starts to shift eastwards. Going into tomorrow, that's
02:54when we see the rain pushing towards the East Coast, as I've said. We start to see
02:58the rain filling out through those Central Coast areas in particular, with
03:02that risk of flash flooding around Sydney and the Central Coast area. Now,
03:08exactly how much rainfall are we looking at in the next few days? Well, this is a
03:11map of our accumulated total forecast rainfall from around now to the end of
03:16tomorrow night. As you can see, widespread rainfall is on the forecast from
03:21southern Queensland throughout pretty much all of New South Wales, Victoria and
03:25Tasmania, but the highest rainfall accumulations are likely through parts
03:30of Tasmania, northeast Victoria and northern New South Wales. Of course, there
03:35is still some patchiness to this rainfall totals. We are likely to see
03:39widespread falls in the 20 to 50 millimetre range, but those highest
03:42falls will depend on where the storms are forecast. If severe storms move
03:47overhead, we could easily see triple digits in the rainfall gauges,
03:51and it's that kind of rainfall falling in a short space of time that can lead
03:55to dangerous conditions on the roads and about your property, as water moves over
04:00roads and access routes. Now, this situation is continuing to unfold at the
04:04moment. Make sure you keep an eye on the radar and the Bureau's website for all
04:08forecast and warning updates. You can also find that information by the BOM
04:12weather app and via our social media. Stay safe and we'll catch you in the
04:15next update.