Some areas around the South Australian, NSW, and Victoria border may be in for some localised flooding.
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00:00 Hi, it's Christy at the Bureau here to update you about the heavy rainfall that we're expecting
00:04 over parts of the east coast in the next few days.
00:08 So let's start with our synoptic weather pattern.
00:10 Now the system that really interests us is this low pressure trough over South Australia
00:14 at the moment.
00:15 And we can see that while by the end of today that system has mostly weakened out, we continue
00:20 to see showers continuing over inland parts.
00:23 Now this is because there's an upper low pressure system moving across the country.
00:27 And as we move into tomorrow, we can see those showers extending eastwards as the upper low
00:32 moves eastwards.
00:34 Now pretty light falls expected with those showers, but the impact of that upper low
00:38 will be to deepen a coastal trough along the coast.
00:41 And this is the weather system that's going to give us all the rainfall.
00:44 So by the end of tomorrow, we can see those winds starting to push in, showers and thunderstorms
00:49 pushing into southeastern parts of New South Wales.
00:53 And as we go into Thursday, that just continues with the coastal trough deepening, a low
00:57 pressure system forming, and rain and thunderstorms continuing to push into southeastern parts
01:04 of New South Wales.
01:06 On Friday, we can see some of that heavier rainfall even extending down into parts of
01:10 eastern Victoria as well.
01:12 And that low pressure system still sitting close to the coast and pushing that rain and
01:16 thunderstorms onto the coast.
01:19 But by Saturday, even though there is still some rain and thunderstorm risk in the morning,
01:23 by the end of the day that system is moving away and we do see back to just a few showers
01:28 for the rest of the long weekend.
01:31 So how much rainfall are we expecting?
01:33 Well this map shows the rainfall between now and the end of Saturday, and what we can see
01:38 is the heaviest rainfall expected over southeastern parts of the country.
01:42 So let's zoom in on that area.
01:45 These orange areas show widespread falls of over 50 millimetres with this system, but
01:50 of most interest are these pink and purple areas which are where we're expecting to see
01:54 potentially 100 to 200 millimetres or more.
01:59 Now currently that area extends from south of Wollongong down to the south coast, and
02:03 also the inland ranges, possibly even extending as far as parts of the ACT.
02:09 At the moment, Sydney not expecting to see the heaviest rainfall, although it will still
02:13 be a wet few days up there, but it will depend heavily on the exact movement of this trough
02:18 and low pressure system as to where we see the heaviest rainfall.
02:22 Now with the potential for well over 100 millimetres in some places, we are expecting to see flood
02:28 impacts.
02:29 In terms of riverine flooding, we are expecting to see river rises in catchments that have
02:33 seen recent rainfall, so the catchments are wet, and those that get the heaviest rainfall
02:38 with this system.
02:39 So we will start to issue flood warnings as we see the rain starting to fall and the river
02:43 starting to rise in response.
02:46 We also have particularly high tides along the coast this week, and so combined with
02:50 this heavy rainfall, we could see minor flooding in some of our tidal rivers as well.
02:56 And finally, there is the risk of flash flooding with this system, in particular with thunderstorms.
03:01 We could see thunderstorms each day, and that could give us rainfall falling over a short
03:06 period of time and giving us the risk of flash flooding.
03:09 So a lot of flood risk to consider over the next few days.
03:13 This is a developing situation and warnings will be issued over the next few days, so
03:17 it's really important to stay up to date on the Bureau's website and our app.
03:21 Make sure you've enabled push notifications to get the latest warnings direct to your
03:25 phone, and follow all advice from emergency services.
03:28 [Music]