محطات اقتصادية لافتة شهدها الاقتصاد اللبناني في 2023
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00:00 The year 2023 is not like the previous three years in which Lebanon has suffered the worst
00:07 economic, monetary and financial crisis in its history.
00:11 Despite the dark scene that it witnessed at the end of 2022, the current year has lessened
00:17 the burden on the citizens, especially the workers in the private sector who contributed
00:22 with the money of the exporters estimated at $8 billion, and the tourist season that
00:27 coincided with the $4 billion will be estimated at 0.5% as a positive indicator for the Lebanese
00:33 economy.
00:34 However, the inability to approve a government plan for recovery remains the main obstacle
00:39 to not reach an agreement with the IMF.
00:42 "The most important event that we were expecting to happen is the launch of a recovery plan
00:47 in agreement with the IMF, which accompanies those reforms.
00:50 There is one main point, that for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic,
00:55 the economy has not been able to recover, except if the Gaza war changed the numbers
01:00 a little at the end of the season.
01:03 But from the beginning, there was a growth of 0.5% or at least stability, and this is
01:09 an important event that the private sector and the economy were able to maintain this
01:14 situation without having a recovery plan."
01:17 Many milestones were drawn in 2023, perhaps the most prominent of which is the end of
01:22 the central bank of Lebanon, Riyad Salimi, and the surrender of the ruler of the country,
01:26 Wasim Mansouri, who managed the financial policy, while maintaining a stable exchange rate
01:30 and avoiding the state's funding from the Lebanese bank's foreign currency funds to
01:35 cover the balance of the balance sheet.
01:37 This balance sheet, which came out with a declared deficit of 46 trillion liras, or
01:42 approximately $500 million, has not been approved so far, while the 2024 balance
01:48 sheet is burdened with taxes and fees and faces objections from the parliamentary committee.
01:53 Without finding a solution to the money of the supporters, reform laws such as capital
01:58 control, the restructuring of banks, and the financial balance law, related to waiting
02:03 for public political solutions, in the light of a presidential and legislative vacuum,
02:08 and the government spending business, are not in full force.
02:11 "The year began with a second law, and there was a suspension of the Lebanese
02:17 bank's work, especially the basic sum of 157, which is required to save supported
02:22 dollars for the depositors. There was an adjustment of the official exchange rate
02:27 from 1,500 to 15,000. Then came the criminal investigation, which everyone
02:32 was asking for, but unfortunately, the lack of information and data required by the
02:37 side preparing for the criminal investigation, which is Alvarez and Marcell, was
02:42 missing from its content."
02:47 On the social level, the latest data has shown that the consumption prices in
02:53 Lebanon recorded a rise of 208% in September-July 2023, compared to the same period
02:59 in 2022, which is the rise of the prices of various raw materials and basic services,
03:05 so that Lebanon is in the second place among the 10 countries in the world
03:11 with the highest consumption of food, according to the international bank.
03:16 According to the report of the Lebanese Economic Center, the signs of normalization
03:21 and adaptation to the crisis and the slowdown in the escalation of economic activity
03:26 do not mean the realization of stability, as the economic growth that is estimated
03:31 to be about half of the total local output is a black spot in the Lebanese economy,
03:36 and a comprehensive reform plan is required to be a beacon of hope for 2024.
03:42 Alena Mrat, CNBC Arabia, Beirut.