Analysis: U.S.-Taiwan Defense Ties Under Lai
The U.S. says peace and security in the Taiwan Strait will continue to be one of its most important priorities. But how will the two countries work under President Tsai Ing-wen's successor, Lai Ching-te? TaiwanPlus speaks to David Sacks, a security analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C.
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00:00 What can we expect from the incoming Lai administration in terms of US and Taiwan defense cooperation?
00:06 Well, I think that the bottom line is that under President Lai, we would expect more of the same,
00:11 which is to continue to enhance US-Taiwan defense cooperation. And so, you know, I think over the
00:16 last eight years under President Tsai, we've done a lot, not only with training, but also,
00:23 of course, with arms sales and now getting into foreign military financing and presidential
00:28 drawdown authority. And I would expect, especially on the mil-to-mil front with enhanced training
00:35 and really working with Taiwan's military, that that would be really stepped up in the coming
00:40 years. So I think that it's going to be a lot of the same.
00:44 And on the other side, looking towards China,
00:47 what do you think Lai Ching-da is going to do to handle security in the Taiwan Strait?
00:51 You know, I thought that President-elect Lai's victory speech was really well done in the sense
01:00 that, you know, he extended an open hand to Beijing, said that he was open to cross-strait
01:07 dialogue on an equal footing, and that he sought to replace, you know, confrontation and hostility
01:14 with cooperation. So I actually think that Lai's strategy is that he doesn't want to give Beijing
01:22 an excuse to ramp up pressure on Taiwan or continue to change the status quo in the Taiwan
01:28 Strait, and to make it clear that when there is, you know, more pressure put on Taiwan and China
01:35 is doing more militarily or economically to coerce Taiwan, that it's clear to the United States,
01:41 to Japan, to Europe, and to the world who the aggressor is. And I think that, you know,
01:46 that's the key thing for the incoming administration. I think that's the focus.
01:52 And so far, he hasn't really given Beijing an opening to exploit and say, you know,
01:57 we are doing X because we were provoked by, you know, President-elect Lai or anything like that.
02:03 Looking forward to the year 2027, it's a year that the US says that Xi Jinping,
02:08 Chinese president has instructed the military to be able to take Taiwan. Now, many are debating
02:14 whether that's a deadline or that's a start date for a potential conflict with Taiwan.
02:18 But what can Taiwan do to deter a conflict from erupting in the Taiwan Strait?
02:23 I mean, so I would say at the top, I mean, personally, I don't believe that 2027 is a fixed
02:29 date on the calendar in Beijing. And so I think that what the United States does and what Taiwan
02:35 does can push back whatever kind of date or objective or goal Xi Jinping has in his mind.
02:42 So, you know, the top of my list would be that President Tsai has nearly doubled the defense
02:47 budget over the last years, eight years. I think that's great. And so I would like to see President
02:53 Lai pursuing that with, you know, four consecutive years of defense spending increases as a percentage
02:59 of GDP. I would like to see a lot more on Taiwan on the defense industrial side, as well as building
03:08 up, you know, its own defense industrial base in terms of missile production, drone development
03:12 and production, sea mines, all the types of asymmetric platforms that we talk about that
03:17 are critical for Taiwan's defense.
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