'Wreckless': Iran attacks neighbors 'to flex military muscle', rather than going after perpetrators'
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Transcript
00:00 For more, let's go to Washington.
00:02 Ali Vaiz is project director for Iran at International Crisis Group.
00:06 Thank you for speaking with us here on France 24.
00:08 My pleasure.
00:09 Are you surprised by this attack?
00:12 Well, the attack in Pakistan is quite unprecedented, and it's quite reckless.
00:19 Iran has good relations with Pakistan.
00:21 They have common enemies in the form of some of these jihadi groups, and they could have
00:26 coordinated this with the Pakistanis, as they have had in the past.
00:30 And also remember, Pakistan is a nuclear power, and in the middle of the tensions that Iran
00:37 is dealing with because of the Gaza war, this was a particularly provocative act to engage
00:45 in.
00:46 Yeah, they seem to be taking on all comers, those strikes coming the same day as the ones
00:49 that targeted Iraqi Kurdistan.
00:52 Absolutely.
00:54 I think Iran is trying to flex its military muscle because it feels particularly vulnerable.
01:01 It has been on the receiving end of U.S. and Israeli actions in the past few weeks.
01:07 There was a senior IRGC Revolutionary Guards commander who was killed by Israel in southern
01:13 Syria.
01:15 Hezbollah commanders and Shia militia commanders allied with Iran have also been killed by
01:22 the U.S. or Israel.
01:23 And of course, the U.S. has also bombed Yemen because of what the Houthis have done in the
01:29 Red Sea.
01:30 Iran itself has been subject to cyber attacks, to twin suicide bombings in the city of Kerman.
01:37 And so I think it felt that it's in a position of weakness and it needed to do something.
01:42 But what it has done is really reckless because it has targeted three of its neighboring countries
01:49 to the west and to the east with whom it actually has a good relationship.
01:54 And it's also feckless because it's not going after its real adversaries in the region,
02:02 which are the U.S. and Israel.
02:05 So what's it all about in this case?
02:08 Particularly you mentioned the big suicide attack that took place in Kerman that's been
02:12 claimed by ISIS.
02:15 Is it about that?
02:16 Is it about what happened at the killing of police officers in Sistan, Balochistan province?
02:23 What's it about?
02:25 I think it's, again, it's primarily about trying to signal that they're not in a position
02:29 of weakness, but they're not going after the real perpetrators here.
02:34 Iran has blamed the attack in Kerman, for instance, on the ISIS of Khorasan province,
02:40 which is based in Afghanistan.
02:42 But they don't want to open a new front against the Taliban.
02:45 So they have not taken any action in Afghanistan.
02:47 Or they have also blamed that ISIS was working in conjunction with Israel and the U.S., but
02:53 they have not responded against Israel or the U.S.
02:58 What they wanted to do was to take action so that it's a demonstration of force, flexing
03:04 their military muscle without necessarily provoking any kind of escalation with the
03:10 U.S. and Israel that would result in the expansion of the war in Gaza.
03:14 So this is how they have squared the circle.
03:17 But again, I think it's both reckless and feckless.
03:20 Ali Vaiz, the picture you're painting is one of an Iran that's on the back foot.
03:26 What we're seeing a lot of in the past days is an Iran pulling all the strings, what with
03:33 letting the Houthis be the ones to engage with the United States in the Red Sea, Hezbollah
03:41 being and Hamas being the ones who are fighting directly with Israel.
03:46 Which is it?
03:48 Well, I think it's actually on the surface it appears that Iran is 10 feet tall.
03:54 But in practice, what Iran has done since October 7th signals a high degree of restraint
04:01 and reluctance to enter into the fray or sacrifice any of its key assets in support of Hamas
04:08 or the people of Gaza or anything short of defense of its own homeland.
04:14 And so for that reason, I think overall, although Iran has impressive deterrence capabilities
04:20 in the form of all of these groups that could project power all the way from the Indian
04:25 Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, but in practice they are reluctant to use
04:32 those capabilities.
04:34 Remember that the Houthis are actually not a proxy of Iran and have a long track record
04:40 of ignoring Iranian advice.
04:42 And they have been the one who have taken the biggest risks.
04:45 But when it gets to Iran itself and Hezbollah, they have acted with a high degree of cautiousness,
04:51 which I think overall has diminished the credibility of the deterrence.
04:56 So what you're saying is that standoff between the Houthis and the United States is a little
05:01 bit autonomous of what Iran is doing elsewhere.
05:06 That is correct.
05:07 The Houthis are fiercely independent and they actually are doing this primarily based on
05:14 their own internal calculations.
05:17 It is true that Iran is complicit in the sense that it has provided them with capabilities
05:23 that they are now using, but it's not at all that they're acting on Iranian orders.
05:28 So this chance of the kind of risk of a situation where the United States finds itself in direct
05:36 confrontation with Iran, how high is it?
05:42 Well, it's getting higher by the day because although, as I said, the Houthis are not proxies
05:48 of Iran, but they might engage in the kind of activity, especially if it results in fatalities,
05:54 US or Western fatalities by targeting vessels in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, that Iran
06:03 might end up actually paying the price for.
06:05 And there are also, you know, the complexity of this situation is that we're talking about
06:09 a very wide geographic zone with a high number of non-state actors in it with different degrees
06:16 of coordination with Iran.
06:18 And so it's quite possible that one of these groups would take the kind of action that
06:23 would put Iran and the US in a direct confrontation, despite the fact that neither side has any
06:29 desire for it.
06:30 If you're Joe Biden right now, are you more worried about direct confrontation with Russia
06:34 or with Iran?
06:36 Well, I think the risk of direct confrontation with Iran is higher right now because of the
06:42 degree of friction.
06:43 You know, we're talking about, again, a very wide area through which a lot of black swans
06:53 could emerge.
06:54 With Russia also, remember that the US has diplomatic relations.
06:59 With Iran, the messages usually have to go through intermediaries.
07:05 And we're talking about a very emotional and very tense situation.
07:09 So I think there is a much bigger risk of miscalculation or mistakes that would result
07:17 in uncontrolled escalation.
07:19 Ali Vaehz, before we let you go, after this recall of ambassadors when it comes to between
07:28 Pakistan and Iran there, one of the diplomatic reactions coming from China calling on both
07:33 sides to essentially cool it, China, which has good relations with both.
07:41 What's your prediction as to what happens next?
07:44 Well, China has tremendous leverage.
07:47 There's no doubt about it.
07:48 The question is always whether China is willing to deploy its leverage to rein in Iran or
07:55 Iranian allies like the Houthis, who have targeting international shipping, by which
08:01 China is also indirectly affected.
08:05 But I think neither Pakistan nor Iraq are in a situation or have desire to continue
08:12 to either strain their relations with Iran or see further escalation of tensions with
08:18 Iran.
08:19 And so I think both sides would try to bring down the temperature.
08:22 And Iran, probably thinking that it has already demonstrated its capabilities, would no longer
08:30 see the need to continue with this kind of activity.
08:34 Ali Vaehz, I want to thank you so much for joining us from Washington.