Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Watching CJ Stroud in last week's playoffs games
00:15 was obviously amazing.
00:17 The problem is, they're gonna be going on the road
00:19 to Baltimore against a very tough pass defense.
00:22 The first and foremost issue
00:23 is gonna be the potential for some wind.
00:25 And the Houston Texans love to push the ball
00:28 down the field on early downs in the first three quarters.
00:31 In fact, they have the third highest average
00:34 target on early downs in the first three quarters.
00:37 And they like to throw the ball 15 plus yards
00:39 at one of the top seven highest rates
00:41 of any team in the NFL.
00:43 With those higher winds, that's gonna be a predicament.
00:45 The second element is the Ravens defense is outstanding
00:49 against these types of passes.
00:50 Against passes thrown 15 plus yards down the field
00:52 on early downs, the Ravens is number one in EPA per attempt,
00:56 number one in yards per attempt,
00:58 number two in completion rate,
00:59 and number three in success rate.
01:01 The other concern that I have is on the road,
01:04 the pass defenses that this Houston Texans offense
01:08 has faced on early downs,
01:09 on those deeper passes that they like to throw.
01:12 Number 31 Panthers, number 30 Titans,
01:14 number 29 Falcons, number 26 Colts,
01:17 number 23 Jaguars, number 20 Bengals,
01:20 and number 11 Jets.
01:21 Meaning they've played some very bad defenses
01:24 against deeper passes on early downs.
01:26 The Ravens are obviously not that at all.
01:28 They're elite against that.
01:30 What the Texans must do is come out here
01:32 and try to run the football.
01:34 The Ravens play with light boxes on these early downs
01:37 and one of the highest rates in the NFL,
01:38 like top two highest rate.
01:40 And when teams run the ball on these early downs
01:42 with their running backs, they have outstanding success.
01:45 The Baltimore Ravens run defense actually ranks dead last
01:48 in success rate, EPA per attempt, and yards per carry
01:51 on early downs in the first three quarters
01:53 if you come out and run your running back.
01:56 That will force them to put an extra defender in the box
01:59 and then you can utilize play action off of that.
02:01 But if the Houston Texans fall into a hole,
02:03 I think it's gonna be difficult for them
02:04 to dig themselves out because they're gonna be
02:06 predictably passing the ball into a great defense
02:09 of the Baltimore Ravens.
02:10 They must come out with intelligent play calling
02:13 and try to move the ball on the ground
02:15 until the Ravens load the box, then they can start passing.
02:18 (upbeat music)
02:20 (bells chiming)