Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba is Representative Director, President and CEO of Recruit Holdings. He previously served as Executive Vice President, COO overseeing the company’s business operations and was appointed as a Director in 2019.
Deko has led the digital transformation of the Company’s numerous businesses including Jalan, travel service and Hot Pepper Beauty, beauty salon reservation service. He was responsible for transitioning print publications and marketing into online businesses, and making online booking common in the Japan market. In his previous role as Senior Vice President, he led the acquisition of Indeed and later served as CEO & President of Indeed, transforming the Company into the leading global HR technology company it is today.
Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba joins 'Forbes Newsroom' to talk about AI's impact on the job market and how workforces may shift in the future.
0:00 Introduction
1:07 The Impact AI Has On The Future Workforce
2:39 Job Market Data: What Changes And What Stays
4:49 White Collar vs. Blue Collar Jobs
6:24 Japan's Job Market
8:52 Before COVID Hiring Numbers
10:22 Supply And Demand Across All Job Markets
11:02 Do Wages Currently Match Job Requirements?
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Deko has led the digital transformation of the Company’s numerous businesses including Jalan, travel service and Hot Pepper Beauty, beauty salon reservation service. He was responsible for transitioning print publications and marketing into online businesses, and making online booking common in the Japan market. In his previous role as Senior Vice President, he led the acquisition of Indeed and later served as CEO & President of Indeed, transforming the Company into the leading global HR technology company it is today.
Hisayuki "Deko" Idekoba joins 'Forbes Newsroom' to talk about AI's impact on the job market and how workforces may shift in the future.
0:00 Introduction
1:07 The Impact AI Has On The Future Workforce
2:39 Job Market Data: What Changes And What Stays
4:49 White Collar vs. Blue Collar Jobs
6:24 Japan's Job Market
8:52 Before COVID Hiring Numbers
10:22 Supply And Demand Across All Job Markets
11:02 Do Wages Currently Match Job Requirements?
Subscribe to FORBES: https://www.youtube.com/user/Forbes?sub_confirmation=1
Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:
https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript
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Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
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More From Forbes: http://forbes.com
Forbes covers the intersection of entrepreneurship, wealth, technology, business and lifestyle with a focus on people and success.
Category
🤖
TechTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Hi everybody, I'm Diane Brady.
00:04 I'm here with Deco, who is the CEO of Recruit Holdings,
00:07 Glassdoor, and indeed we're in AI house,
00:10 which of course, I think nothing embodies the chaos
00:13 and the enthusiasm for AI,
00:15 like standing where we're standing.
00:17 What do you think about this?
00:19 It's been the big theme at Davos this year.
00:21 - Yeah, of course, like that last 18 month or 12 month,
00:25 like the AI thing is becoming to be more and more real.
00:29 And of course I'm excited as a one technologist,
00:33 but,
00:34 (laughing)
00:35 but, you know, when we actually think about,
00:38 even 20 years ago, people are so excited about internet,
00:42 but, you know, I still think it takes time
00:45 because we need to keep training AI model
00:48 to be more like a realistic, you know,
00:52 that support for the real society
00:54 or real execution of the society.
00:58 So it's, it will, you know,
01:01 like change a lot of like our, our, our, you know, life.
01:06 - Yeah.
01:07 - But it just takes time.
01:08 - I suspect, are you talking about
01:11 what it's going to do to jobs?
01:13 Because when you think about,
01:14 there's some excitement maybe that's,
01:16 when it comes to displacing humans and jobs,
01:19 that's where the fear factor comes in.
01:22 So you, do you think we're just sort of overestimating
01:25 the fear factor right now?
01:27 Is that what it is that you think we're,
01:28 is too much hype?
01:30 - Yeah, you know, our research is showing AI
01:34 will affect almost all job seekers or all workers,
01:39 of course, but the important thing is,
01:43 it's going to be very difficult
01:44 to fully replace human being jobs.
01:49 And one example I like is, okay,
01:52 advanced AI, somebody built fully automated airline.
01:57 You know?
02:00 - I will not fly a fully automated airline.
02:02 Can I point that out?
02:03 - Can we just have one pilot at least, just in case?
02:07 I think that's the situation we're seeing.
02:10 What I'm seeing is like, of course we have a lot of data.
02:14 We are trying to build a lot of AI function
02:19 to sometimes automate procedures of hiring
02:23 or like to support human being recruiters.
02:27 But we, what we are actually thinking is,
02:30 probably we're going to need the human being aspect
02:35 to finally check or to decide the hiring.
02:39 - A lot of data to put into it,
02:41 jobs that'll change.
02:42 I mean, I want to talk about what's happening
02:43 on the ground because it seems like
02:46 when you look at the job market,
02:48 things are pretty good.
02:50 And yet the feelings about the job market aren't as good.
02:53 Do you see that disconnect between the companies
02:56 that you oversee?
02:58 - I've been saying the same thing over a year and a year.
03:02 What we are, what people are missing
03:05 is the shortage of labor supply.
03:08 For example, like 10 years ago, 15 years ago,
03:12 in the US, we had 2 million, 3 million additional
03:17 like working age population every year.
03:21 Meaning if we didn't have additional 2 million jobs,
03:25 we're going to have 1.5, 2% higher unemployment rate.
03:30 Meaning 2018, 2019, we had almost zero
03:36 additional working age population in the US.
03:38 - So the demographics have not shifted.
03:40 - It's been getting like, having like aging workforce.
03:45 So as a result, of course, we might be able
03:50 to have soft landing situation,
03:52 but the big factor of that is actually
03:55 the short supply of labor force.
03:59 So of course, the hiring demand will be going down.
04:04 It's cooling down from the high peak,
04:09 from the COVID recovery,
04:11 but still we are expecting a little bit longer term
04:16 tighter labor market.
04:19 - Well, let me ask about,
04:20 'cause if we unpack that a little,
04:21 when we talk about labor shortages,
04:23 the data engineers are not the ones who are worried.
04:26 It's the people who are at the lower end
04:29 of the income spectrum,
04:30 people who've already felt a bit displaced
04:32 or their wages haven't grown as much.
04:35 When you look at the spread of whether it's optimism
04:39 or job growth, is there not some valid fear
04:43 among that tier of people who are not growing
04:47 as a percentage of the workforce?
04:49 - I think one thing I wanted to mention is,
04:53 long-term trend was like white collar salary.
04:59 The gap between white collar salary
05:01 and blue collar salary was coming to be wider.
05:05 But the last year we saw that it's got
05:08 almost like opposite trend.
05:10 - Because of AI? No.
05:12 - We'll see.
05:13 But as I said, the basic trend is we don't have
05:17 enough supply of labor force.
05:18 Maybe the improvement of productivity for white collar
05:23 with AI, some technologies,
05:27 but I think in general, all developed countries
05:31 will have some kind of labor shortage.
05:34 So as a result, we might not have high unemployment rate
05:39 like we had like 10 years ago, 15 years ago,
05:44 but we might have relatively high employment rate
05:49 because if you want to hire workers for construction job
05:54 or in a primary job or nurses,
05:58 it's gonna be difficult to hire.
06:00 - When you talk, I start to think about what happened
06:03 in Japan, which has been an early mover
06:06 with regard to the trends you're talking about.
06:08 You also don't have a lot of growth in those situations
06:11 when there's a mismatch, especially when you need
06:14 skilled labor to kind of accelerate innovation.
06:17 So let me get back to that principle of,
06:20 on the emotional level, are we right to be worried?
06:23 - I think, again, like Japan is extremely,
06:27 extremely example of the aging workforce.
06:30 They're having 1%, 2% less working age population
06:34 every year.
06:36 So now, actually, for example, like one big restaurant chain
06:41 which have like 2000 restaurants,
06:46 they decided to have 3000 food delivery in Japan.
06:51 But as a result, they have better retention of workers.
06:57 They started to hire more like aged workers
07:01 because they don't need to work that way.
07:04 So I'm thinking, of course, it's challenging,
07:08 but still, when we think about the future
07:10 and AI and technology, it might be a good test field
07:15 to test new technologies,
07:17 how technology can work with human beings.
07:21 - What do you see in the near term?
07:22 So we're 2020, we're still election year.
07:25 Jobs and the economy are always critical to who wins.
07:29 What are you seeing in terms of the trend lines,
07:33 like say the next six to 12 months?
07:36 - Yeah, so I'm still thinking we're gonna have
07:40 a little bit mild recession.
07:42 I would not say that-- - So not a soft landing.
07:45 I don't know what a soft landing means, by the way.
07:47 What does that even mean?
07:48 - But I've been checking the labor market.
07:53 When I'm thinking about the unemployment rate,
07:57 it's not gonna be going up 5%, 6%.
08:00 Even 5%, it's a historical norm.
08:02 - But people feel worse than the numbers suggest.
08:05 - Because of the gap between wage inflation
08:09 and actual inflation.
08:11 But now, as I said, we might see
08:15 like a stubborn wage inflation.
08:20 So I would say for the next 12, 18 months,
08:24 even the economy is getting worse,
08:26 it's not gonna be like a terrible situation
08:30 because if, let's say, 4%, 5% people can keep their job,
08:35 the consumer numbers should not be that bad.
08:40 So it's not gonna be 2009, 2010 type of situation
08:45 because of the big demographic change
08:48 in many developed countries, especially--
08:52 - Are there any other trends that you're seeing
08:54 from the data?
08:55 Again, I wanna be respectful, you've got both Glassdoor
08:58 and you're also seeing on the recruiting side.
09:01 What else are you seeing that even early trends
09:05 that you would put on our radar?
09:07 - I would say the full example.
09:11 Numbers we are seeing is, when we compare
09:17 end of 2019 or beginning of 2020, before COVID,
09:21 we added, in the US, we added 2.8 million,
09:25 2.9 million workers.
09:27 But 90% of them are non-native Americans,
09:32 Polish-born workers.
09:36 So I still think, when we think about the actual matching,
09:41 we are having less skilled laborers
09:45 who have been doing car technicians
09:48 or constructions or nurses.
09:51 And we're getting more immigrants,
09:53 but we need to keep training the workforce.
09:57 Otherwise, for example, number of job posting
10:01 to hire nurses is still 40%, 50% higher than 2019.
10:06 - Than the number of nurses, yeah, that's the time of year.
10:08 - Yes, it's just a pure labor shortage.
10:13 - Are there particular areas of the country
10:14 where you see a particular gap or growing gap
10:18 that we should be worried about?
10:20 - I would say healthcare for all countries.
10:25 And still, when I talk with some government people,
10:31 sometimes they still think,
10:33 okay, we need more healthcare jobs.
10:34 I'm telling them, no.
10:37 Probably the younger generation
10:39 don't wanna do that kind of hard jobs.
10:41 So we need to change their mindset.
10:45 This is an extremely important job for society.
10:48 And probably we also need to think
10:52 how we can pay more for healthcare workers
10:55 or even teachers.
10:57 Are we really good to have this supply?
11:02 - Are you seeing wages go up in those areas?
11:05 You said it's a communication challenge.
11:07 - Yes.
11:08 - So employers recognize it's more that
11:10 people they're trying to reach
11:11 aren't necessarily appreciating.
11:13 Anything else, especially from Davos or otherwise?
11:15 I know that I'm stereotyping you
11:18 as a person to talk about jobs as you should.
11:21 Are there other things that you're thinking about here
11:24 and in general as a leader?
11:26 - Yeah, as I said, in general,
11:29 reskilling is a very important topic
11:31 for Davos for many, many years.
11:33 But I just wanna add,
11:36 how can we have a good training
11:39 for the skilled essential workers?
11:43 Not only tech workers, right?
11:46 So especially when we think about the future
11:49 of AI technology,
11:52 we will definitely need actual workers
11:56 for construction, farmer, car technicians, nurses.
12:00 But sometimes in Davos,
12:02 people are so focusing more on
12:05 white-collar, high-paid workers.
12:07 But when we think about the actual society,
12:12 through our data,
12:14 still 70% people are working for blue-card duties.
12:19 So I think when we think about the actual society
12:24 to be better,
12:26 how can we think about,
12:30 how can we be more to these actual essential workers
12:34 has been the challenge for the whole society.
12:37 That's how we are thinking.
12:38 - Excellent, it's a good message to bring.
12:40 Thank you for joining us.
12:41 - Thank you so much.