The Midas Touch: Battle for AI's Future please welcome interviewer: Alex Konrad, Senior Editor, Forbes and Vinod Khosla, Entrepreneur, Investor & Technologist
Subscribe to FORBES: https://www.youtube.com/user/Forbes?sub_confirmation=1
Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:
https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript
Stay Connected
Forbes newsletters: https://newsletters.editorial.forbes.com
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com
Forbes covers the intersection of entrepreneurship, wealth, technology, business and lifestyle with a focus on people and success.
Subscribe to FORBES: https://www.youtube.com/user/Forbes?sub_confirmation=1
Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:
https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript
Stay Connected
Forbes newsletters: https://newsletters.editorial.forbes.com
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com
Forbes covers the intersection of entrepreneurship, wealth, technology, business and lifestyle with a focus on people and success.
Category
🤖
TechTranscript
00:00Now for our next conversation the Midas touch battle for AI's future
00:05Please welcome interviewer Alex Conrad senior editor Forbes and Vinod Khosla
00:13entrepreneur investor and technologist
00:16Awesome. Well, I would ask Vinod what you're most excited about today
00:20But we have the cover of the current issue of Forbes right there behind us
00:23So it kind of gives gives the game away a little bit. Yeah
00:27Why is AI so exciting to you having been through multiple technology cycles in your career, right?
00:34Well, you think about it the steam engine
00:38amplified human muscle and every engine since has
00:42this is first time we get amplification of the human brain and
00:47within some short period of time
00:50And we can debate that almost every function human beings can do
00:56Will be done
00:58more scalably
01:00past probably better
01:03than humans can do and
01:05That's exciting. It's a whole era in humanity
01:09I think in terms of its implication for human beings, but also for all businesses
01:16so we've gotten big promises in the past from Silicon Valley about
01:21when
01:22When these technologies will replace
01:25Humans that we have to maybe talk to you like like right now
01:28I'm in the the hell of waiting months for a doctor's appointment
01:32I know that you believe that AI can put a doctor basically on every smartphone
01:37How far off really is that possibility? Well two things
01:42first
01:44entrepreneurs
01:45Won't be on nose if they don't have hubris and the press loves to amplify the hubris
01:51So I'll place it on you
01:54You know, you don't get on the cover if you say world isn't gonna change tomorrow's gonna be like today. So
02:03But we also tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term and
02:11Underestimated in the long term, you know
02:14Imagining a world without the Internet imagine the world without mobile phones
02:19That was the prevailing power paradigm in 2000
02:23I remember talking to the Prime Minister of India about this
02:27they were still trying to increase the penetration of landlines in the country in the year 2000 and
02:34technology always surprises
02:38So it'll surprise us again
02:39it will surprise us again probably at a larger scale than most people imagine a
02:45Big topic of conversation in the cover story that you participated in with us, you know, thank you for that was
02:51the geopolitical
02:53implications of AI
02:55Especially when it comes to other powers that might be in a race against the US in some ways like China
03:01What should this audience be, you know thinking about when it comes to this geopolitical implication?
03:06well, we clearly in a techno economic war with China and
03:11Whoever wins that will have huge economic influence and because of economic influence influence on
03:20policy and
03:21Politics and ideology and I for one don't want the Chinese ideology to win
03:28President Che clearly believes they have a superior
03:31ideology
03:32I don't think he's doing it just to win. He believes he has a superior ideology. I happen to
03:40Value liberal values more
03:43What what gives you confidence that the US can actually?
03:47slow down China or stay in the lead in the AI race if
03:52You know
03:52There are a lot of smart people and a lot of resources in China trying to copy a lot of our cutting-edge AI technology
03:58So China has the advantage of directing bulk resources towards problems
04:04the West has
04:07Advantages it's not just the West there's plenty of other countries around the world that have the same liberal
04:14Democratic values and one of your investments is a AI model company in India, right?
04:19We have a AI model company in India an AI model company in
04:23Japan because kanji is a different kind of script. So you do things differently
04:31Even how you treat blue lights and green lights and traffic lights is sort of confusing
04:36It's very cultural and local
04:41But I think whoever wins this race
04:45Will have social influence globally
04:48Latin America Southeast Asia Africa most parts of the world and what can we do?
04:55I think our entrepreneurial ecosystem is so robust and
05:00So much more open to creativity and imagination. That's our strength
05:04Innovation is our strength
05:07Are you optimistic that the US and our private and public sectors are?
05:13Aligned and moving in the right direction to win the AI race
05:17No, so far. It's been pretty good. It's
05:21most innovation in AI has come from
05:25the US mostly
05:28Some in other parts of the world
05:31So am I optimistic about that? Yes, am I complacent about that?
05:36Absolutely. Not. I think we should do everything to increase our pace of innovation and slow down the Chinese
05:45Including things like chip bands and things. Okay now
05:49I I know you've said you you broadly speaking supported the current administration's executive order on AI last fall
05:56and you believe that maybe a
05:58light amount of regulation is
06:01The correct course here the obviously the opponent of the current administration in the presidential election
06:07Donald Trump has signaled that he wants to sort of strip away any regulation about AI at all
06:12Why why is that maybe not the right route to move faster?
06:16You know any powerful technology be nuclear
06:22biotechnology AI
06:24has
06:25Benefits and costs and risks. So we have to balance as a society the risks and benefits
06:33There's people
06:35extremists what I call the EA extremists
06:40Who are pressing for no AI development and then there's people who just want a Wild West I don't think either
06:49Is a good answer
06:50Balanced approach to risk is what matters. I do a I do think of
06:55China is the biggest risk. There are other risks the risks like
07:01bioterrorism somebody in their lab alone doesn't even have to be a nation-state can
07:06Wreck havoc. So we have to be cautious. We have to worry
07:11But that doesn't mean we slow down progress
07:14one thing I do find interesting is that in this AI debate in Silicon Valley anyone who wants any sort of caution or
07:21You know rules at all is called a doomer and and a decel or deceleration is
07:28What you know, if someone called you that why would you reject that?
07:31Well, I don't care what people label
07:33Okay, right. The problem is if you add a label the press reports and it gets amplified
07:39So people like Trump get used to attaching labels to things because they get amplified
07:47In fact, I think we should be sensible about the risks and frankly look I'm
07:56I'm a techno optimist. My Twitter handle has been about techno optimism for years and years
08:02But I say you have to practice because of the large
08:07Impact technology is having on society
08:10And we come back to that
08:13We have to do it with empathy and with care
08:16so I sort of say I'm a techno optimist with real empathy and care for the people who get disrupted when it's
08:23When we have fun talking about disruption
08:26It's not a lot of fun when you're disrupted and the disrupted fight back
08:32We've seen this in the climate area and it slows things down. So bringing everybody along is a good idea
08:39We'll definitely come back to some of that tech
08:43Technology that has you optimistic in a couple minutes, but first speaking of disruption
08:48You've been pretty outspoken about the presidential election. I it's my understanding. You are not a fan of former President Donald Trump
08:56But you also identify as an independent, right? So so what is what is your
09:02Big argument, you know, if you have some business leaders here and a minute to kind of make your case
09:07You're talking about risks for a minute, okay climate risk is the biggest risk
09:13So I used to be a fiscal voter now. I'm a climate and fiscal voter
09:20My view is
09:22on Trump specifically there's a difference between Democrats and Republicans and frankly
09:30extremists like Tom
09:32Would you want your children to have the values that Trump has?
09:37Accused of rape accused of lying cheating all those values. That's a very simple test for me
09:43That's the first test up I apply
09:45I couldn't imagine no matter how much Trump promised me and he's promising the crypto guys
09:52No regulations some other people reduced that those are
09:57Valuable but not the most valuable thing in deciding who should be president of this company
10:03We should be a values driven society and he's basically ruined that and this is
10:13And it really isn't about Democrats and Republicans because most Republicans would agree with me
10:22But they're afraid to challenge him because if you've challenged him you sort of lost your vote because of this unusual
10:31Voting system we have
10:33Well, you'd probably get a different next question if Steve Forbes was on stage right now, but my question is
10:40Silicon Valley, do you see it?
10:42Moving to support Donald Trump for business reasons or do you believe you know when you talk to your peers?
10:48What is the sort of state of play when it comes to this election? Look a very small minority
10:54Support Trump and they're mostly after libertarian variety
11:02So
11:05It's a very small minority in my view I just saw an analysis yesterday that said
11:12Silicon Valley's supporting Democrats over Republicans four to one in terms of dollar contributions
11:20So but non-viral tweets
11:22Dollars maybe more than tweets because it seems from social media that there are a lot of outspoken people like David Sachs who are
11:29Leading Silicon Valley, right? Look Twitter has become sort of this megaphone for the extreme, right?
11:37Used to be a little bit to the extreme left
11:39There's no middle ground in social media
11:42Unfortunately, we should be wary of that. I ignore all the input I get on Twitter because it's almost always
11:51Either the extremists on the right or extremists on the left. There's DEI extremists and there's MAGA extremists
11:59You know, I have a simple test. You're a MAGA extremist if you believe the election was stolen. It's not about policy
12:05It's not about other things
12:08If we believe that
12:10Then we are on path to destroy democracy. That's another reason
12:14I think Trump is very very dangerous not for the next four years
12:19It's for the next 15
12:21That we should be worrying about and as a I know you don't like to call yourself a venture capitalist
12:26But everyone else calls you one of the best venture capitalists of all time. You do think in these very long time horizons
12:32When similar in technology or any other aspect of society, right?
12:36Yeah, so I gave a lawyer Ted talk in April this year about a dozen
12:43Really transformative
12:46approaches to society
12:48That almost certainly can happen if we let them happen
12:52I'm almost certain with the next 10-15 years
12:55We can have free doctors for everybody on the planet or near free is the cost of
13:01computing
13:02We have nearly nearly free personal tutors for every child on the planet because AI will be the AI tutor
13:11Doctor will be
13:13an AI doctor and whether you're talking about
13:17Structural engineers or oncologists almost all expertise will be free
13:23Think about it. That could be possible in the next decade. It may take 20 or 25 years for it to
13:31Go from 2% or 3%
13:34Adaption or early adaption to full penetration of society. How deflationary is that?
13:40So first we will see my bet is for the next 5 to 10 years
13:45Huge productivity growth and I wrote about in 2016. I said we will see great abundance with AI
13:51That was 2016. We'll see productivity growth
13:56GDP growth and
13:58increasing income disparity
14:01Unfortunately, I think we will see that and it looked like good economic metrics the next decade and
14:09Companies on the margin will have their revenue grow faster than their employees revenue per employee will go up
14:17For certain but at some point this becomes very deflationary beyond the decade
14:24Because you know you take the resources of a million doctors
14:29Making 300 K a year. That's 300 billion dollars worth of value out of the economy
14:35I think the measure of GDP will be wrong
14:39Interesting the way we measure GDP will no longer hold
14:43It's already starting to be true because my iPhone has more power than a Cray computer
14:50but
14:51GDP in computing has actually
14:54Not gone up with the amount of compute. So we will need new new metrics for productivity
14:59I think across the board even to how employees productivity is measured. I know energy is important to you, too
15:05Every part of employee role in AI accountant AI
15:11Salesperson AI customers for all that is happening today
15:15And it'll happen in the small companies first and then creep up
15:19But it is definitely gonna happen
15:22It would be my dream to talk for an hour more about AI
15:25But I do want to make sure we just hear quickly about why you're excited about your energy
15:30Investments and spending a lot of time there, too
15:32Well, we made you know, large bets is a lot of fun
15:37We made our first open AI investment in 2018
15:41It was a very large one even by the scope of our investments, but we invest in Commonwealth fusion at the same time
15:49One of my other forecasts we can eliminate more scars in most cities. Why because AI self-driving
15:57Allows not so much for self-driving which will increase congestion in cities, but a new kind of public transit system
16:05Interestingly this little startup
16:08Has been on a couple of projects and never lost one. It's one outright against the big players in public transit
16:15So I would say in so many areas
16:19Expertise will be near free
16:21Labor through robotics will be near free
16:24Computer programming will become so free that
16:28Computing will become more like electricity this utility in the background than something you use
16:36You know so far humans have had to learn computers whether it's learning your Bloomberg terminal or learning SAP or how to insert a
16:44row in Excel
16:46Computers will learn humans. So humans don't have to learn computers
16:50You won't have to say, you know how to use an app an app will learn how to use you or serve your needs
16:56I don't know if that's if I think that's cool or a little spooky or both
17:01But I do know that anyone here you don't get a choice on whether it happens
17:05You can decide whether it's spooky or not, but it's going to happen fair enough and anyone here working on alternatives to New York's congestion
17:12Pricing model sounds like they should be talking to the hood. So
17:16Absolutely congestion model, it's such a silly idea to restrict consumption
17:22When you can do much better system, there's only one thing fixed in a city is street width
17:28If you can increase
17:30Passengers per hour, it's a very big deal
17:33But I want to finish by saying almost all areas of climate because that's where you took me whether it's fusion or super
17:41Geothermal almost all areas of large carbon emission
17:46Will be replaced by technologies and watch this cheaper than their current
17:53fossil competitors
17:55We are well on our way over the next 10-15 years. We won't have to obsolete coal plants
18:01I say we will reequip them not obsolete them. We won't
18:06Shut down cement plants we will reequip them to be low carbon
18:10So very promising technologies on the way almost all these areas
18:15Well, you'll have to be very brave to bet against the note on one of these long-term predictions. Thank you so much for no
18:21Thank you everybody