Kansas City Chiefs - The Under-estimated Underdogs
Transcript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 We are seeing early market trading here.
00:05 San Francisco 49ers, they opened as the two point favorite.
00:09 Now it's minus one and a half, even minus one out there.
00:12 So we are seeing some initial money
00:15 on the Kansas City Chiefs as the short dog.
00:18 47 and a half being the total.
00:20 That seems to be the consensus number
00:23 out there available right now.
00:24 Two weeks until kickoff, I guess a little bit less here guys
00:27 is what kickoff for the Super Bowl,
00:29 usually around 6.30, 3.30 Pacific time.
00:33 So one in the hook, 47 and a half being the total.
00:37 Your initial thoughts on this opening number
00:39 for the Super Bowl, Mark.
00:40 - Well, I'm not surprised.
00:43 I mean, look, you know, it was probably about week,
00:46 when was it?
00:49 10, 12.
00:51 Let me go back and just look at the 49ers here for a second
00:55 because I remember several odds makers out there
00:59 exclaiming that the 49ers were five and a half points
01:04 better than every team in football on a neutral field.
01:07 Yeah, I think it was probably after they smoked the Eagles.
01:11 That's when it was.
01:12 After they beat the Eagles 42 to 19 in week 13,
01:15 odds makers just said, right now we have the 49ers
01:17 power rated better than five and a half points
01:19 to every team in football on neutral field.
01:21 Nobody really disagreed.
01:23 Then they came in week 16 and got spanked
01:25 by the Ravens at home.
01:27 And that sort of changed things a little bit.
01:29 Odds makers still do not believe metrically
01:32 in the Kansas City Chiefs and they have reason not to.
01:35 They're not very a metrically, you know,
01:37 they're not a sound team.
01:39 Their offense isn't great.
01:40 They don't score a lot of points.
01:42 They play these slog defensive games nonstop.
01:45 And, you know, it makes it tough to handicap them
01:49 as a favorite because they don't play a lot of offenses
01:54 that are as bad as they are.
01:56 Especially down the stretch, right?
01:57 That's what it boils down to.
01:59 Nobody's gonna argue the 49ers have a better offense
02:01 than the Chiefs.
02:03 Of course they do.
02:04 No one's gonna argue against the fact
02:05 that these two defenses are pretty darn close.
02:07 Of course they are.
02:08 So it makes sense that San Francisco would be a favorite.
02:10 I even think opening at two and a half, you know,
02:12 or two where they opened is probably giving Kansas City
02:15 more credit than they deserve because I would have opened
02:17 this line at two and a half or three.
02:20 I think San Francisco metrically,
02:22 and from a power rating standpoint
02:24 and how odds makers do this, is that much better.
02:27 But recency bias and the fact that it is the Chiefs
02:30 and we saw this Super Bowl matchup, what?
02:33 Four years ago, right?
02:35 Does that sound about right?
02:36 Three years ago?
02:37 - Something like that, yeah.
02:39 - Remember it was?
02:39 So yeah, it wasn't that long ago
02:44 that these two teams matched up.
02:45 Same head coaches, not the same quarterbacks,
02:48 but some of the same personnel,
02:50 but most of the same personnel for the Chiefs
02:52 with the exception of Tyree Kill.
02:54 Lots of different personnel for the Niners,
02:55 but all that said, you know,
02:58 the Chiefs and the playoffs are a tough sell.
03:01 I mean, look, you know what this is telling you
03:02 from the beginning?
03:03 Just pick the winner.
03:04 The spread doesn't matter.
03:05 I mean, if you're going to take this,
03:06 you may as well just money line bet either side.
03:09 What are you worried about?
03:10 What are you going to lay a point and a half
03:11 or take a point and a half for?
03:12 On the off chance the game lands on one?
03:14 Come on.
03:15 You know, everyone's going to money line this.
03:17 It's not going to matter.
03:19 So I'll probably stay away from the side.
03:22 I'll look to the total.
03:23 The public, I think, is going to bet this thing up
03:25 immediately.
03:26 I think Sharps will try to bet it down,
03:27 knowing that the Chiefs can't score.
03:29 I mean, the Chiefs didn't score a single point
03:32 in the second half of that football game today.
03:34 Is there reason to believe that they will again?
03:38 I don't know.
03:40 You know, it's hard to tell.
03:43 I will say this much about the 49ers defense
03:45 the last two weeks.
03:46 Didn't see them not playing this well.
03:49 They gave up 21 and 31.
03:52 Then again, the Chiefs are not a team that,
03:56 you know, Andy Reid will play to the game script
04:00 that's out in front of them.
04:02 I just, my basic thing is that I think the Chiefs
04:06 are going to score more than 20 in this game
04:08 because the 49ers defense,
04:10 I think teams have started to figure it out,
04:12 or at least good teams,
04:13 three weeks in a row now are going to start
04:15 to figure them out.
04:16 (upbeat music)
04:18 (bells chiming)