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SportsTranscript
00:00 So let's look at recent Super Bowls. Kansas City for instance in Super Bowl 54
00:08 the rematch against San Francisco closed as a one and a half point favorite and
00:13 the total was at 53. Of course the Chiefs won 31 to 20. They covered the number as
00:18 a short favorite. Total stayed barely under. Super Bowl 55 the Chiefs opened as
00:24 a three and a half point favorite closed still laying a field goal. The Buccaneers
00:29 were dominant 31 to 9. Tampa won outright. Super Bowl 56 remained pretty
00:34 consistent between the Rams and the Bengals. In fact in the last decade of
00:39 Super Bowls Donnie, Super Bowl 56 is the only game that incorporated the spread
00:44 where the spread mattered. LA won by 3, 23 to 20 over Cincy. Of course the
00:50 Bengals ended up covering. In the other nine the underdog has either won
00:54 outright that has happened six times now or the favorite has covered the number.
00:59 That includes last year's Super Bowl 57. KC opened as the favorite. By the time we
01:05 got the Super Bowl Sunday in Glendale Arizona the Birds, the Philadelphia Eagles
01:10 a short one and a half point favorite and it furthered the idea of Mahomes as
01:15 the underdog. Now 9 and 3 straight up in the 12 starts he has made in his career
01:20 dating back to 2018 as the underdog 10, 1 and 1 against the spread. And Donnie I
01:27 find it interesting when you use Super Bowl trends of recent history. Different
01:31 teams than who we see here even though it's a Super Bowl 54 rematch these two
01:36 teams are completely different in how they are orchestrated and constructed. And
01:41 yet you can start to learn a few things by how Super Bowl Sundays of the past
01:46 have played out. Six underdogs outright in the last 10 Super Bowl games and when
01:52 those six underdogs have won outright five of those six totals push to the over.
01:58 A couple of the recent trends as it pertains to this Super Bowl Sunday in
02:02 Super Bowl 58. Yeah and again there's those trends that you do want to look at
02:07 because the line movement is pretty interesting to try to watch it play out.
02:11 When I was growing up as a kid basically through the late 80s and early 90s when
02:14 we weren't getting any minus one and a half minus two and a half. There were
02:17 some games where the San Francisco 49ers would show up as 17 point favorites over the
02:22 Chargers. I mean we had some of those wild numbers where it was basically the
02:25 coronation. If you won the NFC Championship game they should have just
02:28 handed you the Super Bowl at the same time because it was a blowout route
02:31 runaway once that NFC team got to the Super Bowl. That's no longer the case and
02:35 that's fantastic because that's why it's fun to have here. We're not talking about
02:39 college football line 17 and a half point number 21 and a half point number.
02:42 We're talking about you pick the winner of the football game you are gonna
02:45 probably pick the winner on the spread line as well. So some of those trends
02:49 coming into it it doesn't affect me as a handicapper. So hey you see that recent
02:53 trend where the underdogs win all the time because I always take the Super Bowl
02:56 and any other game as a separate entity as how it plays out. So the influence for
03:01 me where I go you know what I can't take the Niners the underdog always wins the
03:04 Super Bowl that's certainly not a way to handicap that would be profitable long-term.
03:07 launcher.
03:08 [MUSIC]