Dan thinks the Fed should go a full 1% next week.
He thinks they should continue to front end load this thing.
Dan also discusses the housing market and unemployment.
He thinks they should continue to front end load this thing.
Dan also discusses the housing market and unemployment.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Which do you choose Bono in?
00:02 75 basis points
00:05 unwavering
00:06 Unwavering I I don't see any reason the two that are calling for 25 and a 25 25 drop
00:12 I think that's delusional to put it politely
00:14 I think the feds been very clear the fact that we're in a blackout period and they can't make commentary perhaps add a look adds
00:20 a little bit of
00:22 you know
00:23 It's a shroud of unknown around that but I think the Fed has been very steadfast and every time we doubt them they come out
00:30 And they make a statement
00:32 Reinforcing just how hawkish they are so I have no reason to to doubt them
00:36 I think it's 75 basis points without a doubt for me
00:38 I think that maybe I wasn't clear in terms of the nuance of this question
00:43 What do you think the Fed should do as opposed to what do you think the Fed will do?
00:48 Because the notion behind Jeffrey gunlock and Elon Musk's
00:52 Hope that the federal slow down
00:54 What it's doing is that the economy hasn't felt the impact of the right hikes that have put been put in place already
01:01 And so by going full steam ahead we could actually be driving the economy
01:05 Into a recession more quickly more deeply whatever, you know qualifier you want to put there
01:10 Mm-hmm. I think well it is somewhat of a blunt instrument that they have but I agree with Bonwin
01:14 I think 75 is the course they've said it that's what you would want them to do
01:18 That's what I want them to do and what I think yeah
01:20 What the so I think they should do and it is also what I think they will do and we can then let's see how
01:25 The data goes and they can adjust a little bit after instead of
01:28 Shade that would be a pivot right and I don't think pivot is great for them right now. Yeah. Yeah, I would just say this
01:34 I mean again, I'm gonna be a little contrarian here. I actually think they should go a full 1%
01:38 I think the CME FedWatch tool is pricing and maybe a 25% chance of that and here's the thing why I mean
01:43 We saw what happened to the stock market one day when it became very clear that they were not gonna do 50
01:48 They're gonna do 75 or at least that was a projection. Why not do a little more continue to front-end load this thing
01:54 We already see housing data rolling over
01:56 We know that they're very focused on the housing market and then the last piece of the puzzle is going to be
02:01 Employment and so again, you know
02:03 I think if they keep continually one step forward two steps back or however
02:06 They want to do it and kind of talk back their increases of their rate hikes
02:10 I don't think it's gonna do the job that they hope to do and there seem very committed to doing it
02:14 So why not just go big and you know see what happens Summers wants a full point
02:18 Because he thinks that the Fed has to show that it means business when it comes to fighting inflation Jeff
02:24 Where do you stand on this all?
02:26 Yeah, I mean I think the Fed should go 75 at this point it's the market is braced for it
02:32 So why not do it? I think the trajectory of inflation is up for debate. Nobody really knows what's going to happen
02:37 So take what's in front of you do that
02:39 But to your point earlier, even if we get some sort of a pause
02:41 I think this policy is going to hit us with a lag. So what's done is done and there's going to be an impact on earnings
02:48 There's going to be an impact on the economy and of regardless of what they do over the next couple of quarters