In this edition of State of the Union, we focus on how elections in faraway places like Taiwan and the United States can affect Europe. We also take a look at the latest regarding support for Ukraine.
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00:00 Hello and welcome to State of the Union.
00:02 I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.
00:05 While the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, there has been some sort of shadowboxing
00:11 this week over potential peace talks.
00:14 In Davos, Ukrainian President Zelensky got the Swiss government to host a peace conference
00:19 at some point in the future, without inviting Russia.
00:24 Then Moscow's Foreign Minister Lavrov shot back, saying that Ukraine would not decide
00:29 when to begin any serious talks, and that the West was not interested in negotiations
00:36 anyway.
00:37 The West, meanwhile, seemed to get its act together as far as further military support
00:42 is concerned.
00:43 Some EU countries committed to additional measures, and the EU in general is now ready
00:49 to approve its 50 billion euro package soon, with or without Hungary that has been blocking
00:56 it for months.
00:57 I think it's very important to engage with all 27 member states of the European Union
01:03 to get the 50 billion euro for four years for Ukraine up and running.
01:09 My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27.
01:13 If this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26.
01:18 There is a renewed sense of urgency as aid for Ukraine from its biggest donor by far,
01:24 the United States, is mired in political infighting in Washington.
01:29 And then there is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, however
01:34 speculative at this point, which could mean an end to US support for Ukraine altogether.
01:41 A nightmare for many in Europe, but a nightmare against which there is a great remedy, according
01:47 to the Belgian EU presidency.
01:50 Just wake up.
01:51 If 2024 brings us America first again, it will be more than ever Europe on its own.
02:02 We should, as Europeans, not fear that prospect.
02:08 We should embrace it.
02:09 We should embrace it by putting Europe on a more solid footing, stronger, more sovereign,
02:18 more self-reliant.
02:19 True, Trump won the Iowa caucuses overwhelmingly this week, but it is still a long way to go
02:27 to election day in November.
02:30 The US presidential election is not the only one with major ramifications for Europe this
02:36 year.
02:37 A week ago, the people of Taiwan elected a new president who basically refuses to cave
02:43 before Beijing, who considers the island a runaway province.
02:48 The European reaction to this democratic expression was rather muted.
02:53 Is Europe too fearful of negative reactions from Beijing?
02:58 Joining me now is Marijke Ullberg, senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Program of the
03:03 German Marshall Fund and head of the Stockholm China Forum.
03:07 Welcome to the program.
03:08 Thanks for having me.
03:10 So the election in Taiwan was one of the most closely watched geopolitical events of the
03:15 year, yet in the run-up of the vote, the European Union barely noticed it at all.
03:22 Is Taiwan a too hot potato?
03:25 There is, of course, still some reluctance in commenting on it to some degree.
03:30 Presumably there is still some nervousness about offending China to some degree.
03:35 So there is a little bit of a dance around some of that, but overall, people here are
03:40 paying much more closely attention now than just a few years ago.
03:44 The official EU position is yes to bilateral ties with Taiwan, but no political recognition
03:51 or diplomatic recognition.
03:53 That being said, do you see an opportunity for closer cooperation now that the election
03:58 is over?
03:59 I think what we can do is continue some of the cooperation that's already been taking
04:05 place or some more close coordination we've had in the last couple of years.
04:10 I mean, we've had some visits primarily from parliaments, delegations visiting Taiwan.
04:17 That is one thing that has happened.
04:19 And then we've also seen some careful, more careful ties at the ministerial level, where,
04:25 for instance, ministries went to Taiwan to talk to their Taiwanese counterparts.
04:32 And I think it's particularly these smaller corporations establishing ties and making
04:38 sure that Europe is invested in Taiwan, where I see the most benefit.
04:44 Yeah, you mentioned these visits.
04:46 There were last year, actually, 28 visits by EU parliamentary and government delegations,
04:54 a new record.
04:57 How do you interpret that interest on the European side?
05:01 Europe can't really offer Taiwan that much in terms of security and concrete defence.
05:07 I think most European Europe does not have the capacity to do that.
05:11 But one thing that Europe can do is signal an interest in Taiwan and try to signal to
05:18 the Chinese government that Europe has a vested interest and stability in the Taiwan Strait
05:24 and that Europe would be firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo through
05:31 military means or through coercion.
05:34 All right, Marijke Ullberg, China expert at the German Marshall Fund.
05:38 Thank you so much for your time today.
05:40 Appreciate it.
05:42 Thanks for having me.
05:44 The presidential election in Taiwan was a thriller, as it wasn't clear during the campaign
05:49 who would finally win.
05:52 Such a situation is unthinkable in Russia, which will go to the polls in March.
05:58 Any guess who will be the next Russian president?
06:01 Exactly.
06:04 This week, Vladimir Putin's campaign announced that more than two million Russians have signed
06:09 documents in support of him.
06:11 Under Russian law, independent candidates must gather at least 300,000 signatures from
06:17 40 regions or more to get on the ballot.
06:21 Putin has already collected 2.5 million signatures, one million more than in 2018.
06:29 If desired, we can collect more, the Kremlin spokesman said rather laconically.
06:35 Well, I'm sure you can.
06:38 And I'm also sure Putin will win.
06:41 In a way, I find it rather reassuring that there are some things in life that never change.
06:49 That's it for this edition.
06:50 I'm Stefan Grobe.
06:51 Thank you for watching.
06:52 Have an excellent week.
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