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00:00Earlier this week, eyes were also on neighbouring Moldova, where several European foreign ministers
00:05gathered for a conference.
00:06There, Germany's top diplomats warned that if Ukraine fails, then Moldova is the next
00:11country in line.
00:13Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the small country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania
00:17has alternated between pro-Russian and pro-Western governments, but now has a strong Western-oriented
00:24administration.
00:26Let's get more on Moldova's position in the war in Ukraine with Ramos Nilsson, lecturer
00:31in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at the University College London.
00:36Thank you so much for joining us on the programme, Ramos.
00:38First of all, I want to get your general thoughts on what the foreign minister from Germany
00:44said.
00:46If Ukraine falls, then Moldova is next.
00:48What's your thoughts on those comments?
00:50Good morning.
00:51I take the foreign minister's warnings, of course, and they are stark warnings and we
00:57should listen to them.
00:58What I would say, though, is what we're talking about and what I would argue she's talking
01:02about with Ukraine's fall would be a Ukraine placed in permanent uncertainty, permanent
01:10insecurity, with Russian attacks being able to hit across the country.
01:16That in the longer term would be the failed Ukraine.
01:18We are not, as things stand, talking about a situation where Russia could take over all
01:24of Ukraine or anything like that.
01:26However, if we ended up in a situation with that level of uncertainty, where all of Ukraine
01:33in effect becomes an unstable state because of Russian attacks, then yes, that same instability
01:39could be transferred to Moldova, which is already and has been throughout its post-Soviet
01:43existence has been quite a fragile state in many ways.
01:47So these warnings from the foreign minister are absolutely in their place.
01:53And during that meeting, the Moldovan president, Maja Sadu, said that the war in Ukraine has
01:58caused severe damage to the Moldovan economy.
02:02Can you lay out for us what sort of impact the conflict has had on the country's economy?
02:07Well, I mean, Moldova never had a very strong economy to begin with.
02:12It is the country that has depended quite extensively, for instance, on remittances
02:17from people working abroad.
02:19And it's now, of course, also dependent on aid, for instance, from the EU in particular.
02:26Its economy has, in the last few years since 2022, also been hit by a large influx of Ukrainian
02:32refugees.
02:33You know, in the West, we often talk about the number of Ukrainians who have come to
02:37our countries.
02:39But if you look at a country like Moldova, they took a huge amount of Ukrainian refugees,
02:44many of whom are still there.
02:46So that has had an impact on the economy.
02:48Of course, the economy in Moldova has also been impacted by a disruption of trade coming
02:55from the East, for instance, from the Ukrainian agricultural sector and other sectors, and
03:02going through Moldova into the West.
03:05All of this has hurt the Moldovan economy over the last few years.
03:10And for many of those leaders at that conference, the Moldovan economy is a big concern.
03:17That's why they've now agreed to donate €380 million in aid to Moldova now.
03:25What sort of importance does announcements like that, you know, agreements to send aid
03:31to Moldova, what sort of importance do they have as the conflict continues to drag on
03:36now?
03:37Yes, that's exactly what we should ask.
03:40I mean, on the one hand, of course, this sort of aid gives immediate practical assistance
03:45to Moldova.
03:46And that's very important, as I just indicated, given the weakness of the economy.
03:51But on top of that, this sort of aid and the messages coming out, including from, say,
03:56the German foreign minister, also indicate that the West cares about Moldova, that the
04:01West has its eye on Moldova and wants to help Moldova to progress.
04:04I mean, we see the same with, you know, Moldova's relationship with the EU more broadly.
04:10And those signals, signalling to Moldova that it will not be forgotten, it will not be abandoned.
04:15Those signals are of enormous symbolic and, you know, political importance.
04:20And the country also has its eyes, like Ukraine, on EU accession.
04:24Do you see that happening?
04:25Yes, I do see it happening.
04:29Not necessarily tomorrow, if you see what I mean, there are still things that have to
04:32be done.
04:34And I find it slightly, I don't think Moldova would come in before Ukraine, if you see what
04:39I mean.
04:40I think it's most likely they will come in together.
04:42And Ukraine will, apart from the war, need a bit more time to get ready for, probably
04:47than Moldova, to get ready for EU demands.
04:50But yes, I do absolutely see it.
04:51I mean, Moldova, you should remember, also has a sponsor inside the EU in the form of
04:56Romania.
04:57So it is reasonably well placed and it's a fairly small country with a fairly small population
05:02and economy.
05:03So it would not be a big problem for the EU to incorporate Moldova in itself.
05:10And the country is also gearing up to head to the polls in November.
05:14We've had evidence of Russian interference in votes that have happened in the past.
05:21Moldova going forward, these elections will be very important.
05:24Can you explain to us how important they will be?
05:27Well, they're, of course, very important because they signal the, you know, the medium and
05:33even long term direction of Moldovan domestic and foreign policies.
05:38So the government under President Maia Sandu has, of course, been very clear in his willingness
05:43to work with the West, seek EU integration, so on and so forth.
05:48And if they were to, you know, continue in power, if you see over the next few years,
05:53then that is a sign that Moldova can stop, if you like, flip flopping between geopolitical
05:58directions towards the West, towards the EU and geopolitical directions towards Russia.
06:04Of course, there will also be, as you will know, a referendum on Moldova's relationship
06:09with the EU, which again will have huge symbolic importance.
06:13Now, in both cases, my impression as things stand is that things are looking OK for the
06:19government, OK for the EU, for the EU direction of Moldova.
06:24But nothing is certain yet, of course.
06:26We'll have to wait and see what happens there.
06:28Ramos Nilsson, lecturer in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet politics at the University
06:34College London. Thank you so much for joining us on the programme.
06:36Really appreciate getting your thoughts there.