Locked on Rangers Podcast: Nathan Eovaldi on track, Adolis Garcia update, how good is Evan Carter?
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00:00 Evan Carter took the baseball world by storm last fall.
00:03 But did those expectations get set way too high for the rookie?
00:06 And which do the Rangers actually hope for
00:08 from their 21-year-old potential superstar?
00:11 Talk about all that and more on this episode of Locked on Rangers.
00:14 Let's get into it.
00:15 You are Locked on Rangers.
00:19 Your daily Texas Rangers podcast.
00:23 Part of the Locked on Podcast Network.
00:26 Your team, every day.
00:29 Every day.
00:30 You are locked on to the World Series champion Texas Rangers.
00:43 I'm Bryce Patrick, a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers fan
00:45 covering this team for 10 seasons, including all five
00:48 as the founder and host of this podcast.
00:50 Thank you all so much for making Locked on Rangers your first listen
00:52 every single day.
00:53 If you're not already, you can follow me on Twitter @BrycePatrick.
00:55 You can follow the show @LockedOnRangers.
00:57 Hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform and on YouTube,
01:00 where the best way you can help grow the show is to comment
01:03 nearly any single thing below.
01:05 Now, before we get into what to expect from Evan Carter,
01:08 why there is so much hype justifiably around this kid
01:11 and some really great developments on the most important pitching storyline
01:16 for the Rangers this spring training, today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel.
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01:29 Now the Rangers won their fifth spring training game yesterday.
01:34 On Thursday, the Rangers are just absolutely dominating
01:38 the Cactus League in route to an Iguana Cup, the most important trophy
01:43 of spring training.
01:45 The Rangers just on a on a bit of a kick
01:48 of getting these trophies exactly four months ago today,
01:51 they were hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy for the first time ever.
01:55 The most important event in the history of mankind,
01:58 the Earth, the solar system, this universe
02:02 and all other subsequent universes that may or may not exist.
02:06 The Rangers are World Series champs and they look absolutely amazing.
02:11 This spring training just absolutely astounding.
02:14 I talked a lot yesterday about Ezekiel Duran coming up clutch,
02:18 just looking so good this spring training.
02:20 He continues to absolutely astound.
02:22 Had another extra base hit in yesterday's game, his first double of spring training.
02:26 The guy is hitting 462 with 1192 OPS in spring training so far.
02:32 Not the most important counting stats in spring training,
02:36 not the most important or any stats in spring training,
02:39 but the guy just looks good.
02:41 As does Josh Smith.
02:42 Smith's played shortstop yesterday, worked a a a hit by pitch
02:47 because that's what Josh Smith does.
02:48 He gets on base.
02:49 He works good at bats, and he also the absolute tarnation
02:52 out of a ringing double hitting 400 with a 1300 OPS so far in spring training.
02:58 And Andrew Kisner continues to question spring training as well.
03:01 He is also hitting 400 with a 1200 OPS as a backup catcher.
03:05 Nice to see him getting some reps.
03:07 Nice to see him putting up some offensive numbers.
03:09 Not that it matters all that much because of Jonaheim.
03:13 And I don't see any kind of spring training breakout from Andrew Kisner
03:17 supplanting Jonaheim as the starting catcher for the Rangers.
03:22 But in yesterday's game, most of the important developments
03:25 came on the pitching side.
03:27 The Raiders had their ace on the hill, Nathan Eovaldi,
03:31 who went three innings was scheduled to go either three innings or 45 pitches.
03:34 And because he was just so darn good, so darn efficient,
03:38 he had to go throw some extra pitches after his bullpen,
03:41 trying to get that workload up and all the comments around
03:44 what he's doing this spring training, how he looks, everything about Eovaldi
03:49 is looking absolutely fantastic.
03:52 End of the day with three hits, no walks, five strikeouts,
03:56 a couple of hits and an earned run that came on a ringing double.
04:01 He threw just 10 pitches in the first to get a couple of strikeouts,
04:04 and he got his total five strikeouts.
04:06 He had two looking on fastballs, one on the curveball, one on the cutter,
04:10 one on the splitter.
04:11 All those outside of the two on the fastball were swinging strikeouts.
04:15 The guy looked nasty.
04:17 He got some other swinging strikes as well.
04:19 The guy was sitting in the mid 90s, which is exactly what we're looking for.
04:23 Exactly. The biggest storyline for me is how sharp does Eovaldi look?
04:28 What's his velocity?
04:29 How is his pitch count coming?
04:31 How ready is he going to be for opening day?
04:33 Because he's going to be so incredibly important to this rotation
04:37 with the other aces on the shelf.
04:39 I guess just two other guys I'd qualify as aces.
04:42 Tyler Malli, I don't know.
04:43 I go there quite yet, but DeGrom definitely ace
04:46 ace caliber pitcher and Max Scherzer
04:49 borderline at this point, but still a very, very valuable pitcher.
04:53 But Nathan Eovaldi postseason and when the Rangers need him most
04:56 is an ace level pitcher last year in the first half.
04:59 I feel like we forget how incredibly good he was in the first half.
05:02 I mean, I know Garrett Cole was incredible for the entire season.
05:06 Very deserved first Cy Young of his career.
05:08 Kind of insane that that was his first Cy Young.
05:11 But in the first half of the season, Nate Eovaldi was absolutely magnificent.
05:15 Started 18 games at 283 ERA in 117
05:19 117 two thirds innings, 10 and three
05:23 with a couple of complete games, including a shutout.
05:26 Meeley had a second complete game shutout and three complete games
05:29 in the first half, but he stepped up huge and the Rangers needed him
05:33 very, very badly in that first half.
05:36 They're going to need him really, really darn badly in the first half this year
05:39 while they're waiting for Max Scherzer and Tyler Malley and Jacob to get off
05:42 the aisle and get fully healthy and acclimated into this rotation.
05:46 Evaldi is definitely the clear ace of this staff.
05:49 He is a big game pitcher.
05:51 He is coming through when the Rangers need him most.
05:53 And so far hitting, you know, sitting in the mid nineties, touching as high as 98.
05:57 According to Jared Sandler on the broadcast, that is that is exactly
06:00 what the Rangers are looking for this spring training.
06:02 I mean, they need that so desperately badly seeing him go up to 45 pitches,
06:08 seeing him get through three innings, seeing him, you know, being pretty much
06:13 on track with where he came into camp.
06:15 It was exactly where the Rangers were asking him to.
06:17 There was no setbacks, no, nothing like that of any kind.
06:20 I mean, he is getting a little bit older.
06:22 He is 34 now, just turned 34 in mid February, and he's still
06:27 looking just as good as ever.
06:28 A three win season last year, and I feel like his overall numbers weren't that
06:32 impressive because, you know, he ended up with three, six ERA for the season.
06:36 But you look at that second half numbers and those, those seven
06:38 starts that he made in the second half.
06:40 You know, he went less than four innings per start and had a 718 ERA in the second
06:45 half, mostly because he was rehabbing at the big league level, only eight home
06:50 runs in those nearly 118 innings.
06:52 The first half, seven home runs in 26 out of 30 innings in the second half.
06:58 Those numbers really got skewed because the Rangers needed every bit of what
07:02 they could get from Eovaldi, which wasn't much because again, he was rehabbing at
07:06 the big league level for the last month of the season, which is why he looks so
07:09 bad and it was very nice that he, you know, rehabbed just enough to get fully
07:14 healthy for that dominant, world-changing, record-setting postseason run, winning
07:21 those five games, including game five, exactly four months ago today.
07:27 But Nathan Eovaldi wasn't the only pitcher who pitched in that game.
07:30 Rangers got some solid outings from Emiliano Teodo, who was doing his thing.
07:35 Touched in a hundred a couple of times, got a strikeout.
07:37 Got to see the first outing from Jose Leclerc since the world series.
07:41 Uh, like his buddy, Josh Spors, not super great, actually kind of worse than Spors.
07:47 Leclerc got a strikeout for his one out, but also walked guy, gave up three hits,
07:52 including a triple and a home run, not the sharpest outing, but again, it's
07:56 spring training, so it's not like the numbers particularly matter, all about
07:59 getting ready for that opening day.
08:01 But the rest of the relievers in this one got a couple of solid innings
08:04 from Owen White sitting 93 to 94.
08:07 That's exactly what we're hoping for outside of Nathan Eovaldi's
08:10 velocity and how he's coming along.
08:12 I think Owen White is the pitcher that I'm watching most closely, that I am
08:16 most optimistic about maybe cracking this rotation out of camp.
08:20 We'll, we'll see how the Rangers feel about what he's doing.
08:23 I think right now it's going to be Cody Bradford, but right now Cody Bradford
08:27 is kind of splitting his time, preparing to be a reliever and
08:33 a starter in spring training.
08:34 I think that means that the Rangers are impressed with what they've
08:37 seen from Owen White or they're feeling good about Jack Leiter or
08:40 one of the other depth options.
08:42 Maybe it's Danny Duffy that they're feeling good about maybe
08:45 cracking this rotation out of camp.
08:47 Uh, we'll see what that looks like, but also Yair Rodriguez sitting in the
08:50 upper nineties, touching 99 with a perfect inning of work, Mark Church
08:54 looking pretty darn good.
08:55 Didn't get a strikeout, didn't allow a hit, just allowed one walk.
08:58 And an interesting note from Sean McFarland of the Dallas Morning News
09:02 writing about Mark Church and how he became a pitcher.
09:06 It's an interesting story because back in high school, Church was a
09:10 shortstop and did not pitch.
09:13 And one of his buddies bet him a cool 50 bucks.
09:16 Hey, I bet you can't hit 90 miles an hour off the mound.
09:20 Well, he took that challenge, hopped up on the mound and threw 92.
09:25 And that worked out pretty well ever since.
09:29 Church is also being stretched out as a potential multi inning reliever,
09:32 which would be nice.
09:33 The Rangers, you know, don't have exactly the most reliable number four or five
09:38 starters in terms of going six, seven innings, like you would hope.
09:41 I mean, even the top end, I mean, I think Eovaldo you can count on to go
09:45 six, seven innings most times out when he's healthy, uh, we'll see about John
09:49 Gray, but usually he's not a guy who's going to go seven, eight innings, uh,
09:52 very deep in games and Heaney for as effective as he can be.
09:56 Usually he's not pitching, you know, into the seventh inning.
10:00 He was on more of a limited pinch count when he was a starter towards
10:03 the back end of the season.
10:04 The Rangers found him to be more effective in that role.
10:07 So having those guys who can go multiple innings is very, very valuable.
10:11 Mark Church has gotten incredibly nasty slider, probably the nastiest one in the
10:15 entire minor league system for the Rangers also up to 97 on the radar gun.
10:20 That is a very positive development.
10:21 If you're a Rodriguez can stay in the strike zone.
10:23 We all know how nasty his, his stuff plays up, but it's about being consistent
10:28 with the area where he goes with a lot of relievers as well.
10:31 And with Mark Church, Diego Castillo continues to look very good.
10:34 I wouldn't be surprised if he makes this Rangers pen in my updated, uh, whatever
10:39 it comes out, maybe sometime next week, the version two of my opening day roster
10:43 projection, I think I might have to put Diego Castillo on there if I didn't
10:47 already the first time out coming up, we'll look at a little bit of news about
10:50 El Bambi still not playing in his first spring training game.
10:53 Why that's okay.
10:54 And about Evan Carter and the high sky high expectations for that 21 year old
10:59 outfielder, right after this word from our sponsors.
11:02 This episode is brought to you by Fandul.
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11:17 It's 150 bucks.
11:18 If your bet wins right now, they've got odds on the favorite for AL rookie of the year.
11:23 Unsurprisingly, Evan Carter is number one, right there at plus 280 ahead of
11:28 Jackson holiday at plus three 40 and Wyatt Langford at plus 700.
11:32 So two Rangers in the top three.
11:34 I think Evan Carter is definitely right to be the favorite.
11:36 I mean, he absolutely lit up the post season and the end of the regular season
11:41 last year and talk about what I think he's going to do this year.
11:43 I think those plus two 80 odds are pretty darn solid at Evan Carter.
11:48 Being the AL rookie of the year and the third AL rookie of the year.
11:52 The Rangers have ever had talk about all that more later on this episode, but go
11:56 check it out on fandul.com/locked on and shoot your shot.
11:59 Fandul official sports book partner of the NBA.
12:02 Shout out to the everydayers making Lockdown Rangers your first
12:08 listed every single day.
12:09 We back on Monday talking about this weekend's games, things we learned
12:13 from these weekend games and who knows whatever news and notes
12:17 come about from this weekend.
12:19 Now the only non hurt.
12:22 Rangers starting player position player that is to make his yet to make his
12:28 spring training debut is Adolis Garcia.
12:31 Now there is no need to fret, no need to worry.
12:34 El Bambi is not hurt.
12:37 It has been iterated many times that El Bambi is not hurt.
12:40 El Bambi is not hurt.
12:42 He is just fine, but he is still being slow played in this spring training.
12:48 El Bambi had a couple of injuries at the end of last season, and he's a guy who's
12:53 played a lot of games over the last few years.
12:55 He's a guy who is very, very much a guy who is much better usually in the first
13:03 half, especially for those first couple of years of his career.
13:07 He is a very physical player.
13:08 He very much goes all out 110% every single time out.
13:12 I think this year he did a little bit better of a job of, you know, dialing
13:17 that back in, if not, you know, sprinting all out every single time, every single
13:21 play diving, every single time out because he is getting older.
13:25 He's not old by any means.
13:27 I think this is going to be his age 31 season.
13:29 Yes.
13:29 His age 31 season this year.
13:32 But as you start to age a little bit, when you are a very physical player and when he
13:38 did have the very subpar first half that he had in the first couple of years of his
13:42 career, thankfully this year, even though he sustained a couple injuries late on in
13:46 the season, including that knee injury, that was a very crucial to, to the
13:51 ranger season because it opened up a door for young Evan Carter to get up
13:54 here into the big leagues and game game three, after he had that oblique injury.
14:00 And we thought, okay, well, let's see how he starts the season.
14:03 He comes into spring training, just fine, perfectly healthy.
14:05 The ranger saying he is just on track exactly where they want him to be.
14:09 They're going to continue to slow play him because there is no need to get him
14:14 too many at bats in spring training.
14:16 Usually it takes hitters a lot less time to get ready for the
14:19 season in spring training.
14:20 And then it does for pitchers.
14:22 I mean, it takes a long time to build those pitchers back up.
14:24 That's why spring training is what six weeks long or however long it is.
14:28 It always feels like it is a very long time, even though it
14:32 feels like it's just started.
14:33 It also feels like it's kind of been dragging on for a little bit.
14:36 Because, uh, I don't know about you, but I am very ready for opening day,
14:41 just 27 days away from opening day.
14:43 But Hey, Adoles Garcia, there's no need to concern, be concerned.
14:47 No need to worry.
14:48 I'm not sure exactly when we're going to see him in his
14:50 first spring training game.
14:52 We did finally see Jonah Heim on Wednesday and his first spring training game.
14:56 Uh, I'm sure we'll get an update about Josh young in the next, I think about
15:00 next week will have been the three week mark, which was initially what was.
15:04 Was said.
15:05 And then not much after that, we will finally see, hopefully in a couple of
15:09 weeks, some updates about Corey Seeger and his return from sports hernia surgery.
15:15 We'll see what's going on with that, but I'm not worried about any of those
15:18 three guys, very excited to see him on the field, very excited to see
15:22 Obama hitting some dingers and more importantly, some dingers in the
15:25 regular season, which is just 27 days away.
15:29 Another injury update.
15:31 I guess that wasn't really as much an injury update as it was a non-injury
15:34 injury update, but Max Scherzer is not currently in camp.
15:37 Hasn't been since February 28th.
15:40 He is back home because there is not much he can do in his rehab.
15:43 At this point, we will know at the 12 week mark after his surgery.
15:48 From that herniated disc that he had surgery on back in December, that
15:52 12 week mark will be March 7th.
15:55 That will be kind of a key milestone for seeing, all right, how far along is Max
16:00 Scherzer, how much has he progressed?
16:03 What's going on with him?
16:04 Is he going to be ready in June?
16:06 Like we thought, or is it going to be a little bit longer or is
16:08 it going to be a little bit shorter?
16:09 I don't see much of a scenario where it is a, he is back sooner.
16:14 Then some point in June, I mean, expecting him back in May feels a little bit.
16:18 Foolish because he is in his late thirties at this point does have a lot
16:25 of mileage on his body pitching is a very physical, difficult thing to do.
16:30 And he's got what?
16:31 3000 plus major league innings under his belt.
16:34 Um, so just hoping that he gets the clean bill of health next week.
16:38 We'll know more about that.
16:40 Um, but good for Max Scherzer getting to go home in the middle of spring
16:44 training, go hang out with his family.
16:46 Um, very much looking forward to hopefully some positive updates on that
16:50 next week, because the Rangers are going to need Max Scherzer every bit of them.
16:54 And hopefully the same level of Max Scherzer that the Rangers got down the
16:57 stretch in the regular season.
16:58 And which was the fully healthy version of Max Scherzer, not the kind of banged
17:04 up, kind of pitching through it version of Max Scherzer that we saw in the
17:08 playoffs, the ALCS and the world series.
17:10 Now let's talk about the kid, Evan Carter.
17:13 I'm sure you've been waiting for this for a while.
17:15 The Evan Carter projection predictions, overall season preview for the 21 year
17:21 old outfielder in case you forgot, he's 21 years old.
17:24 He had a seven Carter kid that he came up and hit third for the Rangers in the
17:27 world series.
17:28 And during that world series run was playing incredible defense hitting
17:32 incredibly well set a record for most doubles by a rookie in a single playoff
17:37 run with nine hit 300 with an on base of 400 and a slugging over 500, a three,
17:43 four, five slash line in the freaking playoffs as a guy who just turned 21.
17:48 Just a month before those playoff started.
17:51 This kid was absolutely incredible down the stretch right now.
17:56 Like I said, on Fandel, he is the odds on favorite to win AL rookie of the year.
18:00 Last time the Rangers had a rookie of the year, that was Neftali Vlis back in 2010.
18:06 And they do have one other American league rookie of the year.
18:08 Some of you might remember this.
18:11 I do not remember this because I would not have been born for another
18:15 20 years after this happened.
18:17 But back in 1974, Mike Hargrove was the first Texas Ranger to win
18:23 American league rookie of the year.
18:24 Rangers had some other guys finished close Elvis Andrews finished second.
18:28 The Rangers had Josh young finished in the top four this past year.
18:32 I thought he should have been higher than four, but that it's a conversation
18:35 for yesterday's show.
18:36 If you want to hear me complain about that, I also had a Dolph
18:39 Garcia finished fourth back in 2021.
18:42 So the Rangers had some pretty good rookies.
18:44 They've got two pretty darn good rookies who might both finish in the top three or
18:48 top four this year in Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.
18:51 But depending on the publication, Evan Carter might be ranked below
18:55 Wyatt Langford in terms of the Rangers prospect rankings and the
18:57 expectations for him this year.
18:59 I had Evan Carter above Wyatt Langford because I thought, you know, Evan
19:04 Carter's ceiling might not be quite as high as Wyatt Langford's, but this kid's
19:09 already done it at the big league level.
19:11 Not just at the big league level, but for a team competing for a playoff
19:15 spot that needed every bit of what he was providing in that regular season.
19:19 And on a world series run to a championship, the guy was absolutely
19:24 nails in every aspect of the game.
19:28 But are some of those expectations that are being placed on him?
19:32 What are the expectations for him at this point?
19:34 Is the expectation that he's going to do exactly what he did in the regular
19:37 season, where he hit 306 with five home runs, 1.6 baseball reference
19:43 for in just 23 games.
19:45 He also had an on base of 413 and slugged 645 at OPS plus of 182.
19:54 Is he going to be 82% better than the average major league
19:58 hitter this year as a rookie?
19:59 I don't think so.
20:02 I think that's a bit too lofty of an expectation to put on this 21 year old
20:07 kid, but expecting him to be good.
20:09 He's expecting to be even very good.
20:12 I think that's not anything that's off limits.
20:16 I think there are obviously some questions about Evan Carter's game, but I think the
20:21 obvious good things that he is good at, the things that he will always be doing
20:26 very, very well, I think those far outweigh any kind of questions that
20:31 come about Evan Carter.
20:33 And again, he's still so young.
20:34 The ceiling is incredibly high for this kid coming up and talk about what I'm
20:38 expecting for Evan Carter this year.
20:40 Why some of those expectations could be a little bit dangerous from outside sources
20:44 and what he has to do to fulfill all those expectations in his first actual
20:50 full rookie season in the major leagues.
20:53 For after this word from our sponsors.
21:01 Shout out to the Everyday Speaking Lockdown Rangers, first listed every single day.
21:04 Later next week, I'll be talking with a member of Baseball Perspectives, not Grant
21:09 Schiller, about their Rangers season preview and then projecting the Rangers for 84
21:13 wins.
21:13 Look forward to that a little bit next week, probably sometime on Wednesday or
21:18 Thursday's show.
21:20 Now Evan Carter is coming in with incredibly high expectations, but what are some of
21:24 those projections projecting him for at this point?
21:27 Well, baseball references projections.
21:30 I think some of the overall slash lines and overall numbers in general look to be
21:37 pretty solid, but the questions I have, their reliability they put on their own,
21:41 their own confidence in their projections is at 24%.
21:45 And I think the main question I have with baseball reference is why are they
21:49 projecting Evan Carter for 238 plate appearances next year?
21:54 I feel like that's the main part that I have a big question with.
21:57 The batting average projection, the on-base slugging, home run numbers, all those
22:02 other numbers, those look about in line with what I would expect for Evan Carter,
22:07 but it's just the amount of playing time that he's going to get.
22:10 If he's getting only 238 plate appearances, either he has had some massive,
22:16 massive injury that has taken away most of his season, or I don't even know.
22:22 I don't even know.
22:22 It's basically just would be that because 238 plate appearances is like a third of
22:28 a season and I don't think, I don't see any scenario at all outside of some kind
22:32 of major injury or I don't know, maybe he murders somebody and gets suspended.
22:40 I don't have any idea what would make Evan Carter.
22:43 Not that I think Evan Carter is going to murder anybody.
22:45 He's a very morally upstanding young man with a very good head on his shoulders.
22:48 I think that I don't think he's gonna commit any crimes to get him taken off
22:53 the field for two thirds of the season.
22:55 But anyway, the overall rates batting average to 274 is according to baseball
23:00 reference home runs 10.
23:01 So for a full season, basically multiply these kind of by about three on base in
23:07 the three fifties slugging just five points shy of 500 and 852 OPS.
23:12 That is a very solid season.
23:14 Also six stolen bases in those 238 plate appearances, 12 doubles, two triples.
23:20 I think that's solid.
23:22 I think that's a solid projection of, of the slash line.
23:24 If he's gotten OPS around eight 50 for a full season as a big leaguer and is, is
23:29 getting at least 500 plate appearances.
23:31 Cause I don't see a scenario where he is going to be platooned.
23:34 I mean, he's not going to be great against lefties at this point.
23:38 I don't think he might end up getting good against lefties, which
23:41 is, is one of those questions.
23:44 But he's not going to be a platoon player.
23:46 The Rangers have already said that.
23:47 They said, yeah, he hasn't hit it lefties super well in his minor league career.
23:51 Hasn't had a whole lot of plate appearances against them.
23:54 So, I mean, that's kind of the expectation there.
23:56 And according to fan graphs, they project him to have a 2.8 war
24:02 season, according to zips.
24:04 Um, the steamer is less, less high on that, but the Zips
24:08 projection for 138 games, 700 or 600.
24:12 Not 700, 617 plate appearances has about 15 home runs hitting 259 on
24:18 base in the mid three fifties slugging just over 400.
24:21 Um, so in OPS, I believe that is seven 70.
24:25 If my math is mathing correctly.
24:27 Yes, exactly.
24:28 Seven 70 OPS, a 2.8 war player.
24:31 That's solid.
24:32 I think that's a solid projection.
24:34 I think that that on base percentages is probably about right.
24:38 Maybe the batting average might be a little bit higher.
24:40 They also project him for 19 stolen bases.
24:43 I'd go on the higher end on that 15 home runs is, is I'd say a solid projection.
24:47 I'm hoping he'd hit more, but if that's the season that he has a seven 70 OPS,
24:52 a 2.8 war player, while probably playing primarily in left field, that is a good
24:58 rookie season that is good enough to win rookie of the year, most years.
25:02 I don't know if it'd be good enough with whatever Jackson holiday is doing.
25:05 However much he plays, if he's in the major leagues from day one, if white
25:09 Langford's in the major leagues from day one but I think that's a solid projection.
25:13 I think the big questions about Evan Carter obviously are, can he hit lefties?
25:18 Can he hit for power?
25:20 And really that's about it.
25:23 If those are your two questions, can you hit lefties, which there's a lot more
25:27 right-handed pitchers in the big leagues than lefties and can you hit for power?
25:31 Which he did.
25:33 Granted, it wasn't a whole lot of home run power in the playoffs,
25:36 more so in the regular season.
25:38 Um, but this guy in the raw power, he's still very young.
25:42 Again, guys don't usually hit their full physical maturity until
25:46 like about their mid twenties.
25:48 Cause there was still a lot of questions about if Josh Young could hit for power
25:51 when he was in college, which was about when he was Evan Carter's age.
25:55 That was Josh Young.
25:57 I mean, he was Josh Young was in his sophomore year when he was 20 and, uh,
26:01 when he turned 21 or his age 21 season, basically, and then Evan Carter's just,
26:06 Oh, here we go.
26:07 Here's me in the playoffs in the regular season.
26:09 Uh, and also down the stretch, like just absolutely crushing it.
26:12 So I think those questions about Evan Carter hitting lefties.
26:15 I think those are fair concerns.
26:16 I think his strikeout rate from last year was, was definitely a fair concern.
26:19 I mean, it was something that he did not do well.
26:21 He did a great job of not chasing, not expanding his own, but his,
26:26 his strikeout rate was 32%.
26:28 His whiff rate was 30.2%.
26:31 That's not good.
26:32 Which especially means that he is swinging, missing in the zone,
26:35 which is extra not good, but his walk rate was absolutely elite at 16%.
26:40 I mean, the guy has just such an insanely good batting eye.
26:44 And because of that, he's getting better pitches to hit.
26:46 And because he's getting better pitches to hit, he does not have to be as country
26:50 strong to hit more home runs because he is getting those quality pitches and is
26:54 much easier to do damage on those kinds of pitches than just having to be extra
26:59 strong, hitting bad pitches out.
27:00 I don't think he's going to do a whole lot of that this year, but I think
27:04 projecting forward, hoping he's going to have, I think probably a couple of
27:07 seasons in his career of four to six, being a four to six win player, especially
27:13 if he starts to play more center field than Leo DiTaveris, but right now that's
27:17 Leo Di's job.
27:18 It's Leo Di's job to lose.
27:20 And I think that's the right call.
27:21 I think Leo DiTaveris playing every single day is something that he's earned
27:25 with what he did last year.
27:26 And Evan Carter also has earned the right to play every single day.
27:31 It'll be harder for him to accrue big war numbers while playing just in left field.
27:35 But as we saw in the playoffs, this guy's defense is incredible.
27:38 The things that Evan Carter does well are things that do not slump.
27:42 That's why I think the ceiling is so incredibly high on this kid.
27:45 So at worst, I think he's going to be a two and a half war player.
27:49 I just don't see a scenario where he is worse than that.
27:52 He is incredibly fast.
27:54 He's in the top 97% of baseball, the top 3% of baseball, I should say, in sprint
27:59 speed last year.
28:01 His range is very good.
28:02 His reads in the outfield are very darn good.
28:04 The arm, I think is better than expected.
28:06 He's made some of these really, really great throws.
28:08 He had a lot of outfield assists last year, a lot more than I expected him to.
28:12 I mean, the arm isn't, you know, Leo Di level or El Bambi level of strength, but
28:17 the accuracy is there and he gets the ball well.
28:19 He gets it out quickly.
28:20 He makes good throw decisions.
28:22 He is a very darn good fielder.
28:24 He has a good on base and good speed.
28:28 All three of those things are things that do not slump, which is why I like signing
28:33 Shinsu Chu at the time and signing players like that, who even if they are on the
28:36 older side, you worry about the power numbers sustaining.
28:39 That elite batter's eye.
28:41 That's never going to go away.
28:43 He's not going to suddenly get incredibly slow and he's not going to suddenly forget
28:48 how to play defense or run the bases very well.
28:51 I'm one of the things that I was most surprised by his projections for zips and
28:55 for fan graphs is all of these projections are almost all of them are expecting him to
29:00 be a negative defender and a negative base runner.
29:04 I don't know how they expect that with what he was doing in the playoffs, with what
29:08 he's done in his minor career, especially if he's doing it in left field.
29:12 Left field is not the hardest position to play in the outfield.
29:17 That's center field.
29:19 You're covering a lot more ground.
29:20 There's a lot more expected of you or it's right field where you know, you're having
29:24 to make a lot further throws, having to have a lot bigger arm, but left field, most
29:29 places, even the tricky ones, he was playing great defense in left field.
29:33 You guys might remember a certain catch that he made in a certain other stadium in
29:38 Texas and double off a certain player on a certain hated team that just got a contract
29:44 extension this year.
29:45 An absolutely delightful leaping grab at the wall in Houston by those garage doors.
29:50 And what was, I believe his first game, not even his second game in Houston, but one
29:56 of his first games already playing the most difficult left field, I think in the
30:00 entire major leagues, like that is an incredibly difficult part to play left field
30:04 because of how weird it is.
30:06 And he was doing it at an elite level at such a young age.
30:09 This kid is so insanely good at the things that do not vary.
30:17 Now his batting average and how much power he's going to hit for those determine
30:21 whether he's going to be, because I think at worst, he's going to be very good
30:25 player, but if he can hit for a solid average and the two seventies, two 80 range
30:32 that on base is going to be in the elite range.
30:35 And if he can hit for 2025 bombs a year and he's playing center field, that goes
30:40 from a guy who is probably a three to five wind player to a guy who is a five to seven
30:46 wind player.
30:47 That's MVP range.
30:49 I'm not saying Evan Carter is going to be an MVP this year or even any year in his
30:53 career, but those are the kinds of thing that determine what kind of player he is
30:58 going to be at the very worst.
31:00 That's why I'm so incredibly excited about Evan Carter because at worst he's
31:04 already a darn good player and at his best.
31:08 I mean, we've all seen how stinking good this kid can be.
31:13 And Oh, by the way, in case you forgot, he's only 21 years old.
31:18 That's going to do it for this week's shows.
31:20 Thank y'all so much for listening a big, big week.
31:22 Finally, spring training games are back.
31:25 We are just 27 days away from opening day.
31:28 Going to have a lot of great content for you in the next couple of weeks.
31:31 So thank y'all so much for listening and subscribing and until next time, don't
31:35 forget to enjoy world series champion, Texas Ranger baseball.
31:39 Yeah.
31:39 Yeah.