Tornado forecast for Spring 2024
Paul Pastelok gives the AccuWeather predictions for tornadoes in the Spring of 2024.
Transcript
00:00 We are looking at a slower start, but it will pick up.
00:03 2023 spring severe weather season got off to an early and furious start
00:07 thanks to major tornado outbreaks in late March and early April.
00:10 The number of tornadoes we're expecting in March is going to be much lower
00:14 than 2023. We had over 200 tornadoes in 2023.
00:18 I think this year it's going to be closer to the average, if not slightly below.
00:22 That's due to cooler than average waters in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico.
00:26 But as we move further into the spring, activity is expected to increase.
00:30 As the waters warm in the Gulf of Mexico and the jet streams
00:34 start to come together a little bit over the middle of the country,
00:36 that's when things start to take off, especially beginning to later April and May.
00:40 I think that's the time period that Tornado Alley, Mid-Mississippi Valley
00:44 and all that ingredients comes together and we start to see the development
00:48 take place in.
00:49 Pastelok says comparing the current pattern to that of previous years
00:52 highlights areas that may see the higher severe weather risk.
00:55 We've seen past what we call analog years, years that we match up
00:58 to the current pattern showing Illinois, Indiana
01:02 and these places getting hit in the past in this type of pattern.
01:04 AccuWeather long range experts expect severe weather and tornadoes
01:07 to ramp up during the peak of tornado season.
01:10 Look for some areas to really start taking off
01:13 as we get into the month of late April into May.
01:16 I think, again, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri will be the target areas.
01:20 Tornadoes occurring in Tornado Alley have been below historical average
01:24 in May's of recent years, but forecasters say that could change this year.
01:28 We do feel that it could be above historical averages
01:32 as far as the amount of tornadoes.
01:33 So kind of traditional.
01:35 That's the trend we're seeing for 2024.
01:38 For AccuWeather, I'm meteorologist Tony Laubach.
01:41 [BLANK_AUDIO]