10 Day Trend 24/04/2024–Getting warmer- Met Office Weather Forecast

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 24/04/2024.  Low pressure returns for southern areas this weekend, bringing a risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms but also milder air. To start next week it’ll likely remain unsettled for southern areas whilst in the north the influence of high pressure will edge ever closer.  Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.  We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.  Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

Transcript

00:00 Hello there, welcome to your latest 10 day trend. Now it has been a drier week but it's

00:04 also been a colder week. Both of those things are set to change as we head towards the weekend,

00:09 particularly for southern areas. The reason it's been quite so cold this week is because

00:14 we've had this northerly wind direction and quite a cold air mass over the UK. As low

00:18 pressure has been centred over towards Scandinavia and we've had higher pressure actually up

00:22 towards the northwest. But you can notice by the time we get to Wednesday evening we've

00:26 got low pressure starting to break through that high pressure and that's going to spread

00:30 its influence throughout the weekend. But for Wednesday evening we've got this feature

00:35 that will skirt along the east coast bringing some showery outbreaks of rain and then that

00:39 area of low pressure sinks to the south of the UK at first but then as we head towards

00:44 the weekend it arrives to the south of the UK and will spread up north and eastwards

00:49 through the course of Saturday and into Sunday. There is some uncertainty in the exact track

00:54 of that low pressure so that does mean there is some uncertainty on where exactly we will

00:58 see the heaviest rain but it is likely to turn milder and wetter from the south on the

01:03 weekend. More on that in a moment but for the time being let's cover the rest of this

01:08 week. So for Wednesday evening we have this occlusion feature. Now that's going to bring

01:13 showery outbreaks of rain by Thursday to many eastern areas of the country in particular.

01:18 We've still got cold air so that does bring a risk of snow to the high ground, perhaps

01:22 the Pennines and Scotland and we could see some hail mixed in with that as well. Showery

01:28 outbreaks of rain most likely across eastern areas but some western areas definitely couldn't

01:32 rule out the risk and there's just going to be quite a bit more cloud around on Thursday

01:35 compared to Wednesday in the west. That showery outbreak of rain should start to push away

01:42 to the east through the course of Thursday and into Friday so it will likely be quite

01:46 a clear and bright start to the day on Friday but cloud will bubble up through the day and

01:50 we'll see a few showers break out. Showers will be fewer and further in between than

01:55 on Thursday. They could still be the odd heavier one but I think particularly across central

01:59 areas it should stay largely dry. But notice in the south we're starting to see things

02:05 change. You can see skies turning that much cloudier. This is the starting influence of

02:10 that low pressure starting to arrive into the south on Friday afternoon so it brings

02:14 the threat of cloudier skies and perhaps some showery outbreaks of rain to end the day.

02:19 Now that band of rain will push northwards through Saturday and we will see further showery

02:24 outbreaks of rain as the main area of low pressure arrives through Saturday afternoon.

02:30 To the north of this area of low pressure though we should be escaping much of the risk

02:34 of that change to milder and wetter weather. Yes there is a risk of showers developing

02:38 across Northern Ireland and Scotland into the afternoon but I think the risk is quite

02:41 low and they will be fairly light and actually through the morning there will be plenty of

02:45 sunshine though it's still going to be fairly cold here. As you can see temperatures starting

02:49 to rise in the milder air to the south but that rain risk increasing through the afternoon.

02:55 Now this area of low pressure will pivot and push north eastwards through Saturday night

02:59 and into Sunday and it's Sunday when it's likely to be the bigger feature. So I think

03:04 it's Sunday when we're most likely to see a wetter day across many areas of the UK.

03:09 We see this main band of rain for many central areas but actually once it does clear to the

03:14 south and east of that we could also see some thunderstorms breaking out as well. However

03:20 to the north and west of it once again for Northern Ireland and much of Scotland we could

03:24 escape the risk of that rain. It could be a fairly decent day, there could be a decent

03:28 amount of sunshine and it's still not feeling too bad in the sunshine but again it could

03:32 be a fairly chilly night and a cold start to the day. Now as I said there is some uncertainty

03:37 in the track of that low pressure system. We'll be keeping you up to date with the details

03:41 as we go through the rest of the week particularly in our weekend forecast tomorrow. But let's

03:45 have a look at where the greatest risk of seeing that rain is through Saturday and then

03:49 through Sunday. So this is the ensemble forecast. So this is when we compare lots of different

03:55 model runs all slightly changed from one another and we see the probability of the greatest

04:00 risk of seeing rain. So this chart shows you the 24-hour rainfall accumulation and that's

04:05 a greater than 10 millimetres for the course of Saturday. Now greater than 10 millimetres

04:11 is enough to bring a significant amount of rain and you can see the greatest chance of

04:16 seeing that amount of rain where we've got the brighter yellows is across many southern

04:20 areas of the UK as far north as about southern Wales. There's also a chance that that rain

04:25 could push up into parts, much of Wales into parts of Northern England as well and if that

04:31 did do that, that would also bring the risk of thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon across

04:36 the south coast. But you can see that there's a very low chance of seeing any of that rain

04:41 across Northern Ireland and Scotland. So though you can't entirely rule it out, I think it's

04:45 quite unlikely that you'll see any significant rain. It's probably going to be still a fairly

04:49 fine day on Saturday across north western areas. Now on Sunday, as I said, that risk

04:54 is much greater and much wider spread for that heavier rain. It's a larger swathe of

05:00 the UK at risk of seeing some heavy rain. We've got a high probability that much of

05:06 Wales, Northern England and southern England as well actually will see that heavier rain

05:10 and it's to the southeast of that low pressure where we see the thunderstorm risk. Now as

05:15 I said, across the north west it's likely to stay dry. I think that's the most likely

05:19 situation but there is a greater chance, there's about a 10% probability that that rain could

05:24 spread as far north as Scotland. So I think don't rule out a wetter day on Sunday but

05:29 I think your best chance is that it will be drier than at least further south and east.

05:35 So it's turning a bit more unsettled as we head towards the weekend, bit of a change

05:39 but it is turning milder. So as we finish the weekend, we've got that area of low pressure.

05:43 Now as we watch that area of low pressure, it sweeps up to the north and east of the

05:48 UK and it starts to influence this pattern where we then, if you have a look, you can

05:53 see we see another area of low pressure start to arrive from the north and west once again.

05:59 So by Monday we're back into a repeat situation of how we end the week. We've got this colder

06:05 air mass moving in so it still could be a colder start on Monday. Ahead of this area

06:09 of low pressure it will probably be a fairly fine day but we'll likely see this low pressure

06:14 start to arrive into the south and west through Monday evening. Now the difference between

06:20 Monday and the end of this week is that once this low pressure develops to the southwest,

06:25 it's expected to sort of anchor itself to the southwest of the UK. So the most likely

06:30 pressure pattern for Tuesday and for the start of next week is this low pressure to be anchored

06:35 to the southwest of the UK. We've got higher pressure to the north so that's creating a

06:39 bit of a more of a ridged pattern. But then we've got around this low pressure a southerly

06:44 wind direction starting to form. Now that can do a couple of things. It will introduce

06:48 milder air so temperatures will likely continue to rise to average if not a little above average

06:54 for the start of next week. But also could start to throw up a risk of heavy showers

07:00 from the near continent as well. There's also the chance that this low pressure could be

07:04 slightly more centred across the UK at least to start the week. But we'll start to see

07:10 this higher pressure moving from the north and guide that low pressure out of the way

07:15 as the week progresses. So by Thursday this is the most likely pressure pattern. That

07:19 low pressure is still influencing southern areas but to the north we've definitely got

07:22 the influence of that higher pressure. Much the same as we've had through this week. So

07:27 I think the best chance of any drier weather through next week is definitely still across

07:31 northern areas of the UK. This low pressure still to the south will continue to bring

07:36 a risk of some heavy pulses of rain at times. That will continue to change as we head towards

07:43 next weekend as well. So by the 4th of May this is the most likely pressure pattern.

07:48 That low pressure now well away to the south and east of the UK. This higher pressure being

07:53 more dominant. Now it's not centred across the UK but it does mean we will see drier

07:58 weather by the end of the week. And this north easterly wind direction. So not necessarily

08:03 a particularly warm direction or a sunny direction once again. But definitely turning a bit drier

08:08 and less unsettled than we will have started the week across the south. So an improvement

08:12 as the week goes on. So the general pattern for the rainfall through next week is for

08:18 us to see much of the rainfall falling across southern areas. Now this shows you the precipitation

08:24 anomaly. So this is the anomaly from the average for this time of year. Where we see green

08:29 colours that's wetter than average. Orangey colours drier than average. So as you would

08:33 expect with that low pressure anchored to the south we'll see wetter than average weather

08:37 to the south. So wetter across the south. Drier across the far north west. Sort of somewhere

08:43 around average in the middle. So I think as it has been this week the further north and

08:47 west you are the more likely you are to see drier weather. But it will turn the difference

08:52 between this week and next week as it is looking that much milder. This is another good way

08:57 to look at how we'll see that pressure pattern change through the week. This is the meridional

09:02 trend that tells us how much of a change of northerlies or southerly wind directions.

09:08 So blues on this map represent northerlies. Reds represent southerlies and greens and

09:14 whites represent sort of somewhere in between basically. So we started or ending this week

09:20 on northerlies as we've had much of this week. And then we'll start to see that change through

09:25 the next few days through the weekend. And then by the beginning of next week we've got

09:29 those southerlies. You can see that quite strong signal for southerlies to start the

09:33 week. Now in earlier model runs we had those southerlies perhaps lasting longer. You can

09:39 see these are as you go down the columns down the rows those are previous model runs. But

09:43 in more recent model runs we start to see the returns of those blues. So that change

09:47 from the low pressure moving away to the near continent and that high pressure building

09:51 in from the north is a new trend. But it's something that we're gaining confidence on.

09:55 So we're quite likely to see that that set up start to evolve through the week. So a

10:00 bit of a change a couple of changes through the middle part of next week but it will slowly

10:04 start to improve as the week goes on. As I said the temperatures will also slowly start

10:09 to rise. These are the meteorograms. We've got Reading on the top and Edinburgh on the

10:14 bottom. This shows you the maximum and minimum temperatures. Reds the maximum blue is the

10:19 minimum. So cold at the moment. We're well below average really. I'm sure everyone's

10:24 been feeling it both in the north and the south. The trend is quite similar for both

10:29 Reading and both Reading and Edinburgh. As we head towards the start of next week when

10:35 we start to see that southerly flow develop temperatures really pick up to average and

10:40 then above average. So we could see temperatures closer to 20 degrees through at some in some

10:46 southern areas later on next week if we do see some of that sunshine. But I think temperatures

10:51 just will be a bit more pleasant and definitely the nighttime temperatures will be escaping

10:54 the risk of frost that we've had through this week. So that lasts until at least the middle

10:59 of the middle of next week. But then once we start to see that northerly wind direction

11:04 it could start to cool off a little bit towards the weekend. But there's nothing significantly

11:09 cold in the forecast. So I think definitely the last of the significantly cold weather

11:14 after the end of this week before it turns a bit milder into the weekend. So there's

11:21 obviously a bit of detail still to play out for the weekend. Make sure you stay tuned

11:24 for your updates and your full forecast. You can check out your full weekend forecast with

11:29 me on YouTube tomorrow. But that's all for now. Bye bye.

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