This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 09/04/2025. After a prolonged dry and settled spell the weather is going to turn wetter through the weekend and into next week. Whilst there were signs the drier weather would return by the Easter weekend, that now looks less likely. Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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00:00Spare a thought for those who start their Easter holidays this coming weekend.
00:05The weather's set to take a bit of a turn with more rain on the cards compared to what we've seen of late.
00:11Currently, though, we do still have high pressure dominating our story.
00:14So we stick with the settled theme as we go through the rest of Wednesday overnight into Thursday.
00:19Many places having clear skies, so turning a bit chilly, but not everywhere starting Thursday with bright, clear skies.
00:26In fact, across many parts of eastern, southeastern, central parts of England, a lot of cloud here could even be the odd spot of drizzly rain.
00:33But generally, it's a dry story.
00:35And as we go through the day, a lot of this cloud is going to break up.
00:39It's going to lift and burn away.
00:40That being said, some parts of East Anglia, maybe around London and towards Kent as well, here it could actually stay grey through much of the day.
00:49Also a bit of cloud, maybe a few spots of rain affecting the far north of Scotland, Orkney and Shetland in particular.
00:54Otherwise, though, lots of dry, sunny weather.
00:56And again, it's going to feel warm in the sunshine.
00:58In fact, actually, because of a change in our wind direction, some places are going to feel markedly warmer than they have done of late.
01:05With our winds more coming from the west-southwest, it's across eastern parts of Scotland, northeast England, where it's been fairly chilly recently with a good deal of cloud around.
01:14Here, it's going to be several degrees warmer on Thursday than it has been of late.
01:19In fact, if we compare our temperatures for Thursday with Wednesday, and you can see just how much warmer it's going to be across, yes, eastern parts of Scotland, northeast England in particular.
01:30Most places a little bit warmer, but here, some places could be around 10 to 12 degrees warmer than they have been through Wednesday.
01:37With that in mind, we're looking at highs for some places reaching around 22, 23, possibly 24 Celsius.
01:43So, likely to be the warmest day of the year so far.
01:46More fine weather to come as we go through the end of the day on Thursday.
01:49For most, there will be a bit more cloud, some outbreaks of rain pushing into the far north of Scotland as we go through the night.
01:56And across the south of England, there could be some fog patches developing as well.
02:00But otherwise, a lot of dry weather to be had.
02:02And that's the story into Friday as well.
02:05Again, plenty of fine, sunny weather to be had for most of us.
02:09Across the northern half of Scotland, it is going to turn increasingly cloudy, and that's because we have a front pushing its way in.
02:16So, some rain starting to push its way in across parts of Scotland.
02:19And it doesn't look particularly heavy, mostly light and drizzly, but perhaps turning a bit more persistent, and some heavier bursts possible later on.
02:28Now, where we see the sunshine, again, it is going to feel pretty warm.
02:31Temperatures peaking, well, similar to Thursday, really.
02:34So, we're looking at highs around 22, 23, perhaps 24 at a push.
02:38So, again, could be the warmest day of the year so far.
02:41But exactly where we see those highest temperatures, well, that will change compared to Thursday.
02:45So, if, again, we contrast the two days, and this is a comparison between Thursday and Friday, and you can see where we get that cloud coming in across Scotland.
02:53Unsurprisingly, it's a fair bit fresher here.
02:55But elsewhere, particularly across central eastern parts of England, a fair few degrees warmer on Friday than it will be on Thursday.
03:03And so, that's why, yes, again, we're looking at many places, particularly in this neck of the woods, getting into the low 20 Celsius.
03:10Now, let's look towards the weekend.
03:12And behind me here, I have the Met Office global model.
03:15So, this is just one model output.
03:17But it's not actually the most favoured.
03:20But let's go through what it's showing.
03:21It's the frontal system that brings some clouds and rain to the north on Friday.
03:26It does retreat a little bit before pushing back across the UK, and it pushes its way southeastwards, bringing some rain across Scotland, Northern Ireland.
03:34But most places actually having a fine day on Saturday.
03:37Well, bearing in mind, there is some showery rain over France, and there's the potential that could clip us.
03:42But if we follow this model, it looks like it will be a generally dry day.
03:46And in fact, if we then go through Saturday, that front, it does push across the country, but it breaks up, really.
03:51So, not bringing a huge amount of rain.
03:53And then through Sunday, yes, there are some showers coming in from the west, and some of them could be a little bit on the heavy side.
03:59But actually, according to this, there will be a good deal of dry and bright, if not sunny, weather around.
04:06However, like I said, not the most favoured outcome.
04:10If we look at EC, if we look at GFS, they all want to tell us slightly different stories.
04:15And so, now, if we look at our decider output, which compares lots of different model outputs and goes with what's most likely, looking at various different scenarios.
04:24And this is the most likely setup when you compare different model runs for this coming Saturday.
04:31And this has low pressure over the UK, just to the north, actually.
04:35And with that, then, it suggests that there's a reasonable chance that most places will see some wet weather at times.
04:42Doesn't look particularly heavy, but through Saturday, most of us are likely to see a bit of rain coming through.
04:47Worth bearing in mind, this goes with around a 30% chance of this happening.
04:51If we go with the second most likely setup, it actually has a deeper area of low pressure, a bit further north, closer towards Iceland.
04:58But if this comes off towards the south, it looks fairly similar.
05:02But across parts of western Scotland, we could have some heavier rain coming through as we go through Saturday.
05:07And with that, some stronger winds.
05:09I think this paints a little bit of a pessimistic picture.
05:12Maybe it makes it look a bit wetter than it in reality will be.
05:15But nonetheless, we're likely to see a bit of a change as we go through Saturday.
05:19More so, then, by Sunday.
05:21So, notice, this is the most likely scenario.
05:24And it's got around a 79%, almost 80% chance.
05:28So, fairly high confidence for this coming Sunday to be actually relatively unsettled.
05:33That low pressure is somewhere just to the north of the UK.
05:36And with that, then, we're going to have some blustery winds, some heavy rain.
05:40And that maybe could cause some localized impacts.
05:42But it's worth bearing in mind, yes, we could see some relatively high rainfall totals, 20, 25 millimetres, perhaps.
05:50But because it's been so dry recently, in some respects, that could be relatively welcome rain for some people.
05:57You know, there are lots of things going on at the moment.
05:59Pollen levels have been quite high.
06:01We've had wildfires.
06:02And farmers are obviously also, well, not doing that well in some places because of how dry it's been.
06:09So, in many respects, some rain is welcomed.
06:12But when we look at the details, and if we look at ECMWF 24-hour rainfall, all the different members for this coming Sunday,
06:20here are our postage stamps.
06:21And there's relatively good agreement that it's looking pretty wet.
06:25Not all the members want it to be a wet day, but the vast majority of them.
06:29But let's just grab a couple because, yeah, most of them painting a bit of a wet picture for Sunday.
06:34Like I said, not necessarily a total washout.
06:37We're talking 20, 25 millimetres in some western places, but definitely wetter than it has been.
06:42But if we take Member 20, for example, from EC, and actually it paints a drier story for most places.
06:48The wettest weather towards the northwest, drier towards the southeast.
06:52I think it will be wettest towards the northwest because of the position of the low.
06:55But just how much of the rain spreads across the country, some uncertainty.
07:01But most of the members are going for it to spread across most parts.
07:04Not especially heavy, though.
07:06However, if we look at Member 38, and this paints a wetter picture across the country, we could see totals around 50 millimetres.
07:14Now, that kind of level, we would be looking at impacts, a bit of localised flooding at that kind of rate.
07:19But still, it's always worth bearing in mind just how dry it has been recently.
07:24But let's look further ahead.
07:26This is the 10-day trend after all.
07:28And here's the most likely scenario for next Monday, the 14th of April.
07:32And again, we're looking at around 56% chance.
07:34That's relatively high at this kind of lead time for high pressure.
07:38Sorry, low pressure.
07:39Not high pressure.
07:40Low pressure to the north of the UK.
07:42So again, going with the idea of showery rain coming in from the west.
07:45And it's not just the rain that could be a little bit heavy at times.
07:49We also need to factor in there could be some hail, some thunder mixed in with this.
07:53And so again, we could see some impacts as a result.
07:55There'll be some blustery winds.
07:56So a pretty unsettled story.
07:58It's not going to be totally wet.
08:00There will be some drier spells in between, some sunshine at times if those drier spells come in during the daytime.
08:06But it's definitely a marked change to the high pressure that we've had recently.
08:10Going into my birthday, Tuesday the 15th of April, and sticking with that generally unsettled picture,
08:15albeit the low doesn't look as deep.
08:17And so maybe something a little bit less unsettled by then.
08:22And then the low shifting a little bit further south perhaps as we go towards Wednesday.
08:26And similar story for Thursday.
08:28And then as we go towards the Easter weekend, there are some hints of something a bit more settled developing from the west.
08:37Higher pressure building if we go ahead towards Easter Saturday, Easter day.
08:41And then by Easter Monday, yeah, higher pressure coming in from the west.
08:46But you may be saying, Alex, you told us a few days ago that we should see the settled weather returning in time for the Easter weekend.
08:52And that was the story.
08:53This is what it looked like a few days ago.
08:56If we look at our probabilistic pressure trend and if we go back a few days, remember reds highlighting higher pressure more likely, blues lower pressure, then reds again higher pressure more likely.
09:05If we look at previous model runs earlier on in the week, and yes, we were all in agreement, more settled weather to end this week.
09:13Then turning unsettled for a time.
09:15And then by around Thursday, Friday time, it looked like we would see the return to the more settled weather with high pressure building again.
09:22But as we've gone through the past couple of days, that transition back to something more settled, it's been shifted.
09:29It's been delayed.
09:30And so now it looks like it's more, well, goes closer towards Easter Monday, really.
09:35So Easter weekend could still be on the cusp between the more unsettled theme to something a little bit drier.
09:41So still some showery rain pushing through some wet weather at times.
09:44It's worth factoring in that fairly often a 10-day ridge, so a ridge appearing in 10 days' time, often gets shoved a little bit further back.
09:54So it often appears around the 10-day period.
09:56And then the more settled period kind of gets compressed and we see less of it.
10:00But actually, if we look deeper through into April, I think once we do get this high pressure building again, it should last for a little while.
10:07We just need to wait a little bit longer for it to return.
10:10Then the last thing that I wanted to show you are our temperatures.
10:13Here are our meteograms for our capital cities, which give a similar story, really, all four of them.
10:18These come from ECMWF.
10:19And, yes, it shows that temperatures were a fair few degrees above average for the next few days.
10:25And then they just dropped down close to average, really, both by day and by night for the next, well, the rest of the two-week period.
10:32And, well, so it's worth noting there's not a huge amount of spread.
10:36So although there's a bit of uncertainty as to how changeable, unsettled it might be at times, we can be in fairly good agreement that temperatures after the warmer spell that we're going to have through the next few days, they're going to be near normal.
10:48Thanks so much for watching.
10:51Whatever your plans are through the next, well, 10 days or so, and as we head towards Easter, I hope you have a good one.
10:55And I hope the more unsettled theme doesn't scupper anything for you.
10:59I'll see you again soon.
11:00Bye-bye.
11:01Bye-bye.