State of the Union: Enlargement nostalgia and new challenges in the EU
This edition of State of the Union focuses on the enlargement "Big Bang" in 2004, speculation about new political alliances after the elections and sizeable cracks in the block of far-right parties.
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00:00Hello and welcome to State of the Union, I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.
00:09Twenty years ago this week, the European Union saw the biggest enlargement round ever.
00:15On May the 1st, 2004, ten states simultaneously joined the bloc, seven of them from beyond
00:21the former Iron Curtain.
00:23Some called it the Big Bang.
00:25In a rather mute celebration, the European institutions in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg
00:30were lit up for the occasion this week.
00:32I'd love to show you pictures of popular joy, but there weren't any.
00:37Instead, in a very business-like manner, the President of the Council advocated more members.
00:44Enlargement is vital for the future of the EU because we thought enlargement is in fact
00:48a risk for a new Iron Curtain and this would be extremely dangerous if you would have an
00:54unstable neighborhood with a lack of prosperity, a lack of economic development.
01:00Well, whether countries like Serbia, Georgia or Ukraine will get a seat at the Brussels
01:05table any time soon is doubtful.
01:09In the ongoing election campaign for the European Parliament, enlargement is not a hot topic,
01:14to put it mildly.
01:16Speaking of the campaign, this week people started speculating about a new political
01:21alliance previously unheard of, namely a coalition of center-right and far-right parties.
01:28When asked about it during a debate, the Commission President and center-right candidate had this
01:33to say.
01:34It depends very much on how the composition of the Parliament is and who is in what group.
01:41This fits well with a statement by the far-right Prime Minister of Italy, who would love to
01:46team up with von der Leyen's European People's Party.
02:01Meloni's party leads the polls in her country and she aims to replicate the scheme at power
02:07in Italy, an alliance of EPP and far-right groups, ECR and Identity and Democracy.
02:15Polls suggest that the next European Parliament will shift to the far-right, as nationalist
02:19and populist parties seem to be gaining ground.
02:23Some observers already predict a legislative agenda paralyzed by a solid right-wing bloc.
02:28Well, a recent analysis shows that there are a lot of cracks in this bloc.
02:35Joining me now is Pavel Serka, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign
02:39Relations and the lead analyst on European public opinion.
02:43Welcome to the program.
02:44Hello, thanks for having me.
02:47So your recent polling suggests deep divisions between Europe's far-right parties.
02:53How for example does this play out when it comes to support for Ukraine?
02:58This is one of the areas where the parties of the far-right will struggle to agree.
03:05Not just far-right, Euro-skeptics as well.
03:07So obviously there are some parties like the Alternative for Deutschland or Gerd Wilder's
03:14party in the Netherlands who are much more on the side of no longer supporting Ukraine
03:21and seeing the European current support as warmongering.
03:27But there are parties, of course, like Polish Law and Justice, which are strongly supportive
03:33of Ukraine.
03:34And even in Italy, Giorgio Meloni has shown to be a strong transatlanticist and a reliable
03:41supporter of a European line of support for Ukraine.
03:46What about a hypothetical exit from the EU?
03:49Isn't that a pet project that all nationalist parties are plotting?
03:53It's no longer that fashionable in Europe and many of the far-right or anti-European
04:01or Euro-skeptic parties have chosen right now to focus on repairing Europe from inside
04:09rather than leaving the EU.
04:11We're just weeks away from election day.
04:15What would be a strategy to counter the far-right in the election campaign?
04:20The problem I see right now is that many of the parties of the far-right have the electorates,
04:27which are strongly mobilized.
04:29So their voters believe that these are important elections and they largely want to go and
04:36vote, whereas the electorates of the pro-European side are often quite demobilized, as if people
04:44didn't understand what are the stakes of this election, why should it matter.
04:48So my main recommendation for the leaders of pro-European parties is to express quite
04:56clearly to their voters why those elections are important.
05:01I want to ask you about these voters of far-right parties.
05:04You mentioned them.
05:05Can they actually be swayed?
05:07Can they still be swayed?
05:09Rarely.
05:10I think that the question is mostly about whether they will be strongly mobilized or
05:16whether some of them could stay at home if the pro-European side reminds the voters about
05:22various risks that voting for AfD in Germany, Marine Le Pen in France, or Kaczynski in Poland
05:30bring, then perhaps some of the people who are currently saying, yes, I would like to
05:35vote for those parties, maybe they will think twice.
05:39All right.
05:40Paweł Zyrka, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
05:44Thank you so much for coming on the show today.
05:47Thanks again.
05:50We're now a week away from one of the biggest European events of the year.
05:54I'm not talking about an election, but the European Song Contest hosted by the Swedish
05:59city of Malmö.
06:01While technical and artistic preparations are well underway, the event is causing major
06:06headaches for the Swedish security authorities.
06:09In a 23-page report, most of it classified, law enforcement summarizes serious threats
06:15to the competition, like cyber attacks, denial of service attacks, or civil unrest.
06:23Authorities are also coping with the fact that Sweden is a prime target for violent
06:27Islamist terrorist organizations.
06:29In addition, major protests against Israel's participation in the contest are expected.
06:36The Swedish police believes they are prepared for all kinds of scenarios.
06:41They hope the European Song Contest proceeds smoothly.
06:45I guess they also want Sweden not to win this time, so that someone else can host the
06:50event next year.
06:53That's it for this edition.
06:54I'm Stefan Grober.
06:55Thank you for watching.
06:57Have an excellent week.