Enlargement is often referred to as the EU’s most effective foreign policy, but since its biggest wave of new members joined in 2004, the process has largely stalled.
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00:00Enlargement is often referred to as the EU's most effective foreign policy, but since its
00:14biggest wave of new members joined in in 2004, the process has largely stopped.
00:20At Davos, I sat down with the Prime Ministers of Croatia and Montenegro, also the Foreign
00:25Minister of Ukraine and the EU's Enlargement Commissioner, to discuss and debate how the
00:32EU can revitalise its enlargement process.
00:36Commissioner, I want to ask you the question first.
00:42Russia's invasion of Ukraine has injected a renewed sense of urgency when it comes to
00:46the EU accession talks, and EU leaders are more frequently meeting with seven countries
00:51that are still waiting at the gate.
00:53Some candidates' accession bids have been stalled for well over a decade, despite the
00:58process and requirements for EU membership remaining the same.
01:03What has changed in the EU that is making accession so difficult as you're starting
01:08to take care of this portfolio now?
01:10After 10 countries joined in 2004, and later Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia, the last in
01:162013, the economic and geopolitics have changed.
01:23And at that time, it was seen that it is getting more important to go inside or to take care
01:31about the deepening of the European Union, in the sense of we'll be able to answer to
01:38those challenges which emerged at that time.
01:41This is one point.
01:42The second point is also the question of the rule of law.
01:46We have some countries inside the European Union who are not following the rule of law,
01:52and with the many member states, we have seen somehow fear that this could harm the European
02:00Union, in the sense of we shouldn't let in no country who is really not 100% prepared
02:07to enter, not only on the economic part.
02:10We have been talking, in my opinion, much too much about the economic part of the enlargement
02:15process, less about the values, and less about the rules of law.
02:20Prime Minister, when Croatia joined the EU in 2013, as the 28th member state, it became
02:27the second nation to do it on its own after Greece, which was 1981.
02:31So that was a very specific case for your country.
02:35And there was this kind of enlargement fatigue, largely a result of a slow integration process
02:40for new members, which meant also there were kind of more demands and requirements of Croatia
02:46when you joined the European Union.
02:48How has this heightened level of scrutiny impacted the country now that you have joined
02:53also the Schengen area and the Eurozone?
02:55Well, Croatia joined, as you rightly put it, on the 1st of July 2013, almost 10 years after
03:01the big enlargement.
03:03What was good for us, we joined when we were prepared.
03:07We, especially in my first government, decided to go into the deeper integration we managed,
03:13which is the Eurozone, the Schengen area, the European Stability Mechanism.
03:17And the benefits are there.
03:19When we started nine years ago, my first government, we were at 62% of the average development
03:25of the European Union.
03:26Now we are at 78%.
03:28By the time we end the third government, we'll be at 82%.
03:30That means that the economic impact and the developmental impact, infrastructure, including
03:36also values, the rule of law and everything that goes with it, were highly appreciated
03:40by the Croatian citizens and the society.
03:44And the country looks very different now, I would say much better.
03:47Somehow Montenegro can be considered as the furthest along in the accession process.
03:53How did you feel this change, as Prime Minister said, you know, when the arms were first opened,
03:59but it's a bit different now for Montenegro, for Ukraine.
04:03But also what areas of progress or closer cooperation with the EU remain?
04:07You've just had the Commissioner visiting Montenegro as well, just a couple of days
04:11ago, right, before we're meeting here at Davos.
04:14First of all, I don't think that EU accession process is actually competition.
04:19You know, like we are all trying to fulfill the basic conditions that EU is requiring
04:25for our own good.
04:27You know, it's not because of the EU that we are doing all of these requirements, it's
04:30for ourselves to develop better, to be better market economies, to have rule of law, to
04:36have more fair society, to have more democratic institutions.
04:40So this is what we are trying to build.
04:42We're trying to build a system.
04:43It's especially difficult if you are a country like Montenegro.
04:47You know, in ex-Yugoslavia, some of you might know that Montenegro was like a smallest republic
04:53and very few, if any, institutions were based out of Podgorica.
04:59Most of them are based out of Belgrade, some of them are based out of Zagreb, a bit maybe
05:04in Ljubljana, but, you know, Podgorica, literally nothing.
05:07So can you imagine 2006, we had to build basically institutions almost from municipal level.
05:14Almost from municipal level.
05:15So this was like a big, big step forward for us in last 18 years.
05:19So we are like, by Montenegrin law, we are adults now.
05:23So we are hoping that we get adult treatment as well.
05:28Ukraine is also on its way to the European Union, and you've heard some of the notions here.
05:35Now, your accession negotiations officially opened on the 25th of June 2024.
05:41Considering that the process is generally considered to be slow and meticulous,
05:46what can we realistically expect in terms of some sort of accelerated Ukrainian candidacy?
05:52Why I say that is not about fast-tracking it one-way street.
05:56It's about Ukraine trying to, every time to produce, to get their progress quicker and quicker.
06:02Thanks a lot for your question.
06:05In Ukraine, more than 90% of our people support Ukrainian EU membership.
06:11By the way, that's another part of Russian brutal aggression.
06:16Before the full-scale aggression, a little bit more than 50% of our population supported
06:24EU accession.
06:26On the fourth day of this brutal aggression, we applied to EU to become a member of EU.
06:34In a half a year, we got the status of candidate.
06:40It means that we need such a speed now because of geopolitical reality.
06:46And it was also our response to this brutality, to these Russian atrocities, to protect our values.
06:53It was our strategic choice.
06:56And I would also, I would like to remind that EU, when it was founded after the war,
07:04it was not only about trade.
07:06It was also about to defeat war, to defeat thinking of war, of this war politics,
07:15to defeat the Putins of that time, to defeat fascism, Nazism.
07:22And regretfully, these diseases returned back to Europe.
07:26And now we need to defeat this Russian aggression.
07:29We must achieve long-lasting, long-lasting, just comprehensive peace because security
07:38of Europe and security of Ukraine is indivisible.
07:42And it is not a favor for us on our way to become a EU member because we will contribute
07:52in the strength of EU.
07:53We will contribute in the competitive advantages of EU with our, for example, defense industries,
08:00with our technologies, with our security experience.
08:06And probably it will be the best investment for EU.
08:09If we are speaking about cost, we have such an evaluation, the cost will be approximately
08:170.17 of the EU GDP if we are speaking about the enlargement of nine countries.
08:26Right.
08:27These points that we've just heard from the two candidate countries regarding how they
08:31have to overcome the obstacles within the EU of some of the member states who are less
08:36willing on continuing the enlargement, but do they, do these existing countries then
08:42share the same values that are actually demanded of the candidates?
08:48First of all, we have to bear in mind that every enlargement process is a politically
08:53driven process.
08:54But what I would like to note that everybody is realistic because sense of realism is the
08:58most important notion in the process of enlargement is that the forgotten Copenhagen, the fourth
09:06Copenhagen criteria of 1993, which is so-called the absorption capacity of the European Union,
09:13has come back.
09:15In the absorption capacity translated into a common language means what is the budgetary
09:21cost of enlargement, what will be the effect of new members on the play of contributor
09:29countries and beneficiary countries, what will be the impact on the policies, cohesion,
09:35culture, any policy that you can imagine?
09:38I'm sure that you've heard some, lots of criticism regarding whether things are being fast-tracked
09:44when it comes to Ukraine compared to some of the other countries that have been waiting
09:48for longer and then applying longer and so on.
09:52What's your take on that?
09:53Because this is an important issue to address.
09:55We love it.
09:56You know, we want to be even faster.
09:59We don't mind at all.
10:00Like for us, it's totally okay.
10:02It's just, obviously, don't forget us as well.
10:04I mean, in the meantime, but, you know, progression of Ukraine is extremely welcome and we, as
10:11I already said, we feel Ukraine is part of the wider region and we feel we have common
10:17destiny and we want to see Ukraine progress as fast as possible.
10:20But I would say that we should still keep some level of meritocracy and as in like meritocratic
10:29approach.
10:30So I think Montenegro has done a lot and we will do even more.
10:35So our plan is extremely ambitious.
10:36We want in two years, i.e. by end of 26, to fully close all the chapters, to be fully
10:42ready for EU.
10:43So we're hoping that EU can see that, can recognize the efforts, can recognize the spirit
10:50that we are projecting and that they will accept us and they will, you know, like that
10:58by end of 26, we close all the chapters, but in 28, we become 28th member state.
11:04The race is the race.
11:05I think this is healthy, you know, because it is based on the merit-based principle,
11:11meaning, you know, it's not about timing, you know, sometimes I hear, but, you know,
11:15the Western Balkan states, they wait for so long.
11:18It is not about how long they are waiting.
11:20It is how much they are able to deliver and about their political will.
11:25And this has changed.
11:27So if they do what they have to do, you know, we say negotiations, mainly it is take it
11:32or leave it.
11:33Sorry that I say it so bluntly.
11:35So you have no possibility to now negotiate on some important basic value in the EU.
11:45Well, that's all we have time for.
11:47Unfortunately, thank you so much.
11:48There is a lot of food for thought, lots of work for everybody, for the Commissioner,
11:51for the member states, for the candidates.
11:53Thank you very much and thank you for watching.