Tanks are the apex predator on Ukraine's battlefields, with modern Western tanks facing off against Soviet-designed relics. But which country has the power?
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00:00The tank is the apex predator of ground warfare, and both Russia and Ukraine have
00:06had significant losses. It can cost millions of dollars to build
00:11replacements. So what do these losses mean for the war, and which country is
00:16ahead? We're going to break down the balance of power. I'm Sam Feldman, I'm a
00:20defense editor with Business Insider, and I'm a U.S. Navy veteran.
00:27Tanks aren't decisive, but they're an important part of the positional warfare,
00:32and they're a critical weapon to Ukraine to try to break the Russian momentum.
00:36These are premier fighting vehicles that we're seeing in action on the
00:41battlefields of Ukraine. We're learning a lot about the tank forces and warfare
00:45against pretty pervasive threats to tanks. Russia is using its tanks primarily
00:51to support foot soldiers who are advancing, to counter Ukrainian drives,
00:56and to protect vehicle movements. Russia is one of the largest tank forces in the
01:02world, and Russia has been on attack. The other advantage Russia has is a
01:07political willingness to sacrifice hundreds of vehicles and tens of
01:12thousands of troops to try to attain battlefield victories. Russia has lost a
01:17lot of tanks. By the count of open-source researchers at Oryx, they've lost 1,800
01:25destroyed, 530 captured, and then 270 abandoned. Russia has thousands more tanks
01:33upon which it can draw, and it can make operational older or reserve tanks as
01:38the war continues. So Russia is using pretty much everything it's got. The bulk
01:43of that is the T-80s and the T-72s. Those are Cold War-era Soviet-made tanks that
01:50Russia has in really large numbers. There is some usage of the more modern T-90s,
01:57and Russia is also, to augment its numbers and replace its heavy losses, has
02:02dipped into its deep storage and is taking out T-55s and T-54s. Those are
02:08tanks that were built in the days after World War II. The T-55s and T-54s, those
02:14are essentially obsolete on a modern battlefield. Russia has not deployed its
02:18T-14 Armata tank, which is a tank that Russian media has hyped up quite a bit.
02:23It has not been involved in any meaningful combat operations in Ukraine.
02:27The T-90M is the most advanced tank that Russia has deployed to the
02:33battlefields of Ukraine. It has thermal sights, a computerized fire control system,
02:37and jammers. It also, like many other tanks, Russian tanks and Western tanks, it
02:42has explosive reactive armor. It costs about the ruble equivalent of 4.5
02:49million dollars. Ukraine has received donated tanks from Western partners. So
02:56those tanks are the UK-made Challenger 2, the German-made Leopard tank, and the
03:03American M1 Abrams. Those are all very modern tanks. One issue with them is
03:09essentially that Ukraine doesn't have enough. Ukraine has only been donated
03:15about 31 M1 Abrams. The M1 Abrams is a premier tank designed to destroy Soviet
03:21and Russian-made tanks, and my guess would be the Ukrainians wish they had
03:25more. They could certainly use them. The M1 Abrams, that is a main battle tank of
03:30the United States. It has computerized fire control software. It has depleted
03:36uranium rounds that are designed to shatter enemy armor, and it was built
03:40specifically for tank-on-tank battles. The M1 Abrams has a high top speed. It
03:47has a gas turbine engine that creates a lot of power. It is a top tank, and yet it
03:52is also facing the same threats that have bogged down Russian and other
03:57Western-made tanks. The challenges with the M1 Abrams is that it requires a lot
04:02of maintenance. Tanks are a fearsome weapon that carries a psychological
04:07effect on the defender. Ukraine has shown that the Russian tank forces are hardly
04:12the unstoppable force that many had feared before the war's outbreak.
04:19Russian tanks are less survivable than Western-made tanks. Western-made tanks
04:25are better designed to protect the crew, and when they sustain a direct hit, it's
04:31more frequent that a Western tank will be able to be towed and then repaired.
04:36You would not find me in any Russian tank. The risks of all Soviet-designed
04:42vehicles to the crew are really high. The Soviet-made tanks often become total
04:47losses and crew killers when they're hit. A good example that's indicative of this
04:52is the jack-in-the-box effect. The T-72 has a design flaw where the crew
04:57essentially sits on top of ammunition storage for the tank's shells, and that
05:02means that a blast into this space is going to potentially cook off the
05:07stored ammunition inside the tank. The top turret will basically blow off from
05:14this massive explosion of all the tank's ammunition. That will kill the crew, and
05:19that'll make the tank a total loss.
05:23The Soviet doctrine of fighting informs both the institutional approaches of
05:31the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces. Soviet doctrine
05:36really emphasizes using mass firepower to make enemy positions untenable, and
05:43then to send forward armor and infantry to seize those positions from the
05:48remnants of defenders that held them. That's very different than maneuver
05:52warfare. Maneuver warfare is a simultaneous use of firepower from the
05:58ground and from the air, while infantry and armor are on the move. When you think
06:04about the sides, Ukraine is not willing to give up territory. It is trying to
06:09regain territory. It views the territory upon which it's fighting and upon which
06:14Russia holds as its rightful territory seized by force and marred by Russian
06:20invaders. And so the Ukrainians are not willing to cede territory for any type
06:25of maneuver warfare. And to Russians, a territory matters as well. Every inch of
06:31advance is important to the Russians. So the Russians are very intent on taking
06:36territory, whatever the damage to that territory and whatever the losses to
06:41their own forces. And the Russians are able to sustain greater losses and have
06:47a willingness to sacrifice people for those advances. Ukraine is not willing to
06:55do human wave attacks. The Russian human wave attacks have overwhelmed prepared
07:00Ukrainian defenses. They've come at a cost of tens of thousands of people and
07:05hundreds, if not thousands, of fighting vehicles. So these are brute force
07:11tactics that Ukraine and really the West are not willing to employ. Taking out
07:18tanks is a very important part of Ukraine holding its defenses. Tanks can
07:22bring mobile firepower against prepared defensive points. And so destroying a
07:28tank before it's able to really threaten foot soldiers and some of their prepared
07:32defenses in trench lines or in buildings is essential to holding those lines.
07:37Tanks are a weapon of maneuver warfare and the Ukraine war is essentially
07:44positional. When tanks have tried to pass through areas, they're hitting these
07:49pervasive threats of the prepared defenses, of enemy attack airplanes, of
07:55mines, drones, artillery, and anti-tank guided missiles. All of that is bogging
08:04them down, preventing them from what they're best at, massing fire through a
08:08combination of speed and the ability to cross nearly any type of terrain. But if
08:14they can't cross that terrain without losing their tracks or coming under
08:18sustained attack, then their power on the battlefield has been effectively checked.
08:23To really understand the artillery threat, we have to understand the
08:27battlefield the tank is facing. This is a very dangerous battlefield for any tank.
08:32Let's consider the Russian prepared defenses that a Ukrainian tank would
08:36potentially face. First, there's a minefield, a very heavily laid minefield
08:42with hidden bombs that may run kilometers in depth. Then there are
08:49anti-tank obstacles like upturned pyramids that try to limit tanks
08:55movement. There are vehicle dishes which are almost like a moat through which a
09:00tank or an armored vehicle can't cross without some type of bridging equipment
09:04or without filling in part of this moat. And then there are the defensive lines
09:09where ground troops are both spotting movement of approaching forces and
09:15they'll have machine gun positions, they'll have anti-tank guided missile
09:19positions. All of this then is covered by artillery and covered by potentially
09:26enemy attack helicopters. Anti-tank missiles are also an incredibly
09:30important threat that has become much more widespread in Ukraine. An anti-tank
09:35guided missile is a much more advanced system than say an RPG, a rocket-propelled
09:40grenade, that could threaten a tank but is guided by the fire who often is
09:45afraid for their life. An anti-tank guided missile is a fire-and-forget
09:49system. A soldier who is trained on one doesn't take a lot of training to fire
09:54one of these. The soldier who's carrying one has to leave cover for, you know,
09:59maybe two or three seconds for the missile to acquire a enemy armor and
10:04then can fire it and can go back to hiding. And the missile's guidance system
10:09will take care of the rest. The anti-tank missiles are designed to penetrate tank
10:14armor and there's been a proliferation of them on the battlefield so they're
10:18more difficult to stop. They are more difficult to jam because there's a
10:22variety of different types on the battlefield and they are also in such
10:26volume that the tank's ability to use its explosive reactive armor becomes
10:32more limited with repeated strikes. Ukraine has a variety of anti-tank
10:37guided missiles which have all seen combat use. So a couple systems, NLAWS,
10:43Javelin, and the Ukrainian-made Stugna-Ps. Both sides are adapting their
10:50armored vehicles for the pretty pervasive threat of drones. And so one
10:57way this is manifesting itself are these cope cages. It's like a welded netting
11:02that goes around the tank. This is designed to make it more tricky to land
11:07an exploding drone right on the tank's shell and blast inwards. These cages, if
11:13you will, kind of look like mosquito nets to try to keep the explosion a little
11:18bit further from the tank's hull. The other side of that is that drone pilots
11:23are becoming more skilled at getting around these and attacking vulnerable
11:26points.
11:29Tanks are really expensive, hard to make weapons. A M1 Abrams costs in the
11:36neighborhood of five million dollars. A Russian T-90 costs also around the same
11:41amount in the ruble equivalent. So these are expensive systems to lose. There's
11:46both the economic cost, there's the three to four crew killed, and then
11:51there's the psychological effect of your enemy seeing a chink in your armor.
11:54Ukraine is very dependent on Western donations for its tank force. It can
12:00repair its Russian-made tanks to some degree, and it's relying on support from
12:06the US, UK, and Germany to replace its damaged tanks in Ukraine. Other countries
12:12also have donated their weapons, but Ukraine doesn't have extensive tank
12:17production needed by this war, and so Ukraine is very dependent on its Western
12:21partners for the supports to repair tanks and for new tanks. The US has given
12:2731 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. If you factor in the ammunition and parts
12:33support for the M1 Abrams, it's likely north of 200 million dollars in support
12:39that the US has provided in the M1 Abrams tanks. US officials estimate that
12:45the war has already cost Russia at least 200 billion dollars in military spending,
12:51and in its latest budget, Russia has signaled it's going to spend roughly six
12:57percent of its GDP on its military. That's likely the lower bound of how
13:02much real spending Russia is being forced to do on its military as the war
13:08in Ukraine continues. We are almost certainly going to see continued heavy
13:15tank losses on the part of Russia. The months-long battle to capture the
13:21strategic city of Avdiivka is indicative of the staggering losses that Russia is
13:28sustaining. The capture came at a cost to Russian armor. 350 tanks, 750 armored
13:35vehicles, and 46,000 troops killed or injured. Russia is making every
13:41indication that it's going to continue to try to seize territory from Ukraine,
13:45and that's exposing its tanks and its armored vehicles to all these pervasive
13:49threats on the battlefield. Russia can continue to afford to lose vehicles at
13:55this heavy clip. Russia is producing more tanks, and it has extensive tank reserves
14:01that it can pull out to augment its tank losses. The experts at the International
14:07Institute of Strategic Studies believe that Russia can continue to lose tanks
14:11and armored vehicles at this rate for two to three years.
14:17The balance of power on the battlefields of Ukraine must go to the Russian tanks.
14:23Russia simply has more tanks and is using brute force tactics that are causing them
14:29to lose their tanks in droves. But only Russia has this massive firepower it can
14:35mass, and compared to Ukraine's tanks, even with more advanced tanks, the
14:39advanced tanks face the same threats that the lesser advanced tanks, like the T-72
14:45that both sides use, face. And so this war does not play to the strengths of the
14:50tank, but tanks are useful to Russia to try to take territory using maximum force
14:57and firepower as Russia is doing. Tanks and artillery and drones are critical to
15:02Ukraine to try to break the momentum of Russia's ground forces and the tanks
15:06that enable their forward movement.