"We should not expect that Raisi's death will bring about change" in Iran, expert says
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00:00 We can speak now to Henry Barki, who is a professor of international relations at Lehigh
00:04 University in Pennsylvania.
00:05 Thank you very much indeed for joining us, Professor.
00:08 Reissi was of course a protégé of the Ayatollah, some saying he might one day have replaced
00:15 him.
00:16 Just tell us a bit more about what kind of a leader he was.
00:18 Well he was a hardliner and yes he was the protégé of the leader and was probably going
00:26 to become the new leader because Khamenei, who is the supreme leader, is 85 years old.
00:34 And so this was part of the transition process.
00:38 And it's going to be interesting to see what happens now because I don't think neither
00:43 the leader nor the leadership in general in Iran was ready for such an event because it
00:51 puts everything up, creates a great deal of uncertainty.
00:56 Yeah, so basically he leaves a pretty significant void in the Iranian political system, as does
01:03 the departure of the foreign minister as well.
01:07 Iran's under a lot of pressure, both domestically and internationally, isn't it?
01:10 I'm just wondering where you think this latest series of circumstances leaves the leadership
01:15 a bit more vulnerable?
01:17 I don't necessarily think that in the immediate future it will be more vulnerable.
01:23 In a way, the death of Raisi creates a space here where people will be waiting to see what
01:31 happens next because as you said in your introduction, there'll be elections on June 28th, so you
01:38 will see people running for the presidency and obviously whoever wins the presidency
01:44 will have the upper hand in replacing the supreme leader.
01:50 So I think there's now this period of expectation, of uncertainty, but that will help the regime
01:58 maybe a little bit consolidate.
01:59 The problem for the regime is, I suspect, is divisions within the leadership because
02:07 there are hardliners and there are even harder hardliners because all the ones who were softer,
02:13 who were reformists like the previous president, they've all been sidelined.
02:18 And what you do have now is really a struggle between, among the hardliners and the revolutionary
02:25 guards who are obviously the most important institution today in Iran after the supreme
02:32 leader.
02:33 And look, there is one, take one possible scenario, and that is that the son of the
02:42 supreme leader is maybe a candidate for the presidency, right?
02:48 And this creates a very bizarre situation because it's almost like a loyalty where the
02:55 son of the leader might be in a position to replace the leader.
02:59 So all of these things are going to create a conflict within Iran.
03:06 But as far as the outside world is concerned, what you will see is people waiting to see
03:13 what will happen for the dust to settle, so to say.
03:17 Yeah, it sounds like they've got some big decisions to make during these next days and
03:22 weeks.
03:23 And one of the things we always talk about when we talk about Iran with all our guests
03:26 is the disconnect between the leadership and this very young, progressive population that
03:32 increasingly feels detached from them.
03:35 But what you're describing is the hardliners and the harder hardliners makes it sound as
03:39 though there's absolutely no willingness or no likelihood of any sort of an interface
03:45 leader, no moderates waiting in the wings.
03:49 That's true.
03:50 Look, one of the telltale signs of this unhappiness is that you've had very low turnouts in elections
03:59 recently.
04:01 And even Raisi was elected with a very small participation rate, which means that people
04:08 are not really saying- the Iranian people don't really want to participate in the system.
04:15 So yes, the regime is more in trouble, I would say, at home than it is abroad.
04:22 Now, where the outside world is a factor, of course, is with the sanctions, because
04:28 the sanctions do constrain the regime and makes it difficult for the regime to raise
04:35 money from oil sales or other forms of exports.
04:40 So there is pressure from people who are tired of this revolutionary regime.
04:50 Remember, the regime came to power in 1979.
04:54 And for a large number of people who were born after 1979, all they have known is Ayatollah
05:03 Khamenei and Ayatollah Khamenei as two leaders, two old men who have run the country.
05:09 And there's a way in which the Iranian people are far more educated and far more, shall
05:15 we say, integrated with the rest of the world than people realize.
05:20 And that won't change.
05:22 But there is no easy way to achieve change at the moment, because the regime does repress,
05:31 as we saw the last few years, rather violently.
05:35 Yeah, and I mean, just looking at the pictures of the leadership there, as you've been talking,
05:40 I mean, they're all fairly elderly.
05:43 They're all men with white beards and white hair.
05:46 I mean, they really, there really is a mismatch, isn't there, between the people running the
05:50 country and the people being governed.
05:54 I mean, do you think there's an opportunity perhaps now for the country to identify someone
06:00 new as a leadership?
06:02 Is there any appetite for something new and fresh and perhaps someone that might be a
06:06 little bit more likely to form some sort of a rapprochement with the West?
06:11 I think that's very unlikely.
06:12 I mean, what you see is, as I said, President Rouhani, who was the predecessor to Raisi,
06:18 has been sidelined.
06:20 All the, shall we say, the reformers have been sidelined.
06:24 They don't participate in any of the institutions of, like the Assembly of Experts, who will
06:30 ultimately make the decision as to who replaces Ayatollah Khamenei when he passes from the
06:35 scene.
06:36 So they are nowhere to be seen.
06:40 And look, the other thing to remember about this is not only do you have an old leadership,
06:46 but you have a male leadership.
06:47 I mean, this is the 21st century.
06:49 I mean, there's a, half of the population of Iran has really no representation and no
06:55 say, the women have no say in what's happening.
07:00 So I think change will come in Iran.
07:02 It will come from inside, ultimately, but it will be difficult and it will take some
07:10 time.
07:11 We should not expect that this change with Raisi's death will necessarily bring about
07:19 change.
07:20 Now, it is possible that the regime may make a mistake by choosing somebody, a real, real
07:26 hardliner or maybe, as I said, the son of the supreme leader, and that may trigger a
07:33 backlash.
07:34 But, and I say may, because we don't really know these things.
07:38 I mean, it's very difficult to tell.
07:40 Okay.
07:41 Well, we'll obviously be keeping a very close eye on what happens between now and the 28th
07:45 of June when those elections are held in Iran.
07:47 We're going to have to leave it there.
07:48 Thank you very much for taking the time to speak to us, Professor Amir Barkhi at Lehigh
07:52 University in the US.
07:53 Thank you.
07:53 [BLANK_AUDIO]