Aaron Judge Leads MLB Home Run Race: An Insider's Take
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00:00Aaron Judge in another home run last night. So he's got 18. And on FanDuel, he's the favorite to lead the league in home runs. So Matt, once again, thanks for coming on the show. Isn't it sort of incredible how, if we would have done this back in April, there's no chance Judge would have been favored to win the home run title? And baseball is such a long season that it almost feels like until you get to August or September, nothing is definite.
00:28Yeah, things could change in a hurry, definitely. Because not only do you have guys get on these hot streaks and catch fire and move up these leaderboards, but you also have guys get hurt. You have guys obviously go on cold streets as well. It just happens. Some of it's a function of who you're playing, where you're playing games and other. It's just a function of guys who get locked in, guys who get in the zone.
00:52And we all know Aaron Judge is one of those guys who gets locked in and gets in the zone. So in the long run, there's no surprise. You're right. A month ago, he wouldn't have been nearly this high, but I'm not surprised he's here right now.
01:05Yeah, it's plus 165 over on the Fandul Sportsbook. Maybe it's even more surprising that Gunnar Henderson, who's been fantastic, is number two at plus 550. Matt, do you think that there's anyone here that could potentially dethrone Judge? And I guess it's kind of fair to say, I know that Yankee fans don't want to hear this, it's fair to say that Judge has had some injury issues in the past, and if he was to miss any time, somebody else could easily surpass him. Do you like anybody else on this list here?
01:31Yeah, I mean, I think Henderson has a real shot. The problem is where he is right now. I don't know if he provides a lot of value. But the thing I really like about him, when you look inside of his splits a little bit, he's hitting righties for homers, he's hitting homers against lefties, he's hitting them at home, he's hitting them on the road, like he's kind of doing it everywhere. He's not really, you know, reliant might not be the right word, but he doesn't just do it one place or against just one type of pitcher.
01:59I do think Soto's interesting. And I think Kyle Tucker, I mean, he's right there right now. I like the part he plays in, you know, he's not quite as good against lefties, of course, but he can still hit home runs against anyone too. And I think he's sort of interesting again, not great value. I think if you really want to go for that value, Soto offers the most of the guys you have on the board right now, or just maybe in general.
02:24I think there's probably a lot of bets still coming in on Shohei Otani, of course, and we know he can catch fire in a hurry. And he's not too far off the leaders, but he's got a little bit of an uphill climb. And I do think you got to worry about him a little bit with injuries as well. So I'm not sure he's a great value bet.
02:40But of those guys that were on that board, I think Soto provides the most value for sure, because he's another guy who can get hot in a hurry. Another guy who's at a park, tailor made for him to hit homers. And I think he can do it in a heartbeat. You know, he's got to stay healthy too. But I think there'll be opportunities there for him to move up that board in a hurry.