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00:00It is time to hit it. It's time for the Daily Basis.
00:07Hey, at least I still have fun with that. Yesterday, Craig
00:12opener of the midweek set inside Yankee Stadium between
00:15the Reds and the pinstripes. It was since he getting on board
00:19early and often the Yankees tried to rally but were held
00:23off a five to four victory for the Reds in the opener and
00:28really the story was another bad outing for Luis Hill who
00:33was the American League Rookie of the Year favorite maybe
00:35an AL Cy Young contender at the end of May, but since June
00:41first six starts a 684 ERA 16 earned runs given up in his
00:47last three starts here for New York. You put that in comparison
00:53to his run in May a perfect 6-0 record with a sub one ERA
00:57at 0.70. What's the issue been for heel?
01:03Yeah, I mean look you can call it the rookie wall. I mean,
01:06I think that's in play in Managa's going through the same
01:08thing or went through the same thing with the Cubs. You also
01:11look at heel and his workload, you know, he's going to surpass
01:15all innings limits that he's had previously too. So I would
01:19guess at some point this turns back in the right direction
01:22for him, but it just stands to reason that it's just extremely
01:27hard to count on a young pitcher like this who just doesn't
01:31have a lot of innings behind him over the course of his career
01:34in August and September. So, you know, that's that's the positive
01:37thing for the Yankees that he'll got him to this point.
01:39I mean look the Yankees a year ago or not where they were
01:43right now. So I think that you look at heel and you shake his
01:46hand and I guess you pat him on the back and say hey great
01:49job, but there certainly is a chance. He's just not the same
01:53guy in the second half of the season. He's a young pitcher
01:56teams get better advanced scouting is very good things change,
02:00you know, maybe maybe he is good in the second half of the
02:03season, but I just don't see him been throwing 180 innings
02:06this year. And you know, so certainly some change is going
02:08to have to happen with him.
02:10Yeah, they would love to see him regain that form that he
02:12had earlier in the season. We'll see if he can do that. But
02:14big Marlins news next yesterday Craig that you did break
02:17here joining Avasel Garcia. You see now Tim Anderson being
02:21released by the Miami Marlins. What's going on with inside
02:24that Marlins locker room? Because the one thing I will
02:25ask you is we've always known the Marlins the sort of penny
02:28pinch with that payroll here, but they're releasing guys
02:30that they paid some pretty good money to here.
02:33Yeah, I think that's a good point Donnie. I mean you
02:35really think about it some of the moves that they've made
02:37recently kind of crazy first move that they made back in
02:42I believe it was late April early May. I can't remember
02:44they traded Luis Arias to the Padres and are paying his
02:48salary for the remainder of the season. Then they cut Avasel
02:51Garcia. They're paying his salary for this year and next
02:54year. They let go of Tim Anderson. They're paying his
02:57salary too. So really the money factor isn't there at this
03:01point. What's happening is that the Marlins are looking ahead
03:04to the future here and there's just no point in carrying
03:07around dead money on players anymore. They sent money to
03:10the Padres to get a better return on the Arias trade remains
03:13to be seen if that's the case, you know eating the money
03:16on Garcia. So some younger players can play and with Tim
03:19Anderson Donnie simply put you know, the the straw that
03:23broke the camel's back so to speak with Sunday. I don't
03:25know if you guys caught this but like a really easy double
03:28play hit to Tim Anderson. He just botched it and they lost
03:32the game, you know, so is he going to play again in the
03:35future and Major League Baseball? I don't know the answer
03:37to that, but he certainly has had this downward spiral for
03:42the last couple of years is rare to see this sort of thing
03:44happen to a player this young. Just a few years ago in Chicago
03:49as the shortstop for the White Sox was becoming the face of
03:52the franchise. One of the more energetic and young players
03:55in MLB. It has been a quick downward spiral. Unfortunately
04:00for Tim Anderson yesterday a rough day for the fish. They
04:03lose eight to three to the Red Sox at home and Craig at
04:07Lone Depot Park yesterday. We were hoping for history. The
04:11Marlins were trying to organize the longest continuous
04:15crowd rave to a crowd wave. Excuse me, right? It said a
04:19new Guinness World, not a rave a longest crowd consecutive
04:23wave to set a new Guinness Book of World Records mark and
04:28it was canceled. Great. Give us the inside scoop here. What
04:31happened? Yeah, I've got a couple of different people telling
04:34me a couple of different things here. You know, I just think
04:37in the end, you know, factor number one is that they were
04:42going to do this I guess after the game and you know, the
04:46fans after watching a baseball game win or lose they want
04:48those fireworks tonight. The Marlins are doing it tonight.
04:51So there would have been a little delay in between that.
04:53And then the second thing is let's just call it what it
04:55is. You don't know how many people are showing up for
04:57these games at night. You don't know. So to just assume
05:00that you're guaranteed to make this happen at any baseball
05:04game, let alone the Marlins who we know have struggled
05:06with attendance. I don't know. It just it it's to me just
05:10a strange idea to begin with and I don't think fans will
05:13miss it one bit tonight. They'll just have their fireworks
05:15after the game. Honestly, I don't know what happened here.
05:18From start to finish bizarre deal. Maybe we'll see some
05:22fireworks here in the Windy City yesterday. Trey Turner
05:25provided those fireworks for the Philadelphia Phillies
05:27today. It's Wheeler versus Imanaga two aces on the mound.
05:30The Phillies are a slight favorite today. Can the good
05:32times keep going and can the Phillies maybe get to a 10
05:35game lead after tonight if they beat the Chicago Cubs.
05:38They just keep winning doesn't matter who's in the lineup
05:40to say the least but look the the Phillies pitching
05:43especially with Wheeler Nola and Suarez coming back to
05:46Earth a little bit too. Maybe they need a break coming
05:48up here for the Major League Baseball all-star game.
05:51So you see a pick them and you look at these two pitchers
05:53and you say by gosh, this could potentially be an under
05:55I'm not so sure. I think we could see some runs scored
05:58today. Just keep on that wind by the way, always at
06:01Wrigley Field. That is really the key. Also, by the way
06:03shout out to John Shames last day. I know here at Sports
06:06Grid. I know you guys will talk about that, you know
06:09later. I'll talk about it on newswire, but thanks for
06:11everything Shames. You've been you know, amazing. I mean
06:14the adult film industry is going to be very competitive
06:16for you. I want to warn you in advance. Thank you again
06:19for everything you've done.
06:23A full card on this Wednesday around Major League Baseball
06:27same story tomorrow for the Fourth of July America's
06:30pastime on America's B-Day. It's a lot of baseball
06:34breakdowns coming your way to end out this final half
06:37hour of our final show before the long holiday weekend
06:41in Ace Affair that we looked at early with Craig Mish
06:44inside the Friendly Confines today. It showed at Iminaga
06:48getting a start for Chicago. Zach Wheeler on the other
06:51side for the Phil's the Phillies albeit shorthanded
06:54offensively led by Trey Turner yesterday when the opener
06:58in Chicago six to four over the Cubbies. They were an
07:02underdog yesterday. The favorites with Zach Wheeler on
07:05the bump today.
07:07Yeah, Zach Wheeler should be able to handle his business
07:09today. It's not a heavy favorite for the Philadelphia
07:11Phillies. I think we're a better overall team and also
07:13you take a look at the last game, which I was at with
07:15Zach Wheeler going up against the Marlins. He pitched
07:17very well into the seventh inning, but at a high pitch
07:19count left the game with the lead by the time the game
07:21was over the Philadelphia Phillies and their bullpen
07:23had blown that game. So I'm expecting a better pitching
07:25performance out of him or should I say a more efficient
07:27pitching performance out of him. The question to me is
07:30not Zach Wheeler what I'm going to get out of this Phillies
07:32lineup, which all of a sudden isn't that good due to
07:34some injuries. It's what I'm actually going to get from
07:36the Chicago Cubs starting pitcher show to Imanaga. The
07:39one thing we did know Ben if you're looking at late
07:41March early April and May maybe the best pitcher overall
07:44in baseball, but in the month of June, he's fallen on
07:47some hard times here a couple of those games certainly
07:50not indicative of what he was doing at the beginning
07:52of the season. And if you're looking at a statistics
07:54348 batters, he's faced on the season a 127. I still
07:58want to wait it on base percentage of 282, which is
08:00spectacularly good. That also includes June. But if
08:02we just take a look at basically June that goes from
08:05a 127 ISO up to a 198 and waited on base percentage
08:09of 282 up to a 348. He's hittable right now and I
08:12expect Wheeler to keep those backs down for the Cubs
08:14under is probably a good look here, but I like the
08:16Phillies at that price point minus 127 minus 128 in
08:20that range. Yeah, not a very big number on baseball's
08:23best team. The Philz have 56 wins 56 and 29 best record
08:29in all of MLB Zach Wheeler has been great and to your
08:32point on Imanaga his first nine starts in his MLB
08:36career a perfect 5 and 0 record with a .84 ERA. Then
08:42he gave up 7 earned in his final start in the month
08:45of May and in June, he made five starts gave up 17
08:50total earned runs. Yes, 10 of those came in his
08:54second to last start against the New York Mets, but
08:56now the record is 7 and 2 with a 307 ERA for
09:01Shota Imanaga. I would look at the Philz as well in
09:05the Cubs who were 11 and 16 in June now 11 and 17
09:09with their first loss in July yesterday, the Atlanta
09:13Braves first game in July yesterday as well with
09:16Reynaldo Lopez on the bump come up a little bit
09:18lame against San Francisco the Giants winning 5 to
09:213 in the opener of this midweek set in the ATL Chris
09:25sale gets the start today who has been great this
09:28year for the Braves. They're nearly a $2 favorite
09:30as they were yesterday in the opening game of this
09:33set. Yeah, it's just take a look at this and it's
09:36like in the last time we saw a week for sale in
09:37the mountain is a minus 300 favorite. I want to
09:39say against the Chicago White Sox. I think they
09:41lost that game one to nothing. It's not his fault
09:43in particular. A lot of these pictures that are
09:45taking losses for the Atlanta Braves or if they
09:47do take a loss. It's really not their fault. You
09:49go six innings pitched and go three or less runs.
09:51You expect to win that baseball game. But the
09:53fact of the matter is Atlanta is struggling at
09:55the plate now their home. Do you want to lay a
09:56minus 200 price or better which is probably what
09:58it's going to wind up by the time you see game
10:00time not necessarily but if we are looking at the
10:02road pitching performances of Jordan Hicks on
10:05the season 36 and two-thirds innings, he's got
10:07a 3.68 era which is fairly solid but that climbs
10:11a little bit there with that x-fifth number of
10:134.42 something to keep an eye on the better picture
10:16by far on the mound here to me is with Atlanta,
10:19but I can't lay a two-to-one price where I say
10:21to myself. Well, what am I going to score three
10:23maybe four runs? It should be good enough to win
10:25but not enough for a price point there. I take a
10:27look at that eight now granted. We're Atlanta.
10:29It's 90 degree temperatures to be hot muggy. The
10:32wind is blowing a little bit in. I don't know
10:34if we get the nine runs today because I expect
10:36kicks to be okay and I expect sale to be very
10:38good. So it might just be the better better bet
10:41as opposed to a side just taking that under a
10:43total. Atlanta once again, the highest under
10:47percentage in Major League Baseball 62% of the
10:51games overall this year for the Braves have hit
10:54the under the Dodgers walked it off yesterday
10:56in the ravine and the opener against the Arizona
10:59Diamondbacks to run shot from Shohei Otani and
11:02maybe one of the better offseason acquisitions
11:05in all of the sport to Oscar Hernandez. He has
11:08been sensational in his first year in LA three
11:11RBI's yesterday, including the walk-off winner
11:15the RBI single in the bottom of the ninth today.
11:18The Dodgers a hefty favorite once again against
11:20the D-backs minus 205 total is nine large price
11:25in Atlanta. He said not worth the big how about
11:27here in Los Angeles. You might be looking at maybe
11:31a team total here for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
11:33Not granted, you know me Ben. I don't really like
11:35all the sudden just to go crazy on a guy that I
11:37see coming up from the minor leagues and is not
11:39yet the pitch in Major League Baseball and say
11:40to yourself. How do we think he's going to perform
11:42but sometimes you take a look at there's differences
11:45between pitchers that are coming up. You have
11:47Paul skeins coming up. Wow. We expect big things
11:49high strikeout guy. And if he dominates we expect
11:52that you take a look at Christian Nina who's
11:53expected to start today. Let's just go back to
11:55his last six starts in the minor leagues, which
11:58is all in AAA four runs earned seven runs earned
12:02five runs earned two runs earned four and four
12:05back-to-back and it's not as if he's throwing,
12:07you know, hey every game. It's eight innings.
12:09Most of those games are five innings pitch with
12:11all those runs given up. That's a AAA. Now you're
12:13stepping into Major League Baseball and playing
12:15one of those lineups. You don't want to step in
12:17and say well, I don't know if I should be a
12:19Major League Baseball or not. The Dodgers should
12:21roll in this game, but more than likely the
12:23Otani's on the board the Freddie Freeman's on
12:25the board the Jason Hayward's on the board. Just
12:27taking that normal left-hand right-hand split.
12:29You should do some damage. We should get some
12:31RBI action from the Dodgers tonight with a
12:33victory. It is kind of crazy Donnie. You made
12:36this point about Aaron judge before best batting
12:40average in MLB most home runs in MLB most RBI's
12:44in all of baseball show. A Otani has the second
12:48best batting average at 320 and leads the National
12:51League in home runs hitting his 27th yesterday
12:55judge and Otani the minus money odds on favorites
12:58to win the MVP Awards in their respective leagues.
13:01Of course, Aaron judge the American League Otani
13:03now in the NL and keep an eye on Gavin Stone
13:07the starter today for Los Angeles nine and two
13:09this year with a 273 ERA. He has won five of
13:13his last six starts. He has been lights out for
13:16Los Angeles lights out yesterday for the Texas
13:20Rangers early and often against the San Diego
13:23Padres Dylan Seas got the start San Diego was
13:25a slight favorite on the road in Texas. They had
13:28won nine of their last 11 entering for a Rangers
13:32team that was struggling the week prior. They
13:33had dropped six straight finally won a game on
13:36Sunday night baseball against the Baltimore Orioles
13:39and then everything changed the Rangers scored
13:41seven runs six of them earned against Dylan Seas
13:44Texas blowing out San Diego 7-0 in the opener
13:48in Arlington today a hefty favorite as well for
13:51the Rangers. What do you like?
13:53Yeah, you know, it's interesting about that too
13:55because Dylan Seas was one of the best pitchers
13:56on the card yesterday and got handled here. Now,
13:59let's take a look at the opposite end of the
14:01spectrum. Now. We don't have a lot of starts here
14:03for Mazer. He's going to be on the mound here the
14:04right-handed pitcher for the San Diego Padres,
14:06but he does have 22 and a third innings pitch
14:09this season in ERA 7.25 and XFIP number 6.53.
14:15You should be able to get those quality of bats
14:16here out of a Texas Rangers lineup that hasn't
14:18been all that good over the past 30 days. So
14:21if you say to yourself, well, I don't know if I
14:22want a side. We should get run tonight because
14:24Gray's not a great pitcher on the opposite side
14:26with a very good hitting lineup for the Padres.
14:28Maybe the total is in the best interest tonight
14:30in this game to go for nine, which means you
14:32need 10 runs and I think they can get there.
14:35Yesterday total was seven and a half. It stayed
14:38under because San Diego did not score but Dylan
14:41Seas allowed more runs than probably we expected
14:44very low scoring game in the Northwest. Just
14:47two nothing last night Baltimore blanking Seattle
14:50to win the opener. The O's have won five of their
14:52last six. The Mariners have dropped nine of their
14:55last 12. We do it again tonight out in Seattle.
14:58You said earlier in the show DRS, you would be
15:00keeping an eye on the ends to bounce back. They're
15:03the favorite side tonight. How come?
15:05I'll lay it minus 118 here. I do like the pitching
15:08matchup here because if we're taking a look at
15:09home pitching performances Logan Gilbert, how
15:12about this a 270 ERA and a 311 XFIP number love
15:15to see that now on the other side Dean Kramer
15:18is your average pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles
15:21struggled to start the season goes on the IL but
15:24his last three starts in those rehab starts. They
15:26were terrible in the minors. I think that might
15:28extend tonight. It's a cheap price here tonight
15:30on the Mariners. I'm willing to take it.
15:33Plenty more games to break down for you around
15:36MLB in this full Wednesday slate up next. We'll
15:40give you some bets in baseball coming your way
15:42here on the early line. Welcome back to the early
15:44line on this Wednesday a full slate of Major League
15:47baseball. This a baseball show is the breakdowns
15:50continue courtesy of one Donnie right side tonight
15:53in the six. It is game number three of this four
15:57game midweek set between the Blue Jays and the
15:59Astros Houston won the opener. They had won 10 of
16:02their last 11 entering last night. The Blue Jays
16:06even up the first two games of this set yesterday
16:09despite the Astros trying to rally Houston though
16:12still victorious in 10 of its last 12 the Blue Jays
16:16still struggling a virtual pick them tonight in
16:19the six between the Astros and the Blue Jays who
16:22gets the dub.
16:24And it probably should be a relative pick them
16:26here. Let me explain what's so tough sometimes
16:28when you're handicapping these situations. You
16:30take a look at you say Kikuchi and say well,
16:32what's term would mean the most tonight that you
16:34want to look at? Well, how does he do at home
16:3652 and two-thirds innings pitch at home this year
16:38Ben. It's got a 430 era which isn't great. But
16:41one of the better x-fifths on the card today at
16:433.18 is okay. He's comfortable pitching at home
16:45and a lot of Major League baseball pitchers would
16:47rather pitch at home than on the road. But if you
16:49take a look at his last 30 days and go off that
16:51non-analytical approach and start to take a look
16:53at what's happened on the field ISO power numbers
16:56weighted on base percentages here. He's a 222
16:58ISO and a 371 weighted on base percentage and from
17:01a player who typically is a left-handed pitcher
17:04should be able to dominate left-handed batters.
17:05He can't get any of those guys out and it's still
17:07struggling also with right-handed batters. Then
17:10you take a look at that Astros lineup and let's
17:12just take a look at the first five guys based on
17:14left-handed pitching over the past 30 days and
17:17we use weighted on base percentage 646 for Altuve
17:20Bregman 375 Alvarez 507 DS 313 and then Jake Myers
17:25at a 397. So it's what have you done for me lately
17:29might carry the day because Kikuchi isn't a name
17:32pitcher per se, but he has pitched better at home
17:35and Renault Blanc on the other side hasn't been
17:37fantastic. It is these road starts either. I'm
17:39looking at more of a total in this spot because
17:41I love the way Altuve Bregman present themselves
17:44your RBI shots probably coming from those three
17:46guys at the top here. I like the way the bats are
17:48coming around for Houston. I think we get a total
17:51to the over as opposed to that pick them side for
17:53me. A lot of runs yesterday 7 and 6. That's 13
17:57total runs in the second game between the Astros
18:00and the Blue Jays and your Don Alvarez as Houston
18:03is played much better baseball. He has been
18:06electric at the dish. Another three run shot
18:09yesterday. I think it's fair to say though DRS
18:11despite maybe being worse on the road than in
18:14H town. Ronald Blanco has been the best starter
18:17for Houston this year in eight and three mark with
18:20a 249 era. That's seventh best in all of Major
18:24League Baseball. The Royals felt like the right
18:27side yesterday hosting the Rays a long delay
18:30though for Kansas City never really got back
18:33from it. They dropped the opener against Tampa
18:35at Kaufman five to one today. It's a pick them
18:39here total at eight and a half. What do you like
18:42in KC?
18:44Another tough one here. I love this fact that we're
18:45getting a lot of pick them's enough to say minus
18:47250. I think it's going to win the game when
18:48obviously would think the favorite would do that.
18:50Let's take a look at Pepio and yesterday on the
18:52hill. I thought the better pitcher on the mound
18:54was on the Kansas City Royals didn't work out in
18:56my fashion. And if we're just using those splits
18:58home and away, it should have been a victory for
19:00me on paper for the Royals didn't work out that
19:02way. Ryan Pepio is on the mound. Now as I told
19:04you yesterday, if you had a pitcher that usually
19:07pitches better at home, they're more comfortable
19:09there, but the trough one of those pure pitchers
19:11ballparks here going on the road. Typically, your
19:13numbers will be worse. That's really the opposite
19:15for Ryan Pepio. Take a look at this a 346 era
19:18through 26 innings pitched on the road and a 310
19:21x-fifth number. That's fantastic. And also you're
19:24trying to weigh it against what the Kansas City
19:27Royals have done over the past month against
19:28right-handed pitching. They've been absolutely
19:30sensational. You look again, seven of those nine
19:33guys above in ISO power numbers and waited on
19:35base percentage. If you flip it over to the other
19:37side and say what can Tampa Bay do walk is an
19:40okay picture last 30 days at 128 ISO fits right
19:43in line waited on base percentage 310, but you
19:45also have a lot of those guys against right-handed
19:47pitching on the Tampa Bay Rays doing some damage
19:50with a score five runs yesterday, Kansas City.
19:51I believe only one run yesterday, even though
19:54these pictures are lining up still good temperature
19:5677 degrees blowing out the left field. I'll buck
19:59those trends here where Pepio has been fantastic
20:01on the road. I think we get runs in this game.
20:03I do both of these lineups set up pretty well.
20:06Let's go with the over in this game. Also.
20:09Yeah, I like to look there. The Rays have been
20:11playing pretty good baseball as of late winners
20:13of 10 of their last 14 now a game above 500 the
20:17American League East four of the five teams with
20:20a winning record at this moment. We've showed
20:22you two games back-to-back virtual pick them's
20:25a couple more that we have looked at where there's
20:26not all that much difference in those money
20:29line numbers yesterday, Donnie 15 games for Tuesday
20:32card in Major League Baseball 10 of the 15 decided
20:36by two runs or less. There's not super big marquee
20:40matchups in the sport is maybe you would expect
20:44as we head into the 4th of July holiday tomorrow
20:47America's pastime America's birthday as we've
20:49said numerous times, but some really competitive
20:52baseball yesterday and the oddsmakers expect
20:54that can to continue on this Wednesday. Not
20:58really in Atlanta or LA and not necessarily in
21:02New York. The Yankees didn't lose yesterday 5 to
21:044 to the Reds in the opener. They were a $2 favorite
21:08the Reds a big underdog in the Bronx and still
21:11a pretty big underdog today against Carlos Rodon
21:14and the Yankees who are just 4 and 11 since June
21:1814 pinstripes have dropped 11 of their last 15.
21:22Are you starting to get concerned about the Yankees?
21:26Oh, I'm concerned about the Yankees a little bit
21:28and also concerned on the mountain with Carlos
21:30Rodon. If you just take a look at his last 30 days
21:32122 batters been he's faced. That's a 259 ISO
21:36and a 408 weighted on base percentage. You got
21:39runs yesterday. It's identical yesterday eight
21:41and a half total got the nine runs. I think we
21:43might be into a similar thing. Now. Also if you're
21:45looking at Rodon, I do expect the Reds to hit
21:47but so many times the focus is always going to
21:50be on that Yankees lineup and who do you think
21:51that can do some damage again temperature 75
21:54degrees wind blowing out the left that should
21:56help but also Andrew Abbott. He does have some
21:58pretty good stuff as a young left-handed pitcher,
22:01but if we're taking a look at those splits home
22:03and away, he's not that good on the road. Then
22:05you take a look at this season 51 and a third
22:08innings pitched on the road a 348 ERA, which is
22:11very good. But how about that XFIP number at a
22:14five? You don't want to do that with that Yankees
22:16lineup first three guys Volpe Soto and judge
22:19absolutely hammering left-handed pitching with
22:21very good weighted on base percentages here. I
22:24don't know if I want to back Rodon and close to
22:25a two-to-one price. I don't think I want to take
22:27Andrew Abbott on the road as I just told you he
22:29struggles with that XFIP number. So again, leaning
22:32on and over in this game. This one much more than
22:34the past two that we talked about. I think both
22:36of these pictures can be had tonight. We should
22:38get nine runs similar to what we saw last night
22:40in the Bronx.
22:42The Yanks tried to rally Aaron judge cut it to
22:44just a one-run difference yesterday with a solo
22:47shot his 32nd of the year in the seventh Aaron
22:51judge to hit a homerun today plus 200 Shohei
22:54Otani to hit a homerun today. He had a two-run
22:57bomb yesterday in LA also a two-to-one dump.