• 5 months ago
Transcript
00:00Garrett Cole makes his 2024 MLB season debut today in the Bronx against the Baltimore Orioles.
00:07The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner now makes his first start of this 2024 campaign.
00:14Zeno, the odds expect the Yanks to celebrate Cole's return with a victory.
00:20Minus 172, the price on New York at home in the Bronx today.
00:24What is your expectation for Garrett Cole?
00:27And by that, I mean, how many pitches does Aaron Boone let him throw?
00:31How deep into this game does Garrett Cole go?
00:34He'll probably get 65 to 70 pitches.
00:37I mean, I can't see him letting him throw much more than that.
00:40Especially given the nature of the injury that he has and was to his elbow.
00:43They're not going to pitch, you know, if he gets through four, I'd almost be surprised.
00:48Unless he's highly economical.
00:50But I think around that 60-65 pitch limit is where we're going to see him go.
00:54And then the Yankees are prepared to let their bullpen take over and do the rest of the work.
00:59I mean, it's going to be really curious to see, you know, if he manages to get through this thing without going back on the aisle again due to the elbow.
01:07I'm not—I'd just be very surprised, guys.
01:11Like, it's really hard for me to believe that the elbow injury that he had, that everybody had the words Tommy John surgery, you know, floating around him for three weeks, four weeks.
01:21You know, when the injury first was discovered, to go into a guy who doesn't need it and then pitches the rest of the season without a hiccup.
01:28It's—those are odds that feel long to me.
01:32By the way, when you're taking a look at this from a handicapping perspective, how do you approach pitchers?
01:37And obviously, pedigree pitchers like Cole coming back off the DL.
01:40Because if we look at the Fandula Sportsbook, overnight that line was minus 188.
01:44It's now minus 166.
01:46So some of that money coming in on Baltimore, who's good.
01:48Does that get left off of your card?
01:50Do you sometimes jump in and be like, hey, man, I think he's going to be great based on what his starts were in the minor leagues before coming back up?
01:56I mean, this is why oddsmakers were smart enough to sucker people in with a first five bet.
02:00I mean, you know, that's the way you play this.
02:02Like, there are certain guys that I would have reservations about when they come off the aisle.
02:07I don't have reservations about Garrett Cole ever.
02:09I mean, it doesn't matter what uniform he's in.
02:11It has nothing to do with the Yankees.
02:12He's been that consistent of a pitcher his entire career.
02:14When he comes off the aisle, expect him to be every bit as good as he was, like it was a start, like he never went on the aisle.
02:20So it's just a question of, you know, how far does he go?
02:23I would assume four is probably the cap.
02:25And then the Yankees bullpen is good enough for one inning to get me through five.
02:29I mean, part of the reason I think why you see that come in is because, again, they've got to play a full nine innings.
02:33You know, that's a nine-inning price that dropped.
02:35And that very well could be part of that Cole isn't incredibly sharp.
02:39He might give up two or three runs.
02:41You know, the Yankees have a great lineup.
02:42They're missing Judge as well.
02:44So you don't get a full nine of Garrett Cole.
02:46You don't have no Aaron Judge.
02:48I mean, there's a lot of reasons to like the Orioles today.
02:51And then there's a lot of reasons to still like the Yankees today because they don't lose that often at home, period.
02:56Yeah, they certainly don't.
02:5751 wins this year.
02:59One New York baseball team has the best record in Major League Baseball
03:03and is celebrating good times with the return of Garrett Cole.
03:06The other New York baseball team is the hottest team in MLB
03:11and celebrating good times courtesy of Grimace.
03:14Can the Grimace Mets make it eight wins in a row?
03:17It is a virtual pick-em today in Arlington against the Rangers.
03:22Eight straights and 0?
03:24That is the question.
03:25What is your answer?
03:27I haven't seen many phenomenons like this sweep New York since Linsanity.
03:32And it's Grimace and the Mets.
03:34And somehow that just seems like a very fitting pair for the New York Mets.
03:37A big purple blob just sounds about right for what the Mets would be like.
03:41A handsome purple blob.
03:43I mean, yeah.
03:44That's, you know, for a guy who could barely get his arm over his head, it's pretty impressive that he actually threw a pitch.
03:49So there is that.
03:50But, I mean, I just look to the under in this spot.
03:53Both of these offenses are bad.
03:55But, you know, I feel like after where they score 16 runs in game one, they scored 13 yesterday.
04:01Like, just the under feels like the play here, especially with Texas not being able to score, period.
04:09Crazy to see the Mets dichotomy, though.
04:11Their home road splits as far as run scores.
04:13It is insane.
04:14They're the highest scoring team on the road in Major League Baseball.
04:16But they can't, you know, find a run with a roadmap flashlight at home.
04:20So, I don't know.
04:22I kind of just feel like an under comes in.
04:24Texas doesn't want to get it.
04:25They may get a good starting performance here from their pitcher.
04:28And hopefully they can close it out.
04:31Eight and a half the total today in Texas.
04:33Quickly, Zeno, to your neck of the woods.
04:35In Atlanta, early start just a little bit before 1230 p.m. Eastern time.
04:39Total is seven for the Ace Affair in the ATL.
04:42Between Detroit's Tarek Skubal and Reynaldo Lopez for the Atlanta Braves.
04:47How much offense do we see today in the ATL?
04:51I wouldn't expect much.
04:52I would take the Braves' team total under.
04:54With Skubal and the Tigers' bullpen out there, that is pretty formidable enough.
04:59Pretty formidable enough for a team that obviously isn't hitting again.
05:02Forget the race.
05:03That was an aberration.
05:04They're not going to hit.
05:05And I don't think they will score much today.
05:08Three and a half that team total for Atlanta today against Tarek Skubal.
05:12The Detroit Tigers, an underdog on the road.
05:15Mark Zeno, we appreciate your time as always.
05:17Hour three is up next on the Early Line.
05:20Live right here on this Wednesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
05:24I am Ben Stevens.
05:25Donnie is on the right side.
05:26And the man in the middle, our MLB insider and the host of Newswire.
05:30Starting at 11 a.m. Eastern time, Craig Mis joins us here on this Wednesday on TEL.
05:37Craig, let's dive right in.
05:39And we're not going to get to our wonderful animation stinger
05:42until we ask you our second question as we round the bases in honor of respect.
05:47Because yesterday, a sad moment in the history of baseball,
05:51the passing of Willie Mays at the age of 93.
05:54Willie Mays, one of the greatest baseball players to ever grace a baseball diamond,
05:59was a guy that you met a few times.
06:01What was your interaction like with Willie Mays
06:04when you had the chance to meet him in person?
06:07Yeah, Ben.
06:08It was, I mean, really, both times was, you know, like meeting him
06:13and you know you're in the presence of greatness.
06:15That time right there, I interviewed Willie Mays.
06:18He was honored by Don Shula once a year in South Florida.
06:21Don Shula would bring in a legend to honor and he brought in Willie Mays.
06:25They asked me to come and I interviewed him there.
06:27And so that was like a bucket list event, you know, to do that.
06:30You know, when I was younger, I used to like have this huge bucket list
06:35where I would like check everything off.
06:37And that's why I can say I went to all these Super Bowls
06:39and National Championships and World Series and Final Fours.
06:42Like I used to do everything.
06:44And so that was on my list.
06:46I'm like, I have to meet Willie Mays.
06:48So I did.
06:49And it was a great interview.
06:50It was fun.
06:51He was very, at the time, he was younger.
06:54I guess he was like in his 70s at that time.
06:56And it was, you know, one of the great moments for me.
07:00But I would say as a fan, I had an even bigger moment.
07:04And I'll try and tell the story as quick as I can.
07:07But in 2004, my wife and I went to San Francisco just on a trip for opening day.
07:14And it was April 12th, I believe, of 2004.
07:18A friend of mine had told me, hey, before you go to the game,
07:22randomly, he's like, Willie Mays parks in like the ship steward parking lot,
07:27which is across from the water.
07:29And he parks like in this spot.
07:30I'm like, okay, whatever.
07:31He's like, yeah, don't go into the game.
07:33Just wait out there.
07:34You'll get a chance to see him and, you know, interact with him.
07:37I'm like, okay, whatever.
07:38So literally me and my wife were out there before the game.
07:41We're like thinking this is a bunch of crap.
07:43And then here comes this escalade.
07:45Willie Mays gets out of the escalade with another person.
07:48We're looking around like where's, you know, like what is going on here?
07:51So needless to say, the reason why he was there, guys,
07:54is because it was opening day.
07:55And not only was it opening day, but Barry Bonds was on 559 home runs.
08:01If you remember, Willie Mays had 660.
08:03So, you know, we take pictures of Willie Mays.
08:06He was cool as could be.
08:07The game begins, guys.
08:09Barry Bonds hits number 660.
08:11Willie Mays comes out.
08:12They hug.
08:13I mean, it was like one of those moments.
08:16You know, and I'm in the media at the time, but as a fan,
08:18like we went out there just to see a game.
08:20We went to Oakland too.
08:21But to see, I saw, I was there for Bonds' 660th home run
08:25where he tied Willie Mays.
08:26Still have the ticket.
08:27Met Willie Mays that day before the game.
08:29So two good stories for me with Willie.
08:33That is incredible stuff.
08:34Willie Mays, the fifth most home runs all time with 660.
08:37Barry Bonds, of course, his grandson.
08:40Craig, thank you for sharing those memories.
08:42Willie Mays, a baseball icon, passing away at the age of 93.
08:46Now let's go around the bigs,
08:47the biggest updates that we have in MLB wins, injuries,
08:52and otherwise we do so on a daily basis.
09:01Craig, the story of this season for the Houston Astros
09:04has been injuries to its starting staff on the bump
09:08and add Justin Verlander to it.
09:10Placed on the 15-day IL yesterday by the Scrolls
09:13with what Houston is calling neck discomfort.
09:16Where do things stand for Houston,
09:18who are now seven games below .500?
09:21Yeah, my neighbor's a big Astros fan in my community.
09:24And he thinks this is it.
09:27I mean, he's a huge fan.
09:29And yesterday he was like, that's it, that's it.
09:32You know, that's the final one.
09:34Now we lost Verlander.
09:36And guys, I got to tell you here,
09:38I think the Astros are in huge trouble here.
09:41I mean, it's one thing to lose, you know,
09:44Jose Urquidy for the season
09:46and Christian Javier for the season.
09:49And Luis Garcia is already out for the season.
09:51And McCullers hasn't come back.
09:53But now Verlander's out too.
09:55Like, I mean, you don't have any,
09:57I mean, the Astros are a great organization
09:59and they've dipped into their pipeline big time
10:01to try and find replacements.
10:03They've done a great job.
10:04Kyle Tucker's been hurt too.
10:06So I can't pivot over,
10:08even though the Astros are still close,
10:10I can't pivot over to them.
10:11I just think that the injury bug has crushed them this year.
10:13It's one of those years that unfortunately,
10:16probably some people are going to fall on the sword
10:17for the season because losing in Houston is unacceptable.
10:20But to me, this is the final blow, losing Verlander.
10:24And by the way, they're saying
10:25they don't know when he's going to come back either.
10:27That's probably even more of a telling sign there.
10:30So some bad news there for the Astros,
10:31but great news here for the New York Yankees,
10:34which includes getting hit by a pitch
10:36and not having a broken hand or wrist.
10:38And it looks like we're going to avoid disaster there
10:40for Aaron Judge, but also even better news,
10:43Garrett Cole back on the mound today for the Yankees.
10:45Things are looking up in the Bronx here, Craig.
10:48Yeah, they are.
10:49I'd be careful with the Yankees today
10:50from the betting perspective,
10:51because generally after something like this,
10:53you would expect Judge to get a day off.
10:55Also, how deep will Cole go today?
10:56I'm not really sure, but you're right, Donnie.
10:58Having him back is better than having some player
11:01from the minor leagues.
11:02Also a great moment yesterday for the Yankees
11:04with that kid, Rice, getting his first hit too.
11:08Yeah, he was very excited to do so.
11:10He has been called up after the injury to Anthony Rizzo.
11:14But good news on the injury front for the New York Yankees.
11:17Aaron Judge might miss today,
11:19but should not be out for a considerable amount of time
11:22and Garrett Cole in his return.
11:24Craig, you showed the odds.
11:25You said be careful with where things stand today
11:27in the Bronx.
11:28Quickly here, how long do you think Garrett Cole goes
11:31in his season debut?
11:33Based on the numbers, what I've seen in the minor leagues,
11:36it feels like close to 85 pitches,
11:38which would be about six innings maximum.
11:41So I think that's probably what you'd be looking at.
11:43And that's the right approach here,
11:46because they want him for September and October.
11:48So, I mean, probably five is the number,
11:50but he could go six based on what I saw in the minor.
11:54So the Yankees win yesterday 4-2
11:56in the opener against the Orioles in the Bronx,
11:58a two-and-a-half game lead now for New York
12:01atop the American League East.
12:02Only two-and-a-half games separate those two same clubs
12:06from the American League's best record as well.
12:09Craig Misch, as always, we appreciate the time.
12:12Thank you for sharing the Willie Mays stories
12:14here on The Early Line.
12:15I'm sure we'll get more on Newswire as well.
12:17It starts at 11 a.m. Eastern time.
12:19We'll talk to you tomorrow.
12:21All right, thanks for having me.
12:22A game we have discussed at length,
12:25but now we get Donny Rightside's preview of it
12:27as we go around a full Wednesday Major League Baseball card
12:31here on The Early Line on Sports Grid.
12:34Garrett Cole makes his 2024 Major League Baseball season debut
12:38tonight in the Bronx against the Baltimore Orioles.
12:42Minus 172 is the number in favor of the pinstripe.
12:46So, let's start there.
12:47We've asked Craig Misch, we talked with Mark Zinnow,
12:50Jack McMullen about what the expectations are
12:53for Garrett Cole in his return to the Yankees lineup
12:56in his first outing in 2024 tonight.
13:00The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
13:02From what Craig was crunching the numbers,
13:04he said about 75-80 pitches around five innings of work.
13:09So, knowing that Garrett Cole might have a pitch restriction
13:12and an innings limit tonight, DRS,
13:14how do you judge that with a minus 172 price
13:18in favor of the Yankees?
13:19Yeah, for myself, if I was just a side better here,
13:23it wouldn't be on my card tonight
13:24because I just don't have a backlog here other than,
13:26yes, he seems to be doing very well
13:28through his minor league starts
13:29and we do have expectations of him being a Cy Young pitcher.
13:32Not going to get on the mound and be scared
13:34because he's back into the major leagues here.
13:36That's not the case.
13:37Just not my betting style.
13:38I would need to see a couple starts.
13:39And also, the bigger question mark is going to be,
13:42will the Navy MVP of the American League
13:45be in the lineup tonight?
13:46Now, latest reports here is that Aaron Judge is saying
13:49he wants to play tonight,
13:50but are they going to keep him out
13:51in an abundance of caution and say,
13:53hey, you know what?
13:54Maybe let's keep that swelling down.
13:55But it's hard to tell guys in a game
13:57going up against the Baltimore Orioles
13:58where you won last night,
13:59you want to get back out there and beat them again.
14:01You want to participate.
14:02If he's not in that lineup
14:03and he has been slain left-handed pitchers,
14:05that's a pretty big deal.
14:07So if you had to just say free money on the table,
14:09sure, you'd probably take the Yankees with Cole,
14:11expecting a good effort.
14:12And also keep in mind, so many times, Ben,
14:14I come on this program and say to myself,
14:16hey, look, I don't know if I trust that Pittsburgh bullpen.
14:18I know Skeens is going to be filthy through five.
14:20Wouldn't it be a shame if he went six innings
14:22and the bullpen blew up seven, eight, and nine,
14:24and you lost that game?
14:25You don't have those fears
14:26with the Yankees bullpen at this point.
14:27If Garrett Cole has a strong six innings today
14:29and they have a three-to-one lead,
14:30the Yankees are probably going to win that game.
14:32So from a betting perspective,
14:33I still do think the Yankees are a decent play here.
14:36But my question is going to be,
14:37Povich, what do you get on that side of it?
14:39We haven't seen a lot of batters he's faced, only 49.
14:42But if we do date back to May 1st,
14:44minimum 10 innings pitched,
14:45he doesn't have that great of numbers here,
14:47132 X-fit minus, an ERA that is approaching five,
14:50and a Sierra number also approaching five.
14:52The pedigree pitchers on the mound here for the Yankees,
14:54I just wish I knew a little bit more
14:56of how long he's actually going to go
14:57and how effective he will be.
14:58So it's not one of the words I'm saying,
15:00you got to lay the wood on the Yankees,
15:01but I'm also not telling you
15:02to take the Baltimore Orioles as a dog price.
15:05But if you are looking,
15:06the left-handed batters,
15:07even though the left-handed pitching,
15:08Cade Povich is on the mound,
15:09Juan Soto and Alex Radugo would be on my card.
15:12They've been very good against lefties over the past month,
15:14and I expect them to do that again tonight in the Bronx.
15:17Cade Povich really good last week
15:19at Camden against the Braves
15:21in the Battle of the Nebraska Cornhusker Hurlers.
15:23That was Spencer Schwellenbach for Atlanta,
15:25Cade Povich for the O's,
15:28but that's a pretty strong Garrett Cole,
15:30New York Yankees price
15:31in what is Cole's season debut at minus 172.
15:35This isn't the White Sox on the other side.
15:38It's not any of the teams in the American League West
15:40not named the Seattle Mariners.
15:42This is the second best team in the AL,
15:45and it's only a two and a half game gap
15:47between the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles
15:50for that top spot in the division
15:52and the league as a whole,
15:54and that's after the Pinstripes won the opening game
15:56of this midweek set against the O's.
15:59Donnie, you said this earlier on in our opening hour,
16:01recapping game number one.
16:04Sure, it is just June,
16:06and there's a lot of time left
16:08to figure out what happens in the American League East,
16:10but it's a two and a half game lead now for New York.
16:13These victories do have some added significance
16:16because of the head-to-head
16:17and what it will mean down the stretch
16:19for the rest of this summer.
16:21So the Yankees, the best record in the AL East,
16:24the best record in the AL.
16:26The O's, the second best mark in both of those categories as well.
16:29The two other divisional leaders face off this week in Cleveland.
16:33The Mariners continue their hot play.
16:35They've won eight of their last nine
16:37with a victory yesterday in the opener
16:39in the land against the Guardians.
16:41Tanner Bybee on the bump today for Cleveland
16:43to even out this set.
16:45The Guardians have lost three in a row,
16:47but they're booked as nearly a dollar-and-a-half favorite at home.
16:50Yeah, and you might just want to take a look at, again,
16:52my premise yesterday was both of these teams are good.
16:54I think I have a slight pitching advantage on Seattle.
16:56Let me go that way.
16:57That came away with a victory.
16:58Now, today you might be looking at more at the under numbers.
17:01You take a look at Bybee on the mound, a 76 X-fit minus,
17:04dating back to May 1st.
17:05You take a look at Brian Wu, who hasn't been bad,
17:07a 91 X-fit minus.
17:09But if you are taking a look at the ERAs,
17:11it's like these guys are getting a little bit unlucky
17:13with the 430 ERA for Bybee since May 1st.
17:15And you take a look at Wu, he's actually up there
17:17even a little bit higher at close to 5.
17:19So you might say to yourself, hey, these guys are struggling,
17:21but some of those analytical numbers are telling you
17:23that's not necessarily the case.
17:2582 degrees at first pitch in Cleveland,
17:27light wind blowing out to left field,
17:29so not much help there from a windy perspective.
17:31But if I'm looking at both of these pitchers, Bybee,
17:33if there was maybe a chance to get after him,
17:35left-handed batters on the season have given him an issue.
17:38And if you're looking at some of the lefties in that lineup,
17:40that's J.P. Crawford, that's Cal Rowley, that's Luke Raley.
17:42That's Canzone. Those guys do match up.
17:45And also keep in mind, it's not an overpowering lineup for Seattle.
17:48But if you are looking at tonight,
17:50six of these batters' ISO power numbers are above average
17:53against right-handed pitching over the past month.
17:56So that certainly factors in well.
17:58But if you are looking at that Cleveland Guardians lineup,
18:00Wu's got great numbers.
18:02And what I mean by that is 84 at-bats,
18:04it's an 0.60 ISO, weighted on base percentage,
18:06of 159 over the past 30 days,
18:09which means maybe not striking out enough guys,
18:11giving up too many fly balls and getting a little bit lucky.
18:13But those are some of the betting numbers I don't want to bet into,
18:16even though the Cleveland Guardians have a very good history
18:19over the past month of hitting right-handed pitching.
18:22But for me, I'll just lean on taking the plus money
18:24once again on day number two,
18:26because I think Wu should have a decent day,
18:28even though those Guardians numbers are very, very good
18:31against right-handed pitching.
18:33The Guardians, a 4.5-game lead
18:35for the top spot in the American League Central,
18:37in front now of the Minnesota Twins,
18:40who have moved past the Kansas City Royals.
18:42KC, slightly struggling here in the month of June.
18:45The Twins, not this last week.
18:47Six victories in a row for Minnesota,
18:49booked as a pretty hefty home favorite tonight
18:51in game number two of their midweek set
18:53against Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays.
18:56The Rays, five games below .500.
18:59Will it be seven straight today at Target Field
19:01in Minneapolis for the Twins?
19:03Taj Bradley, usually one of those guys I like to get after.
19:06But let's take a look at his last 30 days in totality,
19:09which is always interesting, which side can you side with?
19:11114 batters he's faced.
19:13A .245 iso and a .314 weighted on base percentage.
19:16Now, the .314 is actually below average.
19:18The iso power number .245, way above average here.
19:21That's where you can get in trouble.
19:23He's got a high iso power number to lefties and righties.
19:25So then you say to yourself, okay,
19:27that's what's actually happened on the field.
19:29What actually are his analytical numbers?
19:31If we look at his ERA, it's 4.23 since May 1st,
19:34which obviously isn't great, but a Sierra number here,
19:36if you include skill interactive ERA,
19:38which includes defense, it's a 3.01.
19:40That's really good.
19:42His exit minus is actually only a 77, which is interesting.
19:45But if you line up right-handed pitchers going up
19:47against the Minnesota Twins, they have the ability
19:49to put some quality lefties in that lineup.
19:51If you're looking at this team weighted on base percentage-wise,
19:54six out of the nine batters we anticipate tonight,
19:57all positive weighted on base averages
19:59against right-handed pitching over the past month.
20:01That's going to be a tough one to say.
20:03So if I'm saying, all right, I always like to fade Taj Bradley.
20:05His analytical numbers are good.
20:07I'm probably still going to have a slight lean here
20:09towards the Minnesota Twins today.
20:11The hottest team in the American League,
20:13that's Minnesota, six consecutive wins.
20:15The hottest team in the National League,
20:17in all of Major League Baseball, that's the Grimace match.
20:20Seven consecutive victories for the Amazons
20:22since Grimace threw out the first pitch last week at Citi Field.
20:26I feel like I have to keep giving the qualifier
20:28in case this is your first time watching the early line,
20:31either in this three hours or this week.
20:34They look for eight wins in a row.
20:36The Amazons tonight on the road in Arlington.
20:39It's a virtual pick-em against the reigning World Series champs.
20:42Will it be eight straight for New York?
20:45Let's take a look at Minaya.
20:47Now, if we take a look at Minaya, excuse me,
20:48let's take a look at him on the mound.
20:4984 bats he's had over the past,
20:51or 84 batters he's faced over the past month.
20:53266 ISO, 373 weighted on base percentage.
20:56Like, oh, man, sign me up for Texas.
20:58But watch out.
20:59Simeon, Seager, and Grossman,
21:01above average ISO and weighted on base percentage
21:03against lefties over the past month.
21:05Everybody else has been atrocious.
21:07So now flip it over to the Mets,
21:08who, as we know, in the past 30 days
21:10have really gotten their bats going.
21:12Andrew Heen is a left-handed pitcher.
21:14He struggles with right-handed bats,
21:15but take a look at this lineup.
21:17Brandon Nimmo's got a 312 weighted on base percentage.
21:19Outside of him, Alvarez, and Bader,
21:21everybody else has really good numbers here.
21:24So if you're focused on RBI props,
21:26again, look to the middle of that lineup,
21:27and probably Pete Alonso,
21:29he should be able to cash in a ticket for you tonight.
21:31I think the good times continue
21:33for those New York Metropolitans.
21:35The game-winning ribby from the Polar Bear
21:37last night in Arlington.
21:39Plenty more baseball breakdowns now.
21:42Seven runs in one inning.
21:44A half inning for the L.A. Dodgers yesterday
21:47in their wild rallying comeback at Coors
21:50against the Colorado Rockies.
21:5211-9 the victory for L.A.
21:54And in the top of the ninth, Jason Hayward,
21:56a pinch hit.
21:58Grand salami got the Dodgers back into the game.
22:01And then Te'Oscar Hernandez, a three-run shot
22:04to win it after maybe what should've been called
22:06a strike on a check swing.
22:08But regardless, history will show
22:10a seven-run comeback for the L.A. Dodgers.
22:13Ten and a half the total today at Coors
22:16between the Rockies and L.A.
22:18The Dodgers booked as a $2 favorite
22:20with Bobby Miller on the bump.
22:22Total on Monday night was 12.
22:25Dodgers win 9-5.
22:27Total yesterday, DRS, because of the rally, was 11.
22:31The Dodgers win 11 tonight.
22:33Both games over.
22:34Will we see it for a third straight day?
22:37Could be, whether or not as, I guess, appreciative
22:39of what we need it to be at this time of the year
22:41in Colorado.
22:4270 degrees, which is nice, but a wind blowing in
22:44from dead center field about five to six miles an hour.
22:46And again, we're still playing at Coors.
22:48The ball's gonna travel, but we're just not getting
22:50those heated-up temperatures and a wind blowing out.
22:52Now, having said that, I did get a kick out of last night.
22:54Te'Oscar's home run, if you watched that on a replay
22:57or maybe a highlight, you saw the minute that ball
22:59went over the fence, that right fielder was screaming
23:02at the umpire on the first baseline here, knowing
23:05that that should have been a strike three call
23:07and that game was basically over, but yet now
23:09they're gonna lose because they gave up that home run.
23:11Flip it over to tonight, because Randy Feltner
23:13hasn't been a great pitcher.
23:14Now, you have to understand one thing.
23:15His ERA since May 1st is over six, but he does pitch
23:18at Coors Field.
23:19So, if we try to put those metrics in to sort of
23:21level the playing field, his exit minus number
23:24is slightly under 100.
23:25So, he's not a terrible pitcher, but here's the issue.
23:28So, right-handed pitcher, he's been great this year, Ben,
23:31against right-handed batters for the year
23:33and the past 30 days.
23:34The issue, he can't get left-handed batters out.
23:37On the season, it's a .234 iso and a weighted-on-base
23:39percentage of .390.
23:41Take a look at the last 30 days, though.
23:43It's a .404 iso and a weighted-on-base percentage
23:46of .478.
23:47You know where we're looking right there.
23:49First part of that lineup, Joey Otani, lefty leading off,
23:52Freddie Freeman, lefty in that three-hole here,
23:54and even Jason Hayward is due to get the start today
23:56after hitting that pinch-hit grand slam last night.
23:58Those guys need to be on your card.
24:00Now, when you say to yourself, what am I getting
24:02from the Dodgers' pitching perspective?
24:04Well, we're hoping for good things for Bobby Vail.
24:06We don't have anything over the past 30 days to lean on,
24:08and it wasn't as if this early part of the season,
24:10through those sifty batters, he was lighting the season on fire.
24:13So, even though it's not unbelievable hitting conditions,
24:16we're still at 70 degrees at first pitch.
24:18We're probably going to get 12-plus runs once again tonight,
24:21buoyed by those left-handed bats for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
24:25I mean, Joey Otani has been great all year long,
24:29as you would expect, but since spooky bets went down on Sunday
24:33and his injury kind of taking him out,
24:36at least from the odds perspective, the NL MVP race,
24:39making Joey Otani the favorite, he has backed it up.
24:42Three home runs in the last three games for L.A.,
24:45five ribbies in that three-game span as well.
24:49Day baseball on this Wednesday.
24:51Six games in the afternoon hours,
24:53including a very early start in Atlanta,
24:55even before 12.30 p.m. Eastern time.
24:57The Braves host the Tigers.
24:59Reynaldo Lopez for Atlanta.
25:01Tarek Scouble on the other side for Detroit.
25:03The Tigers, a road underdog.
25:05The Braves, a slight home favorite.
25:07Atlanta's won the first two games of this midweek set
25:10by the same final score, 2-1 the past two days in the ATL.
25:14Hey, Reynaldo Lopez has been very good.
25:16You take a look at him even since May the 1st here.
25:19Looks like a 91 X-fit minus number, which is very good,
25:22but also the ERA, 1.83.
25:24He's been great this season.
25:26So if you're lining up batters, he's been great against lefties
25:29the past 30 days and really good against righties,
25:31which when we took a look at that Detroit lineup,
25:33it's usually, as I said, Vierling and Riley Green
25:36and not much out there.
25:37So unless you're just saying a leap of faith
25:39that Reynaldo Lopez is going to go back
25:41to his Chicago White Sox days, good luck with that.
25:43Now, 84-degree temperatures down in the Big A today at noon.
25:46It's going to be hot, but again, 12- to 13-mile-an-hour winds
25:50blowing in from right field.
25:51That might have a little bit of a say in this one.
25:53But let's go over to the other side.
25:55We already know the Braves are struggling at the plate.
25:57They're getting Tarek Skubal on the mound today,
25:59who has been filthy for the season, filthy for the last 30 days.
26:02And if you take a look at his X-fit minus number since May 1st,
26:05it's a 70.
26:06So much like the Braves can win this game,
26:08where are they going to win it, Ben?
26:103-2, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0.
26:12Those are the vibes for here.
26:13I'll take the under in this game.
26:16The Atlanta Braves have played 58% of their games
26:192-and-under so far this season,
26:22at least where they have been at home,
26:24and even higher or under percentage throughout the entirety
26:27of this MLB campaign.
26:29The Phillies have lost two straight series
26:31since returning from London and splitting with the Mets.
26:35The Phillies have fouled their footing this week back at home at the bank.
26:38Two consecutive victories over San Diego,
26:41including the walk-off winner yesterday off the bat of Nick Castellanos.
26:45So today in Philadelphia, once again,
26:48the Phillies with some day baseball,
26:50hosting the Padres, who are on a slide.
26:53They've lost five in a row.
26:54The Phillies DRS booked as a minus 178 home money line favorite.
26:58We've seen Zach Wheeler.
26:59We've seen Aaron Nola.
27:01The best pitcher this year for Philadelphia might be Ranger Suarez.
27:04Yeah, Phillies should win this game.
27:06And also keep in mind, this game is going to be 105 here.
27:08And I just told you that heat dome is right here in the Northeast.
27:11First pitch temperatures, 92 degrees with the wind blowing out.
27:14Having said that, I wish we had some tomato cans on the mound,
27:18which we don't have today.
27:19If you take a look at Waldron, you might say he's ERA since May 1st,
27:22is about average.
27:23He's a decent pitcher.
27:24But when you take a look at his last 120 batters, Ben,
27:26an 055 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 221.
27:30That is spectacular.
27:32Not a lot of free passes and a decent amount of strikeouts,
27:34even though the Philadelphia Phillies got some really good batters
27:37in that lineup that have been dominant against right-handed pitching
27:40over the past month.
27:41It's not a great matchup.
27:42Then we flip it over to San Diego.
27:43Sure, jerks in profile, Manny Machado, Donovan Solano,
27:46all quality hitters who have handled left-handed pitchers great
27:49over the past 30 days.
27:50The issue is Suarez has been great on the season
27:52and very good over the past 30 days.
27:54Take a look at this.
27:55A 118 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 278.
27:58If we combine lefty and righty batters, as much as you just might say,
28:01it's Citizens Bank ballpark.
28:03It's hot.
28:04The wind is blowing out.
28:05I got to go with the over.
28:06The pitches are telling you right now in this matchup,
28:08we probably should be getting an under today in Philadelphia.
28:10But I do think the Philadelphia Phillies do beat San Diego in this spot.
28:12But also keep in mind, Trey Turner not expected to play today.
28:15Looks like he's going to get the day off.
28:17Eight and a half remains that total.
28:19San Diego in June, just 6-11.
28:21Quickly, we go to Wrigley.
28:23Some more day baseball inside the friendly confines.
28:26The Cubs yesterday, a three-run eighth to rally against the Giants.
28:30That has not been the case late in games for the Cubbies.
28:32What do you like in Chicago?
28:34The over.
28:35And, again, both of these lineups aren't tremendous here.
28:38But when you're talking about Wrigley Field,
28:39you can almost just put that same weather forecast I gave you
28:42from Philadelphia in Wrigley.
28:4492 at first pitch, about 10 mile an hour to dead center field.
28:47Spencer Howard, who can't get right-handed batters out.
28:49You might want to go with the right-handed batter.
28:51Seah Suzuki today should be in business for the Cubs.
28:55Some ribby props on Seah.
28:57And we might be seeing a lot of runs.
28:5911 and a half is that total.
29:01More MLB bets coming your way next.
29:03Some early starts.
29:04Some day baseball on this Wednesday around MLB.
29:08Next up, we go to PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
29:11Dubuque goes a favorite against the Cincinnati Reds.
29:13Pittsburgh a minus 134.
29:15Home money line favorite against Hunter Green and Cincy.
29:19Over-under stands at eight.
29:21This scheduled for first pitch just after 1230 p.m. Eastern time.
29:25Not all that long from now.
29:27What do you like, Donnie?
29:28Yeah, not a great lineup here for the Reds,
29:30particularly going up against right-handed pitching over the past month.
29:32You're supposed to hammer right-handed pitching.
29:34Will Benson, who's due up in the leadoff spot today, he got solid numbers.
29:37Ellie De La Cruz has decent numbers.
29:39Everybody else, three through nine, terrible numbers against right-handed pitching,
29:43which is something you should be able to take care of with Mitch Keller.
29:46Now, left-handed bats have gotten the best of Mitch Keller.
29:49Benson's a lefty.
29:50De La Cruz will be a lefty.
29:51Fraley will be a lefty.
29:52Martini and also Hubertos.
29:54But at this point, I don't know if I can trust that lineup overall.
29:57Now, let's take a look on the opposite side.
29:59Hunter Green, who has that pedigree,
30:01which we think is going to become a very good pitcher in Major League Baseball,
30:03just hasn't really surfaced yet.
30:05And quite frankly, he's great against left-handed batters,
30:07but terrible against right-handed batters.
30:10So Andrew McCutcheon at the top of that lineup should be able to do some damage.
30:13Maybe Nick Gonzalez in the middle.
30:15But these two lineups aren't great here.
30:17So 89-degree temperatures in Pittsburgh, love to go over.
30:20I'm probably still leaning towards an under at this point.
30:22Just not happy with either one of these lineups.
30:25It's been a low-scoring affair between these two this week.
30:27They have split so far.
30:29This, the rubber match today in Pittsburgh.
30:32The Pirates won game one 4-1.
30:34And that was with Paul Skeens on the bump.
30:36The Reds victorious yesterday, 2-1.
30:38Nick Lodolo, a good outing for Cincinnati.
30:41Again, who was 10 games below .500 on May 23rd.
30:44From that point, they've gone 15-8.
30:4710-6 here in the month of June.
30:50Let's get right into it.
30:52And before we give you our best bets on this Wednesday,
30:54quickly, not just some day baseball on this Wednesday in the Bigs,
30:58an early start in the College World Series in Omaha in about five minutes.
31:03The total continues to be on the rise for the elimination game
31:07between Kentucky and Florida.
31:09I still like the under.
31:11I'm sticking to my guns.
31:13Under 12.5 between the Cats and the Gators.
31:16An SEC affair with a spot continuously in the Big O on the line.
31:22And one season comes to a close today.
31:25Two more games later in winter bracket play
31:28after we get this one early on a Wednesday in Omaha.
31:32So before we say farewell on this Wednesday, Friday,
31:36I don't know where I got that.
31:37It feels like a Friday.
31:38Before we say farewell on this Wednesday, before we say goodbye,
31:42it's time for a Wednesday best bet.
31:45It's time for Bye-Bye-Bye.
31:47DRS, a lot of baseball to choose from.
31:55A full Wednesday card.
31:56What is your best of all the bets?
31:58Yeah, probably riding that hot streak there with the New York Mets.
32:01Team total certainly could be in play today with Andrew Heaney on the mound.
32:04But like the final, like yesterday, J.D. Martinez let me down.
32:06Scored a lot of runs.
32:07He wasn't a participant.
32:08Yesterday, Pete Alonzo was a participant.
32:10And it's not like, oh, let's just go back that way.
32:12There are a multitude of guys here that are going to bat righty in that lineup
32:15that should be able to handle Andrew Heaney.
32:17But I'm going to go with Pete Alonzo in that cleanup spot.
32:19A .233 ISO, a .356 weighted on base percentage
32:22over the past month against left-handed pitching.
32:24I think he does some damage today and grabs us an RBI.
32:27And it's a pretty good price point here at the Fandals' fourth.
32:29But that's a plus 155 for the Polar Bear to get us an RBI.
32:33And I think he will do that today.
32:35Listen, it's a baseball show.
32:37I'm feeling baseball-y.
32:39We start with the first game of the day in MLB.
32:42Tarek Skubal on the bump for Detroit.
32:45I like the Tigers in the first five.
32:47It's around a minus 102 price for Detroit as a road underdog.
32:52And how about Garrett Crochet for the Chicago White Sox?
32:56After the Sox beat the Strohs yesterday 2-0,
32:59finally Chicago gets to 20 wins.
33:02They've had 14 since May began,
33:06six of them when Crochet started a game for the Southsiders.
33:11In eight starts since May started,
33:15Garrett Crochet has given up a total of six earned runs.
33:20Donnie, am I crazy for thinking the White Sox first five today against Houston?
33:25Yeah, it could work out there.
33:27That pitchfork is out there for the Houston Astros,
33:29so why not take advantage of it, Ben?
33:30I like where you're going.
33:31But by the way, let me back this up.
33:33Imagine if you're a college baseball player.
33:35You hit that Dublin gap today, walk off.
33:37You walk right to South Beach,
33:39or you walk right to Manhattan Beach on the West Coast.
33:42It's the way to do it, man.
33:43This is the next level.
33:44The kids want to be in L.A. and Miami.
33:46Let's make it happen next year.
33:47Hashtag out of Omaha.
33:49I'm not going to slander Manhattan Beach.
33:51I am going to slander you.
33:53That's the worst idea you've had among many that are bad.
33:56That's my fault, though.
33:58I gave you too much time on the backside there
34:00because we had too much time talking best bets.
34:03I've already said I kind of like the under-Kentucky-Florida elimination game
34:07fading where the market is going.
34:09I love the over for whatever team wins
34:11and then plays Texas A&M in the nightcap tonight.
34:14Oh, Annalia Boston, over 14 and a half points.
34:17He's Donnie Rightside.
34:18I'm Ben Stevens.
34:19We'll talk tomorrow, Thursday at a.m. Eastern
34:22here on Sports Talk.

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