MLB Best Bets: Season Countdown; Astros Rise in World Series Odds
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00:00So let's go around Major League Baseball. From the biggest picture perspective we can have, nearing the end of August.
00:07There's just over a month left of this regular season. As we detailed yesterday, every club around the Bigs has less than 40 games remaining in the long marathon that is 162 of a regular season in MLB.
00:22And one of the narratives starting to emerge, a tight race at the top in terms of either league for the best record, for playoff positioning, and of course those races around MLB.
00:34As we look at the World Series odds, it's still a very similar story. The Dodgers a favorite, plus 350. The Phils back by less than a dollar and a half at plus 480.
00:45The Yankees plus 550. The O's plus 750. And the Astros now a 9-1 number. Donnie, really, the big change over the last 2-3 weeks in terms of those World Series prices, it's the Astros moving up to that 5th best price, less than 10-1.
01:01But still a peg behind the Big 4 in favor of the Braves. Atlanta falls back to that 16-1 number.
01:09It's interesting, too, because sometimes we get this as handicappers, Ben, and it's a blind spot. Because factoring on the Houston Astros as being a bad baseball club before the All-Star break, now being a very good baseball club is sort of hindering.
01:22Because the 1-9 is decent. The starting pitching for Andrew Valdez has been very good. But outside of that, a little bit questionable.
01:28And Verlander is set to come back on the bump shortly here, which might give them a little bit of boost if he can get back to being the Verlander of at least the past couple years.
01:35But I still see that price point at a 9-1 and say, hey, look at that. Top five in baseball. It just doesn't feel like that.
01:41Because I'm so locked in on the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles being head and shoulders from me above the rest of Major League Baseball.
01:48And with me already riding on the Houston, riding off the Houston Astros, and they're playing good baseball, it's hard to give them credit back and say, OK, I didn't think they would make the playoffs.
01:57Now I'm going to actually think they're going to be a World Series contender without changing much.
02:01It was like they went out on the trademark like, you know what, they fortified three All-Stars in that lineup.
02:05The players are just starting to play a little bit better, but I still think they're short overall on talent.
02:10So I agree that the Astros have to be moved up because they're playing good baseball.
02:14They're going to win the division. They're going to make the playoffs, which means they're going to have home field advantage, at least in the first round of the playoffs.
02:21That does mean something here. But still, when I look at the other teams in baseball, it's like, you know what, maybe I missed out on the price point that you could have got the Astros.
02:29But, Ben, I don't think I was ever looking at the price point to say, oh, man, I had my finger on the trigger at 26 to 1.
02:35I never did because I didn't expect them to be in this position right now.
02:39Yeah, it's a really good point, DRS, and there still is a chance, a remote chance, but a chance.
02:44Houston, four and a half games back behind the Yankees for what would be the best record at this moment in the American League.
02:50That's how close the gap has become around baseball at this moment because we're not having a team run away with 100, 105, 110 wins as maybe we expected at certain points from the Phillies or the Dodgers or the Yankees off to a great start through the middle of June.
03:07Now, I still think the Yanks or perhaps the team that wins the American League East division is still going to be that number one seed in the American League.
03:16But it's not like, okay, Houston scraped by five games above 500 to win a bad American League West by a game over the Mariners.
03:23The Astros are propelling themselves now 12 games above 500 with that five-game lead.
03:29The Yankees owes and throws, all separated by less than two bucks for that best price in the American League pennant.
03:36The Yanks the favorites at plus 230, Baltimore at a plus 340 price, and Houston at plus 410.
03:43The American League Central, more than likely, will have three of its five teams occupy three playoff spots.
03:49The Guardians a two-and-a-half game lead right now over Minnesota for the top spot in the American League Central.
03:55But the Twins and the Royals pretty comfortably in those American League wildcard spots.
04:00We've got your thoughts on the American League Central, though, DRS, throughout this year.
04:04Let's go to the National League West.
04:06The Dodgers still maintain three-game lead atop the division.
04:09L.A. has won the NL West 10 of the last 11 years, very much on pace to win it for an 11th time in the last 12 seasons.
04:17But they are being pushed by the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
04:21In San Diego and Arizona, very comfortable atop the National League wildcard standing.
04:27So you see the prices, 18-1 to win the World Series for the Padres, 20-1, 10th best number to round out this list for the Diamondbacks.
04:36Is it worth investing in in this moment for the two hottest teams since the All-Star break?
04:42I think it is.
04:43If you remove the top four teams, again, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Orioles,
04:46and you take a look at the Astros and the Guardians, the next two teams, I wipe them off there along with the Braves at 16-1.
04:51The teams that I'm most interested in probably would be the Twins at 16-1, followed by the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
04:57Like, taking a flyer on either the D-backs or the Padres just to stay hot and make the playoffs here,
05:01they're going to be a problem, and they're priced appropriately.
05:04And also, if they can actually pass up the Dodgers here and take that number one seed, you'd be getting a bargain right now.
05:10Let's see how they continue.
05:11But the Padres and Diamondbacks, I'm in it in the end.
05:14It's going to be fun to watch.
05:15I think it's a time to truly, truly buy in, and it is legitimate.
05:20Hour 2 starts next.
05:22You're on the early line.
05:23It's a Tuesday around Major League Baseball.
05:26A full Tuesday card where some midweek series begin today, and they are very, very important.
05:34We will look forward to the rest of this week and look back on the Monday slate with our MLB insider and the host of Newswire
05:41starting at 11 a.m. Eastern time.
05:43That is Craig Mish.
05:44Craig, as always, thanks for being here on this Tuesday morning.
05:48Of course.
05:49It is great to be here and great talking baseball as, you know, we get ready to close out August and move into the final month of the season.
05:56That's exactly our charge here, Craig.
05:59There is not many more times we can go all around.
06:02Less than 40 games remain for all 30 MLB clubs around the big.
06:07So on this Tuesday, we do touch them all.
06:10It's time for Daily Bases.
06:18Craig, the Houston Astros are surging at the most significant time of the year.
06:23The Astros have won 11 of their last 12 games, walking it off last night in their midweek series opener against the Boston Red Sox at home.
06:31You say Kikuchi got the start.
06:33He did not get the win, but the Astros have won all four of the starts Kikuchi has now made for the Stros.
06:39They have a five-game lead in the American League West.
06:43Craig, what has worked so well for Houston in the second half of this MLB campaign?
06:48Look, they're playing much better offensively.
06:51When you look at some of the numbers on the Astros, you look at it and you wonder, hey, why is Altuve's OPS down?
06:57Some of the other players, I mean, this is a league-wide thing.
07:00So I don't think you can necessarily look at every player in baseball and judge them based on past numbers.
07:05It just looks like offensively, most numbers are down.
07:08And so, therefore, Houston's numbers are down.
07:11And even though they're not scoring a ton of runs, they're still getting, as you said, pitching performances.
07:15I think there's a couple of things in play here.
07:17And if you want to focus on Kikuchi, I think he is rock solid and going to pitch game two or game three for any series the Astros play in the postseason.
07:26And honestly, I have to think that that trade that they made, the Blue Jays have to sort of be looking at this and saying, what has Houston figured out that we could not?
07:34It feels like they're letting Kikuchi get into the sixth inning in every game and pulling the plug on him before things get dangerous.
07:40And his numbers have been fantastic with them all throughout August.
07:43Five and a third, five and two thirds, 11 strikeouts, seven strikeouts, one strikeout.
07:47So good job by the Astros in their advanced scouting and, you know,
07:51certainly their major league scouting to determine that he was going to be the one that was going to help them.
07:56And, guys, he has been a huge help to that rotation.
07:59Yeah, we'll see.
08:00Creeping back up there is maybe one of the favorites in the American League, which is kind of crazy just a few months ago to think about that.
08:06But, Craig, injuries can be contagious and it feels like that's what's taking place here with the Atlanta Braves.
08:10Austin Riley, six to eight weeks out with a fractured right hand, got hit with a pitch.
08:16It just keeps mounting up here for the Braves.
08:19It does.
08:20It does.
08:21And if they make the postseason, you're talking about, you know, the most decimated team entering with very little odds to go far.
08:29I mean, to go.
08:30I mean, they say that Riley will be back.
08:31But, guys, let's just keep it real here.
08:33In all likelihood, this ain't going to be for the first round of the playoffs.
08:36So, they would be without Acuna, without Riley.
08:39They've missed Albies for a period of time.
08:41Of course, they don't have Spencer Strider.
08:43And yet, they're still right there for the postseason.
08:45And then we saw the report this morning that they're looking into signing Giovanni Urshela, who was placed on waiver.
08:51So, the Braves are not quitting.
08:52I mean, they are still going to push forward and try to make the most out of this.
08:56I don't know if they'll get there.
08:57But what a story it would be.
08:58It almost goes from a team of disappointment in April and May to now a team that maybe some fans will be rooting for to get in because of the adversity.
09:06Craig, a team in April before the year got underway, perhaps in late March, that was expected to contend for a National League pennant once again with the Dodgers.
09:15A team in the Braves that had won the National League East for six consecutive years.
09:20And a team that, despite the injuries that started to stack up to their key significant players, was still seen by the oddsmakers as a shoo-in to the National League postseason.
09:31That is not necessarily the case as of this moment.
09:34Atlanta holding on to a game-and-a-half lead over the Mets for the third and final National League wildcard spot.
09:41The Braves more than likely not catching the Phillies.
09:43Down by seven games atop the National League East.
09:45But it's still an incredibly important divisional rivalry that starts this week in Atlanta.
09:51A great pitching matchup in game number one.
09:54It's Wheeler versus Lopez.
09:56Zach Wheeler versus Reinaldo Lopez on the other side for Atlanta.
10:00As we compare these two teams as of this moment, Craig, the Phillies minus 1,600 to win the National League East.
10:07Again, that would snap a six-year streak for the Braves atop this division.
10:12How much significance do you put into this midweek set in the ATL?
10:16Well, look, they're taking it very seriously.
10:18You mentioned the matchup tonight.
10:20I mean, you have Max Fried and Aaron Nolan tomorrow, Ben.
10:22So, I mean, this is going to be three games of really good matchups here.
10:26As far as, like, picking a winner or an outcome, it's the middle of August.
10:30It's really difficult to do.
10:31You're going to see minus 120s or minus 130s.
10:34That means it's a competitive series.
10:36You look around the rest of the league in baseball, you're seeing minus 200s, 250s, etc.
10:40So, I just think it'll be a fun series.
10:42Look, I'm curious.
10:43Reinaldo Lopez has been banged up a little bit.
10:45He is back now pitching for the Braves.
10:47So, you know, for the Braves, they're hoping, of course, that he can be a major factor in any postseason run for them.
10:52But I don't know that this is necessarily going to be another preview of a series that we're going to see
10:57because we've seen it in the National League now a couple of times,
11:00but really enjoyable to see two teams fighting so hard at this stage of the year.
11:04Same thing in the American League today, Craig.
11:06We get underway in the Bronx.
11:07That's the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees.
11:09Boyd and Heal on the mound today.
11:11Favorite, minus 148, live at the Fabulous Sportsbook.
11:13But also, two teams looking to stay in first place and getting pressure from either the second-place team,
11:18like the Baltimore Orioles going up against the Yankees.
11:20Really a plethora of teams, it feels like now, in the Central Division.
11:23How are we looking at this series for the Guardians and the Yankees?
11:26Yeah, look, I think the Guardians do match up well against New York.
11:29And, you know, very intelligent front office and pitching staff.
11:32You're going to see a lot of pitching around some of these guys, I would imagine, this week.
11:36Jose Ramirez, always a factor.
11:38I would play him to hit a home run or two in this series.
11:40He always steps up in the biggest moments for them.
11:43But I think the real story is, for me, is sitting here on all of these shows, on SportsGrid,
11:47and being asked about the Yankees, their demise, they're not going.
11:50And they have the best record in the American League.
11:52I mean, these Yankees fans will never be satisfied with anything.
11:56I mean, yeah, they had a tough run, like I told you guys earlier in the season.
11:59But in the end, they're going to make it.
12:01They're going to win their 90-something games, and they're right at the top with everybody else.
12:04So as long as they can figure out how to get outs in the ninth inning,
12:08which I think is going to have to change for them, Donny,
12:10I don't think that they're going to use Clay Holmes in the postseason in the ninth.
12:13But for now, they'll roll it until it gets real serious.
12:16And then they're going to have to mix and match for the time being.
12:18Another good series, though, this week.
12:20Craig, bonus question.
12:21We're going to have five questions here in the last 20 seconds.
12:24Will we see a 100-win team at MLB this year?
12:27No.
12:29I don't think so, either.
12:31It's not on pace at this moment.
12:33Craig Misch always delivers, even if we go back to first on the daily basis.
12:38Craig, we'll see you on Newswire at 11 a.m.
12:41More on the early lineup next.
12:4315 games on this Tuesday around Major League Baseball.
12:47That is the schedule.
12:48It is a full slate, and a couple really good midweek series start on this Tuesday evening.
12:55We first go to the Bronx, the two top teams in the American League.
12:59It's the Yankees and the Guardians.
13:01New York, 73-52.
13:03Half-game advantage over Cleveland.
13:0572-52 is the mark for the Guardians.
13:08Also a half-game advantage for the Yankees in the American League.
13:11East, in front of Baltimore, the O's, 73-53.
13:16Very compact at the top.
13:18What an opportunity it is inside Yankee Stadium for our guy, Luis.
13:23Don't call him.
13:24Heel.
13:25And the Yanks, a minus 154.
13:27Home money line favored today against Cleveland.
13:29Over, under is 8-1⁄2.
13:31The title of the game, and perhaps the series, ALCS preview.
13:35Who rises to the occasion tonight in New York?
13:38I think we might be looking at an under, too, Ben.
13:408-1⁄2.
13:41Now, granted, wind is blowing out to right field about 8 miles per hour,
13:44but so many times during the summer in the Bronx, it's like, okay, what is it?
13:4885, 90, 95 degrees at first pitch.
13:51If you woke up on the East Coast today, particularly the Northeast,
13:53boy, you got that vibe of fall is coming.
13:5668 degrees at first pitch,
13:58which means that temperature is probably going to dip into the lower 60s.
14:01Maybe the ball doesn't travel as far.
14:03Now, Matthew Boyd is on the mound here today for the Cleveland Guardians.
14:06You might remember him most likely from the Detroit Tigers.
14:09Wasn't a great pitcher.
14:10Only 19 batters that he's faced so far this season, and has handled them well.
14:14But it's certainly different once you're going to get that expanded format.
14:17You're going to take on the Yankees in the Bronx in a hitter's ballpark.
14:19I expect him to get touched up a bit.
14:21But Luis Heel on the opposite side against right-handed batters, Ben.
14:24Last 30 days, he's been sensational, quite frankly, on the season.
14:27He's faced 271 right-handed batters.
14:29A 108 ice on a weighted-on-base percentage of 250.
14:32Why is that important?
14:33Usually, you're going to go up against much more left-handed batters
14:37if they have the ability to do so.
14:39Now, Heel, as I said, probably should be good against righties.
14:42Excuse me, righties, yes.
14:43But lefties, take a look at this.
14:44Kwon, Brennan, Ramirez, Naylor, Jimenez, Shearman, Naylor, and Roccio.
14:50What does that do?
14:51Simple math here, Ben.
14:52One right-handed batter in the lineup.
14:54So if I'm looking at this game, it's hard to say Boyd is going to go in there
14:59and dominate the Yankees.
15:00I understand.
15:01But at the same time, if a pitcher does struggle with left-handed bats,
15:05and you're going to get eight of those tonight in the Bronx
15:08with the wind blowing out the right field,
15:10maybe you're taking a shot here on the Guardians today.
15:12But it's tough.
15:13It buoys your pitcher.
15:14If it was somebody else, like, you know what, a little bit more confidence.
15:16But I got to tell you, if maybe an underdog price comes into it,
15:18maybe it is the Guardians tonight.
15:21Eight and a half.
15:22Is that total?
15:23The Yankees just eight and seven here in the month of August.
15:27They lost the final two games, including in Williamsport
15:30at the Little League Classic against the Tigers this weekend.
15:33What is so fascinating about the Guardians,
15:36what a streaky team that still holds a two-and-a-half game lead
15:39atop the American League Central.
15:41Really been that way for Cleveland since the end of July.
15:44A five-game win streak to end out July into early August.
15:47Then a seven-game losing skid.
15:49Then a five-game win streak.
15:51And then the Guardians took that five-game win streak to Milwaukee
15:54and got swept by the Brewers this weekend.
15:57They continue the road trip in the Bronx against the Yankees.
16:01Donnie, it's always fascinating, right?
16:02Because as we near October,
16:04it seems as though the sets take on an added layer of significance,
16:08especially when they are between two very good teams
16:12battling for that number one overall seed in the American League.
16:16Do you put any extra weight into this series in the Bronx this week?
16:20No, not necessarily.
16:22It's too early for that.
16:23And granted, when you say, well, over a major league baseball season,
16:25is it technically getting late?
16:26Yes, it is.
16:27But you still have roughly, let's just say, a month-and-a-half left to go.
16:30Each and every game matters.
16:32Now, granted, you get under the microscope, right,
16:34under those final two weeks of the season,
16:36where now you're really starting to look at some of those magic numbers
16:39in order to clinch your actual division
16:41and or just a wild-card spot at that point.
16:44They understand, the players themselves, Ben,
16:46the magnitude of this series and what it possibly means,
16:48as maybe it's on a collision course where you win this series,
16:51you might be in the driver's seat now
16:53to actually be the number one seed in the AL.
16:55We understand that.
16:56But from a day-to-day basis, baseball players can't look like that.
16:59There's way too many games in front of them to say,
17:01whew, look at that, we won this series.
17:03Then you lose your next three games.
17:05You gave up all the ground in that series,
17:07as opposed to if it was the final series in September.
17:09So big series nonetheless.
17:11Do or die scenario for either one of these teams?
17:13Not necessarily.
17:14A marquee matchup in the American League,
17:17a marquee matchup within the NL and the National League East
17:21starts tonight in Atlanta.
17:23Reinaldo Lopez makes his return for the Braves.
17:26Last pitched on July 28, three innings of shutout work.
17:30That's been a similar story for Lopez,
17:32but left the start early with right forearm tightness.
17:36He is now back after nearly a month off.
17:38He did lose his last two complete starts,
17:41not complete games, but full starts that he made for Atlanta.
17:45When he left, and as of this moment, I guess you could say,
17:48he has a 206 ERA.
17:51He's probably not going to hit the innings minimum this year,
17:54but that number would be the best ERA in all of MLB.
17:58He gets the start, but with the Braves as a home underdog
18:02against Zach Wheeler and Philadelphia.
18:04Minus 134 is that number tonight between the Phils and the Braves,
18:08a divisional rivalry.
18:10What do you like for the opener in the ATL?
18:13Yeah, the Phils would be a very popular public favorite tonight,
18:16and rightfully so.
18:17Zach Wheeler on the mound,
18:18one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball on the road.
18:20Now, granted, you're looking at a Philly team
18:22that hasn't played all that great of baseball,
18:24and that's why that number is not minus 150 or higher.
18:27You could say Reinaldo Lopez,
18:28one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball,
18:30but what are we actually getting out of Reinaldo Lopez in the start?
18:33Roughly off for about a month in Major League Baseball.
18:35Very hard just to pick up exactly where you left off,
18:37which he was one of the better pitchers in Major League Baseball.
18:40The one saving grace for the Atlanta Braves is, as I said,
18:42the Phillies have been playing great baseball,
18:44which includes their bats,
18:45but they also gave a couple guys some extended days off.
18:48Bryce Harper didn't play Sunday, had a day off Monday,
18:50now coming back Tuesday, same thing for JT Ramuto.
18:53Maybe tonight is the night they get it going,
18:55and also, if we're looking at the better pitcher on the mound tonight, Ben,
18:58it's the Philadelphia Phillies' Zach Wheeler.
19:00He's been fantastic all season long.
19:02Are we taking a question mark on what we're getting out of Lopez?
19:04That's advantage Philadelphia Phillies.
19:06You just saw Austin Riley down for six to eight weeks,
19:09which basically covers the entirety of the regular season.
19:11They hope to get him back if they make the postseason in those early rounds.
19:15They just don't have enough firepower tonight.
19:17If Zach Wheeler is just average Zach Wheeler, what does that mean for Atlanta?
19:21Two or three runs, the Phillies should be able to win this ballgame here.
19:24It's a cheap price because, well, the Phillies,
19:26or should I say how well the Phillies have not been playing as opposed to playing?
19:29Well, I'm still going to take the Phil's and Wheeler tonight, Phil.
19:32The Phil's 8-8 in August.
19:34They had a chance for a four-game weekend sweep over the Washington Nationals.
19:38As Donnie mentioned, they rested a couple of guys.
19:40They lost that series finale, but they had one four straight
19:44entering Sunday's game against the Nats.
19:48This is a huge one, not necessarily a divisional battle,
19:52as we might have expected at this stage in late August between these two teams,
19:58but still a very important series.
20:00Philadelphia, seven-game lead for the top spot in the National League East.
20:04As you see there, a minus 1,600 favorite to win the divisional crown.
20:08It would be the first time in the last seven MLB seasons
20:12a team not named Atlanta, who has won six straight NL East titles,
20:16has won this division.
20:18But the Braves still a playoff team as of this very moment,
20:21but it's getting difficult.
20:23One-and-a-half game lead only for Atlanta over the Mets
20:25for that third and final NL wildcard spot.
20:28And the bad news for the Braves yesterday,
20:30Austin Riley is out with a fractured right hand
20:33for the next six to eight weeks.
20:34For a team that has been struggling offensively,
20:37for a team that does not have many stars left in the lineup,
20:40to lose Austin Riley is tough.
20:43Although Chris Sale and Zach Wheeler will not face off this week DRS,
20:47it is important for the Cy Young perspective.
20:50Again, another opportunity for Wheeler to claw his way back into this race.
20:56His last start in July gave up seven earned against the Yankees.
20:59It really made his price a much longer number.
21:03But in August, he has given up only three earned runs in three starts.
21:08He has won two of the three.
21:09He has swollen five with a 272 ERA.
21:13Right now, it is Chris Sale at a minus 300 number
21:16to win the National League Cy Young Award.
21:18Wheeler at plus 400.
21:21This start could go a long way if there is any hope
21:24for Wheeler to contend for that Cy Young Award.
21:26And also a long way for the Atlanta Braves.
21:29If the Braves lose this series, you're probably putting a wrap on the NL East.
21:33If the Braves can win this series,
21:34then there's still hope that the Phillies aren't playing well
21:36and we can maybe make back that five to six games.
21:38And away you go.
21:39There's a lot riding on the line, which includes awards
21:41and also maybe putting this division to bed.
21:44As I said, I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to win tonight.
21:46Better lineup, better pitcher, even though it's on the road,
21:48the Phillies should rebound with a victory tonight for me.
21:52And these two teams will face off once again,
21:54a four-game set that starts in Philadelphia next Thursday.
21:58The Braves have won four of six in the season set so far.
22:01More games on this Tuesday in MLB next.
22:04Will the Astros keep it rolling today in Houston
22:07against the Boston Red Sox?
22:09Houston has won 11 of its last 12 games.
22:12The Astros have opened up now a five-game lead
22:15for that top spot in the American League West.
22:18And the Red Sox need to rally.
22:20They're four and a half games back of the Royals
22:22for the third and final American League wildcard spot.
22:26The Astros walking it off yesterday, courtesy of Yiner Diaz,
22:30a walk-off solo shot and that home run.
22:33Houston was a favorite yesterday.
22:35They win with Yusei Kikuchi on the bump.
22:37They're a home favorite once again today with Ronald Blanco.
22:40Minus 126, that updated number on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
22:44The over-under stands at eight and a half.
22:46It's game two in H-Town.
22:48In H-Town, what's the play?
22:50It's times like this that make it tough to handicap.
22:53You see that Houston Astros lineup against right-handed pitching
22:55over the past 30 days?
22:56It's been fantastic.
22:57Bregman, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Singleton, Caratini,
23:00all with elevated weighted-on-base percentage numbers.
23:03Take a look at Nick Pivetta.
23:04Over the past 30 days, he's faced 83 batters.
23:06Look at his ISO against a 346, which is astronomically high,
23:10a weighted-on-base percentage of 389.
23:12And quite frankly, lefty and righty batters are tattooing him.
23:15But what happens if I told you today, Ben,
23:17over the past 60 days in this Major League Baseball season,
23:20just looking at XFIP numbers, there are 24 pitchers on the card today.
23:24Minimum of 20 innings pitched over the past 60 days.
23:27How about this?
23:28The best pitcher on the card?
23:30It's Nick Pivetta.
23:31So make it make sense at this point.
23:33A guy with a 5.17 ERA over the past 60 days getting hammered left and right.
23:38We're trying to tell you that he's just getting unlucky at this time.
23:41Let's take a look at the Boston Red Sox on the opposite side
23:43going against Ronel Blanco.
23:45You know what Blanco struggles with over the past 59 at-bats
23:48over left-handed batters?
23:49Yeah, he can't get any of those lefties out.
23:51You know who has a lot of left-handed batters?
23:53It's the Boston Red Sox.
23:54Yesterday, I told you, I thought that game would be able to sneak over the total
23:58because sometimes in a hitter's ballpark,
24:00you just have to ride with the batters as opposed to the pitchers.
24:03I'm going to do the same thing tonight.
24:04I'm going to say I'm not trusting Pivetta's 3.14 dominant XFIP number.
24:09I'm going to trust a little bit more of those last 60 days
24:11of having that ERA of close to five with a good hitting lineup in order.
24:15Let's go over tonight in this game between Boston and Houston.
24:19Over 8.5, Jeremy Pena has been great offensively.
24:23Alex Bregman has been great offensively.
24:26It has been sparking this Astros run.
24:29At the end of June, the Seattle Mariners had a three-game lead
24:32in the American League West.
24:33Now, nearly two months later, it's the Astros up by five games.
24:39Speaking of Seattle, they are just 12-16 since the All-Star break,
24:45and they're an underdog once again tonight in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
24:50L.A., nearly a dollar-and-a-half favorite.
24:52Walker Buehler makes his second start since his return in the middle of June
24:58after his return of nearly two years away from MLB.
25:02Eight-and-a-half the total tonight, late night at the Ravine.
25:05What do you like?
25:07Each day is supposed to be an individual handicap,
25:09but sometimes you just find yourself looking at this game going,
25:12all right, Walker Buehler's coming back to the mound once again,
25:14only 18 batters that he's faced over the past 30 days,
25:17and he's probably still finding his way.
25:19So five innings and four earned runs is probably what you're going to get.
25:22And then you say to yourself, oh, well, who's going to score those four runs
25:25for the Seattle Mariners at this point just watching them go?
25:28You look at the lineup.
25:29The numbers actually make sense to take the Mariners tonight.
25:32The better pitcher on the mound is actually going to be
25:35with the Mariners and Bryce Miller.
25:36An ERA of under three and an exit number of 3.67 over the past 60 days.
25:41They should win this baseball game.
25:43But I'm saying to you as a handicapper and a gambler,
25:46I don't know if I can back the Mariners right now
25:48because sometimes you look and say, Donnie, just trust the numbers,
25:51which would tell me Robles or Rosarania, Raleigh, Polanco, Raleigh,
25:56Turner, and Rojas are all positive batters tonight going up
25:59against a struggling pitcher.
26:00And I can't tell you that I actually believe that at this point.
26:03So this is one I'm just sitting out to watch it
26:05because if I wake up tomorrow and it's five to one Mariners,
26:08you know what?
26:09That's what made sense.
26:10But I wake up tomorrow and it's three to one Dodgers.
26:13I'm like, yeah, exactly.
26:14The Mariners just can't hit.
26:16Yeah, it's going to be interesting.
26:18These are the games for the Dodgers that they have to keep winning
26:21to keep pace.
26:22You also want to see that postseason staff potentially start to take shape.
26:27Is Walker Bueller going to be in the bullpen for October
26:30and beyond for Dave Roberts?
26:32Or could he be a game three starter or something of the sort?
26:37He wasn't bad in his return since the middle of June in nearly two months.
26:42It's been a shaky season, though, overall for Bueller.
26:46The Mariners, they've lost six of their last seven, seven and nine in August.
26:51The Dodgers have won seven of their last ten.
26:54Just trying to hold on to a three-game lead in the National League West.
26:57The Dodgers have won the division ten of the last 11 years.
27:00They entered this year as that super team in the major leagues
27:04as a minus 650 favorite to win the NLS.
27:07There's still minus 700, but it's just a three-game lead
27:10over the surging San Diego Padres,
27:13who won the opener yesterday in Southern California,
27:16five to three over the Twins.
27:18Jackson Merrill delivers once again.
27:20Michael King picks up another victory,
27:22and Robert Suarez gets his 28th save of the year.
27:26San Diego a slight, and I mean very slight, home underdog today
27:29against the Twins.
27:30It's a virtual pick-em.
27:31Minus 112 for Minnesota, minus 104 other side for San Diego.
27:36Total seven and a half.
27:38What's the play here in San Diego?
27:40I think we say under the total,
27:42Martin Perez hasn't been bad the last 30 days.
27:4497 batters that he's faced, a 149 iso against,
27:47and a weighted on base percentage of 258.
27:49That should be manageable and be able to hold down
27:51that Minnesota Twins offense.
27:52Bailey Obre on the opposite side.
27:54Maybe a name that you're not all that familiar with,
27:56but on the card today at a 24 pitchers, Ben,
27:58he's number four with an XFIP number of 3.47,
28:01and if you're the ERA guy out there,
28:03it's a 1.92 over the past 60 days.
28:06How does that equate to his last 30 days and 129 batters he's faced?
28:09How about an 068 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 194?
28:12The Padres lineup looks great.
28:14It's been crushing right-handed pitching,
28:16but you are in a true pitcher's ballpark against pitchers
28:19that make sense against these lineups.
28:21I don't know if we get eight runs tonight.
28:23Give me the under in a coin flip game.
28:25The Twins a very slight favorite.
28:27The Royals a huge home favorite against the Angels.
28:30They were victorious yesterday.
28:31Cole Reagan's nearly a $2 favorite against the Halos.
28:34The Guardians an underdog in the Bronx.
28:36They have a two and a half game lead over both Minnesota
28:39and KC at this moment.
28:41Could be less than that come a Wednesday morning.
28:44Let's finish out with the game at Citi Field.
28:46The Mets walk it off yesterday,
28:47courtesy of a solo shot from Francisco Alvarez
28:51in the bottom of the ninth.
28:52They are a home favorite once again against the O's
28:55who are just 15-15 since the All-Star break.
28:58A quick pick here, DRS, before you go.
29:01Yeah, let's go Mets in this one again.
29:03Dean Kramer struggling over the past 60 days
29:05with his XFIP numbers here, similar to what we saw last night.
29:07I think maybe the slightly better pitcher on the mound
29:09for the Mets and their home.
29:10Maybe the Mets pick up another victory here.
29:13Jose Quintana gets the start today for the Amazons.
29:17They only trail Atlanta by a game and a half.
29:19DRS, we'll talk tomorrow.
29:21The Early Line continues up next here on Sports.