"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (20/06/2024) dengan Tema Dampak Tekanan Rupiah, Hingga Penantian Kebijakan Suku Bunga BI".
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00:00From information about Pemirsa's remittance, let's go to the world's economic agenda.
00:04Among Pemirsa's remittance from the domestic market, there is an announcement of Indonesian Bank's Suku Bunga today.
00:09Then there is the level of Indonesia's deposit facilities, which will also be announced by the Indonesian Bank today.
00:14The main Suku Bunga is the PBOC or Central China Bank's credit in June, Singapore's unemployment rate,
00:20and Malaysia's trade balance in May, as well as Hong Kong's unemployment rate in May.
00:26From the U.S., there is a claim of early unemployment in the U.S. and U.S. crude oil inventory.
00:32Let's go to Pemirsa to see what the remittance agenda is like.
00:37There are many Pemirsa's remittances from RUPS, including MDRN, SMRA, BKSL, Unilever,
00:44then there is also IMAS and CMNP.
00:48Meanwhile, there is a remittance from HYGM, KBLM, and several other companies, as well as the payment of cash dividends.
00:59Let's go to Pemirsa to see an update from the Asian Stock Exchange this morning.
01:05In the middle of the closing or holiday, the U.S. Stock Exchange, Pemirsa,
01:19Okay, we will see an update from the Asian Stock Exchange, Pemirsa, and this morning,
01:24we have contacted Mas Raden Bagus Bimal, the founder of the stock exchange,
01:29to discuss a number of sentiments, including the value of the Rupiah exchange.
01:33Good morning, Mas Raden.
01:38Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
01:40Good morning, Mas Raden. How are you?
01:42I'm fine.
01:43Thank you for your time this morning, Mas Raden.
01:46Let's start with the Rupiah exchange.
01:49Maybe because it has reached 16,400 Rupiah,
01:52Indonesia has made a lot of efforts to get rid of the weakening,
01:59but I think it is still at 16,400 Rupiah.
02:04In your opinion, how much should we pay attention to this?
02:08Should we be worried?
02:10Or is it normal because the U.S. dollar is also strong?
02:16Yes, I think the phenomenon that is happening right now,
02:20where our Rupiah continues to weaken,
02:22even at a higher level than the weakening that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic,
02:28the conditions are very different.
02:30The current weakness is more due to the enormous dollar inflation.
02:34Even if we look at some of the factors in our market right now,
02:41where the position of some of our company's financial reports is actually just fine.
02:45However, investors are concerned,
02:48and are more likely to reduce their position in certain stocks.
02:53And if we know now,
02:55maybe if the Rupiah is not yet too affected by Kinerja,
03:00because if we look at the financial reports,
03:03it can be said that it is still quite good for the middle of 2024.
03:07But investors anticipate what will happen if the Rupiah continues to hold at a high level right now,
03:13if it lasts until the end of the year, or even until the beginning of the year.
03:17So, in my opinion, investors related to the value of the Rupiah exchange
03:21must pay attention to the value of the Rupiah exchange for 6 months,
03:24or even until the first quarter of 2025.
03:28Okay, so the value of the Rupiah exchange still has to be a special attention, right?
03:32Before we continue, we update Pemirsa,
03:34the position of the Asian exchange in the following graphic data.
03:39In the middle of the holiday, the US-Pemirsa exchange and the European exchange tend to weaken.
03:45Nikkei fell 0.72%, Singapore's Street Time fell 0.07%,
03:50South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.13%.
03:55These are some data from the main index, the regional area of Asia,
04:01which we captured a few minutes ago.
04:03Again, we discussed with Mr. Raden.
04:06So, how far will the movement of the value of the Rupiah exchange affect our IHSG?
04:13Yes, I think if our Rupiah is above Rp. 16,000 until the end of the year,
04:20this will make our IHSG position continue to be stressed.
04:23Even for now, if we can say, in the medium term,
04:27our IHSG has actually been flat for quite a long time.
04:30It has been in a relatively long consolidation condition.
04:34First, if the value of the Rupiah exchange is not improving,
04:38or even if there are things that can actually get close to Rp. 17,000,
04:43for example, of course this will make investors worried.
04:48We don't wait until next year.
04:50Even at the end of this year, if the Rupiah can get close to Rp. 17,000,
04:55our IHSG can reach below Rp. 6,600.
04:58Of course, this is a concern that needs to be concentrated
05:01because our Rupiah exchange value has been running for almost a quarter,
05:06at a fairly high level,
05:07and this has made some emitters start to pay attention
05:11to the course differences related to the decrease in Rupiah exchange value.
05:15Our Rupiah exchange value at Rp. 16,400
05:19turned out to be the lowest in the last four years.
05:22Then, throughout this year, it has dropped by about 6%.
05:28So, what needs to be done?
05:31It seems that there are no signs that our Rupiah will experience strengthening.
05:35Even if it strengthens, maybe it will be thin.
05:37Moreover, today there will be a result from the Indonesian Governor's Meeting in June
05:41related to the decision of the Bunga tribe,
05:43and maybe it will also discuss other economic projections,
05:46including the value of this Rupiah exchange.
05:48What needs to be done in the middle of Rupiah, which is indeed at Rp. 16,400?
05:55Yes, I think it's quite interesting.
05:57At today's meeting, we are waiting for a surprise
06:00that may happen in a close decision today.
06:04I think the market has guessed that the current condition,
06:09Bank Indonesia has decided to place the Bunga tribe in the same position as before.
06:16However, if later there are things that are a surprise,
06:21this is what the current investors are waiting for.
06:23Because, as far as we know, the current condition,
06:26our market condition can be said to be relatively flat.
06:29There is no growth in transaction activity or trading in our currency market.
06:34If later there is a surprise, for example, Bank Indonesia lowers the Bunga tribe,
06:38of course this will be a surprise that is quite interesting for the market.
06:42For now, if we look at the current conditions,
06:47what do we need to do?
06:48In my opinion, for now, when our Rupiah weakens and the dollar strengthens,
06:54it does not immediately make the emittance of foreign currencies also strengthen.
06:59As we can see in the commodity sector,
07:01as soon as the dollar strengthens, it is not accompanied by the strengthening of commodities.
07:06This means that the value of the Rupiah exchange is not linearly
07:10directly making one emittance stronger or weaker.
07:14So we have to be able to pay more attention,
07:16whether there is an emittance that has an export or import that will affect
07:22the level of hedging owned by the company,
07:25how big is the resistance of the emittance.
07:28I think we have to be able to pay attention to that
07:31in order to be able to choose the best stock at the current Rupiah level.
07:35So you feel that the current Rupiah condition
07:38has not directly affected the stocks that may be sensitive,
07:43the Rupiah that is either damaged or benefited by a high dollar exposure
07:48or the main material is mostly imported.
07:51You haven't seen a correlation that is very impactful.
07:55But is it possible that if the one who benefits, we hedge, it's okay.
08:01But if later the one with a negative impact
08:05because of the sentiment of this Rupiah weakening,
08:07should it be avoided first or how?
08:09I think sooner or later it will happen.
08:12In fact, like in the paper sector, in INKP or Tekim,
08:16this response to Rupiah weakening is of course positive for INKP and Tekim.
08:21If we look at the last few times,
08:23the movement in INKP is quite good in responding to Rupiah exchange value weakening.
08:28Because INKP does have an advantage there.
08:32But if we look at the ups and downs,
08:37there are not as many weaknesses in Rupiah exchange value.
08:40That's what I said earlier.
08:42When Rupiah weakens and there is an exposure that is benefited,
08:46we have to look again.
08:47Is the exposure really ready?
08:50In terms of production capacity,
08:52for example, if it's from the industry or maybe from the consumer sector,
08:57if it really needs to spend,
09:00the need for the household expenses, for example.
09:03It must be analyzed further, Mr. Raden.
09:06It must be seen further what the impact is like, how big it is.
09:09Until there is only a momentary euphoria of sentiment.
09:11So later when we join in, it turns out to be stuck like that.
09:15Yes, that's right, Ms. Prisana.
09:17Mr. Raden, we continue with the recommendation of the stock of choice
09:20and also discuss a little about the Gotoni stock that continues to weaken.
09:24Don't be a spectator, stay with us in Power Breakfast.
09:29Thank you for joining us again in the market segment
09:32discussing with Mr. Raden Bagusmi, the founder of Warcop Stock.
09:35We have discussed sentiment related to the weakness of Rupiah exchange value
09:38which has reached its lowest point in the last four years in our capital market.
09:43We will move on to the sentiment of the price index on the joint stock market
09:46which still fails to survive in the green zone after the long vacation of Idul Adhani.
09:52Mr. Raden, yesterday morning it was opened to the public,
09:54but the ending at the end was still red.
09:57You said earlier that the consolidation was quite long.
09:59Is this a medium-term, short-term term that is meant in the consolidation trend?
10:07Yes, I think the IHSG is currently at the level of consolidation for the last two years,
10:14even two and a half years.
10:15So from 2022 to now, at level 6,600,
10:20this is an important support for the IHSG.
10:23Because indeed, if we look at the growth of financial reports,
10:28which is indeed lower this year,
10:31makes our IHSG position unable to strengthen this year.
10:35In fact, these big cap stocks are the reason for the weakening of the IHSG position this year,
10:41so we can't say it's an uptrend or a downtrend for the medium-term in the IHSG.
10:47What about the short-term?
10:49For the short-term, for example, let's see,
10:52for this year, our IHSG position from the beginning of the year until now,
10:55more or less, there is a weakness of around 600 points.
10:57So we can say that in a short period of time,
11:01our IHSG position is currently in a downtrend condition.
11:04In fact, for some medium-terms, especially banking,
11:08it is also a downtrend in line with the IHSG position.
11:11Okay, so what strategies should be done and what are the recommendations?
11:15We have summarized in the following chart,
11:17the recommendations of the stock warehouse funders.
11:21First, Pemirsa is recommended to use S-Hardware.
11:24It is recommended to buy with an entry of IDR 855,
11:28then a target of IDR 910, stop loss at IDR 840.
11:32Next, Pemirsa is also recommended to use BBRI stock,
11:36which is recommended to buy with an entry of IDR 4,000,
11:40a target of IDR 4,900, and a stop loss at IDR 3,800.
11:45Then, Brisk buys with an entry of IDR 2,380,
11:50then a target of IDR 2,580, and a stop loss at IDR 2,350.
11:57Next, Pemirsa NCKL buys with an entry of IDR 990,
12:03a target of IDR 1,060, and a stop loss at IDR 985.
12:11Okay, let's start with S-Hardware first.
12:15Mr. Raden, what is interesting?
12:18Yes, during last June, the position of S-Hardware was quite strong.
12:23It did not weaken, and even from mid-May,
12:26we can say that in a short period of time, it slightly strengthened,
12:30and still has a tendency to strengthen until the end of June.
12:34That's why I recommend Aces stock to be able to enter today
12:39with an entry point of IDR 855, and a strength target of IDR 910.
12:46In my opinion, this is one of the sectors that is also quite interesting,
12:49because it is also strongly supported by the strengthening of financial reports
12:52for now in S-Hardware.
12:54Well, S-Hardware is also planning to share cash dividends,
12:58IDR 33.5 per share.
13:01Don't you see that we are already a bit late to enter S-Hardware?
13:07Yes, I think it's quite interesting to reach the target I mentioned earlier, IDR 910,
13:12until the date of the cumdead is approaching.
13:14This is of course an interesting thing for investors.
13:17We will wait to see if investors will take dividends on the date of the cumdead
13:21or just take capital gains for S-Hardware.
13:23I think both have a chance in the short term to have a positive trend for S-Hardware.
13:29Okay, the cumdead is scheduled for June 19, 2024,
13:35and the cash dividend is scheduled for June 21, 2024.
13:38The dividend payment is on July 5, 2024.
13:41Is there still a chance?
13:42What is the strategy for IDR 860 right now?
13:47I think it can be entered between IDR 855 or IDR 860.
13:52I think it's not a problem.
13:53The target of IDR 910 has a good potential yield,
13:57with the stop-loss level of IDR 840.
13:59So, the stop-loss and the target are quite measured
14:02and also have a potential reward that is quite interesting for S-Hardware.
14:06If we look at the candlestick, what pattern is it forming?
14:10And what is the trend for S-Hardware?
14:14The strength of the candlestick is quite interesting.
14:17After there was a doji on the day before yesterday's holiday,
14:20then yesterday on Wednesday, after we had a holiday,
14:23the strength was quite good.
14:26This is above the support level.
14:28The candlestick is also quite interesting.
14:29The trend is still uptrend.
14:31So, in my opinion,
14:32in a technical analysis,
14:34the candlestick is also quite interesting to be maintained at the moment.
14:38Okay, that's the recommendation for S-Hardware.
14:40You don't see a negative impact on the Rupiah right now,
14:43the Rupiah gain, right?
14:44Not yet, right?
14:45Or there is no connection at all?
14:47I think for S-Hardware, in the short term,
14:49we can still see the target up to IDR 910.
14:53But for the medium term,
14:54we need to pay attention to other things.
14:56Unless the current investor only enters for a short period of time.
15:01Okay, that's Pomi Arusa's recommendation for S-Hardware from Mr. Raden.
15:05Next, we will discuss about BBRI.
15:07BBRI itself has touched the lowest level in the last year,
15:10at IDR 4,090 in trading,
15:15maybe last week, the IDR 4,090.
15:18What is interesting about BBRI,
15:20that it is included in one of your four recommendations and choices?
15:24Yes, in my opinion,
15:25BBRI is one of the emitters that we can't leave.
15:30Remember, for the medium term,
15:32I recommend to be able to make purchases in BBRI,
15:36in addition to the fact that the decline is already very significant,
15:39then foreign investors are also dominating in selling.
15:43Because in the current position,
15:45we very rarely find domestic investors
15:48who are brave enough to make a cut loss
15:50or sell at the current price level.
15:52Only foreign investors do that.
15:55If we look at it now,
15:56when foreign investors have started to reduce their sales,
16:01I am very confident that our domestic investors are waiting for that
16:05and will immediately make a reverse.
16:07In addition to that,
16:09if we look at BBRI's kinergy,
16:11in my opinion, if there is a report in the second quarter
16:14that experienced a decline,
16:15for example, there is a decline of about 5%,
16:18or even at the level of 7%,
16:20a weakening of the financial report,
16:22this is already reflected in the current price.
16:24So in my opinion, the current price is already reflecting
16:27BBRI's financial kinergy,
16:29even though there will be a potential for a decline,
16:33for example in the second quarter.
16:34If in the second quarter,
16:36there is still a weakening of the financial report,
16:38I am confident that BBRI will immediately have a weakening.
16:41What makes Aasing sell in BBRI?
16:45I think there are many factors.
16:47After the rebalancing from MSCI yesterday,
16:49there may be a weight reduction in the BBRI stock,
16:52and there is an increase in weight in the BBCA stock,
16:54which we see is quite different,
16:56the movement of Aasing investors
16:58between BBRI and BBCA,
17:00so we see this as something normal,
17:03it has happened very often,
17:05considering that this is not the first time.
17:07We just have to be patient,
17:09wait for the best momentum,
17:11when Aasing investors reduce weight,
17:13then we can go in to accumulate BBRI.
17:16Okay, so if you want to look for a good stock,
17:19but there is a discount, this is the opportunity,
17:21namely BBRI, right?
17:23Yes, Mrs. Brice.
17:24Okay, that's it for BBRI,
17:26you can buy at IDR 4,000,
17:27the target is IDR 4,900,
17:29the surplus is IDR 3,800.
17:31IDR 4,900 is the middle target, right?
17:33Yes.
17:34Okay.
17:35Brice,
17:36from so many BBRI banks,
17:38why do you also include Brice?
17:42Yes, Brice is for a short time,
17:44we see there is a very good pattern,
17:47after the holiday yesterday,
17:49yesterday it was a rebound,
17:51quite big, quite high,
17:53and I'm sure there is a good momentum,
17:56for the last few days,
17:58especially this week,
17:59at least until Friday,
18:01the position of Brice is currently
18:03we target is not too far,
18:05it is at the level of around 2,580,
18:08more or less around 200 points,
18:10from the entry level,
18:12so I think the potential reward
18:14that can be obtained from Brice is quite interesting,
18:17considering other shortfalls,
18:19for now,
18:20graphically and technically,
18:22Brice is not as good,
18:23I believe today,
18:25there will still be a direct
18:27strengthening for Brice,
18:29considering the momentum yesterday,
18:31it's still quite good for this morning.
18:33Okay.
18:34You see the momentum,
18:35short term,
18:36quite interesting for Brice,
18:37and this morning,
18:38it rose again 2%,
18:39IDR 2,460,
18:40still interesting,
18:41if you just want to enter,
18:42can you reach IDR 2,460,
18:43with the target at IDR 2,580?
18:46Yes, I think we wait 5-10 minutes,
18:48after the opening,
18:50I'm afraid there will be a potential
18:52decline again,
18:54in the next 5-10 minutes,
18:56we just wait 5-10 minutes,
18:58to get the best price.
19:00Okay.
19:01Next is NCKL.
19:05This is also one of the M810,
19:06which I think is also very interesting,
19:08among other stocks,
19:10which at the moment,
19:11the movement is a bit confusing,
19:13because NCKL has been strengthening,
19:15even though there was a weakness,
19:17in a few days,
19:18but until the closing,
19:20it managed to strengthen again.
19:21So in my opinion,
19:22this is one of the stocks,
19:23which is technically quite good,
19:26then also in terms of composition,
19:28brokers who make purchases,
19:30are also quite good,
19:31so we recommend,
19:32indeed for the short term,
19:34at least until this week,
19:35with the target of strengthening,
19:37NCKL at IDR 1,060.
19:39I think IDR 1,000 to IDR 1,060,
19:41this can be a level of take profit,
19:44for NCKL.
19:45NCKL has strengthened by 4%,
19:47in 4% more,
19:48in the last week,
19:50and today it rose again by 0.5%,
19:52at IDR 1,005.
19:53Do you see the opportunity,
19:54technically,
19:55this is still very interesting,
19:56in the short term?
19:58Yes, Mrs. Priset.
19:59Okay.
20:00There is a target at IDR 1,060,
20:03then entry at IDR 990,
20:07and stop loss below IDR 985.
20:10Those are the four recommendations,
20:11S-Hardware, BBRI, BRIS, NCKL.
20:13If I look at the analysis,
20:15the choices of Mr. Raden,
20:17most of them are more about,
20:19the technical potential,
20:22at the moment.
20:23Indeed, the strategy is the most appropriate,
20:24in the middle of consolidation,
20:25medium-term,
20:26and bearish,
20:27short-term,
20:28price-to-join index.
20:30Yes, Mrs. Priset.
20:31If we look at the financial energy,
20:34if we can compare,
20:36compared to the previous year,
20:37of course, it is not better,
20:38compared to the previous year.
20:39So, we have to be able to assess,
20:41for the current time,
20:43which one has a good enough technical,
20:45for us to enter,
20:46either for trading,
20:47or for the medium-term.
20:49Okay.
20:50That's it,
20:51for the analysis of the stock choice,
20:52bearish,
20:53and it's not even 10 minutes,
20:55as Mr. Raden said.
20:57It's only 9 past 6 minutes,
20:59the price-to-join index,
21:01so far,
21:02shows a slight increase of 0.2%,
21:05or 0,
21:06yes, around that,
21:0711 points,
21:08at 6,738,
21:10strong.
21:11With the exchange rate,
21:12against the US dollar,
21:13also strong,
21:1416,349.
21:17And more completely,
21:18Mrs. Meersa,
21:19about the opening of the trade,
21:20we present Usai Jeda,
21:21stay with us,
21:22in the market bus segment.
21:24Thank you,
21:25for coming back with us,
21:26in the market bus segment,
21:27Mrs. Meersa.
21:28We are already in the last segment,
21:29from information about the capital market,
21:31and we will update,
21:32the price-to-join index position,
21:34so far,
21:35it's still strong,
21:36but it's getting thinner,
21:370.04%,
21:38or only 5 points,
21:39at 6,733,
21:41and the US dollar,
21:42against the US dollar,
21:43strong,
21:44at 16,349,
21:46up 0.09%.
21:48With the stock market,
21:49which is a gainer,
21:50based on value,
21:51is BBRI,
21:52up 2%,
21:53at 4,180,
21:54TOSK,
21:55or Topindo,
21:56Solusi Komunika,
21:57up 3.28%,
21:59BRPT,
22:00up 2.76%,
22:02CAMP,
22:039.34%,
22:04ACST,
22:05up 12.9%,
22:07at 105,
22:09then,
22:10some others,
22:11like PDPP,
22:12then,
22:13MBMA,
22:14BUMI,
22:15and also,
22:16TINS.
22:17Next,
22:18Mrs. Meersa,
22:19Multihana Creasindo,
22:20down almost 3%,
22:21Cardic Aeroservices,
22:23or CAS,
22:24down 2.36%,
22:26ISSP,
22:27WIR,
22:28GIGAR,
22:29GPSO,
22:30SNLK,
22:31MARK,
22:32PMMP,
22:33AALI,
22:34also in the Top Losers category.
22:37As far as you can see,
22:39the opening of the trade this morning,
22:41Mr. Raden,
22:42which is mostly filled by
22:44stocks like BUMI,
22:46okay,
22:47still rolling,
22:49then,
22:50there is BBRI,
22:52with an increase of almost 2%,
22:54is it still interesting to be paid?
22:58Yes,
22:59in my opinion,
23:00BBRI stocks
23:01are just the beginning,
23:02so,
23:03no need to worry,
23:04those who haven't made a purchase,
23:05just be patient,
23:06every time there is a weakness,
23:07we can enter,
23:08to buy BBRI stocks.
23:10Okay.
23:11As for our opening this morning,
23:13this is actually not much different
23:14from yesterday,
23:15so,
23:16we need to dive deeper,
23:18related to each technical,
23:19in each stock.
23:20Okay.
23:21A little about GOTO,
23:22this is also a stock,
23:23the term is a stock,
23:24a million people,
23:25maybe,
23:26because the market cap
23:27is also quite large.
23:29Well,
23:30this morning,
23:31there is an increase of 2% at 51%,
23:33what is your analysis
23:34about the weakness of GOTO,
23:35that reached the GOCAP stock?
23:39Yes,
23:40in my opinion,
23:41the key word is,
23:42as Ms. Prisa said,
23:43GOTO is a million people stock,
23:45a stock that circulates in the public,
23:47very, very large,
23:49with a market cap
23:50as large as it is now,
23:51so, it cannot be denied,
23:52that,
23:53this GOTO stock
23:54can affect
23:55the market condition,
23:56for the current condition.
23:58If we look at
23:59the GOTO stock itself,
24:00recently,
24:01even in the results of the EURPS yesterday,
24:03there is almost no
24:04positive sentiment,
24:05towards GOTO,
24:06only related to
24:07buyback sentiment,
24:08which is currently
24:09considered
24:10to be able to give
24:11a little fresh air,
24:12for the GOTO investor,
24:13because the value,
24:14in my opinion,
24:15is also relatively large,
24:163.2 trillion,
24:18and this is taken
24:19from the corporate share,
24:21in my opinion,
24:22this is an effort
24:23to maintain
24:24the position
24:25of the GOTO stock price,
24:26although we know,
24:27indeed,
24:28the financial situation
24:29has not improved,
24:30then there is information
24:31about the PHK
24:32in Tokopedia,
24:33so,
24:34this is actually
24:35more concerns,
24:36which are concerned
24:37by investors,
24:38so that investors
24:39gather together
24:40to sell,
24:41from this last week.
24:43Okay,
24:44you haven't seen
24:45any positive sentiment
24:46from GOTO,
24:47other than
24:48opportunities,
24:49or,
24:50what is it,
24:51more of an effort
24:52to buyback like that,
24:53so that the price
24:54doesn't get deeper,
24:55like that.
24:56Thank you very much,
24:57Mr. Raden Bagus,
24:58the founder of Warkob stock,
24:59for the recommendation analysis
25:00this morning.
25:01I'm always here for you.
25:03See you again.
25:04Good morning.
25:05Good morning,
25:06Mrs. Prisa.