Hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate di level 6,25%. Kemudian, suku bunga deposito facility tetap 5,50% dan lending facility 7%. Keputusan ini konsisten dengan kebijakan moneter pro stability sebagai langkah pre-emptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali dalam sasaran. Dengan demikian, bank sentral telah mempertahankan BI Rate selama 3 bulan.
BI juga memperkirakan ekonomi global tumbuh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan sebelumnya, mencapai 3,2% pada tahun ini. Hal ini dipicu semakin membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi di India dan China. Meski demikian, Perry Warjiyo juga mengingatkan, ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global masih tetap tinggi, di tengah prospek perekonomian dunia yang lebih kuat.
BI juga memperkirakan ekonomi global tumbuh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan sebelumnya, mencapai 3,2% pada tahun ini. Hal ini dipicu semakin membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi di India dan China. Meski demikian, Perry Warjiyo juga mengingatkan, ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global masih tetap tinggi, di tengah prospek perekonomian dunia yang lebih kuat.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00In this program, we will talk about the latest news on Indonesia's economic development.
00:04We will also talk about the latest news on the economic development of Indonesia.
00:08We will also talk about the latest news on the economic development of Indonesia.
00:12Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:14Back again with me, Prasetyo Yowo, in the Market Review program.
00:18We will talk about the issues of Indonesia's economic development.
00:21You can also watch our live streaming on IDX channel.com.
00:25You can also watch our live streaming on IDX channel.com.
00:27And Mirsa, this time we will discuss with Beirut,
00:30where Indonesia's GDP is back to 6.25 percent.
00:35How will it affect the industry?
00:38Has this decision become a correct policy?
00:41Let's start the Market Review.
00:44Indonesia's Bank is back to 6.25 percent in June.
00:58The BI's decision to defend Beirut based on global economic conditions.
01:05The decision to defend Beirut is 6.25 percent.
01:16The Deposit Facility Flow is still 5.5 percent.
01:22And the Landing Facility Flow is still 7 percent.
01:28This decision is consistent with the Pro Stability Monetary Policy
01:33as a pre-emptive and forward-looking step
01:37to ensure that inflation remains under control
01:41at 2.5 plus minus 1 percent in 2024 and 2025.
01:48This policy is supported by the strengthening of monetary operations
01:55to strengthen the effectiveness of the stabilization of the value of the currency exchange
02:00and the entry of foreign currency flows.
02:04This is the statement of the Indonesian Bank Governor
02:07regarding the results of the meeting of the Indonesian Bank Governor's Council
02:10which again defended the Beirut based on global economic conditions at 6.25 percent.
02:16The Deposit Facility Flow is still 5.5 percent.
02:20And the Landing Facility Flow is still 7 percent.
02:23This decision is consistent with the Pro Stability Monetary Policy
02:26as a pre-emptive and forward-looking step
02:29to ensure that inflation remains under control in the target.
02:33Thus, the Central Bank has maintained Beirut for three months.
02:38Meanwhile, the Bank of Indonesia estimates that the global economy
02:41has grown higher than previously estimated, reaching 3.2 percent this year.
02:46This has been further improved by the economic growth in India and China.
02:50Nevertheless, Mr. Warjo also reminded that the uncertainty of the global financial market remains high
02:55amid a stronger prospect for the world economy.
02:59From Jakarta, the coverage team, IDX Channel.
03:04Okay, the next news is related to the movement of inflation and the value of rupiah
03:09which is indeed a hindrance to the decision of the Indonesian Bank Governor's Council.
03:14Yes, as you can see the movement,
03:16this is the movement of monthly and annual inflation.
03:20Yes, in May 2024, it was noted that there was an inflation,
03:24if we look at it monthly, 0.03 percent.
03:27Meanwhile, if we look at the annual movement, it was noted 2.84 percent.
03:32Indeed, there is a tendency to decrease like this for our inflation rate in the last few months.
03:37And the next is the movement of the value of rupiah exchange.
03:39This needs to be taken into account as well,
03:42where on the 20th of June, our value of rupiah exchange has touched 16,420 rupiah per US dollar.
03:51In the last few days, the trend continues to depreciate.
03:56Okay, viewers, to discuss our topic this time,
04:00related to the Indonesian Bank which again maintained a Biotic rate of 6.25 percent.
04:05We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Retma Gitawira Wasta.
04:10Mr. Retma Gitawira Wasta is the Chairperson of the Association for the Production of Silk and Silk Filaments in Indonesia.
04:15Hello, good morning, Mr. Retma.
04:17Good morning, Mr. Gitawira Wasta.
04:19Okay, and we also have Professor Hermanto Siregar, the Rector of Perbanas University.
04:25Good morning, Professor Hermanto.
04:27Good morning, Mr. Retma.
04:30Okay, thank you for your time.
04:32As mentioned earlier by Governor BI, the Biotic rate is 6.25 percent.
04:36Professor, can you explain what this decision is like?
04:40Is it already correct with the existing conditions?
04:42How do you see the decisions that have been taken in the last three months
04:46because it remains at 6.25 percent for our Biotic rate?
04:50Please, Professor.
04:51Yes, I think the policy is indeed heavy,
04:57but it has to be taken by the Indonesian Bank.
05:03Because if we, like the best practice in various other countries,
05:10refer to the American flower tribe, the FED.
05:16The FED itself has been down for seven consecutive months,
05:22maintaining the level of its flower tribe,
05:24which has not yet been lowered.
05:26So when the Indonesian Bank lowers the flower tribe,
05:32the impact will be that the rupiah will increase.
05:38Meanwhile, if we want to defend the rupiah to be stronger,
05:44the consequence is that it will increase the flower tribe,
05:47and that will make the business world more difficult.
05:50So doing anything is indeed very difficult.
05:53But that is the consequence of a small open economy,
05:57an open economy like Indonesia.
06:00Whether you like it or not, it has to be forced
06:05to refer to the flower tribe from a large country.
06:10The important thing is the timing that has to be taken into account.
06:14It means not to change the flower tribe too late,
06:21because the delay in momentum also has a bad impact
06:25for the business world and for the course itself.
06:29So if you look at the external or domestic factors,
06:33which are the key factors,
06:34why did you decide to maintain it at 6.25%?
06:38Our domestic factors, in the country itself,
06:43the inflation is quite maintained.
06:47So if the inflation is quite maintained,
06:49it means it is also timely to lower the flower tribe.
06:54It means it is appropriate to lower the flower tribe.
06:57Because if the inflation is high, then we will raise the flower tribe.
07:02But if the inflation is maintained,
07:04we will lower the flower tribe,
07:07so that the business world can move more.
07:10So our various industries,
07:12including those on the road, such as MSMEs,
07:15really hope that this flower will not go up.
07:18But on the other hand,
07:20compared to this pre-economy,
07:22externally, once the flower is lowered,
07:26there will be a capital outflow.
07:29So the capital in the country,
07:33especially in the capital market,
07:35will quickly leave
07:37because the flower is low here.
07:40And the impact is that the rupiah will be weaker.
07:44Those are the internal and external factors that make it difficult.
07:48Yes, that's it.
07:49A rather difficult decision,
07:50as it seems to be taken by the State Government.
07:53From the perspective of entrepreneurs,
07:55how do you see it, Mr. Redma,
07:57with our Central Bank's steps
07:59that still maintain the 6.25% interest rate?
08:02Is it in line with the hopes of the business world itself,
08:05or how?
08:08Yes, in fact,
08:10what we hope for is to lower the flower tribe.
08:16But we also see the last condition,
08:20where the pressure on rupiah is also very high.
08:25And that also has an impact on the business world.
08:28Because some of our raw materials are still imported.
08:32So I think we should be grateful for what the State Government has done.
08:35Not raising the flower tribe,
08:38we are already quite happy.
08:41With the same level,
08:47this is already quite good.
08:49But indeed, if we look ahead,
08:52this is not enough,
08:57if we want to be expansive,
09:00for a higher level of investment,
09:02this is indeed a bit difficult.
09:04Even in the current position,
09:07the pressure on rupiah with the flower tribe that does not fall,
09:11our cash flow position,
09:13the pressure is also heavier.
09:15So, fortunately, it didn't go up,
09:17because there is already a pressure from the exchange rate in the cash flow.
09:22If it went up yesterday,
09:24the pressure will be heavier.
09:26So we are quite grateful to the State Government.
09:28Not raising it is enough.
09:30Regarding the room for business expansion,
09:32you said earlier,
09:34does this have an impact on financing
09:36for the textile industry and textile products,
09:38with a 6.25% retention rate?
09:42Sorry, is it a bit unclear?
09:44Yes, if we talk about the 6.25% retention rate,
09:47does it have an impact on the financing sector?
09:50In other words, the loans given to the industry sector,
09:53the textile industry itself.
09:56Yes, of course.
09:58So, with this 6.25% position,
10:02we get around 10 to 10.5% in the landed trade.
10:09So, it's quite big.
10:12Especially because in the textile sector,
10:15the banking sector is still seen as a high-risk sector.
10:19This is also quite heavy.
10:21Especially with the pressure of the rupee like this,
10:26if we want to maintain the level of utilization,
10:30it must increase the cash flow.
10:33There must be additional credit to increase the cash flow.
10:36But with this condition,
10:38I think there will be many companies
10:40trying to maintain the level of utilization.
10:45So, the condition now,
10:48some companies will definitely reduce production,
10:53because the imported materials will be more expensive.
10:57On the other hand, for the stock,
10:59because of the exchange rate,
11:02then the rate, the buy rate,
11:06this is actually just a Camerhan pressure.
11:08The pressure has been very big since before.
11:12So, for companies that already have a very high stock,
11:16with conditions like this, the exchange rate like this,
11:19and it can't increase the cash flow,
11:21it will definitely stop first.
11:23This is already at the stage,
11:25stop the company first,
11:27see better development,
11:29when the stock starts to be thin,
11:31the exchange rate condition is better,
11:33the cash flow can be better,
11:35I think it will continue.
11:36We will discuss later about the movement of the exchange rate,
11:39because it is indeed one of the pillars
11:41to maintain the pace of the rupee depreciation.
11:44One of the instruments can also depend on the currency.
11:47But can it be like that?
11:49We will discuss later in the next segment.
11:51We will break first,
11:52Mr. Ritman and also Prof. Mantopo.
11:54We will be right back.
12:07Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
12:09In the next segment, we will provide you with data
12:12related to the quality of bank loans.
12:14This is the data for April 2024.
12:16You can watch the complete data on your television screen.
12:19As you can see, this is the NPL Gross Ratio,
12:23followed by the NPL Net Ratio in April.
12:27Compared to the previous month,
12:29the NPL Net Ratio is still the same.
12:32In April, compared to the previous month,
12:35there is an increase.
12:37For the NPL Gross Ratio,
12:39from 2.25% to 2.33%.
12:42Meanwhile, for the NPL Net Ratio,
12:45from 0.77% to 0.81%.
12:50Next, let's look at the Indonesian trading surplus
12:54in May 2024.
12:56Yesterday, BP reported US$2.93 billion
13:01in our trading surplus.
13:03The export was US$22.33 billion,
13:05and the import was US$19.4 billion.
13:08Each of them experienced a monthly increase,
13:11both in export and import.
13:13Next, let's look at our trading surplus
13:17from December 2023 to May 2024.
13:22In the last few months,
13:25the tendency has dropped.
13:27It reached its highest level in 2022.
13:33This is US$4.47 billion.
13:37If we look at the comparison,
13:40it should be US$4.47 billion in March 2024,
13:46US$3.56 billion in April 2024,
13:50and US$2.93 billion in May.
13:54Let's continue.
13:56This is a discussion with Prof. Hermanto Siregar,
13:59Rector of Burbanas University,
14:02and Mr. Retma Gita Wirawasta,
14:05APSFE.
14:08Prof. Hermanto,
14:10regarding the complaints or pressure
14:13experienced by the textile industry,
14:15as Mr. Retma said,
14:17it is more towards the movement of our currency exchange value,
14:20which continues to depreciate.
14:22Various efforts have been made,
14:24both fiscally and monetarily.
14:26But again, it is not able to withstand the pressure.
14:29What is actually happening to our Garuda currency right now, Prof?
14:35Indeed,
14:37the greatest weight of the exchange
14:40is influenced by external factors.
14:45So, there are internal factors,
14:50but not as much as the influence of the global economic dynamics.
14:55The global economic dynamics will definitely be directly responded to
15:00by a policy that we can say is definitive
15:05from the United States or the Federal Reserve.
15:09So, that's one.
15:11Then, although relatively small,
15:13the weight of the domestic influence,
15:16but it is still there.
15:18So, for example,
15:20if the economic conditions in the country are good,
15:26the competitiveness of our commodities,
15:30the real competitiveness, in the sense of efficiency in good production,
15:35because the productivity is indeed high,
15:38our products will definitely be absorbed by the export destination.
15:46Because of good competitiveness,
15:48because of productivity and quality.
15:51So, if we export a lot,
15:54we have quite a lot of deficit.
15:58When we bring back the deficit,
16:01it means that the demand for rupiah will increase,
16:05and the rupiah will be relatively stable.
16:08But in reality, our own export is also
16:12there is progress, but very slow.
16:15Maybe that's the only commodity.
16:18It means that there are a lot of raw commodities,
16:21there are also semi-finished ones.
16:23Our diversification is slow.
16:27So what?
16:28It's not the conditions of competitiveness, productivity,
16:31commodity-commodity export that can strengthen the exchange rate,
16:35but like the classic textbook says,
16:39our export efficiency is affected by the poor conditions.
16:46So, in this country,
16:49first, diversification from the commodity export,
16:54then we have to increase the efficiency, and so on.
16:58And second, still related to that,
17:01Mr. Redma also mentioned that
17:05in certain sectors, we still import the raw materials.
17:10Because our raw materials are imported,
17:13it means that we are also very dependent on the money
17:17that we will use to import.
17:20Which means that the demand for money is still high,
17:24which means that it is stronger or relatively stronger than us.
17:28If we can't produce that commodity in the country,
17:33whether we want it or not, we import it.
17:35But if the commodity can really be developed in the country,
17:39but we are still dependent on imports,
17:41this is not good.
17:44For example, cotton or yarn.
17:48Maybe 95% of the cotton, Mr. Redma, we import.
17:53Even though we can also plant it in several areas quite well.
17:57But our effort to get there,
17:59in the last 30 years, I don't see it.
18:02Maybe that's it, sir.
18:05Okay, but if you look at the BIRID instrument,
18:08as it is now used by, we know,
18:12the most effective monetary policy,
18:15and the value of the most active people too,
18:17to maintain our inflation,
18:19then also how the value of the Rupiah is moving.
18:22Besides, maybe the fiscal policies that are carried out by the government.
18:25But is it strong enough?
18:26In the end, it can become the backbone of 16,400.
18:30Do you see that the pressure will continue or not?
18:35The instrument of monetary policy that is proven to be the most effective,
18:41based on scientific studies,
18:44and also best practices,
18:47it is still a flower breed.
18:49We used to use monetary aggregates,
18:52so the circulating money,
18:54we tried to control it, but it was ineffective.
18:56Because more and more components of the circulating money
19:00cannot be controlled by the central bank.
19:03But if it's a flower breed,
19:05especially the flower breed is really regulated
19:08by the market players, banks, and non-bank institutions,
19:12then it is the most effective.
19:14So it means that from the sector monitor side,
19:18I think what has been done is quite good.
19:20The instrument is also quite good.
19:22There are changes in the name or characteristics of the flower breed,
19:27but it is still a flower breed.
19:28What does it mean?
19:29It means that we have to fix one side.
19:32If the monetary side is aggregated,
19:34the fiscal side, the monetary side,
19:36the monetary side is okay,
19:37but what about the fiscal side?
19:39This is what we have to fix.
19:41So, first of all, it's related to the exploitation of exports.
19:45Because if we talk about the course,
19:46in the end, the deficit and the deficit will go up and down
19:49based on the export-import.
19:51From the fiscal point of view,
19:52do we still need or need to tax everything that is exported?
19:57Even though we want to export, why do we have to tax it?
20:00Or we import.
20:02Import is not for consumption.
20:04Import is to produce something.
20:06Productivity.
20:08Do we need to make a high BM?
20:10He means the high one.
20:12So things like that.
20:14The second one is also related to the fiscal.
20:17The power of our own fiscal
20:19to push the market players in the country.
20:22How is that?
20:23Interesting.
20:24Mr. Ritma, then, what is the strategy of the business world?
20:26If it has been said earlier,
20:28it is quite vague by Prof. Herman,
20:30that, yes, do we really need to add
20:33as a tax,
20:35if the result is also to be able to provide income
20:38for the country,
20:39both import and export.
20:41If we talk about external products, Mr. Ritma.
20:46Actually, if we look at textiles,
20:49the export has also dropped.
20:51In 2023, it dropped to 10%
20:55because of the world's conditions.
20:57But if we look at the first quarter,
20:59the export has actually increased a little.
21:02That's because America started,
21:05if it's true, not yet,
21:07but America has made a lot of restrictions
21:09on Chinese products,
21:11including textiles.
21:12There is also a little room for us
21:14to increase exports.
21:17But totally,
21:19it hasn't been able to return our exports
21:22like before COVID-19.
21:26We are 13,
21:28we can't actually reach 15,
21:31even up to 20 billion USD exports
21:34if the treatment is correct.
21:36But this is the treatment,
21:38I think the government's PR
21:40has always been in favor of competition.
21:45On the other hand,
21:47the import is very large.
21:49If we look at the last five years,
21:52the import growth is much higher
21:54than the export growth.
21:56Even now,
21:58if we talk about import and export,
22:01the net is still positive in terms of value,
22:04around 2.9-2.8 billion USD.
22:06But in terms of volume, it's already negative.
22:08It's not even considered illegal.
22:10If we talk about illegal,
22:12it's already negative,
22:13this textile industry.
22:15So here,
22:17the main thing is that the government's import control
22:20is not effective.
22:22I mean, it's not effective because
22:24there is a difference in vision between ministries.
22:26On the one hand, the Ministry of Industry,
22:28because as Prof. Rector said,
22:32actually, textiles from Hulu to Helionic
22:34are already complete.
22:35In terms of industry, it's already complete.
22:37Industry, but there are other sectors
22:39that are empty.
22:41This is just the import regulation
22:43between industry, trade, finance,
22:46and coordinated by the Ministry of Economy.
22:48With the incident yesterday,
22:50for example, the 3.6 percentage,
22:52it keeps changing.
22:53It means that the government doesn't have
22:55the same vision between ministries
22:57to make improvements in terms of trade.
23:01So this is also from the side,
23:03not only in our sector,
23:04but in other sectors as well.
23:06When this happened,
23:07everything was slowed down.
23:09Textiles were also slowed down.
23:11Investments were slowed down,
23:13production was slowed down,
23:14utilization was reduced.
23:16In the end, the situation is the same as now.
23:18What solutions are expected from entrepreneurs?
23:21Then maybe we ask Prof. Ferman,
23:23what will it be like later?
23:24Does it mean from the other side,
23:27for example, if the monitor
23:28becomes one of its branches,
23:30then does it need harmonization there?
23:32We will discuss later in the next segment.
23:34We will be back in a moment.
23:35And viewers, stay with us.
23:54Thank you for joining us.
23:56It's interesting if we look at it like that.
23:58One of the policies of the Indonesian Central Bank
24:01which is expected to be one of the defense pillars
24:04also for the national economy,
24:05of course, to maintain inflation rate,
24:07then how about the movement of European values.
24:10Now, Prof. Ferman,
24:11maybe you can explain again,
24:12if this becomes one of the branches,
24:14then how about other branches
24:17or other instruments,
24:18as you said earlier,
24:20there are still some,
24:22maybe some policies
24:24or disintegration that needs to be harmonized,
24:27or how about this?
24:29Yes, from the coordination issue
24:33that was mentioned earlier,
24:35by Prof. Rehman,
24:37it is still quite a difficult task.
24:39So, without coordination,
24:43the consequence is lagging
24:45or a long time
24:48for policy makers
24:51to take the optimal policy.
24:53So, it will run into inefficiency later.
24:58Then the second one is also a policy issue.
25:02So, we were quite grateful
25:07for the non-increase of the flower rate,
25:09which means the flower rate is maintained.
25:11If the condition is like that,
25:14the tax will be increased.
25:16Because the first one has tried to survive,
25:18but the other one,
25:20on the fiscal side,
25:21the minimum tax must remain.
25:25Even if it can be reduced.
25:28Indeed, we understand that
25:31the tax target is not met.
25:34But actually, the tax target is on one side.
25:38On the other side, there is also
25:40the cost of collecting tax.
25:42So, the cost of collecting tax
25:50can still be suppressed.
25:52Then, I think there are still many inefficiencies
25:55that are suppressed.
25:57Which means, the tax target that has not been reached,
26:00it's okay on one side.
26:02But by eliminating inefficiencies,
26:07it makes it possible to maintain the tax rate.
26:11Even if certain sectors become dependent,
26:15the tax rate is reduced.
26:17This will make the real sector
26:20that becomes dependent,
26:22it will be able to suppress others.
26:24So, overall,
26:26even though the condition is like that,
26:28it will still be quite good.
26:30But if it's double-squished,
26:32as we said earlier,
26:33if one side makes it difficult,
26:36the other side will also increase the tax rate.
26:39This will make the business world difficult.
26:42In the end, the tax target will not be reached.
26:47Because the revenue will be small in the company.
26:50Okay, good, Prof.
26:51Lastly, how do you expect the business owners
26:54to cope with the current conditions?
26:56There is a lot of pressure, if you say so.
26:59Is it one of the government policies
27:02from the other side?
27:04If the BIRA has been grateful,
27:06you said earlier that it was held at 6.25,
27:08is there any other policy that is expected
27:10from business world friends?
27:12Yes, indeed, this is for us,
27:16if we can get tax incentives,
27:18we are a bit grateful.
27:19But on the other hand,
27:20the important thing is not to go up first.
27:22Even if we don't get incentives
27:24in terms of taxation,
27:25the important thing is not to go up first.
27:26Because if it goes up,
27:27it will be an additional pressure.
27:29Secondly, if we look at the export,
27:32the condition is still...
27:36Export, on the demand side,
27:38on the geopolitical side,
27:40there is no certainty yet.
27:42So, the only way is in the domestic market.
27:45So, we reduce it from the import side.
27:47So, we press from the import side.
27:49From the import side,
27:50of course, there must be a deeper study.
27:53This deeper study,
27:55any sector,
27:57any goods that we can make,
27:59it doesn't need to be imported.
28:01But if we can't make it yet,
28:03and it's for the interest of the industry,
28:05I think we can import it.
28:07But this requires control.
28:09This control, as I said earlier,
28:11is not yet agreed between the ministries.
28:14Whereas, when we do the import control,
28:18to reduce the pressure of the export deficit,
28:22the government doesn't need to do anything.
28:24The government doesn't lose...
28:27doesn't lose tax revenue,
28:30even can get additional tax
28:32when the domestic industry
28:34can work well again.
28:38The government doesn't just need policy
28:41and policy certainty,
28:43and implementation of the right policy.
28:46So, to protect the domestic market,
28:48by the import control.
28:51If this is done, I think we can be healthy.
28:55Because any incentive given
28:57when the market is not there,
28:59it will actually be useless.
29:01But when the market is given,
29:03especially the domestic market,
29:06of course, we can work optimally.
29:08Of course, the government will also get tax revenue
29:12from domestic work.
29:15Okay, that's it.
29:16I hope from businessmen,
29:17how to coordinate, integrate,
29:19policy when it's not high,
29:21then how,
29:22for example, there was a tax reduction or incentive,
29:25but the important thing is to build the market itself in the country.
29:29So, in the end, there will be additional state revenue there.
29:32Okay, Prof. Hermanto, thank you very much
29:34for your time and sharing
29:36to the audience.
29:37Mr. Retma, thank you also for the insert
29:39that you have delivered,
29:40an update from the industry itself,
29:42what is the current condition like?
29:43See you again and good health, Prof. and Mr. Retma.
29:47Thank you.
29:48Thank you, Prof.
29:49Thank you, Mas.
29:50Yes.
29:51Okay, audience, don't leave your seat,
29:53because we will be back in a moment
29:55with another interesting topic
29:56related to online loans that have been popularized
29:58in 2024.
30:06Transcription by ESO. Translation by —