Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani Indrawati menyatakan, Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2024 mengalami defisit sebesar Rp507,8 triliun. Jumlah itu setara 2,29% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).
Sri Mulyani mengklaim, angka defisit APBN tersebut masih terkendali di tengah gejolak global yang terjadi di sepanjang 2024. Bendahara negara ini juga menyebut, kinerja APBN di 2024 akan menjadi modal yang kuat bagi APBN di 2025.
Menkeu memaparkan, realisasi sementara pendapatan negara sepanjang 2024 sebesar Rp2.842,5 triliun, atau tumbuh 2,1% secara tahunan. Namun total penerimaan pajak mencapai Rp 1.932,4 triliun atau 97,2% dari target yang ditetapkan sebesar Rp 1.988,9 triliun.
Wakil Menteri keuangan Anggito Abimanyu menyebut, salah satu unsur penerimaan pajak yakni penerimaan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) sektor migas tercatat hanya mencapai Rp 65,1 triliun, atau mengalami penurunan 5,3% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.
Anggito mengungkapkan, meskipun ada beberapa sektor yang mengalami penurunan, kinerja penerimaan pajak di semester II-2024 menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif. Seiring dengan pemulihan ekonomi global dan peningkatan harga komoditas yang lebih stabil.
Sri Mulyani mengklaim, angka defisit APBN tersebut masih terkendali di tengah gejolak global yang terjadi di sepanjang 2024. Bendahara negara ini juga menyebut, kinerja APBN di 2024 akan menjadi modal yang kuat bagi APBN di 2025.
Menkeu memaparkan, realisasi sementara pendapatan negara sepanjang 2024 sebesar Rp2.842,5 triliun, atau tumbuh 2,1% secara tahunan. Namun total penerimaan pajak mencapai Rp 1.932,4 triliun atau 97,2% dari target yang ditetapkan sebesar Rp 1.988,9 triliun.
Wakil Menteri keuangan Anggito Abimanyu menyebut, salah satu unsur penerimaan pajak yakni penerimaan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) sektor migas tercatat hanya mencapai Rp 65,1 triliun, atau mengalami penurunan 5,3% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.
Anggito mengungkapkan, meskipun ada beberapa sektor yang mengalami penurunan, kinerja penerimaan pajak di semester II-2024 menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif. Seiring dengan pemulihan ekonomi global dan peningkatan harga komoditas yang lebih stabil.
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TVTranscript
00:00The Ministry of Finance estimates that the commodity price movement has been moderated and has had an impact on state receivables throughout the year 2024.
00:23Despite this, the Minister of Finance said that state receivables have still grown amid a surge in commodity prices and global economy last year.
00:35The Ministry of Finance estimates that the commodity price movement has been moderated and has had an impact on state receivables throughout the year 2024.
00:43This is reflected in the realization of state revenues and state spending in 2024.
00:49The Minister of Finance, Anggito Abimanyu, said that the income tax receivables or PPH Sektor Migas only reached 65.1 trillion rupiah in 2024.
00:59The realization experienced a 5.3% decrease compared to the previous year.
01:05However, if we look at the physical PPH, it is still significantly contracted.
01:11This is due to the decline in profitability of mining sectors, especially coal and nickel, and also palm oil, which is affected by the volatility in commodity prices.
01:31Next, this is a picture of the conditions on our commodity side.
01:41In general, the red zone, the price of nickel, natural gas, coal, and crude oil fell, and the price of CPO rose year on year.
01:56However, if we look at the quarter by quarter, it is different, especially the first, second, and third quarters, which are still contracted, and then the fourth quarter, which shows a positive side.
02:07Anggito added that although there are several sectors that have experienced a decrease, the income tax receivables in the second semester of 2024 showed positive development,
02:17in line with the recovery of the global economy and the increase in the price of commodities that are more stable.
02:22There was a total tax receivables throughout 2024 reached Rp. 1,932.4 trillion or 97.2% of the target set at Rp. 1,988.9 trillion.
02:37Nevertheless, this realization is recorded to experience a 3.5% increase compared to the tax receivables in 2023.
02:52Yes, Mr. Mirso, to discuss our topic this time, the resilience of state receivables in the midst of a global economic downturn, we have been connected via Zoom with Professor Didin S. Damanhuri.
03:01He is an in-depth senior economist. Hello, Prof. Didin, how are you?
03:05Hello, Mr. Pras. Good, good. Happy New Year.
03:09Yes, happy New Year too, Prof. Didin. Thank you for the opportunity.
03:13And before we discuss further, we will first review the state receivables in the course of 2024, which has been reached Rp. 2,842.5 trillion or 101% of the target.
03:29What do you think, Prof?
03:31Yes, it surpassed the target because the non-tax rate rose, but the tax rate fell below the target.
03:48So it's pretty good, almost 4% below the target.
03:56So I think this must be taken seriously because the tax increase that is not in line with the target is not just about external factors, but also global geopolitical factors and unprofitable commodity prices.
04:23I think in domestic factors, we must add that there is a decrease in the purchasing power of the public in general, both middle and low.
04:36Okay.
04:37Then the manufacturing industry is also contracting from the purchasing manager index, which is also below 50, around 7-8.
04:53So it means that there is a decrease in domestic economic performance that affects the tax increase that is not in line with the target.
05:05Okay.
05:06So I think this must be taken seriously because there is even more.
05:16Okay.
05:44Okay.
06:14Okay.
06:23So if you say this is one of the fundamental issues, if we talk about the internal economic conditions, there is a decrease in the purchasing power of the public, the middle class is also experiencing a decrease,
06:34then you see that global pressure is also still limited in relation to Indonesia's export industry.
06:39So how do you see, with achievements from the country's acceptance in 2024, can it be a strong capital in 2025, Prof?
06:50Yes, with the global situation that is still pressing on the national economy, as well as various conditions that remain due to COVID-19, due to various problems in the country,
07:10this achievement is still quite good.
07:12Okay.
07:13The capital that can be collected is even better, especially in improving institutional reform.
07:23In my opinion, this taxation is far from over, with very high leaks.
07:32So there are two.
07:33One is the tax obligation that should pay the tax has not yet been covered by around 40%.
07:41But even if it comes in, the leaks are high.
07:46If the IMF says 40%.
07:49Okay.
07:50What is it called?
07:51At least one of the president's advisers said there were 300 trillion.
07:59What?
08:01The ones that are leaking, etc.
08:03Which are not included in the country's tax.
08:06So I think the challenge from the country's acceptance sector is very crucial.
08:17It must be done in a very serious way.
08:20Institutional reform.
08:22That's it.
08:23So what should be done if we talk about maintaining the resilience of our country's acceptance in 2025?
08:32I remember the challenge was quite basic, but it's still a work that hasn't been completed yet, Prof.
08:39Yes.
08:40Indeed, we have seen efforts in that direction.
08:43For example, in terms of usage.
08:47Yes.
08:48That according to the release, there are 3.6 trillion, for example, savings due to overseas travel, both domestic and overseas, which can be achieved.
09:02Yes.
09:03But that's not enough.
09:05Because if we refer to the tax obligation that hasn't paid the tax, if it's 40%, the value can be around 700 trillion.
09:21It hasn't leaked yet.
09:23I also have a student who happens to be one of the second echelons of the Ministry of Taxation.
09:30According to the Ministry of Taxation, this tax has a very high leakage, around 30%.
09:38According to the IMF, it's 40%.
09:40This must be done in a very serious way.
09:45For example, the Ministry of Taxation must be implemented so that it can be more concentrated.
09:57Then a major reform will be carried out.
10:00How the potential tax hasn't been paid yet, intensified, and then the leakage, whether it's tax obligation, corruption, or inefficiency.
10:18It must be done very seriously.
10:21But around 30-40% leakage.
10:25Yes, and actually we can give appreciation for the various efforts that have been made by the government, the Ministry of Finance, especially the Tax Administration,
10:33to continue to look for new tax obligations.
10:35There was intensification, extensification.
10:37What will it be like? We will discuss the effectiveness in the next segment, Prof.
10:41We will take a break for a while.
10:42And Mr. Mirza, we will be right back with the next episode of Pariwara.
10:55Thank you for joining us in Market Review, Mr. Mirza.
11:06And here we present the data for you.
11:08Related to state income, we will summarize from 2018 to 2025.
11:16As you can see on the screen, the trend of state income has started to increase.
11:24This year, it has been announced that there is Rp 2,842.5 trillion.
11:30Then the target in 2025 is Rp 3,005.1 trillion.
11:36Meanwhile, what about the APBN deficit against the GDP?
11:40As you can see, in 2020, it was 6.14%.
11:45Then it continued to decline until 2023 at 1.65% against the GDP.
11:50And the trend started to rise again until 2024 at 2.29%.
11:55And the target in 2025 in the APBN is 2.53% against the GDP.
12:02Okay, we will continue the discussion with Prof. Didinda Manhuri, Senior Economist at Indef.
12:08Professor, we will go back to some of the data that have been presented.
12:12One of the sources of state income in Indonesia is from the tax sector.
12:18Meanwhile, in 2024, it only reached 97.2%.
12:23What are the challenges from the government's side in terms of tax receivables?
12:27What should be tackled immediately?
12:29What bottlenecks should be broken in terms of state receivables from the tax sector?
12:37Yes, that's what I said. There must be an institutional breakthrough.
12:42So, I agree that the Ministry of State Receivables must be implemented immediately
12:48so that it is more concentrated with this ministry
12:53where it reforms the institution
12:59so that the tax receivables that have not yet been covered, around 40%, can be implemented immediately.
13:09Imagine if only 40% of the tax receivables have not yet been covered.
13:13It is not yet reformed.
13:18What is the nature of the leak?
13:20Is it a leak?
13:22There is a tax embezzlement.
13:24According to the President, there are 300 trillion.
13:28Then, there is inefficiency in management.
13:32There is also corruption, which is quite big.
13:37That has been reported.
13:39So, this institutional breakthrough is urgent.
13:44Why?
13:45Because the government is trying to change the orientation of development
13:53which is more economic for the people.
13:56For example, yesterday, there was an embezzlement of lunch money.
14:02Around Rp. 11 million.
14:05The target is around Rp. 37 million and so on.
14:09This requires financing.
14:11But there is also an impact
14:14where this will increase the purchasing power of the lower class.
14:18That's good.
14:19Because there was a rule that the middle class and the lower class will be taxed.
14:26But it will also be affected by the productivity of the economic actors.
14:33There was a contraction of the manufacturing industry.
14:39There are two answers from the government that need to be done.
14:43But the time lag is the hillarization.
14:46So, hillarization is not only for nickel, but also for agro-maritime, mining, and so on.
14:55This needs to be done immediately.
14:58But it's a time lag.
14:59But it will be more effective if there is an incentive and disincentive.
15:04The existing manufacturing industry that declined yesterday
15:09is affected by global geopolitics
15:14or the economic situation of neighboring countries.
15:18But the domestic market is still very wide.
15:22Not yet in ASEAN.
15:24It was hit by China, the United States, and Europe.
15:29But in ASEAN.
15:30This is not yet in the region.
15:32Not yet in the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America.
15:37So, the government needs to push this industry
15:44so that this manufacturing industry that is very involved in big business
15:50needs to be taken very seriously.
15:53And it can be done right now.
15:55Right now.
15:56So that it can stimulate economic growth
16:00and create job opportunities.
16:03But the tax rate will also increase.
16:07In a more significant way.
16:09Prof. Didin.
16:10So, how about the effort that we know,
16:13PPN 12%, right?
16:14Too many products and services.
16:16Then, finally, it's more restricted to luxury goods.
16:20How do you see this, Prof?
16:22Will this reduce or what?
16:24Yes.
16:25Indeed, in the near future,
16:28the target of Rp. 75 trillion will only be around Rp. 4 trillion.
16:32Because it's only luxury goods.
16:34But, don't forget,
16:36it helps the purchasing power to not go down.
16:43Okay.
16:44In addition to the people's programs,
16:48whether it's food,
16:50whether it's food for the future,
16:54and so on.
16:56So, the compensation in my calculation will be much greater
17:03than in the next year.
17:07So, PPN 12% will be canceled.
17:12For the existing ones,
17:14the ones that were not paid,
17:15will still not be paid.
17:16The 11% will still be the 11%.
17:1912% only to those that have been categorized
17:24as luxury goods.
17:25The house alone is over Rp. 30 billion, for example.
17:29So, there won't be an increase in PPN 12%
17:34as indicated by that.
17:36This is an obstacle where the purchasing power won't go down.
17:40Plus, with the programs that are people-driven,
17:44agriculture, agro-maritime in general,
17:47and then the future resources,
17:50the energy resources,
17:51which the main players should be the farmers.
17:57So, this will increase the purchasing power
18:00that can compensate for the loss of the potential
18:04of not having 12% PPN.
18:07In my opinion, it will be much higher.
18:10And more quality,
18:12plus waiting for the opportunity to contribute
18:16to achieving higher growth.
18:20Okay.
18:21Up to 18%, but with quality.
18:25Prof. Didin, what about the target of Rp. 3 trillion
18:28for our country's acceptance in 2025?
18:31Do you see the potential?
18:33Can it be achieved?
18:35Or is there another challenge
18:38related to the various policies that still need to be boosted
18:42in terms of intensification,
18:44extensification,
18:45reformation of the tax sector, and so on?
18:48In my opinion,
18:52I heard that after three months,
18:55there will be a reshuffle.
18:57Then there will be a Ministry of State Development.
19:00So, immediately.
19:01It will be approved by the new ministry
19:05so that those who have not yet
19:09entered the tax policy
19:11and have not yet been covered by the Ministry of State Development,
19:15will be immediately pursued
19:17with more effective and efficient apparatus.
19:20Then, there will be a discussion.
19:22It can also be done.
19:23Plus, programs that involve people-driven taxis.
19:27Plus, where the manufacturing industry
19:31that has been in contact for a long time,
19:33with the vibe of the domestic market
19:38which is actually not bad,
19:41it can be covered.
19:43How is the potential of consumers
19:47between this area and Pacung,
19:50to become customers
19:54or consumers of the manufacturing industry
19:56who want to make a profit.
19:58Plus, new markets
20:01that have been the manufacturing industry
20:05generally to countries
20:08that traditionally
20:10we have not yet,
20:12various countries in Asia that have not yet
20:14in ASEAN, ASEAN intensification
20:16plus the Middle East and Africa, Latin America.
20:19Okay.
20:20Yes, there are still a lot of ways to go to Rome
20:24as a profit that needs to be done by the government
20:26when it is difficult to increase again
20:28from the side of tax receivables
20:30or state receivables in general.
20:33We just have to see
20:35what policies will be proposed by the government
20:39to pursue the target of 3 trillion
20:41then there is also an 8% economic growth
20:44in the coming years.
20:45Okay.
20:46Prof. Dirin, thank you very much for your time,
20:48sharing information and analysis
20:50that you have given to Prof. Mirsa.
20:52Congratulations on continuing your activities
20:54until we meet again, Prof.
20:55Stay healthy.
20:56You too.
20:59Okay, Prof. Mirsa,
21:00I have been with you for an hour in the market review
21:02and continue to share your information
21:04only on IDX channel,
21:06Your Transporty and Comprehensive Investment Reference.
21:09Because the matter of the future must move forward,
21:11I am a stock investor.
21:13I am Prasetyo Wibowo
21:15and all the staff on duty.
21:17Goodbye.
21:19See you.