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00:00And the opener in Arrowhead, KC opens on that flat number of three, a field goal, 46 and
00:11a half is the over under.
00:14It is the earliest line for week number one of this 2024 NFL campaign.
00:19Hey, if the Chiefs don't make a ton of mistakes, probably should they win their opening game
00:23this year?
00:24Probably so.
00:25But I do think it's an even line out there, basically giving the Kansas City Chiefs home
00:28field advantage with those three points and letting it play out.
00:31Total sits at 46 and a half.
00:32And let's just say we're all going to get warm weather and good conditions on opening
00:35night.
00:36I always love the way the Baltimore Ravens come into the regular season because they're
00:39one of the few teams here, Ben, we can agree on that take the preseason seriously, which
00:44puts them in a great mindset by the time they wake up, I should say, on that Thursday night,
00:49September 5th.
00:50I do expect the Ravens to give up right now.
00:52I'll probably take the plus three points at this point if we're angling towards that.
00:56I just think it's an even matchup here.
00:58I'll take the points opening night and I do expect a great performance because the Ravens
01:01are usually great performers in the regular season.
01:05I mean, DRS, when you look at the numbers under John Harbaugh, who has been the head
01:09coach in Baltimore since 2008, that's now 16 seasons, year 17 on the horizon.
01:16It's a similar story for Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the two bitter rivals in the AFC North.
01:21The Steelers, a 62.2% cover percentage as an underdog in that span since 08.
01:27That was year two of the Mike Tomlin era, the debut year of John Harbaugh, 2008, 61.8%
01:35cover percentage, 55, 34, and six against the spread as an underdog in the last 16 years.
01:42Who could fault you taking that flat number of three at this moment line open to two and
01:47a half in favor of Kansas City.
01:50We have already seen some movement.
01:53Now Donnie, we looked at the Superbowl 59 odds and you said something on the Ravens
01:58that if they couldn't get past Kansas City a year ago, how are you going to bet them
02:03to do that this time around?
02:05They had home field advantage as the number one seed in the AFC, the best regular season
02:10record in the entirety of the NFL a year ago at 13 and four.
02:15But you said you would expect the Ravens to probably be in contention for that top
02:20spot again.
02:21So you expect no hangover in Baltimore then looking at the Ravens team win total of 10
02:26and a half.
02:27Yeah.
02:28And they should be ramped up too, because let's just take a look at that 10 and a half
02:30and also equate it to opening day.
02:32The one thing I do love is I think we can all agree, like for me heading into that game
02:37last year in the playoffs was boy, if they just stick to their game plan for Baltimore,
02:42they have such an advantage over Kansas City and they didn't do that, which was so mind
02:45boggling that I hope this off season goes, you know what guys, let's just bring our normal
02:49game plan into game number one and see what happens.
02:52And I think the win, which is so hard because sometimes dealing with Lamar Jackson on a
02:56week to week basis in the NFL, when so many things are swirling around so many different
02:59franchises, it's tough to get ahold of.
03:01But when you have that one singular focus with that one game on the week, you have to
03:05worry about the game after it to focus on Lamar Jackson.
03:07A lot of teams have done very well against Lamar Jackson in the playoffs.
03:11So I just take a look at week number one.
03:12Is there going to be a quarterback that's going to be faster on his feet?
03:15And I heard, you know, hey, Lamar Jackson lost a couple pounds here in the offseason.
03:19He's going to look like an absolute lightning bug out there in week number one.
03:23I expect a good performance and again, the ten and a half, even though that division
03:27is so tough from top to bottom, talking about the AFC North.
03:30I still think at the end of the day, they're the best team in that division, which in order
03:34to win that division, you're going to need to have 11 wins.
03:37That's a really good division.
03:38So I like their win total over and I like them opening night here in the NFL.