2024 College Football Preview: Michigan, Ohio State & Penn State
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00:00We start with one of the big two of the new Power Four.
00:07That would be the Big Ten Conference.
00:10There are some familiar programs, but of course the addition of the four West Coast newcomers
00:14in USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington.
00:18But Joe, we start our conversation by looking at those conference championship odds.
00:23Ohio State plus 140.
00:25The Buckeyes will enter this season as the favorites to win the Big Ten, followed by
00:29Oregon at plus 210, then Penn State at plus 550, and the three-time Big Ten champions
00:36in the last three college football seasons and the reigning national title winners.
00:40That would be the Maize and Blue, the Michigan Wolverines, out of Ann Arbor at plus 650.
00:46Changes in the Big Ten, sweeping changes in Ann Arbor this offseason after getting back
00:51to the mountaintop for the first time since 1997.
00:55Jim Harbaugh, the head coach, no longer there.
00:58He's in the National Football League coaching the Chargers.
01:00J.J. McCarthy, the winningest quarterback in the last 50 years in CFP.
01:05He's in the NFL as well with the Minnesota Vikings.
01:08Blake Korob, who has been a certified touchdown scorer each and every week, he's also in the
01:12NFL.
01:13All to say, so many changes for the Wolverines this year, and we see that reflected in their
01:18prices.
01:19No longer the favorites to win the Big Ten.
01:21It's got a lot of pressure on Sherome Moore.
01:22Now in his two interim starts, he did step up.
01:25He got the victories over Penn State and Maryland, respectively.
01:28In both of those games, they rushed the Rock for 84 attempts in both of those ballgames,
01:33grounded it out, and relied on the defense.
01:36Didn't really ask a lot out of J.J. McCarthy.
01:39Last year, Michigan averaged 165 rushing yards per game.
01:42Why is that important?
01:44Because the previous two seasons, they were over 200.
01:46So they relied on the rushing attack the previous two seasons much more than they did last year,
01:52and they progressed under J.J. McCarthy.
01:54Obviously two starters come back, but Donovan Edwards and that offensive liner there, they
01:58do square off against Texas in terms of week number two.
02:02They're already three and a half point dogs in that matchup.
02:05They do have a 22 game home winning streak, so it's not going to be easy for Texas.
02:09I think this team right now, on paper, potentially nine and three, ten and two, but that might
02:15be enough to get them into the college football playoffs.
02:17That's a great point.
02:18Nine and a half is the win total for the Michigan Wolverines, who were undefeated a year ago
02:23in their conquest of a national championship.
02:26But even if they finish nine and three, given the schedule, given where the Big Ten stands
02:31as a conference as a whole, it does not eliminate the Wolverines from college football playoff
02:36contention.
02:37The new quarterback battle this summer in Ann Arbor, the veteran Jack Tuttle, who came
02:41over from Indiana a few seasons ago, has Big Ten experience, and Alex Orji as well, more
02:47of an athletic style quarterback who can run the rock like Donovan Edwards, and the good
02:52thing for Michigan, Sherron Moore, the O.C., the offensive line coach, that consistency
02:57will remain.
02:58Michigan had 13 players drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft.
03:02Any time that happens, of course, there will be a ton of turnover.
03:06So the Wolverines, the reigning national champs, still one of the ten best prices to win the
03:10national title this season.
03:12Ohio State saw their most bitter rival win a national title and said to themselves, we
03:17are never going to let that happen ever again, especially in the microcosm, Joe, that was
03:25last year, the signed stealing scandal with Connor Stallions in Ann Arbor, and a lot of
03:30the speculation around the rivalry and what led to that information even being leaked.
03:36A lot of pressure on Ryan Day entering 2024 in Columbus.
03:40He's got a new offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly.
03:43He's got a new quarterback, the transfer from Kansas State, Will Howard.
03:46He's got a new shiny running back in the backfield with Quenshaun Judkins from Ole
03:50Miss, and so much wide receiver talent returns, along with so much talent on the defensive
03:55side of the football, and the SEC freshman of the year from Alabama, Caleb Downs.
03:59All to say, Ohio State is fully in in its national championship, or boss.
04:03No excuses this year.
04:05Everything is in place for Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes to not just make the college
04:09football playoff and win a Big Ten championship, but to win it all.
04:13They are one of the frontrunners.
04:14Can they gel as an offensive unit?
04:16That remains to be seen when you have so many moving parts.
04:19Will Howard, you have Quenshaun Judkins, you have Chip Kelly.
04:22Can it meld in just one season?
04:25Because again, the pressure's there for Ryan Day.
04:27He failed to step up a couple of years ago against Georgia in the college football playoff
04:31game, did not make second half adjustments.
04:34When you look at Will Howard as well, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, only 61% completion percentage.
04:41Not as prolific as CJ Stroud a couple years ago.
04:44We have to see how this plays out.
04:46The pressure is on and they square off in Eugene week number two.
04:49I still give the inside edge though, Ben, to Oregon in terms of the big picture, but
04:54there's no doubt that Ohio State's going to make the playoff.
04:57Four teams, only four, around the country in college football have a win total of 10.5.
05:02Only Ohio State and Georgia have juice on the over.
05:05The Buckeyes the best number, minus 150 to the over of 10 and a hook.
05:10Penn State is thankful for conference realignment.
05:13Why?
05:14Because divisions are done in the big 10.
05:16No longer the East versus the West and for the Nittany Lions, no longer having to look
05:21up at the top of the East division and see Ohio State and Michigan.
05:25Because the last two regular seasons, Penn State against everybody not named Ohio State
05:29and Michigan, a perfect 20 and 0.
05:32Against the Buckeyes and the Wolverines, 0 and 4.
05:34The win total 9.5 for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley this year, Joe.
05:39And the over has the heavy juice.
05:41What is your expectation for Penn State this season?
05:44I think they could be a nine-win football team, but in their three losses last year
05:47to Michigan, Ohio State and Ole Miss, Drew Aller under 50% completion percentage.
05:52How could I buy into Penn State big picture if their quarterback is not efficient?
05:57That's a cause of concern.
05:58So right now, I think they're 9-3 overall.
06:01If Drew Aller starts fast, maybe I change my assessment, but the pressure's on right
06:05now in Happy Valley.
06:07Pressure is highly on Drew Aller, the Prince that was promised at the quarterback spot
06:12who had a disappointing first year as the starter in State College.
06:16But the good news for Penn State, they only play Ohio State.
06:20They don't have Michigan.
06:21Road trips to USC and Camp Randall to take on Wisconsin.
06:25But you see the minus 145 price for the Nittany Lions to reach the college football playoff.
06:30That is the expectation.
06:33That is what they will be judged by in terms of their level of success in 2024.